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Friday, May 6, 2016

FIFA Ranking: June 2016 probable ranking

FIFA will publish the ranking on 2 June.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking. For minimum/maximum points + simulations see the preview.


Probable June 2016 rank - Team - Probable June 2016 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Argentina 1503 0 -29
2 Germany 1366 3 57
3 Belgium 1343 -1 -21
4 Colombia 1328 0 -9
5 Chile 1320 -2 -33
6 Spain 1267 0 -10
7 Brazil 1257 0 -4
8 Portugal 1181 0 -3
9 Uruguay 1150 0 -8
10 Austria 1077 1 10
11 England 1069 -1 0
12 Ecuador 990 0 -29
13 Italy 982 2 23
14 Switzerland 966 0 -8
15 Netherlands 959 2 28
16 Mexico 942 0 4
17 France 925 4 18
18 Romania 923 1 3
19 Turkey 892 -6 -91
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina 886 0 -27
20 Hungary 886 -2 -39
22 Ukraine 862 0 -18
23 Costa Rica 853 2 24
24 Northern Ireland 851 2 26
25 Wales 846 -1 7
26 Croatia 842 -3 -14
26 Poland 842 1 21
28 Russia 828 -1 7
29 Czech Republic 815 0 5
30 Slovakia 799 2 15
31 USA 787 -2 -23
32 Algeria 786 1 15
33 Republic of Ireland 768 -2 -24
34 Iceland 751 1 27
35 Sweden 735 1 22
36 Côte d'Ivoire 732 -2 -6
37 Ghana 728 1 35
38 Denmark 697 3 11
39 Greece 696 -2 1
40 Iran 688 2 16
41 Senegal 677 2 26
42 Scotland 659 -2 -28
43 Albania 643 2 11
44 Paraguay 638 -5 -50
45 Egypt 631 -1 -17
46 Tunisia 629 1 9
47 Peru 623 -1 -8
48 Cape Verde Islands 620 -1 0
49 Korea Republic 603 5 12
50 Jamaica 598 5 13
51 Norway 593 -2 -12
52 Panama 583 0 -10
53 Congo DR 581 -2 -15
53 Japan 581 4 4
55 Serbia 576 1 -5
56 Guinea 573 2 3
57 Slovenia 567 4 9
58 Cameroon 566 5 10
59 Australia 563 -9 -38
60 Congo 560 -1 -2
60 Mali 560 5 9
62 Morocco 555 2 0
63 Trinidad and Tobago 550 -10 -42
64 Saudi Arabia 545 -4 -14
65 Uzbekistan 544 1 -5
66 Nigeria 543 1 3
67 Finland 536 -6 -22
68 South Africa 529 2 22
69 Bulgaria 518 0 10
70 United Arab Emirates 517 -2 -4
71 Israel 513 5 46
72 Uganda 500 0 9
73 Burkina Faso 479 2 10
74 Haiti 478 -3 -24
75 Benin 473 -2 -16
76 Equatorial Guinea 466 7 50
77 Zambia 447 1 -10
78 Venezuela 446 -4 -30
79 Belarus 442 -2 -23
80 Jordan 434 2 16
81 China PR 423 0 0
82 Bolivia 420 -3 -20
83 Qatar 418 0 2
84 Antigua and Barbuda 413 1 0
85 Cyprus 407 -5 -19
86 Botswana 401 5 22
87 Gabon 395 1 0
88 Honduras 393 -2 -13
89 Faroe Islands 383 1 0
89 Guatemala 383 0 -6
91 Montenegro 382 3 17
92 St. Kitts and Nevis 374 0 6
93 Estonia 365 0 -1
94 Canada 363 1 6
95 Central African Republic 351 1 -4
96 Mozambique 349 5 11
97 Korea DPR 348 15 34
98 El Salvador 342 -1 -5
99 Oman 338 -1 -8
99 Togo 338 4 4
101 Syria 336 9 20
102 Iraq 334 2 1
103 Rwanda 332 -16 -69
104 Latvia 330 3 7
105 Nicaragua 329 0 0
106 Chad 326 -8 -20
107 Malawi 320 -1 -6
108 Madagascar 317 29 60
108 Sierra Leone 317 10 19
110 Kyrgyzstan 313 -10 -29
111 Kazakhstan 312 6 12
112 Palestine 311 18 40
113 Belize 307 1 0
114 Guinea-Bissau 303 -12 -33
114 Zimbabwe 303 12 23
116 Niger 302 4 6
116 Swaziland 302 17 33
116 Thailand 302 3 5
119 Philippines 299 -4 -5
120 Libya 293 -8 -21
121 Angola 292 0 1
121 Liberia 292 -13 -30
123 Ethiopia 288 0 -1
123 Mauritania 288 -14 -33
125 Armenia 285 -15 -31
125 Cuba 285 0 0
125 Kenya 285 -9 -18
128 Sudan 278 0 2
129 Bahrain 271 1 0
129 Guyana 271 3 1
131 Burundi 269 -9 -21
132 Azerbaijan 268 1 -1
133 Vietnam 266 12 38
134 Turkmenistan 264 -7 -13
135 Namibia 263 0 -4
136 Lithuania 261 2 7
137 Georgia 260 -14 -29
138 Tanzania 254 -9 -20
139 Barbados 245 5 14
140 Kuwait 241 0 -3
141 Mauritius 239 13 54
142 FYR Macedonia 237 -1 2
143 Aruba 233 -7 -26
143 Hong Kong 233 0 -1
145 St. Lucia 225 -6 -22
146 Luxembourg 221 0 0
147 New Zealand 220 14 57
148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 211 -7 -24
149 Singapore 207 -1 5
150 Grenada 203 7 24
151 Lebanon 199 7 23
152 São Tomé e Príncipe 197 -2 0
153 Dominican Republic 193 -2 0
154 Lesotho 192 -6 -10
155 Curaçao 191 -3 0
156 Afghanistan 184 -9 -27
157 South Sudan 174 -2 -8
158 Puerto Rico 167 -6 -24
159 Moldova 165 -3 -16
160 Myanmar 161 7 14
161 Comoros 158 -2 -8
162 Guam 151 0 0
162 India 151 0 0
164 Tajikistan 150 0 0
165 Gambia 145 3 0
166 Malta 141 -1 -8
167 Bermuda 135 2 0
168 American Samoa 128 2 0
168 Cook Islands 128 2 0
168 Liechtenstein 128 5 8
168 Samoa 128 2 0
172 Dominica 124 -7 -25
173 Laos 118 3 13
174 Malaysia 116 0 -1
174 New Caledonia 116 17 63
176 Maldives 115 -16 -50
177 Timor-Leste 111 -2 1
178 Yemen 102 -1 0
179 Tahiti 96 17 61
180 Seychelles 94 -1 11
180 Vanuatu 94 1 22
182 Bangladesh 93 -4 6
183 Nepal 77 -3 0
184 Chinese Taipei 70 -2 0
185 Fiji 68 -2 0
185 Solomon Islands 68 7 22
187 Cambodia 67 -4 -1
188 Indonesia 65 -3 0
189 Bhutan 64 -3 0
190 Sri Lanka 58 -3 0
191 Suriname 57 -3 0
192 Pakistan 54 -2 0
193 Montserrat 44 -5 -13
193 US Virgin Islands 44 0 0
195 Macau 42 -1 0
196 Brunei Darussalam 37 -1 0
197 Turks and Caicos Islands 33 0 0
198 Papua New Guinea 30 0 0
199 Cayman Islands 21 0 0
200 San Marino 20 0 0
201 British Virgin Islands 16 0 2
202 Mongolia 4 1 0
203 Andorra 3 -1 -2
204 Anguilla 0 0 0
204 Bahamas 0 0 0
204 Djibouti 0 0 0
204 Eritrea 0 0 0
204 Somalia 0 0 0
204 Tonga 0 0 0

29 comments:

  1. I checked the ranking tools on FIFA.com and realised that even if Hungary win against the Ivory Coast, they'll drop one position. Can you tell me which particular Hungarian game will be excluded from the equation as of June?

    ReplyDelete
  2. First timeframe average of Hungary is more than 600. So any friendly (even a friendly win) in May will drop the FIFA points of Hungary in June.
    Furthermore for the June ranking calculation the friendly draw against Denmark (177 matchpts) on 22/5/14 drops to 3rd timeframe and the friendly win against Czech Republic (522 matchpts) on 1/6/12 drops out of the 4th timeframe.

    ReplyDelete
  3. My personal opinion on the top 10 teams in the World right now -

    1) Argentina
    2) Germany
    3) Belgium
    4) Chile
    5) Uruguay
    6) Spain
    7) France
    8) England
    9) Portugal
    10) Colombia

    France are massively underrated. Brazil are in bad form currently.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Lebanese HarissaMay 7, 2016 at 11:33 AM

    Thanks you for always keep us posted.
    Do you know if the friendly for Lebanon vs Kyrgyzstan on June 2 will be a good thing for our ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A good thing, if you win or draw.

      Delete
  5. Gibraltar and Kosovo are new members of the ranking at the day of 13th May, please make some changes here -.-

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Gibraltar will enter the ranking with 0 points, thus last.

      Kosovo have a friendly with Central African Republic. They will have 19 points for a draw, 57 for a win.

      Delete
    2. Actually Gibraltar won't be entering the ranking before playing a match.

      Kosovo's friendly vs. CAR was apparently canceled.

      Delete
  6. because Australia fell 9 places ?? and if Australia win or draw with England this May she walks a house ??

    ReplyDelete
  7. Ed can you tell me how Mauritius wins 13 places even though they have not played matches for May ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. akeel, the 3 matches (1 win, 2 losses) Mauritius played last year May for the Cosafa Cup 2015 dropped to the second timeframe and are now weighted only half instead of full. This boosts Mauritius' points total from 185 in the May ranking to 239 in the June ranking.
      This process is called devaluation of points and can cause a change in FIFA-points, even if a team does not play any matches the past month.

      Delete
  8. Ed, can you give us the complete ranking for 2 June?

    ReplyDelete
  9. This is the June ranking:
    1 Argentina 1503
    2 Belgium 1384
    3 Colombia 1328
    4 Germany 1310
    5 Chile 1293
    6 Spain 1267
    7 Brazil 1257
    8 Portugal 1181
    9 Uruguay 1150
    10 Austria 1077
    11 England 1069
    12 Italy 982
    13 Ecuador 978
    14 Netherlands 959
    15 Switzerland 948
    16 Mexico 942
    17 France 925
    18 Ukraine 894
    19 Turkey 892
    20 Hungary 886
    20 Bosnia-Herzegovina 886
    22 Romania 878
    23 Costa Rica 853
    24 Slovakia 852
    25 Northern Ireland 851
    26 Wales 846
    27 Croatia 842
    27 Poland 842
    29 Russia 828
    30 Czech Republic 815
    31 USA 803
    32 Algeria 786
    33 Republic of Ireland 768
    34 Iceland 751
    35 Sweden 735
    36 Cote d'Ivoire 732
    37 Ghana 728
    38 Denmark 697
    39 Greece 696
    40 Iran 688
    41 Senegal 677
    42 Albania 667
    43 Scotland 659
    44 Paraguay 638
    45 Egypt 631
    46 Jamaica 630
    47 Tunisia 629
    48 Peru 623
    49 Cape Verde Islands 620
    50 Korea Republic 603
    51 Norway 593
    52 Congo DR 590
    53 Japan 581
    54 Serbia 576
    55 Guinea 573
    56 Panama 572
    57 Slovenia 567
    58 Cameroon 566
    59 Australia 563
    60 Congo 560
    61 Nigeria 559
    62 Morocco 555
    63 Mali 554
    64 Trinidad and Tobago 550
    65 Saudi Arabia 545
    66 Uzbekistan 544
    67 Finland 536
    68 South Africa 529
    69 Bulgaria 518
    70 United Arab Emirates 517
    71 Israel 513
    72 Uganda 500
    73 Burkina Faso 479
    74 Haiti 478
    75 Benin 473
    76 Equatorial Guinea 466
    77 Venezuela 456
    78 Belarus 442
    79 Zambia 436
    80 Jordan 434
    81 China PR 423
    82 Bolivia 420
    83 Antigua and Barbuda 413
    84 Qatar 407
    84 Cyprus 407
    86 Honduras 393
    87 Botswana 391
    88 Gabon 388
    89 Faroe Islands 383
    90 Montenegro 382
    91 Guatemala 378
    92 St. Kitts and Nevis 374
    93 Canada 363
    94 Estonia 360
    95 Togo 358
    96 Central African Republic 351
    97 Mozambique 349
    98 Korea DPR 348
    99 El Salvador 342
    100 Oman 338
    101 Syria 336
    102 Iraq 334
    103 Rwanda 332
    104 Latvia 330
    105 Nicaragua 329
    106 Chad 326
    107 Malawi 320
    108 Sierra Leone 317
    108 Madagascar 317
    110 Armenia 315
    111 Kyrgyzstan 313
    112 Kazakhstan 312
    113 Palestine 311
    114 Belize 307
    115 Guinea-Bissau 303
    115 Zimbabwe 303
    117 Thailand 302
    117 Niger 302
    117 Swaziland 302
    120 Philippines 299
    121 Mauritania 294
    122 Libya 293
    123 Liberia 292
    123 Angola 292
    125 Ethiopia 288
    126 Cuba 285
    127 Lithuania 282
    128 Sudan 278
    129 Kenya 276
    130 Bahrain 271
    130 Guyana 271
    132 Burundi 269
    133 Vietnam 266
    134 Turkmenistan 264
    135 Namibia 263
    136 Tanzania 261
    137 Georgia 260
    138 Azerbaijan 252
    139 FYR Macedonia 250
    140 Barbados 245
    141 Kuwait 241
    142 Mauritius 239
    143 Aruba 233
    143 Hong Kong 233
    145 St. Lucia 225
    146 Luxembourg 221
    147 New Zealand 220
    148 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 211
    149 Singapore 207
    150 Grenada 203
    151 Lebanon 199
    152 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 197
    153 Dominican Republic 193
    154 Curacao 191
    155 Lesotho 185
    156 Afghanistan 184
    157 South Sudan 174
    158 Puerto Rico 167
    159 Moldova 165
    160 Guam 164
    161 Myanmar 161
    162 Comoros 158
    163 India 151
    164 Tajikistan 150
    165 Gambia 145
    166 Malta 141
    167 Bermuda 135
    168 American Samoa 128
    168 Cook Islands 128
    168 Samoa 128
    168 Liechtenstein 128
    172 Dominica 124
    173 Malaysia 116
    174 Laos 115
    174 Maldives 115
    176 Solomon Islands 110
    177 Timor-Leste 106
    178 Yemen 102
    179 Tahiti 96
    180 Seychelles 94
    181 Bangladesh 93
    182 Nepal 77
    183 New Caledonia 74
    184 Cambodia 73
    185 Vanuatu 72
    186 Fiji 68
    187 Indonesia 65
    188 Bhutan 64
    189 Sri Lanka 58
    190 Suriname 57
    191 Chinese Taipei 56
    192 Pakistan 54
    193 Papua New Guinea 51
    194 Montserrat 44
    194 US Virgin Islands 44
    196 Macau 42
    197 Brunei Darussalam 37
    198 Turks and Caicos Islands 33
    199 Cayman Islands 21
    200 San Marino 20
    201 British Virgin Islands 16
    202 Andorra 11
    203 Mongolia 4
    204 Kosovo 0
    204 Gibraltar 0
    204 Tonga 0
    204 Eritrea 0
    204 Somalia 0
    204 Djibouti 0
    204 Bahamas 0
    204 Anguilla 0

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks! I have one question though. FIFA awarded Turkey a win vs Greece for their friendly in November 2015. Shouldn't Turkey have 919 points and switch positions with Ukraine?

      Delete
    2. I hadn't noticed that awarded match before (and would only have stumbled upon it when I compare my ranking to FIFA's), so it must be changed this last month. This means the matchpoints for that match will be calculated with the May 2016 ranking. Turkey: 919 pts on spot 18, Greece: 678 pts on spot 40.

      I knew it was a trick question, to ask for a ranking you can perfectly calculate yourself :D

      Delete
    3. No, no, I only calculate the rankings for the top 30 and I needed the full rankings for the July calculations. So it wasn't a trick question. ;) My calculation techniques in Excel are rather rudimentary and you'd be probably disgusted if you saw them. :) I always check what I got with your's and Edgar's calculations.

      BTW, the decision on Turkey-Greece was made 3 days ago:
      http://www.fifa.com/governance/news/y=2016/m=5/news=greece-sanctioned-for-fielding-ineligible-player-in-friendly-2792710.html

      Delete
    4. ok, I believe you :) Thanks for the link and for the coming tournament: Go Croatia Go !!

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the support! Given the guy who is currently our coach, I'm not an optimist, even on the question of passing the group stage. But I will allow myself to be surprised. :)

      Delete
    6. Hey Ed can you give me average point of each timeframe for Germany? I tried calculating but it was 1310.51
      12330/16 => 770.63 => 154.13
      5593.5/10 => 559.35 => 167.81
      17296.8/15 => 1153.12 => 576.56
      3708.045/9 => 412.01
      total: 1310.51

      what's wrong with it?

      Delete
    7. Not much Dinh. Just don't round the results of each division and multiplication and you will see that you end at 1310.495 = 1310.

      Delete
    8. oh nơ I know why there's always 0.01 or 0.02 difference from final points when I calculate myself. tks Ed

      Delete
  10. Guy's interested in your thoughts.

    To those who get so worked up about the rankings I always say they should be used to Group teams by bands. And bands of 10 seem appropriate.

    If you are 8Th you are a top band team, 12Th you are second band and so on.

    The ranking shouldn't be seen as 3Rd is obviously better than 4Th because they don't play enough games.

    When viewed as bands I believe the rankings are pretty spot on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FIFA ranking needs a major overhaul, not patching here and there.

      Delete
  11. How you calculate malaysia ranking ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. cycle date opponent matchpts
      4 8-6-2012 SIN 43,000
      4 12-6-2012 SIN 129,000
      4 11-9-2012 VIE 0,000
      4 16-10-2012 HKG 129,000
      4 3-11-2012 VIE 0,000
      4 7-11-2012 THA 0,000
      4 14-11-2012 HKG 43,000
      4 20-11-2012 BAN 43,000
      4 25-11-2012 SIN 0,000
      4 28-11-2012 LAO 129,000
      4 1-12-2012 IDN 129,000
      4 9-12-2012 THA 43,000
      4 13-12-2012 THA 0,000
      4 6-2-2013 QAT 0,000
      4 22-3-2013 YEM 322,500
      3 10-9-2013 CHN 0,000
      3 15-10-2013 BHR 169,850
      3 8-11-2013 KUW 0,000
      3 15-11-2013 BHR 0,000
      3 19-11-2013 QAT 0,000
      3 1-3-2014 PHI 62,780
      3 5-3-2014 YEM 322,500
      3 27-4-2014 PHI 49,020
      2 8-8-2014 TJK 0,000
      2 14-9-2014 IDN 0,000
      2 20-9-2014 CAM 127,500
      2 12-11-2014 SYR 0,000
      2 16-11-2014 VIE 0,000
      2 23-11-2014 MYA 53,550
      2 26-11-2014 THA 0,000
      2 29-11-2014 SIN 127,500
      2 7-12-2014 VIE 0,000
      2 11-12-2014 VIE 158,100
      2 17-12-2014 THA 0,000
      2 20-12-2014 THA 147,900
      2 26-3-2015 OMA 0,000
      1 6-6-2015 HKG 42,500
      1 11-6-2015 TLS 114,750
      1 16-6-2015 PLE 0,000
      1 29-8-2015 BAN 42,500
      1 3-9-2015 UAE 0,000
      1 8-9-2015 KSA 0,000
      1 8-10-2015 LAO 127,500
      1 13-10-2015 TLS 318,750
      1 12-11-2015 PLE 0,000
      1 17-11-2015 UAE 0,000
      1 24-3-2016 KSA 0,000
      1 29-3-2016 MAC 42,500
      1 28-5-2016 MYA 42,500

      cycle pts MP MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
      1 731,000 13 13 56,23 1 56,23
      2 614,550 13 13 47,27 0,5 23,64
      3 604,150 8 8 75,52 0,3 22,66
      4 1010,500 15 15 67,37 0,2 13,47
      MAS 116,00

      Delete
  12. Somethink wrong about Vietnam's ranking. As I caculated, they must have 275 points not 266 points (include match won Syria 2-0 in 31/5). Please reply me, thanks :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Opps *something not somethink

      Delete
    2. this match is after deadline (29/5)

      Delete