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Friday, May 13, 2016

2016 Copa América Centenario sims

The usual 10000 simulations.

First the average points in the group stage.



Colombia            5.357
USA                 4.554
Costa Rica          3.837
Paraguay            2.808
-------------------------
Brazil              6.626
Ecuador             4.966
Peru                3.550
Haiti               1.656
-------------------------
Mexico              6.159
Uruguay             5.960
Jamaica             2.450
Venezuela           2.231
-------------------------
Argentina           6.893
Chile               5.280
Panama              3.130
Bolivia             1.583

Reaching the knock-out stage:

91.12% - Argentina
88.40% - Brazil
84.67% - Mexico
83.10% - Uruguay
74.09% - Chile
71.11% - Colombia
66.92% - Ecuador
58.19% - USA
43.88% - Costa Rica
34.96% - Peru
27.15% - Panama
26.82% - Paraguay
17.27% - Jamaica
14.96% - Venezuela
9.72% - Haiti
7.64% - Bolivia

Reaching the semifinals:

66.26% - Argentina
61.08% - Brazil
43.51% - Colombia
41.26% - Uruguay
40.39% - Mexico
40.33% - Chile
31.98% - Ecuador
27.04% - USA
15.94% - Costa Rica
11.00% - Peru
8.48% - Paraguay
6.47% - Panama
2.22% - Venezuela
1.88% - Jamaica
1.19% - Bolivia
0.97% - Haiti

Reaching the final:

41.07% - Brazil
38.31% - Argentina
25.74% - Colombia
17.81% - Uruguay
17.74% - Chile
15.94% - Mexico
14.80% - Ecuador
11.92% - USA
7.84% - Costa Rica
3.87% - Peru
2.94% - Paraguay
1.17% - Panama
0.36% - Jamaica
0.28% - Venezuela
0.12% - Bolivia
0.09% - Haiti

Winners:

24.75% - Argentina
20.56% - Brazil
14.49% - Colombia
8.79% - Chile
8.18% - Uruguay
6.71% - Mexico
5.67% - Ecuador
5.14% - USA
2.86% - Costa Rica
1.31% - Peru
1.28% - Paraguay
0.16% - Panama
0.07% - Jamaica
0.03% - Venezuela
0.00% - Bolivia
0.00% - Haiti

7 comments:

  1. Taking into account the form all teams are in, squad developments, injuries, etc - I think, if it plays out the way it should, the final will be Argentina v Uruguay. Oddly enough it would be very fitting, since the the 1916 Copa America had the same two sides in the final, and this tournament is a celebration of the 100th anniversary of the CA.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Chile and Colombia have looked less than impressive lately. Also, we have seen how Brazil plays without Neymar. On the other hand, Uruguay have top defenders in Godin and Gimenez and top scorers in Suarez and Cavani. It wont be easy, but I would pick Argentina and Uruguay to reach the final.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What makes Costa Rica's odds to advance the group so low if they're ranked above the US?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, home advantage means 100 extra Elo points.

      Delete
  4. can someone please tell me why the fifa ranking calculator was reset to all zeros when i try to calculate julys probable ranking it just calculates it without previous points gained and averages,its been this way since the june rankings were released,how has nobody reported on this yet,is i f a way for fifa to rig the ranking after uero and copa america.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks OK now. Must have been something about the special CAF ranking or simple bug on their system.

      Delete