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Friday, October 30, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup seeding (CAF): 10000 simulations (30 October 2015)

The draw for Round 3 is yet unknown.

The draw date, location and procedure for Round Three will be confirmed by the end of Round Two by the Organising Committee for the 2018 FIFA World Cup Russia™.

But since some of my African readers have been very insistent, I've run 10000 simulations assuming the draw takes place in December, using the December FIFA ranking.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Only two matches left - both friendlies as far as FIFA are concerned. They are actually CHAN qualifiers.

Friday, October 23, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC second round simulations (23 October 2015)

By request.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 22 October 2015. And assuming Kuwait manage to fix their issues in time for the November qualifier vs. Myanmar.

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format :

Best and worst teams to play against in November

This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).

For the best part I took into account only teams that would bring at least 200 points for a win.

EURO 2016 play-off sims and comparison with previous sims

From an Elo rating point of view, 3 of the 4 EURO 2016 play-offs are extremely balanced.

Sweden (1723) vs. Denmark (1723)
Norway (1638) vs. Hungary (1632)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (1728) vs. Republic of Ireland (1720)
Ukraine (1788) vs. Slovenia (1598)

Friday, October 16, 2015

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable ranking (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the November 2015 probable ranking (II). They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 preview (II)

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

30 games left, all in Africa. One World Cup qualifier and 29 friendlies (most of them 2016 CHAN qualifiers).

The top 50 is pretty much set, only 7 African teams could change it. For more stats, see the probable ranking.

2018 FIFA World Cup final draw seeding: Only two years left

Next update: October 2016.

Assuming FIFA will again use the October 2017 ranking to determine the seeds, the 0.3 time frame (games played between 24 and 36 months ago relative to the release date) closed a couple of days ago.

Revolutionary blueprint for Scottish football leaked

According to unnamed sources at Hampden Park, a revolutionary blueprint is currently considered by Scottish FA board.

The report highlights the 3 points difference between Scotland and the Republic of Ireland (closest between 4th and 3rd in all the groups) and the failure of qualifying to an expanded EURO 2016, despite being one of the promoters of this expansion.

Friday, October 2, 2015

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points see the preview.

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2015 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

FIFA Ranking: November 2015 preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 5 November.

177 games - many of them competitive, so expect a lot of changes in the ranking.