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Friday, November 27, 2015

UEFA Nations League update (27 November 2015)

The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.

With the EURO 2016 qualifying now complete, here's a look at how the leagues shape up.


For every team, bar Gibraltar, I've added 10000 points for the 2018 WCQs, while for the 24 EURO 2016 participants I've already included 3 tournament matches.

Changes since the September update (the current update includes both the October group games and the play-offs).

Russia replace Iceland in League A.
Sweden and Turkey replace Norway and Denmark in League B.
Cyprus replace Estonia in League C.

Best movers:

8 - Sweden
7 - Bosnia and Herzegovina
5 - Turkey

Worst movers:

-10 - Iceland
-8 - Denmark
-4 - Slovakia and Israel

 1  1 Germany                24916
 2  2 England                24501
 3  3 Spain                  24046
 4  4 Belgium                24009
 5  6 Portugal               23245
 6  5 Austria                23116
 7  8 Italy                  22547
 8  9 Switzerland            22326
 9  7 France                 22159
10 12 Netherlands            22085
11 11 Ukraine                21473
12 15 Russia                 21309
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13 20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 21179
14 18 Croatia                21091
15 13 Czech Republic         20625
16 16 Romania                20540
17 25 Sweden                 20306
18 14 Slovakia               20257
19 17 Poland                 20215
20 10 Iceland                20196
21 24 Hungary                20184
22 22 Republic of Ireland    19698
23 28 Turkey                 19625
24 21 Wales                  19198
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25 29 Slovenia               19047
26 23 Norway                 18987
27 19 Denmark                18811
28 26 Northern Ireland       18644
29 32 Scotland               18361
30 30 Albania                18235
31 27 Israel                 18091
32 31 Montenegro             17351
33 34 Greece                 17111
34 35 Bulgaria               16991
35 33 Finland                16981
36 38 Serbia                 16246
37 36 Lithuania              15961
38 39 Cyprus                 15671
----------------------------------
39 41 Belarus                15168
40 37 Estonia                15160
41 43 Georgia                14643
42 40 Azerbaijan             13941
43 42 Armenia                13365
44 44 Latvia                 13241
45 45 Moldova                12710
46 46 FYR Macedonia          12671
47 50 Kazakhstan             12631
48 46 Luxembourg             12191
49 48 Faroe Islands          12130
50 49 Liechtenstein          11710
51 51 Malta                  10910
52 52 San Marino              9170
53 53 Andorra                 9060
54 54 Gibraltar               7300

League A

Pot 1: Germany, England, Spain, Belgium
Pot 2: Portugal, Austria, Italy, Switzerland
Pot 3: France, Netherlands, Ukraine, Russia

League B

Pot 1: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Romania
Pot 2: Sweden, Slovakia, Poland, Iceland
Pot 3: Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Turkey, Wales

League C

Pot 1: Slovenia, Norway, Denmark, Northern Ireland
Pot 2: Scotland, Albania, Israel, Montenegro
Pot 3: Greece, Bulgaria, Finland, Serbia
Pot 4: Lithuania, Cyprus

League D

Pot 1: Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Azerbaijan
Pot 2: Armenia, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia
Pot 3: Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein
Pot 4: Malta, San Marino, Andorra, Gibraltar

8 comments:

  1. Edgar,

    I can't reproduce the presented coefficient for Hungary. I have (WC14 + 2*EC16 + 2*WC18)/5 = (27052 + 2*26934 + 2*10000)/5 = 20184.
    WC14: 270521/10; EC16: (350014+3*18000)/15; WC18: 100000/10.

    Rest is ok. I assume you let Russia play a (virtual) WC18 qualifying campaign - instead of using their qualifying campaign for EC16 according to the regulations - to get a comparable, not distorted Russian coefficient.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed! Somehow I had only one win for Hungary in the play-offs. Fixed now.

      Delete
  2. O, and I assume that for France you probably deliberately (for the same comparison reasons) ignored the two play-offs they played for WC14 qualifying when substituting their missing EC16 qualifying with WC14Q.
    (while officially their EC16Q should be substituted with their WC18Q, btw).

    Always a lot of fuss, how to cope with these hosts and their missing qualifying campaigns, especially when you want to produce a ranking for UNL-seeding that makes sense ;)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's what I was wondering as well. Why exclude France's play-offs? The seedings for the Nations League will be published after the WC 2018 qualifiers end, including the play-offs. There will be no exclusion of the play-offs like we had recently.

      Delete
    2. Because as soon as the 2018 qualifiers start I will use those results for France.

      Delete
  3. Yup, I thought a bit about France's 2014 playoffs, then decided against including them.

    Good thing I kind of like stats :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. There's only one League D side that's played a Euros ... Latvia.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kosovo will be at the bottom. Most likely League C will be increased from 14 to 15, with the inclusion of the team ranked 39th (currently Belarus).

    ReplyDelete