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Friday, December 8, 2017

2018 World Cup: Impact of the draw

Simulations using the actual draw can be found here.

I've simulated 100000 times the draw and the whole tournament.

Here's how the draw changed the probabilities of advancing out of the group stage:


Team - Before the draw - After the draw - Difference

Uruguay 57.355 77.184 19.829
England 67.033 81.512 14.479
Russia 58.721 69.201 10.48
Japan 31.139 41.147 10.008
Egypt 22.8 32.094 9.294
Belgium 75.318 82.605 7.287
Nigeria 23.284 29.466 6.182
Saudi Arabia 15.744 21.521 5.777
Denmark 44.068 48.844 4.776
Serbia 33.134 36.123 2.989
Argentina 79.846 81.339 1.493
Brazil 91.186 92.07 0.884
Germany 91.411 91.621 0.21
Colombia 65.79 65.829 0.039
Iceland 40.121 39.376 -0.745
Korea Republic 27.419 26.306 -1.113
Senegal 34.392 33.145 -1.247
Panama 21.606 19.408 -2.198
Iran 40.593 38.088 -2.505
Tunisia 19.048 16.475 -2.573
Sweden 41.902 39.136 -2.766
France 81.826 78.45 -3.376
Poland 63.397 59.879 -3.518
Costa Rica 31.608 24.988 -6.62
Croatia 56.792 49.819 -6.973
Spain 79.416 72.411 -7.005
Australia 29.039 21.706 -7.333
Morocco 22.998 15.109 -7.889
Portugal 82.528 74.392 -8.136
Peru 59.923 51 -8.923
Mexico 52.995 42.937 -10.058
Switzerland 57.568 46.819 -10.749

Reaching the quarter finals:


England 36.166 56.744 20.578
Belgium 40.021 55.529 15.508
Uruguay 25.965 37.709 11.744
Denmark 18.917 27.328 8.411
France 49.309 56.485 7.176
Brazil 68.851 73.688 4.837
Egypt 6.158 8.781 2.623
Peru 28.537 30.165 1.628
Panama 6.031 7.65 1.619
Tunisia 4.491 5.949 1.458
Serbia 11.787 13.148 1.361
Saudi Arabia 3.502 4.693 1.191
Japan 10.954 11.863 0.909
Iran 16.789 17.679 0.89
Russia 27.746 27.557 -0.189
Australia 9.727 9.384 -0.343
Nigeria 7.158 6.565 -0.593
Portugal 50.481 49.141 -1.34
Morocco 7.186 5.081 -2.105
Spain 52.054 49.359 -2.695
Costa Rica 10.878 8.057 -2.821
Senegal 12.577 9.745 -2.832
Korea Republic 8.817 4.734 -4.083
Iceland 16.049 11.616 -4.433
Colombia 34.76 30.21 -4.55
Poland 26.881 22.31 -4.571
Switzerland 25.909 20.21 -5.699
Argentina 48.183 41.817 -6.366
Germany 67.865 59.861 -8.004
Sweden 17.576 9.205 -8.371
Croatia 25.18 16.64 -8.54
Mexico 23.495 11.097 -12.398

Reaching the semifinals:


Brazil 47.457 59.287 11.83
Uruguay 11.287 20.264 8.977
Portugal 27.713 32.989 5.276
Germany 45.879 48.702 2.823
Spain 31.771 34.462 2.691
Serbia 4.216 6.822 2.606
Iran 6.668 9.004 2.336
Denmark 8.059 10.04 1.981
France 26.701 28.466 1.765
Egypt 1.765 3.184 1.419
Switzerland 11.31 12.174 0.864
Saudi Arabia 0.87 1.36 0.49
Russia 12.46 12.92 0.46
Costa Rica 3.83 4.002 0.172
Morocco 2.237 2.073 -0.164
Tunisia 1.159 0.749 -0.41
Panama 1.668 1.113 -0.555
Nigeria 2.233 1.662 -0.571
Korea Republic 2.858 2.269 -0.589
England 18.264 17.619 -0.645
Australia 3.313 2.565 -0.748
Peru 12.889 11.764 -1.125
Japan 3.896 2.245 -1.651
Sweden 7.118 5.038 -2.08
Belgium 19.181 16.745 -2.436
Iceland 6.217 3.721 -2.496
Senegal 4.619 1.933 -2.686
Mexico 9.947 6.329 -3.618
Croatia 10.713 5.94 -4.773
Poland 10.548 5.594 -4.954
Argentina 25.868 19.586 -6.282
Colombia 17.286 9.379 -7.907

Reaching the final:


Portugal 14.399 19.363 4.964
Uruguay 4.533 9.247 4.714
Brazil 30.985 35.471 4.486
France 13.369 15.896 2.527
Spain 18.576 20.829 2.253
Denmark 3.18 4.553 1.373
Iran 2.58 3.936 1.356
Serbia 1.449 2.036 0.587
Egypt 0.523 0.975 0.452
Saudi Arabia 0.206 0.366 0.16
Peru 5.529 5.673 0.144
Morocco 0.699 0.676 -0.023
Nigeria 0.686 0.593 -0.093
Costa Rica 1.243 1.136 -0.107
Tunisia 0.285 0.137 -0.148
Australia 1.128 0.947 -0.181
Panama 0.468 0.231 -0.237
Korea Republic 0.931 0.613 -0.318
Russia 5.599 5.19 -0.409
Switzerland 4.891 4.401 -0.49
Japan 1.314 0.649 -0.665
Iceland 2.322 1.548 -0.774
Senegal 1.67 0.528 -1.142
Sweden 2.771 1.591 -1.18
England 8.727 7.171 -1.556
Germany 29.385 27.751 -1.634
Croatia 4.489 2.723 -1.766
Argentina 13.179 11.407 -1.772
Mexico 4.181 2.176 -2.005
Poland 3.884 1.837 -2.047
Belgium 8.836 6.746 -2.09
Colombia 7.983 3.604 -4.379

Winning the World Cup:


Brazil 19.37 24.289 4.919
Uruguay 1.772 4.147 2.375
France 6.542 8.854 2.312
Portugal 7.296 9.048 1.752
Denmark 1.276 1.842 0.566
Iran 0.911 1.413 0.502
Spain 10.193 10.543 0.35
Serbia 0.483 0.69 0.207
Egypt 0.124 0.264 0.14
Saudi Arabia 0.05 0.074 0.024
Nigeria 0.189 0.189 0
Morocco 0.222 0.2 -0.022
Tunisia 0.076 0.036 -0.04
Peru 2.39 2.347 -0.043
Costa Rica 0.4 0.356 -0.044
Panama 0.127 0.053 -0.074
Australia 0.376 0.293 -0.083
Korea Republic 0.275 0.171 -0.104
Russia 2.145 1.938 -0.207
Iceland 0.795 0.566 -0.229
Japan 0.449 0.166 -0.283
Switzerland 1.976 1.604 -0.372
Senegal 0.55 0.149 -0.401
Sweden 1.037 0.56 -0.477
England 3.996 3.391 -0.605
Croatia 1.767 1.056 -0.711
Belgium 3.918 3.106 -0.812
Poland 1.455 0.622 -0.833
Mexico 1.678 0.806 -0.872
Argentina 6.473 5.054 -1.419
Colombia 3.569 1.424 -2.145
Germany 18.12 14.749 -3.371

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2 comments:

  1. to me, it would be interesting to know, which round of 16 matches occur at which chances.

    especially, i would like to know the possibility of a brazil v germany encounter at the round of 16.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Marko,

    the top-5 match-ups in the round of 16 (probabilities after 10.000 simulations):

    Groups A - B
    Portugal - Uruguay 26.02%
    Spain - Uruguay 25.92%
    Russia - Spain 20.01%
    Portugal - Russia 18.03%
    Iran - Uruguay 16.22%

    Groups C - D
    Argentina - France 23.65%
    Argentina - Peru 18.96%
    Croatia - France 18.79%
    Argentina - Denmark 18.10%
    France - Iceland 15.67%

    Groups E - F
    Brazil - Germany 28.43%
    Germany -Switzerland 22.03%
    Brazil - Mexico 20.99%
    Brazil - Sweden 19.74%
    Germany - Serbia 16.80%

    Groups G - H
    Belgium - Colombia 22.92%
    Colombia - England 22.87%
    Belgium - Poland 20.00%
    England - Poland 19.15%
    England - Japan 14.90%

    The top-10 match-ups in the quarter finals:
    Brazil - England 15.88%
    Belgium - Brazil 15.02%
    Argentina - Spain 14.56%
    Colombia - Germany 14.05%
    Argentina - Portugal 13.57%
    France - Spain 12.73%
    France - Portugal 11.25%
    Belgium - Germany 10.47%
    England - Germany 10.30%
    Brazil - Colombia 8.68

    The top-10 match-ups in the semi finals:
    Brazil - France 8.54%
    Germany - Spain 8.15%
    Argentina - Germany 7.81%
    Brazil - Spain 7.09%
    Germany - Portugal 6.91%
    Brazil - Portugal 6.58%
    France - Germany 4.96%
    Argentina - Brazil 4.44%
    Brazil - Peru 3.69%
    England - France 3.21%

    The top-10 match-ups in the final:
    Brazil - Germany 7.74%
    Brazil - Spain 3.63%
    France - Germany 3.35%
    Argentina - Brazil 3.27%
    Germany - Spain 2.86%
    Brazil - Portugal 2.84%
    Portugal - Spain 2.33%
    Germany - Portugal 2.19%
    Brazil - Colombia 1.93%
    England - Germany 1.84%

    The top-10 match-ups in the whole knock-out phase of the World Cup:
    Brazil - Germany 37.87%
    Portugal - Uruguay 26.46%
    Spain - Uruguay 26.36%
    Argentina - France 26.27%
    Colombia - England 23.65%
    Belgium - Colombia 23.59%
    Germany - Switzerland 23.32%
    Brazil - Mexico 22.32%
    Brazil - Sweden 20.61%
    Russia - Spain 20.40%

    ReplyDelete