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Friday, April 8, 2016

2018 FIFA World Cup: CAF 3rd round seeding reloaded

A comment on my blog made me aware of this article published by the Tunisian FA a couple of days ago.

Apparently there will be a special ranking published between 8 and 10 June 2016 that will be used to seed the teams for the third round draw.



10000 simulations later, these are the pots:

Pot 1: Algeria, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, Tunisia
Pot 2: Egypt, Congo DR, Cape Verde Islands, Mali, Guinea
Pot 3: Nigeria, Congo, Morocco, Cameroon, South Africa
Pot 4: Uganda, Burkina Faso, Zambia, Gabon, Libya

Compared to last week's pots, Tunisia replace Egypt in Pot 1, while Mali replace Congo in Pot 2.

Pot 4

100% - Burkina Faso
100% - Gabon
100% - Libya
100% - Zambia
63.36% - Uganda
32.63% - South Africa
4.01% - Cameroon

Pot 3

89.77% - Cameroon
80.1% - Morocco
67.37% - South Africa
63.16% - Congo
60.56% - Nigeria
48.45% - Guinea
36.64% - Uganda
32.57% - Mali
21.38% - Cape Verde Islands

Pot 2

100% - Congo DR
78.62% - Cape Verde Islands
67.43% - Mali
54.47% - Egypt
51.55% - Guinea
45.53% - Tunisia
39.44% - Nigeria
36.84% - Congo
19.9% - Morocco
6.22% - Cameroon

Pot 1

100% - Algeria
100% - Côte d'Ivoire
100% - Ghana
100% - Senegal
54.47% - Tunisia
45.53% - Egypt


Minimum and maximum points over the 10000 simulations:



Algeria 750 785
Côte d'Ivoire 708 757
Ghana 697 732
Senegal 644 675
Tunisia 623 643
Egypt 602 646
Congo DR 583 616
Cape Verde Islands 549 594
Mali 557 575
Guinea 549 577
Nigeria 562 562
Congo 544 587
Morocco 536 570
Cameroon 526 588
South Africa 509 530
Uganda 485 533
Burkina Faso 469 498
Zambia 436 465
Gabon 383 410
Libya 294 368



9 comments:

  1. According to WGF, the date chosen for the ranking will significantly influence who'll get the last spot in the top pot: http://www.weglobalfootball.com/2016/04/08/fifa-will-create-special-june-rankings-caf-world-cup-pots/

    "The craziest thing about all of this is that it truly matters what day the rankings are released because of the way FIFA calculates points. If Egypt, Cape Verde, and Tunisia all win, here are the ranking dates and corresponding final Pot 1 team.
    ◾6/2 – Egypt
    ◾6/3 – Egypt
    ◾6/4 – Cape Verde
    ◾6/5 – Cape Verde
    ◾6/6 – Cape Verde
    ◾6/7 – Tunisia
    ◾6/8 – Egypt
    ◾6/9 – Egypt
    ◾6/10 – Egypt
    ◾6/11 – Tunisia
    ◾6/12 – Egypt
    ◾6/13 – Tunisia
    ◾6/14 & After – Egypt"

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The FTF article mentions 8-10 June. I chose 9 for the sims.

      Delete
  2. I think this potponing is unfair, Whats about Nigeria? they lose chance to improve its ranking with Chad withdrawl,

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's not only unfair, it is completely outrageous. This is a first in FIFA's history of using their ranking as a seeding instrument.
    Some serious money must have been 'distributed' here for FIFA to even contemplate this shady move. Pfffff, what an utter disgrace for FIFA once again.
    Let's hope that all their scheming may lead to no change in the resulting seeding whatsoever !

    ReplyDelete
  4. Whats the timeframes for 9 June ranking?

    ReplyDelete
  5. 1st timeframe from 10-06-2015 till at least 05-06-2016 to include all June CAF17 qualifiers
    2nd timeframe from 10-06-2014 till 09-06-2015
    3rd timeframe from 10-06-2013 till 09-06-2014
    4th timeframe from 09-06-2012 till 09-06-2013

    ReplyDelete
  6. Is it possible to play 2 friendlies against the same opponent with 3 or 4 days duration??? fifa accept that ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes. As long as the match locations are in the same confederation. Also there's a thing about number of time zones the teams have to travel.

      Delete