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Friday, October 28, 2016

FIFA Ranking: November 2016 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the November 2016 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

02/Nov Brunei Darussalam - Timor-Leste X (Friendly)
02/Nov Honduras - Belize 1 (Friendly)
03/Nov Macau - Mongolia X (Friendly)
03/Nov Sri Lanka - Laos X (Friendly)
04/Nov Myanmar - Indonesia X (Friendly)
05/Nov Timor-Leste - Nepal 2 (Friendly)
06/Nov Hong Kong - Guam 1 (Friendly)
06/Nov Jordan - Iraq 1 (Friendly)
06/Nov Korea DPR - Chinese Taipei 1 (Friendly)
06/Nov Laos - Macau 1 (Friendly)
06/Nov Mongolia - Sri Lanka X (Friendly)
07/Nov Tahiti - Solomon Islands 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
08/Nov Nepal - Brunei Darussalam 1 (Friendly)
08/Nov Vietnam - Indonesia 1 (Friendly)
09/Nov Greece - Belarus 1 (Friendly)
09/Nov Guam - Korea DPR 2 (Friendly)
09/Nov Hong Kong - Chinese Taipei 1 (Friendly)
09/Nov Mongolia - Laos 2 (Friendly)
09/Nov Netherlands - Belgium 1 (Friendly)
09/Nov Philippines - Kyrgyzstan 1 (Friendly)
09/Nov Sri Lanka - Macau 1 (Friendly)
09/Nov Tajikistan - Turkmenistan X (Friendly)
10/Nov Brazil - Argentina X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
10/Nov Colombia - Chile 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
10/Nov Lebanon - Palestine 1 (Friendly)
10/Nov Nicaragua - Guatemala 2 (Friendly)
10/Nov Paraguay - Peru X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
10/Nov Qatar - Russia X (Friendly)
10/Nov Togo - Comoros 1 (Friendly)
10/Nov Uruguay - Ecuador 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
10/Nov Uzbekistan - Jordan 1 (Friendly)
10/Nov Venezuela - Bolivia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Armenia - Montenegro X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Czech Republic - Norway 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Denmark - Kazakhstan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov England - Scotland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov France - Sweden 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Honduras - Panama X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Japan - Oman 1 (Friendly)
11/Nov Korea Republic - Canada 1 (Friendly)
11/Nov Libya - Tunisia X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Malta - Slovenia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Northern Ireland - Azerbaijan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Romania - Poland X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov San Marino - Germany 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Slovakia - Lithuania 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov Trinidad and Tobago - Costa Rica 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
11/Nov USA - Mexico X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Albania - Israel 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Austria - Republic of Ireland X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Cameroon - Zambia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Cape Verde Islands - Burkina Faso 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Chinese Taipei - Guam X (Friendly)
12/Nov Croatia - Iceland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Georgia - Moldova 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Hong Kong - Korea DPR 2 (Friendly)
12/Nov Kenya - Mozambique 1 (Friendly)
12/Nov Laos - Timor-Leste 1 (Friendly)
12/Nov Liechtenstein - Italy 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Mali - Gabon 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Morocco - Côte d'Ivoire X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Nepal - Sri Lanka 1 (Friendly)
12/Nov New Zealand - New Caledonia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Nigeria - Algeria 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov South Africa - Senegal X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Spain - FYR Macedonia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Turkey - Kosovo 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Uganda - Congo 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Ukraine - Finland 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
12/Nov Wales - Serbia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Belgium - Estonia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Bulgaria - Belarus 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Cyprus - Gibraltar 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Egypt - Ghana 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Greece - Bosnia and Herzegovina X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Guinea - Congo DR X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Hungary - Andorra 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Jamaica - Suriname 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Nov Luxembourg - Netherlands 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Portugal - Latvia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Solomon Islands - Tahiti X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov St. Kitts and Nevis - Haiti 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Nov Switzerland - Faroe Islands 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
13/Nov Tajikistan - Afghanistan 1 (Friendly)
14/Nov Malaysia - Papua New Guinea X (Friendly)
14/Nov Myanmar - Oman 2 (Friendly)
14/Nov Poland - Slovenia 1 (Friendly)
14/Nov Sri Lanka - Timor-Leste 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Argentina - Colombia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Austria - Slovakia X (Friendly)
15/Nov Bahrain - Kyrgyzstan 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Bolivia - Paraguay X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Chile - Uruguay 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov China PR - Qatar X (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Costa Rica - USA 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Czech Republic - Denmark 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Ecuador - Venezuela 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov England - Spain X (Friendly)
15/Nov France - Côte d'Ivoire 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Guatemala - Nicaragua 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Honduras - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Hungary - Sweden X (Friendly)
15/Nov Italy - Germany X (Friendly)
15/Nov Japan - Saudi Arabia 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Jordan - Lebanon 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Kenya - Liberia 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Korea Republic - Uzbekistan 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Malta - Iceland 2 (Friendly)
15/Nov Morocco - Togo 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov Nepal - Laos 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov New Caledonia - New Zealand 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Northern Ireland - Croatia 2 (Friendly)
15/Nov Panama - Mexico 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Peru - Brazil 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Russia - Romania X (Friendly)
15/Nov Syria - Iran 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Thailand - Australia 2 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
15/Nov Ukraine - Serbia 1 (Friendly)
15/Nov United Arab Emirates - Iraq 1 (FIFA World Cup™ Qualifier)
19/Nov Philippines - Singapore 1 (Friendly)
19/Nov St. Kitts and Nevis - Estonia X (Friendly)
19/Nov Thailand - Indonesia 1 (Friendly)
20/Nov Malaysia - Cambodia 1 (Friendly)
20/Nov Myanmar - Vietnam 2 (Friendly)

11 comments:

  1. Netherlands-Belgium 1.
    May I predict that the elo-prediction for this match is a rather optimistic one ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will look into adding a special factor for Holland's matches :)

      NED's win expectancy is a bit over 0.62, while the border for draw/win is around 0.6183.

      Delete
    2. Well, it turned out (as I expected) that even the draw was hardly deserved for the Netherlands. Belgium was technically much better, although not really effective in the box.

      Delete
  2. Why Libya in 73 rank while it lost 4.0 with congo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not quite sure what I should answer. Margin of victory is not included in the calculation.

      Delete
  3. Hi Ed,

    What will be the possible effect of this to the rankings of ASEAN nations?

    http://www.goal.com/en-my/news/24782/aff-suzuki-cup-2016/2016/11/09/29330562/fifa-to-award-international-ranking-points-to-aff-suzuki-cup

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What are they talking about? AFF Cup has always been included in the calculation of the FIFA ranking. I don't think they have been able to persuade FIFA to upgrade the multiplier (the matches are still friendlies).

      Delete
    2. So there's no difference between a category-A tournament and a friendly tournament? Thanks btw.

      Delete
    3. For the calculation of the ranking the type of match is important, in a categorization from highest value to lowest value: World Cup (4), Continental final and Confed Cup (3), continental qualifier (2.5) and friendly (1). The matches in the AFF Cup have always been categorized as friendlies for the FIFA ranking.
      For the calculation there is no category 'A-tournament', the terminology is unknown in the recipe of the ranking calculation.

      Delete
  4. This is all extremely fascinating, but where are November updates of Nations League?

    ReplyDelete