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Friday, June 26, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup: Preliminary draw pots for UEFA

The preliminary draw is less than a month from today.
 
Assuming UEFA will choose the July FIFA ranking for seeding, we already know the pots, as European teams have no matches left to play before the deadline.

These are the pots and some quick analysis.


Friday, June 12, 2015

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the July 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

Most likely this ranking will be used to seed both the European and African sections of the 2018 FIFA World Cup draw.

141 matches until the deadline. Copa America 2015 + lots of qualifiers. Big points available for many teams.

Friday, June 5, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (5 June 2015)

See previous simulation results.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

Per scenario sims can be found here.

Based on these 10000 simulations, these would be the pots. Teams are sorted by the average pot over the 10000 sims.

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulations by team

Because I've received lots of "What are my team's chances if they do this and that and everything else stays the same" questions, I've decided to run 10000 sims for each possible scenario. Lost patience after Serbia and dropped to 1000 sims per scenario.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 3 June 2015.

The usual simulations can be found here.

Some very important matches: