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Friday, October 21, 2016

AFC MA Ranking update (21 October 2016)

The 2016 edition of the MA ranking, set to be announced at the end of the AFC club competition season, will be used to determine the slot allocations for 2017 and 2018 seasons. This has been announced by the AFC Competitions Committee on 12 April 2016.


See the previous update (14 October).

Club points updated after the end of the AFC CL and AFC Cup semifinals.

FIFA ranking points computed for November 2016, considering scheduled matches as defeats.

Rank - Association - Total - NT Point - Club Points - 2014  Rank

1 Korea Republic 91.889 21.889 70.000 1
2 United Arab Emirates 86.386 18.407 67.978 7
3 Saudi Arabia 85.244 21.815 63.430 2
4 Iran 79.615 30.000 49.615 3
5 Qatar 76.942 13.259 63.682 9
6 Australia 72.473 23.111 49.362 6
7 China PR 72.321 14.704 57.617 8
8 Japan 72.051 19.741 52.310 4
9 Uzbekistan 56.316 19.926 36.390 5
10 Kuwait 36.848 4.333 32.515 11
11 Iraq 36.693 10.074 26.619 10
12 Syria 33.914 12.519 21.396 19
13 Thailand 33.393 7.111 26.282 13
14 Hong Kong 30.984 6.556 24.428 20
15 Jordan 30.933 11.222 19.711 12
16 Malaysia 28.286 5.037 23.249 22
17 Vietnam 28.241 7.519 20.722 15
18 India 28.085 8.037 20.048 23
19 Bahrain 27.599 9.741 17.858 16
20 Lebanon 21.627 6.296 15.331 17
21 Indonesia 20.255 3.407 16.847 18
22 Oman 19.138 9.704 9.434 14
23 Myanmar 17.319 4.852 12.467 21
24 Tajikistan 16.845 7.074 9.771 28
25 Philippines 15.550 9.148 6.402 27
26 Maldives 15.377 6.111 9.266 26
27 Singapore 13.259 4.667 8.592 24
28 Palestine 11.464 7.926 3.538 25
29 Turkmenistan 11.451 7.407 4.043 30
30 Kyrgyzstan 9.818 9.481 0.337 32
31 Korea DPR 8.259 8.259 0.000 31
32 Afghanistan 7.000 7.000 0.000 29
33 Yemen 6.815 6.815 0.000 35
34 Laos 5.762 3.741 2.022 33
35 Chinese Taipei 5.074 5.074 0.000 43
36 Cambodia 4.889 4.889 0.000 42
37 Bangladesh 4.122 3.111 1.011 37
38 Bhutan 3.815 3.815 0.000 46
39 Guam 3.000 3.000 0.000 34
40 Nepal 2.296 2.296 0.000 38
41 Timor-Leste 2.222 2.222 0.000 39
42 Brunei Darussalam 2.111 2.111 0.000 45
43 Pakistan 1.481 1.481 0.000 39
44 Sri Lanka 1.444 1.444 0.000 36
45 Macau 1.407 1.407 0.000 41
46 Mongolia 0.481 0.481 0.000 44

With Al-Ain in the ACL final, UAE are back in 2nd overall, and 1st in the West region.

I've ran 10000 simulations for the remaining club and national team matches. Things have pretty much settled.

Looking at the top 6 in each region, several associations are locked: Korea Republic (1), Uzbekistan (5), Thailand (5), Hong Kong (6).

United Arab Emirates are almost safe in West region's top spot: United Arab Emirates 91.12%, Saudi Arabia 8.79%

Japan now heavy favorites to get 2nd in the East: Japan 77.92%, China PR 19.51%, Australia 2.57%

Philippines chances of a top 24 finish have improved somewhat, but they are still outsiders: Myanmar 96.92%, Tajikistan 90.97%, Philippines 12.11%.

Using the same conditions as those in the 2016 AFC CL (i.e. Kuwait suspended; Iraq, Oman, Bahrain, Lebanon and Syria with no licensed clubs), this is how allocations and qualification shape up - assuming Tajikistan's champions get the license. I also assume Tajikistan will be moved to the East - to have 12 MAs in each region. A slight change - I'm using the average rank over 10000 simulations, not the ranking above.

West

GS = Group Stage
PO = Play-off round
PR2 = 2nd preliminary round
PR1 = 1st preliminary round

Association - GS - PO - PR2 - PR1

United Arab Emirates 3 1 0 0
Saudi Arabia 3 1 0 0
Iran 3 1 0 0
Qatar 2 2 0 0
Uzbekistan 1 2 0 0
Jordan 0 1 0 0

Matches

Play-off round

Al-Wahda (United Arab Emirates) vs. Al-Wehdat (Jordan)
Al-Taawoun (Saudi Arabia) vs. Uzbekistan 3
Esteghlal (Iran)  vs. Al-Sadd (Qatar)
El Jaish (Qatar) vs. Uzbekistan 2

East

Association - GS - PO - PR2 - PR1

Korea Republic 3 1 0 0
Japan 3 1 0 0
China PR 2 1 1 0
Australia 2 1 0 0
Thailand 1 0 2 0
Hong Kong 1 0 1 0
Malaysia 0 0 1 0
Vietnam 0 0 1 0
India 0 0 0 1
Indonesia 0 0 0 1
Myanmar 0 0 0 1
Tajikistan 0 0 0 1

Preliminary round 1

[1] Bengaluru FC (India) vs. Tajikistan 1
[2] Indonesia 1 vs. Yadanarbon (Myanmar)

Preliminary round 2

[3] China PR 4 vs. Match [2] winners
[4] Sukhothai (Thailand) vs. Match [1] winners
[5] Bangkok United (Thailand) vs. Hà Nội T&T (Vietnam)
[6] Southern District (Hong Kong) vs. Johor Darul Ta'zim (Malaysia)

Play-off round

Korea Republic 4 vs. Match [6] winners
Japan 4 vs. Match [5] winners
China PR 3 vs. Match [4] winners
Brisbane Roar (Australia) vs. Match [3] winners

3 comments:

  1. Is Tajiskistan part of the East Zone??? I thought only India and Maldives are part of the East Zone and the rest of South Asian region competes with the West Zone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Tajikistan will be ranked among the West Zone as it is part of the Central Asia and this region plays with the West Zone. Am I right?

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    2. I assume AFC will move Tajikistan to the East, because most likely there will be 13 MAs in the West and 11 in the East. Tajikistan is the Eastern most of those in the West.

      Delete