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Friday, December 18, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup CAF pot sims (18 December 2015)

The draw will take place on 24 June 2016 and will most likely use the June 2016 FIFA ranking (published on 2 June 2016).

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 17 December 2015.

This is how the pots look like (sorted by average pot over the 10000 simulations)



Pot 1: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Senegal
Pot 2: Egypt, Tunisia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Congo
Pot 3: Guinea, South Africa, Uganda, Congo DR, Mali
Pot 4: Morocco, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya

Pot 4

100.00% - Gabon
100.00% - Libya
91.31% - Zambia
81.56% - Burkina Faso
77.60% - Morocco
16.01% - Mali
12.16% - South Africa
11.72% - Uganda
8.66% - Congo DR
0.28% - Cameroon
0.23% - Congo
0.18% - Nigeria
0.18% - Guinea
0.11% - Egypt

Pot 3

83.17% - Congo DR
75.37% - Mali
69.70% - Uganda
66.55% - South Africa
38.09% - Guinea
37.47% - Congo
29.70% - Cameroon
24.63% - Nigeria
23.10% - Egypt
21.54% - Morocco
17.35% - Burkina Faso
8.69% - Zambia
4.54% - Tunisia
0.10% - Senegal

Pot 2

86.87% - Tunisia
68.14% - Cameroon
64.60% - Nigeria
61.59% - Guinea
53.76% - Congo
44.78% - Senegal
40.08% - Egypt
21.23% - South Africa
19.67% - Cape Verde Islands
18.58% - Uganda
8.62% - Mali
8.17% - Congo DR
1.50% - Ghana
1.09% - Burkina Faso
0.86% - Morocco
0.46% - Côte d'Ivoire

Pot 1

100.00% - Algeria
99.54% - Côte d'Ivoire
98.50% - Ghana
80.33% - Cape Verde Islands
55.12% - Senegal
36.71% - Egypt
10.59% - Nigeria
8.59% - Tunisia
8.54% - Congo
1.88% - Cameroon
0.14% - Guinea
0.06% - South Africa

Min/max points over the 10000 simulations:


Côte d'Ivoire 723 827
Algeria 701 843
Ghana 651 765
Cape Verde Islands 620 884
Tunisia 589 701
Senegal 586 722
Cameroon 554 707
Nigeria 549 727
Guinea 544 644
Egypt 531 754
Congo 531 686
Congo DR 528 633
Uganda 524 647
South Africa 487 622
Mali 464 602
Morocco 430 626
Zambia 404 533
Gabon 398 430
Burkina Faso 386 565
Libya 318 318

47 comments:

  1. we need the classment with points if possible.


    June ranking will be published in 9th June and thus will the ranking differs ??

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hmmm,, this means that june matches in 2017 AFCON will not be included.
    Can you give us the timeframes?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 1.0 starts from 2015-06-03
      0.5 starts from 2014-06-03
      0.3 starts from 2013-06-03
      0.2 starts from 2012-06-02

      Delete
  3. If possible, give us the classment with points

    ReplyDelete
  4. Sorry for overload, can you give us the expected Elo predictions for the next period till June?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hossam, all currently scheduled, elo-predicted matches with African teams involved:

    2015-12-23 NIG - CMR; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-16 GAB - MAR; Friendly; X
    2016-01-16 RWA - CIV; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-17 ANG - CMR; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-17 COD - ETH; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-18 NGA - NIG; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-18 TUN - GUI; Friendly; X
    2016-01-19 MLI - UGA; Friendly; X
    2016-01-19 ZIM - ZAM; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-20 CIV - MAR; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-20 RWA - GAB; Friendly; X
    2016-01-21 COD - ANG; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-21 ETH - CMR; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-22 GUI - NIG; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-22 TUN - NGA; Friendly; X
    2016-01-23 ZAM - UGA; Friendly; X
    2016-01-23 ZIM - MLI; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-24 CIV - GAB; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-24 RWA - MAR; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-25 COD - CMR; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-25 ETH - ANG; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-26 GUI - NGA; Friendly; X
    2016-01-26 TUN - NIG; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-27 ZAM - MLI; Friendly; X
    2016-01-27 ZIM - UGA; Friendly; 2
    2016-01-30 CIV - COD; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-30 CMR - MAR; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-31 NGA - MLI; Friendly; 1
    2016-01-31 ZAM - GUI; Friendly; Guinea PSO win
    2016-02-03 CIV - GUI; Friendly; 1
    2016-02-04 NGA - CMR; Friendly; Nigeria PSO win
    2016-02-07 CIV - NGA; Friendly; 1
    2016-02-07 CMR - GUI; Friendly; Cameroon PSO win
    2016-02-10 MEX - SEN; Friendly; 1
    2016-03-23 DJI - LBR; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-23 TUN - TOG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 COD - ANG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 MAD - CTA; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 MLI - EQG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 SSD - BEN; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-23 BFA - UGA; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-23 COM - BOT; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-23 GNB - KEN; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-23 ZAM - CGO; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 CPV - MAR; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 STP - LBY; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-23 CHA - TAN; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 NGA - EGY; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 GHA - MOZ; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 MRI - RWA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-23 CIV - SDN; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 ALG - ETH; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 SEY - LES; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-23 BDI - NAM; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 SEN - NIG; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 GUI - MWI; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 SWZ - ZIM; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-23 CMR - RSA; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-23 MTN - GAM; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-23 GAB - SLE; Friendly; 1
    2016-03-26 LBR - DJI; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 TOG - TUN; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 ANG - COD; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 CTA - MAD; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 BEN - SSD; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 EQG - MLI; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-26 BOT - COM; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 UGA - BFA; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 CGO - ZAM; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 KEN - GNB; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 LBY - STP; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 MAR - CPV; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 EGY - NGA; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 TAN - CHA; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 MOZ - GHA; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-26 RWA - MRI; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 SDN - CIV; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-26 ETH - ALG; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-26 LES - SEY; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 NAM - BDI; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 NIG - SEN; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-26 MWI - GUI; Continental qualifier; 2
    2016-03-26 ZIM - SWZ; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 GAM - MTN; Continental qualifier; 1
    2016-03-26 RSA - CMR; Continental qualifier; X
    2016-03-26 SLE - GAB; Friendly; X

    which leads to the following June 2016 ranking for the qualified African teams: http://www.football-rankings.info/2015/10/2018-fifa-world-cup-seeding-caf-10000.html?showComment=1449954560823#c175284636556131611

    ReplyDelete
  6. 2015-12-23 NIG - CMR; Friendly; 2

    this match ends 1-0 for Cameroon,, FIFA site deleted it from ranking after it was calculated. Why?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Could be any of these reasons: more than 6 subs, non-observance of the Laws of the Game, non-FIFA approved referee and/or assistants.
      Anyway, for Cameroon this has no dramatic influence: removal of the friendly dropped their January points from 586.7 to 586.0.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Ed.

      FIFA decided to remove all pre-CHAN friendlies. Apparently only those involving Rwanda escaped unscathed.

      Delete
  7. With only two matchdays of Africa Cup 2017 qualifying late March, the COSAFA Cup in May (for South Africa and Zambia) and the occasional, yet unscheduled, friendly to go before May 31th, these are the elo predicted points and positions in the June 2016 ranking with the seeding pots for round 3 of African WC qualifying:

    1 Algeria 829 (30)
    2 Cape Verde Islands 789 (34)
    3 Ghana 767 (35)
    4 Cote d'Ivoire 760 (37)
    5 Senegal 676 (42)
    --
    6 Tunisia 629 (46)
    7 Nigeria 624 (47)
    8 Cameroon 600 (52)
    9 Guinea 596 (54)
    10 Congo DR 575 (59)
    --
    11 Mali 569 (61)
    12 Congo 557 (63)
    13 Uganda 549 (64)
    14 Egypt 546 (65)
    15 South Africa 508 (70)
    --
    16 Zambia 480 (71)
    17 Morocco 429 (81)
    18 Burkina Faso 414 (85)
    19 Gabon 399 (87)
    20 Libya 319 (104)

    FIFA-points in June, given certain combinations of results in both CAF17 qualifiers (w: win; d: draw; l: loss; *: elo-predicted). As a team plays another team two times in one week in March the order of the achieved results doesn't matter.

    res ALG - CPV - GHA - CIV - SEN | TUN - NGA - CMR - GUI - COD
    w-w 829* - 873 - 767* - 760* - 676* | 657 - 669 - 635 - 596* - 596
    w-d 786 - 789* - 728 - 740 - 646 | 629* - 624* - 600* - 573 - 575*
    w-l 765 - 747 - 709 - 730 - 631 | 615 - 602 - 583 - 562 - 564
    d-d 744 - 705 - 690 - 720 - 616 | 601 - 580 - 566 - 551 - 553
    d-l 722 - 663 - 670 - 711 - 601 | 587 - 558 - 549 - 539 - 543
    l-l 701 - 620 - 651 - 701 - 586 | 573 - 535 - 531 - 528 - 532

    res MLI - CGO - UGA - EGY - RSA | ZAM - MAR - BFA - GAB - LBY
    w-w 569* - 686 - 581 - 692 - 613 | 514 - 557 - 556 - 408 - 319*
    w-d 539 - 634 - 549* - 634 - 571 | 480* - 506 - 499 - 399* - 301
    w-l 525 - 608 - 532 - 604 - 550 | 464 - 480 - 471 - 395 - 293
    d-d 510 - 583 - 516 - 575 - 529 | 447 - 454 - 443 - 390 - 284
    d-l 495 - 557* - 500 - 546* - 508* | 430 - 429* - 414* - 386 - 275
    l-l 481 - 531 - 483 - 516 - 487 | 414 - 403 - 386 - 381 - 266

    Algeria (against Ethiopia) and Cote d'Ivoire (against Sudan) are certain of pot 1. Other usual suspect Ghana (against Mozambique) will be highly likely. Cape Verde (against Morocco) and Senegal (against Niger) seem the most probable candidates for the remaining places in first pot. The plot thickens considerably for the places in pot 2. Egypt (against Nigeria) and Congo (against Zambia) could even have a shot at first pot with two wins.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Has there been any change to these figures or do they still stand? I believe Egypt has played some friendlies, but I haven't heard about any additional games for the others

      Delete
    2. In the meantime the friendly Egypt-Burkina Faso has been inserted (2:0 Feb 27th). The COSAFA Cup has been delayed to mid June, so these matches will not count for the June ranking anwyway.
      So the above ranking points for the June ranking still stand, with the exception of Egypt and Burkina Faso:

      Egypt
      w-w 684
      w-d 631
      w-l 604
      d-d 577
      d-l 551*
      l-l 524

      Burkina Faso
      w-w 531
      w-d 479
      w-l 453
      d-d 428
      d-l 402*
      l-l 376

      Delete
    3. Ghana must now be ensured of a pot 1 place as well, while Cape Verde only needs one point in the matches against Morocco to secure their place. Senegal needs 4 point from their matches against Niger to clinch the last spot.

      Delete
  8. With only one matchday of Africa Cup 2017 qualifying and the occasional, yet unscheduled, friendly to go before May 30th, these are the elo predicted points and positions in the June 2016 ranking with the seeding pots for round 3 of African WC qualifying:

    1 Algeria 829 (27)
    2 Ghana 767 (35)
    3 Cote d'Ivoire 760 (36)
    4 Senegal 676 (41)
    5 Congo 634 (43)
    --
    6 Egypt 631 (44)
    7 Tunisia 629 (45)
    8 Cape Verde Islands 620 (47)
    9 Congo DR 575 (56)
    10 Guinea 573 (57)
    --
    11 South Africa 571 (58)
    12 Mali 569 (61)
    13 Nigeria 558 (64)
    14 Morocco 557 (65)
    15 Cameroon 549 (66)
    --
    16 Uganda 532 (69)
    17 Burkina Faso 453 (76)
    18 Zambia 430 (81)
    19 Gabon 399 (88)
    20 Libya 293 (119)

    FIFA-points in June, given the result in the next CAF17 qualifier (w: win; d: draw; l: loss).

    r ALG - GHA - CIV - SEN - CGO | EGY - TUN - CPV - COD - GUI
    w 829 - 767 - 760 - 676 - 634 | 631 - 657 - 747 - 596 - 573
    d 786 - 728 - 740 - 646 - 583 | 577 - 629 - 663 - 575 - 551
    l 765 - 709 - 730 - 631 - 557 | 551 - 615 - 620 - 564 - 539

    r RSA - MLI - NGA - MAR - CMR | UGA - BFA - ZAM - GAB - LBY
    w 571 - 569 - 624 - 557 - 600 | 532 - 531 - 480 - 408 - 293
    d 529 - 539 - 580 - 506 - 566 | 500 - 479 - 447 - 399 - 275
    l 508 - 525 - 558 - 480 - 549 | 483 - 453 - 430 - 395 - 266

    Algeria, Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire are certain of pot 1. Senegal seems to have done enough to secure pot 1.
    The struggle for the last spot in pot 1: it's real African football. Close matches between opponents of more or less equal strength; even the elo predictions are not very constant and switch rapidly. Now it seems Cape Verde has made a mess of it, although with a win in Morocco they can still reach pot 1. Nigeria and Cameroon are suddenly predicted to fall back to pot 3.
    And what about Egypt? Are the unnecessary friendlies against Burkina Faso, Libya and Jordan going to haunt them ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cape Verde will be in pot 1 with a draw in Morocco. Obviously not a good sign that they lost a home, but that result means that Morocco could be quite satisfied with a draw as it would still leave them with a commanding lead in the Group. Cape Verde also does not need to attack aggresively as a draw would still give them fine chances to advance as one of the best 2ers with victories in the two last games

      Delete
    2. Yeah, you are right. A draw and 663 points are more than enough for Cape Verde to secure pot 1.
      Senegal on second thought might need to do some more work: with a draw in Niger they could be overtaken by Tunisia winning in Togo.

      Delete
  9. We can be in pot 1 if Congo draws with Zambia tomorrow ,

    ReplyDelete
  10. Is there any matches till June for Congo??

    ReplyDelete
  11. If Senegal losses in Niger, they will have 631 points,and Egypt 631 points , who will be seeded??

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hossam, Egypt has done well to hold Nigeria to a draw. Now they will have to finish it Tuesday with a win. What an exciting matchday that will be !

    Congo has no other matches scheduled until June yet. And the best advice would be to not play any friendly before the June ranking, especially if they win today against Zambia.

    A Senegal loss and an Egypt win would leave the two at 631 points in June. Decimals would decide then: SEN 630,776; EGY 630,770.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Is there is any documentation that Fifa will use June ranking not May ranking for seeding the teams in the Draw 24/6???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No official notice yet. It's just common practice to use the latest ranking at the time of a draw.

      Delete
  14. Chad had withdrawn from qualfiers,, does it will affect ranking?? We win them 1/5 in Septembre

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The 3 group matches played sofar against Chad will be annulled for the CAF17 qualification.
      If FIFA deletes them from their results list also, then (with the predicted win for Egypt against Nigeria tomorrow) Egypt will still have 631 points in June and Nigeria will drop from 558 points to 548 points in June.
      With a draw tomorrow EGY: 573 (was 577), NGA 572 (was 580);
      With a Nigerian win: EGY: 543 (was 551), NGA 620 (was 624).

      Delete
  15. So congo probably lost a big chance to be seede. Bah. I want a minnow to be seeded, so Cape Verde have to draw at least, let's hope...

    ReplyDelete
  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i think Tunisia will exceed 631 points easily

      Delete
    2. Based on what ? and if your point is true , why don't Egypt make friendlies and exceed 631 as well?

      Delete
  17. With only the occasional, yet unscheduled, friendly to go before May 30th, these are the elo predicted points in the June 2016 ranking with the seeding pots for round 3 of African WC qualifying:

    1 Algeria 786
    2 Cote d'Ivoire 740
    3 Ghana 728
    4 Senegal 676
    5 Egypt 631
    --
    6 Tunisia 629
    7 Cape Verde Islands 620
    8 Congo DR 596
    9 Congo 583
    10 Guinea 573
    --
    11 Mali 569
    12 Cameroon 566
    13 Morocco 557
    14 Nigeria 548
    15 South Africa 529
    --
    16 Uganda 500
    17 Burkina Faso 479
    18 Zambia 447
    19 Gabon 395
    20 Libya 293

    Cape Verde completely messed it up. Tunisia did not grab that opportunity with a draw in Togo. Egypt finally did took their chance and won against Nigeria. Congrats Hossam !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After today's results, so Egypt will be in pot 1 with 631 while tunisia will be in pot 2 with 629 . Egypt shouldnot make any friendlies without a comprehensive study because tunisia might play a friendly game or two and exceed Egypt in the points. I would like to know the probability if Tunisia played one or two friendlies before june with an average african team (below the first 50 ranked teams ) and won . will Tunisia points exceed 631?

      Delete
  18. After today's results, if cape verde lost against Morocco, so Egypt will be in pot 1 with 631 while tunisia will be in pot 2 with 629 . Egypt shouldnot make any friendlies without a comprehensive study because tunisia might play a friendly game or two and exceed Egypt in the points. I would like to know the probability if Tunisia played one or two friendlies before june with an average african team (below the first 50 ranked teams ) and won . will Tunisia points exceed 631?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Cape Verde wasted te chance of the century...too bad!

    ReplyDelete
  20. We did it finally ,,, thanks Ed for your help.

    ReplyDelete
  21. What is the deadline for June ranking?? Is it 28 or 29 may?? If 29 , games played in 29/5 included or not?? Or before 29/5??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Matches played before or on Sunday May 29th are included in the June ranking.

      Delete
    2. Hi Ed,

      Can you post how you calculated tunisia and cape verde and Egypt points in june in details (matches and points since june 2012 till june 2016) so that we can figure out if Tunisia and/or Capeverde played any friendlies before MAy 29 will that be affecting the pots you posted or not . from a preliminary inaccurate calculation that I made , tunisia will lose points even if they played belgium :)

      Delete
    3. That sure is an inaccurate calculation :) The first timeframe average of Tunisia in the June ranking is 221,51 at the moment. A friendly against Belgium (which they must win of course) delivers Tunisia 546,48 matchpoints and a first timeframe average of 241,81: some 20 FIFA points more.

      I will give you the detailed calculations of EGY, TUN and CPV for the June ranking.

      First Egypt:
      cycle date opponent matchpts
      4 10-6-2012 GUI 857,850
      4 15-6-2012 CTA 0,000
      4 30-6-2012 CTA 230,050
      4 15-8-2012 OMA 92,880
      4 12-10-2012 CGO 273,480
      4 16-10-2012 TUN 0,000
      4 14-11-2012 GEO 125,550
      4 10-1-2013 GHA 0,000
      4 14-1-2013 CIV 0,000
      4 6-2-2013 CHI 0,000
      4 7-3-2013 QAT 0,000
      4 26-3-2013 ZIM 645,000
      3 9-6-2013 ZIM 632,100
      3 16-6-2013 MOZ 625,650
      3 14-8-2013 UGA 317,340
      3 10-9-2013 GUI 851,400
      3 15-10-2013 GHA 0,000
      3 19-11-2013 GHA 1141,650
      3 5-3-2014 BIH 510,570
      3 30-5-2014 CHI 0,000
      2 4-6-2014 JAM 103,530
      2 5-9-2014 SEN 0,000
      2 10-9-2014 TUN 0,000
      2 10-10-2014 BOT 694,875
      2 15-10-2014 BOT 694,875
      2 15-11-2014 SEN 0,000
      2 19-11-2014 TUN 0,000
      2 26-3-2015 EQG 382,500
      1 8-6-2015 MWI 267,750
      1 14-6-2015 TAN 465,375
      1 6-9-2015 CHA 318,750
      1 11-10-2015 ZAM 328,950
      1 14-11-2015 CHA 0,000
      1 17-11-2015 CHA 408,000
      1 27-1-2016 JOR 0,000
      1 29-1-2016 LBY 303,450
      1 27-2-2016 BFA 293,250
      1 25-3-2016 NGA 293,250
      1 29-3-2016 NGA 879,750

      cycle pts MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
      1 3558,525 11 323,50 1 323,50
      2 1875,780 8 234,47 0,5 117,24
      3 4078,710 8 509,84 0,3 152,95
      4 2224,810 12 185,40 0,2 37,08
      FIFA EGY 630,77

      Then Tunisia:
      cycle date opponent matchpts
      4 2-6-2012 EQG 625,650
      4 9-6-2012 CPV 793,350
      4 15-8-2012 IRN 130,720
      4 8-9-2012 SLE 303,150
      4 13-10-2012 SLE 285,950
      4 16-10-2012 EGY 412,800
      4 14-11-2012 SUI 0,000
      4 30-12-2012 IRQ 278,640
      4 7-1-2013 ETH 77,400
      4 10-1-2013 GAB 135,880
      4 13-1-2013 GHA 0,000
      4 22-1-2013 ALG 1377,720
      4 26-1-2013 CIV 0,000
      4 30-1-2013 TOG 317,340
      4 23-3-2013 SLE 883,650
      3 8-6-2013 SLE 279,500
      3 16-6-2013 EQG 292,400
      3 6-7-2013 MAR 0,000
      3 13-7-2013 MAR 104,060
      3 14-8-2013 CGO 278,640
      3 7-9-2013 CPV 1057,800
      3 13-10-2013 CMR 298,850
      3 17-11-2013 CMR 0,000
      3 5-3-2014 COL 181,350
      3 28-5-2014 KOR 374,100
      2 7-6-2014 BEL 0,000
      2 6-9-2014 BOT 726,750
      2 10-9-2014 EGY 1032,750
      2 10-10-2014 SEN 348,500
      2 15-10-2014 SEN 1045,500
      2 14-11-2014 BOT 208,250
      2 19-11-2014 EGY 1032,750
      2 18-1-2015 CPV 408,000
      2 22-1-2015 ZAM 1147,500
      2 26-1-2015 COD 364,650
      2 31-1-2015 EQG 0,000
      2 27-3-2015 JPN 0,000
      2 31-3-2015 CHN 99,450
      1 12-6-2015 DJI 318,750
      1 15-6-2015 MAR 91,800
      1 18-6-2015 LBY 0,000
      1 5-9-2015 LBR 0,000
      1 9-10-2015 GAB 114,750
      1 19-10-2015 LBY 242,250
      1 25-10-2015 MAR 0,000
      1 13-11-2015 MTN 612,000
      1 17-11-2015 MTN 612,000
      1 18-1-2016 GUI 128,350
      1 22-1-2016 NGA 113,900
      1 26-1-2016 NIG 247,350
      1 31-1-2016 MLI 0,000
      1 25-3-2016 TOG 631,125
      1 29-3-2016 TOG 210,375

      cycle pts MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
      1 3322,650 15 221,51 1 221,51
      2 6414,100 13 493,39 0,5 246,70
      3 2866,700 10 286,67 0,3 86,00
      4 5622,250 15 374,82 0,2 74,96
      FIFA TUN 629,17

      Then Cape Verde:
      cycle date opponent matchpts
      4 2-6-2012 SLE 0,000
      4 9-6-2012 TUN 0,000
      4 16-6-2012 MAD 322,500
      4 8-9-2012 CMR 896,550
      4 14-10-2012 CMR 0,000
      4 14-11-2012 GHA 0,000
      4 9-1-2013 NGA 127,280
      4 19-1-2013 RSA 296,700
      4 23-1-2013 MAR 325,080
      4 27-1-2013 ANG 944,280
      4 2-2-2013 GHA 0,000
      4 24-3-2013 EQG 857,850
      3 8-6-2013 EQG 857,850
      3 15-6-2013 SLE 838,500
      3 14-8-2013 GAB 102,340
      3 7-9-2013 TUN 0,000
      3 5-3-2014 LUX 74,400
      2 6-9-2014 NIG 522,750
      2 10-9-2014 ZAM 739,500
      2 11-10-2014 MOZ 0,000
      2 15-10-2014 MOZ 580,125
      2 15-11-2014 NIG 503,625
      2 19-11-2014 ZAM 0,000
      2 18-1-2015 TUN 453,900
      2 22-1-2015 COD 364,650
      2 26-1-2015 ZAM 382,500
      2 31-3-2015 POR 532,680
      1 13-6-2015 STP 318,750
      1 6-9-2015 LBY 650,250
      1 13-11-2015 KEN 0,000
      1 17-11-2015 KEN 478,125
      1 26-3-2016 MAR 0,000
      1 29-3-2016 MAR 0,000

      cycle pts MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
      1 1447,125 6 241,19 1 241,19
      2 4079,730 10 407,97 0,5 203,99
      3 1873,090 5 374,62 0,3 112,39
      4 3770,240 12 314,19 0,2 62,84
      FIFA CPV 620,40

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  22. Please keep in mind that for Egypt the match on 6-9-2015 against Chad (318,750) shall be deleted from this calculation. So first timeframe for Egypt will be 3239,775 divided by 10 = 323,98 (instead of 323,50).
    At the moment the matches against Chad are still included in the FIFA-fixturelist. That's why you see this match in this calculation.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Ed for such valuable information, based on that:

      If Tunisia organized a friendly game with a team out of europe and southamerica and ranked between (113 and 50 ) it's points can range between 629.19 to 639.23


      If Cape Verde organized a friendly game with a team out of europe and southamerica and ranked between (lowest ranked team in the world and 50 ) it's points can range between 635,21 to 638.25.

      If Tunisia and /or Capeverde did that , so Egypt should play with very low ranked teams (below 150 ) twice in april and twice before May 30 th to keep it's position in pot A . The egyptian football association should start following up now !

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    2. This is not correct! Egy must play a friendly against a highly ranked Team. Its because they have to match/hold a much higher average in the last 12 months than Tun/CV( in case Tun/CV play the mentioned friendlies)!

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    3. Yes, why would Egypt do that, playin against Minor Teams below 150? A Friendly win against Teams below 150 Ranked counts 150/127,5 points (50*3*1, Factor *0,85 for African Opponents). Egypt in June will have an Average of 323,50 Points for the last 12 Months. Why should they destroy their Average with Silly Friendlies. If anything they should arrange on single friendly in May against a strong side (in case Tunisia/Cape Verde surpassed them with a friendly win).

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  23. This is not correct! Egy must play a friendly against a highly ranked Team. Its because they have to match/hold a much higher average in the last 12 months than Tun/CV( in case Tun/CV play the mentioned friendlies)!

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    Replies
    1. sure, Tunisia to overcome Egypt needs to play friendly against opponent in the top 100 , In this case,Egypt must play against opponent in the top 70 to restore the 2 points difference.

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    2. Egypt should play against Panama . high ranked african team won't agree for sure to risk with their rank, and low ranked teams will decrease egypt's average. Winning panama could add 4 to 5 points to Egypt to become 135 or 136. that's the optimum solution for egypt

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    3. I heared somewhere that Egypt and Morocco will play eachother. It would be a nice match up!

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