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Friday, November 6, 2015

FIFA Ranking: December 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the December 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)



1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

07/Nov Hong Kong - Myanmar 1 (Friendly)
07/Nov Vanuatu - Fiji X (Friendly)
09/Nov Palestine - Saudi Arabia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
10/Nov Vanuatu - Fiji X (Friendly)
11/Nov Estonia - Georgia 1 (Friendly)
11/Nov Jordan - Malta 1 (Friendly)
11/Nov Mozambique - Gabon X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Sudan - Zambia X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Afghanistan - Cambodia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Andorra - St. Kitts and Nevis 2 (Friendly)
12/Nov Argentina - Brazil 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Australia - Kyrgyzstan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Benin - Burkina Faso X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Bolivia - Venezuela X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Burundi - Congo DR X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Chile - Colombia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov China PR - Bhutan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Ecuador - Uruguay X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov FYR Macedonia - Montenegro X (Friendly)
12/Nov India - Guam 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Iran - Turkmenistan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Korea Republic - Myanmar 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Lebanon - Laos 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Maldives - Hong Kong X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Morocco - Equatorial Guinea 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Namibia - Guinea X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Norway - Hungary 1 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Nov Oman - New Zealand 1 (Friendly)
12/Nov Palestine - Malaysia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Philippines - Yemen 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Singapore - Japan 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Tajikistan - Bangladesh 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Thailand - Chinese Taipei 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Togo - Uganda X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov United Arab Emirates - Timor-Leste 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Uzbekistan - Korea DPR 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Angola - South Africa X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Belgium - Italy 1 (Friendly)
13/Nov Bosnia and Herzegovina - Republic of Ireland 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Nov Canada - Honduras X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Comoros - Ghana 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Costa Rica - Haiti 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Czech Republic - Serbia 1 (Friendly)
13/Nov France - Germany X (Friendly)
13/Nov Guatemala - Trinidad and Tobago X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Jamaica - Panama X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Kenya - Cape Verde Islands X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Liberia - Côte d'Ivoire 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Libya - Rwanda X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Luxembourg - Greece 2 (Friendly)
13/Nov Madagascar - Senegal 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Mauritania - Tunisia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Mexico - El Salvador 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Niger - Cameroon 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Northern Ireland - Latvia 1 (Friendly)
13/Nov Peru - Paraguay 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Poland - Iceland 1 (Friendly)
13/Nov Qatar - Turkey 2 (Friendly)
13/Nov Slovakia - Switzerland X (Friendly)
13/Nov Spain - England 1 (Friendly)
13/Nov Swaziland - Nigeria 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov USA - St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Wales - Netherlands 2 (Friendly)
14/Nov Botswana - Mali 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Nov Chad - Egypt 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Nov Ethiopia - Congo X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Nov Gabon - Mozambique 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Nov Hong Kong - Macau 1 (Friendly)
14/Nov Russia - Portugal X (Friendly)
14/Nov Sweden - Denmark 1 (Continental Qualifier)
14/Nov Tanzania - Algeria 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
14/Nov Ukraine - Slovenia 1 (Continental Qualifier)
15/Nov Congo DR - Burundi 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Equatorial Guinea - Morocco 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Guinea - Namibia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Hungary - Norway X (Continental Qualifier)
15/Nov Uganda - Togo 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Zambia - Sudan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
16/Nov Republic of Ireland - Bosnia and Herzegovina X (Continental Qualifier)
17/Nov Algeria - Tanzania 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Austria - Switzerland 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Azerbaijan - Moldova 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Bangladesh - Australia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Belgium - Spain X (Friendly)
17/Nov Bhutan - Qatar 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Brazil - Peru 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Burkina Faso - Benin 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Cambodia - Japan 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Cameroon - Niger 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Cape Verde Islands - Kenya 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Chinese Taipei - Iraq 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Colombia - Argentina X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Congo - Ethiopia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Côte d'Ivoire - Liberia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Denmark - Sweden X (Continental Qualifier)
17/Nov Egypt - Chad 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov El Salvador - Canada X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov England - France 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Estonia - St. Kitts and Nevis 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov FYR Macedonia - Lebanon 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Germany - Netherlands 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Ghana - Comoros 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Guam - Iran 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Haiti - Jamaica X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Honduras - Mexico 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Hong Kong - China PR 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Italy - Romania 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Korea DPR - Bahrain 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Kyrgyzstan - Jordan 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Laos - Korea Republic 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Luxembourg - Portugal 2 (Friendly)
17/Nov Malaysia - United Arab Emirates 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Mali - Botswana 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Myanmar - Kuwait 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Nigeria - Swaziland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Panama - Costa Rica X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Paraguay - Bolivia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Poland - Czech Republic 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Russia - Croatia 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Rwanda - Libya X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Senegal - Madagascar 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Singapore - Syria 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Slovakia - Iceland 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Slovenia - Ukraine 2 (Continental Qualifier)
17/Nov South Africa - Angola 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Guatemala 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Timor-Leste - Saudi Arabia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Trinidad and Tobago - USA X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Tunisia - Mauritania 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Turkey - Greece 1 (Friendly)
17/Nov Turkmenistan - Oman 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Uruguay - Chile X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Venezuela - Ecuador 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
17/Nov Yemen - Uzbekistan 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)

4 comments:

  1. Have you ever calculated how precise are the elo-based predictions?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Rafael,
    I use the same elo-prediction method as Edgar and registered for some time now the accuracy of the predictions. It fluctuated over the last year between 53% and 58% correct predictions and is at the moment 54%.
    Not a very high percentage, but there always are a lot of 'surprises' in NT-football and of course each elo-prediction has only a 33% chance of being correct.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed, very good info! Would be nice to see how it compares with other prediction systems :)

      Delete
    2. Other prediction systems ? Just for fun I've made a prediction system based on the FIFA ranking by rescaling the FIFA points of the November ranking to the current range in elo-ratings and apply the same prediction formula based on the elo home team win expectancy, but then calculated with this 'elo-rated' FIFA ratings instead of the normal elo ratings.
      Another prediction system is of course what the bookies think the odds of a win/draw/loss for each match will be. Although you can't use these odds for any kind of long term prediction - the odds are only available from a few days before a match - the bookies put their money where their mouth is, so their predictions should be quite sound.

      Together with the normal elo-based predictions I've applied these three systems on all the NT-football matches of the past week (from last Thursday) and these are the prediction success rates for each system per type of match:

      col 1: type of match
      col 2: number of matches played
      col 3: success-rate of normal elo-predictions
      col 4: success-rate based on elo-rated FIFA ranking
      col 5: success-rate bookies odds (I've used BetBrain as a source for this)

      AFC--Q - 29 - 82.8% - 75.9% - 86.2%
      CAF--Q - 38 - 52.6% - 60.5% - 63.2%
      CONM-Q - 10 - 40.0% - 40.0% - 70.0%
      CONC-Q - 12 - 66.7% - 50.0% - 58.3%
      UEFA-Q - 08 - 62.5% - 25.0% - 50.0%
      non-Fr - 97 - 62.9% - 58.8% - 69.1%

      Frndly - 27 - 48.1% - 44.4% - 59.3%

      Total - 124 - 59.7% - 55.6% - 66.9%

      AFC qualifying seems by far the most predictable type of match. Friendlies are the most difficult to predict, together with the CONMEBOL qualifiers.
      FIFA scores in general a few percent worse than the normal elo ratings, with the notable exception of CAF qualifying matches where FIFA predicts better.
      And the bookies seem to know what they are doing, they achieve of these three systems the best success rates. It's a pity their knowledge can't be used for the long term.

      Delete