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Friday, October 7, 2016

2018 World Cup simulations

Finally found some time and energy today to write the code for the Russia 2018 simulations.

They are based on the current Elo ratings and include results up to 6 October 2016.



The play-offs are also simulated, with a slight twist: I used Elo ratings to seed the UEFA play-off draw.

Taking into account the actual group distribution, these are the teams most likely to make it to Russia:

AFC: Iran, Australia, Korea Republic, Japan
CONCACAF: Mexico, Costa Rica, USA, Panama
CAF: Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia
CONMEBOL: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Colombia, Ecuador
UEFA: Germany, England, Belgium, Spain, France, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, Netherlands, Croatia, Poland, Wales, Denmark

98.07% - Germany
97.96% - Argentina
95.91% - Brazil
92.81% - Mexico
92.12% - England
91.57% - Uruguay
88.19% - Colombia
87.22% - Iran
84.43% - Australia
83.61% - Belgium
83.58% - Spain
82.9% - Costa Rica
80.37% - France
79.26% - USA
79.16% - Korea Republic
78.39% - Italy
76.93% - Portugal
68.23% - Switzerland
65.35% - Netherlands
63.79% - Japan
59.14% - Croatia
57.72% - Ecuador
53.98% - Poland
51.72% - Senegal
51.41% - Côte d'Ivoire
50.71% - Chile
50.7% - Panama
44.64% - Wales
43.95% - Denmark
42.99% - Bosnia and Herzegovina
41.07% - Republic of Ireland
40.92% - Egypt
39.7% - Uzbekistan
35.99% - Algeria
35.84% - Ghana
35.61% - Turkey
35.25% - United Arab Emirates
34.24% - Iceland
32.78% - Saudi Arabia
30.26% - Tunisia
29.99% - South Africa
29.53% - Cameroon
29.34% - Nigeria
27.4% - Austria
26.67% - Guinea
25.6% - Trinidad and Tobago
24.01% - Scotland
23.98% - Honduras
23.63% - Serbia
23.42% - Congo DR
21.48% - Morocco
20.74% - Romania
20.17% - Ukraine
20.05% - Mali
19.65% - Libya
15.44% - Slovakia
13.61% - Czech Republic
13.5% - Syria
13.13% - Uganda
12.97% - Sweden
11.6% - Hungary
10.11% - Congo
9.92% - Greece
9.64% - Cape Verde Islands
8.65% - Burkina Faso
7.94% - Northern Ireland
7.76% - Paraguay
7.06% - Gabon
6.87% - Montenegro
5.71% - New Zealand
5.51% - Albania
5.14% - Zambia
4.28% - Slovenia
3.46% - Qatar
3.33% - Peru
3.05% - China PR
2.54% - Belarus
2.39% - Bulgaria
2.37% - Armenia
2.31% - Norway
1.81% - Iraq
1.04% - Latvia
0.92% - Finland
0.77% - Israel
0.6% - Thailand
0.49% - Kazakhstan
0.44% - Fiji
0.39% - Bolivia
0.24% - Estonia
0.18% - Georgia
0.16% - Lithuania
0.14% - Tahiti
0.13% - Papua New Guinea
0.1% - Kosovo
0.07% - Cyprus
0.05% - Azerbaijan
0.04% - Venezuela
0.01% - Faroe Islands

8 comments:

  1. Could you provide a list with the probabilities to be among the 8 countries in the UEFA playoff? thank you!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Daniel! Perhaps in the November update.

      Delete
  2. See here for an overview of the probabilities before the matches of yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  3. In my simulations the AFC-5th (probably UAE, Uzbekistan or Saudi Arabia) has 53% chance to win the intercontinental play-off against the CONCACAF-4th (probably Panama) 47%.
    The other intercontinental play-off has a more convincing outcome, according to elo: CONMEBOL-5th (probably Chile) 90%, OFC-1st (probably New Zealand) 10%.
    Remember, this was before the match Ecuador-Chile of last night.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks Edgar - it is always good to see how likely the teams are to make the world cup and/or playoffs.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Edgar, I've done my own calcs specific to the conmebol qualifiers.

    I'll draw a line now. The 5Th team will have 28pts or higher. Which is more than usual.

    7 teams into 5 does not go. Conmebol qualifying has been very intriguing this time.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The guys from Argentina are making the best they can to contradict all the rankings. Despite being ranked in the top of most of them this is hardly an average Argentina team.

    ReplyDelete
  7. greece horrible. bosnia almost as bad.
    so unfair. look at iran korea. easy qualification. try europe u would fail to iran.

    ReplyDelete