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Friday, February 17, 2017

2017 Confederation Cup simulations

By request.

The usual 10000 simulations.

First the average points in the group stage.



Mexico      5.4611
Portugal    5.2886
Russia      4.3584
New Zealand 1.5915
------------------
Germany     6.4275
Chile       5.2746
Cameroon    2.7415
Australia   2.3056

Reaching the knock-out stage:

85.71% - Germany
73.12% - Chile
72.47% - Mexico
68.47% - Portugal
49.67% - Russia
22.91% - Cameroon
18.26% - Australia
9.39% - New Zealand

Losing the 3rd place match:

21.85% - Russia
18.75% - Mexico
17.47% - Portugal
10.37% - Chile
9.98% - Cameroon
7.87% - Australia
7.45% - Germany
6.26% - New Zealand

Winning the 3rd place match:

19.48% - Mexico
18.92% - Portugal
18.65% - Chile
17.44% - Germany
11.94% - Russia
6.81% - Cameroon
5.05% - Australia
1.71% - New Zealand

Reaching the final:

60.82% - Germany
44.1% - Chile
34.24% - Mexico
32.08% - Portugal
15.88% - Russia
6.12% - Cameroon
5.34% - Australia
1.42% - New Zealand

Winners:

35.17% - Germany
22.77% - Chile
16.85% - Mexico
15.96% - Portugal
6.22% - Russia
1.49% - Cameroon
1.31% - Australia
0.23% - New Zealand

2 comments:

  1. Neymar won't be playing, so there will be no simulations.

    ReplyDelete
  2. thanks for the analysis

    ReplyDelete