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Friday, December 18, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC sims (18 December 2015)

Two weeks late, I know :)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 14 December 2015. And assuming Myanmar - Kuwait will finally be played on 19 March 2016 (currently there's no information from FIFA regarding's this match).

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format:



Winners + four best runners-up advance to the 3rd round of WCQ and 2019 AFC Asian Cup finals
The remaining runners-up + all 3rd placed teams + four best 4th placed teams advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.
The remaining 4th placed teams + all the 5th placed teams will go through 2 rounds of play-off matches to determine the final 8 teams to advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.

Most likely to be involved in the Asian Cup play-offs:

100.00% - Bangladesh
100.00% - Bhutan
100.00% - Cambodia
100.00% - Laos
99.96% - Yemen
98.90% - India
98.64% - Timor-Leste
94.54% - Malaysia
90.44% - Maldives
81.78% - Chinese Taipei
78.83% - Myanmar
50.55% - Afghanistan
5.15% - Tajikistan
1.12% - Guam
0.09% - Bahrain

Most likely to have a best 4th placed team:

99.98% - Group D
99.95% - Group H
94.85% - Group B
49.45% - Group E
21.17% - Group G
18.22% - Group F
9.56% - Group C
6.82% - Group A

Top 10 most likely to be among best 4th placed teams:

98.88% - Guam
93.77% - Tajikistan
68.78% - Philippines
49.08% - Afghanistan
31.13% - Bahrain
21.17% - Myanmar
18.22% - Chinese Taipei
9.56% - Maldives
5.46% - Malaysia
1.36% - Timor-Leste

Most likely to advance to the 3rd round of AFC Asian Cup qualification:

100.00% - Kyrgyzstan
100.00% - Philippines
100.00% - Singapore
100.00% - Turkmenistan
99.97% - Lebanon
99.91% - Bahrain
99.79% - Vietnam
99.06% - Hong Kong
98.88% - Guam
96.72% - Palestine
94.85% - Tajikistan
93.33% - Oman
75.06% - Kuwait
74.65% - China PR
68.79% - Jordan
49.45% - Afghanistan
38.20% - Korea DPR
24.78% - United Arab Emirates
21.17% - Myanmar
18.22% - Chinese Taipei
15.40% - Iraq
9.56% - Maldives
5.88% - Saudi Arabia
5.46% - Malaysia
3.68% - Australia
2.81% - Uzbekistan
1.48% - Syria
1.36% - Timor-Leste
1.10% - India
0.25% - Iran
0.10% - Japan
0.04% - Yemen
0.04% - Korea Republic
0.01% - Thailand

Most likely to have a best 2nd placed team:

98.42% - Group E
84.80% - Group F
72.62% - Group A
58.99% - Group H
27.53% - Group B
26.29% - Group C
24.93% - Group G
6.42% - Group D

Top 10 most likely to be among best 2nd placed teams:

86.99% - Syria
50.62% - Korea DPR
48.03% - United Arab Emirates
43.28% - Thailand
41.31% - Iraq
25.35% - China PR
24.55% - Kuwait
21.31% - Saudi Arabia
13.93% - Australia
13.60% - Jordan

Most likely to advance to the next round of World Cup qualification:

100.00% - Qatar
99.99% - Thailand
99.96% - Korea Republic
99.90% - Japan
99.75% - Iran
98.52% - Syria
97.19% - Uzbekistan
96.32% - Australia
94.12% - Saudi Arabia
84.60% - Iraq
75.22% - United Arab Emirates
61.80% - Korea DPR
31.21% - Jordan
25.35% - China PR
24.94% - Kuwait
6.67% - Oman
3.28% - Palestine
0.94% - Hong Kong
0.21% - Vietnam
0.03% - Lebanon

And now, for the seeding, assuming it will use the April 2016 FIFA ranking and there will be 6 pots.

Assuming the top 12 from the list above advance, these would be the pots (sorted by average pot over the 10000 sims):

Pot 1: Iran, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Japan, Australia
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Uzbekistan, Qatar
Pot 5: Iraq, Korea DPR
Pot 6: Thailand, Syria

Broken down by pot (assuming qualification to the next stage):

Pot 6

100.00% - Hong Kong
100.00% - Lebanon
85.21% - Syria
79.24% - Thailand
33.33% - Vietnam
31.48% - Kuwait
26.18% - Korea DPR
13.74% - Iraq
2.74% - Palestine
0.04% - Qatar

Pot 5

80.48% - Iraq
79.57% - Palestine
73.74% - Korea DPR
61.90% - Vietnam
53.93% - Kuwait
34.93% - Oman
27.45% - Qatar
20.19% - Thailand
18.14% - Jordan
13.79% - Syria
3.39% - China PR
0.09% - United Arab Emirates

Pot 4

95.98% - China PR
78.37% - Jordan
72.24% - Qatar
63.87% - Oman
25.76% - United Arab Emirates
22.42% - Saudi Arabia
19.45% - Uzbekistan
17.68% - Palestine
14.60% - Kuwait
5.78% - Iraq
4.79% - Australia
4.76% - Vietnam
0.99% - Syria
0.57% - Thailand
0.08% - Korea DPR

Pot 3

71.15% - Uzbekistan
49.83% - United Arab Emirates
42.98% - Saudi Arabia
28.93% - Australia
20.90% - Japan
3.49% - Jordan
2.57% - Korea Republic
1.20% - Oman
0.63% - China PR
0.27% - Qatar

Pot 2

75.93% - Japan
50.74% - Australia
33.77% - Korea Republic
24.04% - United Arab Emirates
15.09% - Saudi Arabia
9.37% - Uzbekistan
0.13% - Iran

Pot 1

99.87% - Iran
63.66% - Korea Republic
19.52% - Saudi Arabia
15.54% - Australia
3.17% - Japan
0.28% - United Arab Emirates
0.03% - Uzbekistan

24 comments:

  1. How will the deprecation of 2015 Asian Cup results effect teams in the February 2016 rankings?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It depends on their AC2015 performance.

      Australia will lose 73 points, Saudi Arabia will gain 97.

      -73 - Australia
      -54 - United Arab Emirates
      -48 - China PR
      -46 - Iran
      -38 - Japan
      -37 - Korea Republic
      -23 - Iraq
      -16 - Bahrain
      1 - Oman
      10 - Jordan
      13 - Uzbekistan
      40 - Palestine
      40 - Qatar
      46 - Kuwait
      49 - Korea DPR
      97 - Saudi Arabia

      Delete
    2. Given that Australia will lose 73 points, and Saudi Arabia will gain 97 points, Saudi Arabia will be ahead of Australia in February.
      So in your pots above you put Australia above Saudi Arabia assuming the latter will lose against UAE?

      Delete
    3. @anon (4th jan)
      - the pots are based on average results including draws or losses to UAE, if Saudi Arabia wins all matches you would think they would be a strong chance of making the second pot

      my tip is to visit the FIFA Site after the March rankings are published on 3rd March to find out what combination of WCQ/ACQ results have to occur in March to end up in a particular pot

      then repeat again on the 25th March prior to the last round of matches

      http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-tools/prognosis.html

      Delete
    4. So, as of today Jan the 21, the 6 pots would look like this, right??

      Pot 1 - Iran, Korea Rep.
      Pot 2- Saudi Arabia, Japan
      Pot 3 - U.A.E. - Australia
      Pot 4 - Uzbekistan, Qatar
      Pot 5 - Iraq, Korea DPR
      Pot 6 - Thailand, Syria

      *Note* the only changes from the Dec 18th simulation being - Australia dropping into Pot 3, with Saudi Arabia becoming the top seeded side in Pot 2*

      Delete
    5. Korea, Japan and Australia might be in the same group. Very interesting group I think!!!

      Delete
    6. It would be a very tough group, and I think unfair. but of course it would make for some interesting football to watch.

      Delete
  2. teams that eliminated in 1st round can't play in play-off round ACQ 2019 ??? Macau, Brunei,.. ????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, if you want to have the final 8 qualifiers for the third round of AFC19Q as a result out of two play-off rounds then you need more than 12 teams (4 4th placed + 8 5th placed teams). My educated guess is that the six teams eliminated in the first round of WC18Q will participate in these two AFC19Q play-off rounds.
      Obvious constellation of the play-offs would then be the first po-round consisting of 2 home-and-away play-offs (in June 2016) and the second po-round consisting of 8 home-and-away play-offs (in September/October 2016).
      However, the position of Indonesia in this AFC Cup qualifying process remains unclear.

      Delete
  3. thanks very much for the analysis, it highlights how costly it was for Jordan and Oman to lose to Kryzgstan and Turkmenistan and for China to draw to HK in their last qualifiers, with Syria a major beneficiary

    ReplyDelete
  4. The elo-predicted results of all the currently scheduled matches with Asian teams that can still qualify for the third round of Asian qualifying for the World Cup 2018:

    2016-??-?? MYA - KUW; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2016-01-16 UAE - ISL; Friendly; X
    2016-03-19 UAE - BAN; Friendly; 1
    2016-03-24 KSA - MAS; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 UAE - PLE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 AUS - TJK; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 JOR - BAN; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 CHN - MDV; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 QAT - HKG; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 IRN - IND; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 OMA - GUM; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 JPN - AFG; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 SYR - CAM; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 IRQ - THA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 VIE - TPE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 KOR - LIB; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 KUW - LAO; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 BHR - YEM; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 UZB - PHI; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 PLE - TLS; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 UAE - KSA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 AUS - JOR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 TJK - KGZ; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 CHN - QAT; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 MDV - BHU; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 IND - TKM; World Cup qualifier; X
    2016-03-29 IRN - OMA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 AFG - SIN; World Cup qualifier; X
    2016-03-29 JPN - SYR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 IRQ - VIE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 KOR - KUW; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 LIB - MYA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 PHI - PRK; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2016-03-29 UZB - BHR; World Cup qualifier; 1

    Based on these results the following Asian countries qualify for the third round. Their points and positions in the predicted FIFA April ranking are:

    1 Iran 670 (42)
    2 Korea Republic 603 (51)
    --
    3 Australia 599 (52)
    4 Japan 575 (58)
    --
    5 Uzbekistan 568 (60)
    6 United Arab Emirates 542 (63)
    --
    7 Saudi Arabia 523 (68)
    8 Qatar 417 (79)
    --
    9 Iraq 391 (89)
    10 Korea DPR 347 (99)
    --
    11 Syria 310 (110)
    12 Thailand 295 (117)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. UAE defeated Iceland 2-1 in a friendly today. So now what change in your predicted April ranking?

      Delete
    2. Not so much. United Arab Emirates climbs to 568 points in April. Still pot 3, of course assuming that the rest of the predictions remains the same.

      Delete
    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    4. Hi Ed,

      If Saudi Arabia beat or draw with the UAE what points tally does it leave them on in April?

      Thanks

      Delete
  5. If Saudi Arabia wins against United Arab Emirates on March 29th then they rocket to second spot in the Asian order in April and thus first pot, assuming of course that all other predictions remain the same.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Uzbekistan - Lebanon, friendly in Dubai on 14th February.

    http://sports-961.com/lebanese-football-national-team-in-training-camp/

    Coud this match change the ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Uzbekistan drops with this friendly (even with the predicted win) to 550 points in April: still pot 3, but behind United Arab Emirates.

      Delete
    2. Ah, stupid ranking...

      Delete
  7. The elo-predicted results of all the currently scheduled matches with Asian teams involved until the April ranking:

    2016-02-14 UZB - LIB; Friendly; 1
    2016-03-19 UAE - BAN; Friendly; 1
    2016-03-20 GUM - TPE; Friendly; 1
    2016-03-24 KSA - MAS; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 UAE - PLE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 AUS - TJK; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 JOR - BAN; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 CHN - MDV; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 QAT - HKG; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 IRN - IND; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 OMA - GUM; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 JPN - AFG; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 SYR - CAM; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 IRQ - THA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 VIE - TPE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 KOR - LIB; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 KUW - LAO; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 BHR - YEM; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-24 UZB - PHI; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 PLE - TLS; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 UAE - KSA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 AUS - JOR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 TJK - KGZ; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 CHN - QAT; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 MDV - BHU; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 IND - TKM; World Cup qualifier; X
    2016-03-29 IRN - OMA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 AFG - SIN; World Cup qualifier; X
    2016-03-29 JPN - SYR; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 IRQ - VIE; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 KOR - KUW; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 LIB - MYA; World Cup qualifier; 1
    2016-03-29 PHI - PRK; World Cup qualifier; 2
    2016-03-29 UZB - BHR; World Cup qualifier; 1

    Based on these results the following Asian countries qualify for the third round. Their points and positions in the predicted FIFA April ranking are:

    1 Iran 673 (41)
    2 Australia 601 (51)
    --
    3 Korea Republic 596 (52)
    4 Japan 577 (56)
    --
    5 United Arab Emirates 571 (58)
    6 Uzbekistan 549 (65)
    --
    7 Saudi Arabia 523 (68)
    8 Qatar 416 (83)
    --
    9 Iraq 388 (90)
    10 Korea DPR 346 (98)
    --
    11 Syria 310 (105)
    12 Thailand 295 (118)

    United Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia of March 29th is an important match for the seeding of the Asian third round. Currently elo predicts a loss for Saudi Arabia.
    If Saudi Arabia wins they rocket to 631 points and spot 46 in the ranking and to pot 1 in the Asian seeding order, pushing Australia and Japan to a lower pot. United Arab Emirates then drops to 496 points on spot 68, so they'll drop to pot 4.
    A draw in this match delivers Saudi Arabia 559 points on spot 63 and United Arab Emirates 521 points on spot 68, which effectively means a switch in seeding pots between the two.
    Assuming of course that all other predictions remain unchanged.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Btw with a loss against Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates will also lose their best runner-up spot to China PR and miss their qualification to the third round altogether, providing China PR wins their two qualifiers. China would then have 423 points in April (pot 4).

    ReplyDelete
  9. Iraq drawing with Thailand on March 24 sends Thailand through and also puts Iraq in the hot seat now, while keeping the door wide open for China and Oman if they can pinch upset wins over Qatar and Iran on March 29

    ReplyDelete