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Monday, June 4, 2018

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Uruguay 53,28 24,51 14,59 7,62
Russia 22,05 31,66 27,06 19,23
Egypt 14,81 24,62 29,26 31,31
Saudi Arabia 9,86 19,21 29,09 41,84


group B       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Spain 40,43 30,40 19,30 9,87
Portugal 36,34 30,77 21,66 11,23
Iran 15,52 23,27 31,03 30,18
Morocco 7,71 15,56 28,01 48,72


group C       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
France 42,69 26,73 19,47 11,11
Peru 25,41 27,21 26,16 21,22
Denmark 20,56 26,92 26,55 25,97
Australia 11,34 19,14 27,82 41,70


group D       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Argentina 45,09 27,00 17,45 10,46
Croatia 24,06 28,74 25,94 21,26
Iceland 18,94 24,94 28,03 28,09
Nigeria 11,91 19,32 28,58 40,19


group E       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Brazil 58,81 24,26 11,58 5,35
Switzerland 18,53 30,82 27,61 23,04
Serbia 12,20 23,53 30,18 34,09
Costa Rica 10,46 21,39 30,63 37,52


group F       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Germany 57,37 24,88 12,10 5,65
Mexico 17,56 28,78 29,03 24,63
Sweden 15,48 27,07 30,16 27,29
Korea Republic 9,59 19,27 28,71 42,43


group G       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Belgium 40,24 31,71 18,45 9,60
England 40,30 31,34 18,87 9,49
Panama 10,42 19,89 32,15 37,54
Tunisia 9,04 17,06 30,53 43,37


group H       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Colombia 38,77 27,09 20,25 13,89
Poland 26,39 27,44 24,67 21,50
Senegal 17,46 22,65 27,96 31,93
Japan 17,38 22,82 27,12 32,68


Round of 16

Brazil E 83,07
Germany F 82,25
Uruguay A 77,79
Argentina D 72,09
Belgium G 71,95
England G 71,64
Spain B 70,83
France C 69,42
Portugal B 67,11
Colombia H 65,86
Poland H 53,83
Russia A 53,71
Croatia D 52,80
Peru C 52,62
Switzerland E 49,35
Denmark C 47,48
Mexico F 46,34
Iceland D 43,88
Sweden F 42,55
Japan H 40,20
Senegal H 40,11
Egypt A 39,43
Iran B 38,79
Serbia E 35,73
Costa Rica E 31,85
Nigeria D 31,23
Australia C 30,48
Panama G 30,31
Saudi Arabia A 29,07
Korea Republic F 28,86
Tunisia G 26,10
Morocco B 23,27


Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Brazil E 58,90 [70,90]
Germany F 57,43 [69,82]
Spain B 57,37 [81,00]
Portugal B 54,20 [80,76]
France C 46,31 [66,71]
Argentina D 46,06 [63,89]
England G 45,12 [62,98]
Belgium G 44,40 [61,71]
Colombia H 38,97 [59,17]
Peru C 27,26 [51,81]
Iran B 27,12 [69,91]
Poland H 25,32 [47,04]
Croatia D 22,95 [43,47]
Denmark C 22,03 [46,40]
Switzerland E 20,72 [41,99]
Uruguay A 19,21 [24,69]
Mexico F 18,96 [40,91]
Iceland D 16,77 [38,22]
Senegal H 15,78 [39,34]
Japan H 15,69 [39,03]
Russia A 15,40 [28,67]
Sweden F 15,38 [36,15]
Morocco B 13,15 [56,51]
Serbia E 11,35 [31,77]
Australia C 10,05 [32,97]
Costa Rica E   9,22 [28,95]
Nigeria D   8,57 [27,44]
Egypt A   8,42 [21,35]
Panama G   8,14 [26,86]
Korea Republic F   8,04 [27,86]
Tunisia G   6,58 [25,21]
Saudi Arabia A   5,13 [17,65]


Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Brazil E 46,17 [78,39]
Germany F 44,72 [77,87]
Spain B 33,59 [58,55]
Portugal B 29,93 [55,22]
France C 28,97 [62,56]
Argentina D 27,74 [60,23]
England G 17,75 [39,34]
Belgium G 17,20 [38,74]
Colombia H 15,81 [40,57]
Peru C 14,58 [53,48]
Croatia D 11,33 [49,37]
Denmark C 10,77 [48,89]
Switzerland E 10,45 [50,43]
Mexico F 10,10 [53,27]
Iran B   9,74 [35,91]
Iceland D   8,18 [48,78]
Poland H   8,06 [31,83]
Sweden F   7,11 [46,23]
Uruguay A   5,55 [28,89]
Russia A   4,61 [29,94]
Serbia E   4,47 [39,38]
Senegal H   4,33 [27,44]
Japan H   4,19 [26,70]
Australia C   4,06 [40,40]
Morocco B   3,83 [29,13]
Costa Rica E   3,62 [39,26]
Nigeria D   3,48 [40,61]
Korea Republic F   3,03 [37,69]
Egypt A   2,42 [28,74]
Panama G   1,64 [20,15]
Tunisia G   1,35 [20,52]
Saudi Arabia A   1,22 [23,78]


Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Brazil E 33,03 [71,54]
Germany F 30,97 [69,25]
Spain B 17,85 [53,14]
Portugal B 15,06 [50,32]
France C 14,68 [50,67]
Argentina D 14,45 [52,09]
England G   8,32 [46,87]
Belgium G   8,24 [47,91]
Colombia H   7,57 [47,88]
Peru C   5,96 [40,88]
Mexico F   4,58 [45,35]
Croatia D   4,49 [39,63]
Switzerland E   4,45 [42,58]
Denmark C   3,81 [35,38]
Iran B   3,35 [34,39]
Poland H   3,05 [37,84]
Sweden F   2,80 [39,38]
Iceland D   2,75 [33,62]
Serbia E   1,67 [37,36]
Senegal H   1,60 [36,95]
Uruguay A   1,52 [27,39]
Japan H   1,29 [30,79]
Costa Rica E   1,23 [33,98]
Russia A   1,23 [26,68]
Australia C   1,23 [30,30]
Korea Republic F   1,02 [33,66]
Morocco B   0,98 [25,59]
Nigeria D   0,98 [28,16]
Egypt A   0,73 [30,17]
Panama G   0,46 [28,05]
Tunisia G   0,40 [29,63]
Saudi Arabia A   0,25 [20,49]


World Champion (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Brazil E 22,18 [67,15]
Germany F 20,09 [64,87]
Spain B   9,70 [54,34]
France C   7,32 [49,86]
Portugal B   7,31 [48,54]
Argentina D   6,94 [48,03]
England G   3,58 [43,03]
Belgium G   3,40 [41,26]
Colombia H   3,12 [41,22]
Peru C   2,30 [38,59]
Croatia D   1,56 [34,74]
Switzerland E   1,54 [34,61]
Mexico F   1,53 [33,41]
Denmark C   1,42 [37,27]
Iran B   1,13 [33,73]
Poland H   1,04 [34,10]
Sweden F   0,82 [29,29]
Iceland D   0,78 [28,36]
Japan H   0,51 [39,53]
Serbia E   0,50 [29,94]
Senegal H   0,45 [28,13]
Costa Rica E   0,42 [34,15]
Uruguay A   0,41 [26,97]
Russia A   0,38 [30,89]
Morocco B   0,34 [34,69]
Australia C   0,33 [26,83]
Korea Republic F   0,28 [27,45]
Nigeria D   0,22 [22,45]
Egypt A   0,13 [17,81]
Panama G   0,12 [26,09]
Tunisia G   0,09 [22,50]
Saudi Arabia A   0,06 [24,00]



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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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