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Friday, July 31, 2015

FIFA Ranking: August 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 August.

5 matches left - all friendlies.

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 9 teams:

2018 FWCQ draw: Europe's winners and losers

I was curious to see the impact of the draw on teams' qualification chances.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula.

So I ran 10000 simulations doing first the draw, then adding the fixtures and another 10000 simulations with the actual groups and fixtures.

Friday, July 24, 2015

EURO 2016 qualifying simulations (24 July 2015)

Finally found the time to for this.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 23 July 2015.


Best 3rd most like to come out of group:

AFC member association ranking update (24 July 2015)

After the Round of 16 in the AFC Champions League and AFC Cup.

No association has dropped out of the top 24 - those are the associations eligible to receive direct slots in the AFC Champions League.

More info about the AFC MA ranking.

Friday, July 17, 2015

FIFA Ranking: August 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 6 August.

I will most likely post the final preview on 31 July, if I'm not on vacation. That's a big if.

13 matches left: the 8 final matches of the 2015 CONCACAF Gold Cup and a couple of friendlies (actually Indian Ocean Islands Games and East Asian Cup matches).

Serbia - Albania: Somebody didn't do their homework

The Romanian Liga 1 teams and the entities in charge of organizing the competition are regulars at CAS. In 2013 for instance, Rapid Bucuresti won a relegation play-off vs. Concordia Chiajna and played two matches in the 2013/2014 season. However, Chiajna's officials contested the FA's decision to organize the play-off at CAS - asking for emergency procedures (I'm not sure if this is the correct legal term, but, hey, I'm a programmer, not a lawyer). CAS ruled in Concordia Chiajna favour and they were reinstated in Liga 1, although the competition had already started.

Friday, July 3, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF format and pots

The format is almost official, the pots are not.

FIFA have released their Statistical Kit for the Preliminary Draw.

Remember CAF announced in January the format for the African qualifiers.

FIFA Ranking: July 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 July.

15 games left: The final two games of the 2015 Copa America and 13 friendlies (most of them CHAN qualifiers).

This is how the points and ranks could change for these 30 teams:

The blame game - an age old problem

Remember the Genesis story about Adam, Eve and the snake? (I believe it's true, by the way.) The blame passing started then and it's still very much happening these days. I see it in my house when I ask my kids who made that mess in their room.

It also happens in football. I saw it in my 6+ years as Romania correspondent for SoccerWay. When a manager comes to a club and has poor results, he will be quick to point the finger to his predecessor and blame him. Some club managers also take this mentality with them when moving into national team management.

UEFA Nations League update (3 July 2015)

All you need to know about this competition can be found on UEFA.com.


The coefficient used for the first edition draw will be made up of:

2014 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2016 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2018 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting.


EURO 2016: Final draw coefficients (3 July 2015)

The coefficients for the EURO 2016 final draw will take into account results from:

UEFA EURO 2012 (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 20%
2014 FIFA World Cup (qualifying competition and final tournament) - 40%
UEFA EURO 2016 (qualifying competition: group matches) - 40%

These coefficients will also be used for the play-off draw seeding.