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Monday, June 4, 2018

World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Uruguay 53,28 24,51 14,59 7,62
Russia 22,05 31,66 27,06 19,23
Egypt 14,81 24,62 29,26 31,31
Saudi Arabia 9,86 19,21 29,09 41,84


group B       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Spain 40,43 30,40 19,30 9,87
Portugal 36,34 30,77 21,66 11,23
Iran 15,52 23,27 31,03 30,18
Morocco 7,71 15,56 28,01 48,72


group C       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
France 42,69 26,73 19,47 11,11
Peru 25,41 27,21 26,16 21,22
Denmark 20,56 26,92 26,55 25,97
Australia 11,34 19,14 27,82 41,70


group D       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Argentina 45,09 27,00 17,45 10,46
Croatia 24,06 28,74 25,94 21,26
Iceland 18,94 24,94 28,03 28,09
Nigeria 11,91 19,32 28,58 40,19


group E       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Brazil 58,81 24,26 11,58 5,35
Switzerland 18,53 30,82 27,61 23,04
Serbia 12,20 23,53 30,18 34,09
Costa Rica 10,46 21,39 30,63 37,52


group F       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Germany 57,37 24,88 12,10 5,65
Mexico 17,56 28,78 29,03 24,63
Sweden 15,48 27,07 30,16 27,29
Korea Republic 9,59 19,27 28,71 42,43


group G       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Belgium 40,24 31,71 18,45 9,60
England 40,30 31,34 18,87 9,49
Panama 10,42 19,89 32,15 37,54
Tunisia 9,04 17,06 30,53 43,37


group H       1st       2nd       3rd       4th
Colombia 38,77 27,09 20,25 13,89
Poland 26,39 27,44 24,67 21,50
Senegal 17,46 22,65 27,96 31,93
Japan 17,38 22,82 27,12 32,68


Round of 16

Brazil E 83,07
Germany F 82,25
Uruguay A 77,79
Argentina D 72,09
Belgium G 71,95
England G 71,64
Spain B 70,83
France C 69,42
Portugal B 67,11
Colombia H 65,86
Poland H 53,83
Russia A 53,71
Croatia D 52,80
Peru C 52,62
Switzerland E 49,35
Denmark C 47,48
Mexico F 46,34
Iceland D 43,88
Sweden F 42,55
Japan H 40,20
Senegal H 40,11
Egypt A 39,43
Iran B 38,79
Serbia E 35,73
Costa Rica E 31,85
Nigeria D 31,23
Australia C 30,48
Panama G 30,31
Saudi Arabia A 29,07
Korea Republic F 28,86
Tunisia G 26,10
Morocco B 23,27


Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Brazil E 58,90 [70,90]
Germany F 57,43 [69,82]
Spain B 57,37 [81,00]
Portugal B 54,20 [80,76]
France C 46,31 [66,71]
Argentina D 46,06 [63,89]
England G 45,12 [62,98]
Belgium G 44,40 [61,71]
Colombia H 38,97 [59,17]
Peru C 27,26 [51,81]
Iran B 27,12 [69,91]
Poland H 25,32 [47,04]
Croatia D 22,95 [43,47]
Denmark C 22,03 [46,40]
Switzerland E 20,72 [41,99]
Uruguay A 19,21 [24,69]
Mexico F 18,96 [40,91]
Iceland D 16,77 [38,22]
Senegal H 15,78 [39,34]
Japan H 15,69 [39,03]
Russia A 15,40 [28,67]
Sweden F 15,38 [36,15]
Morocco B 13,15 [56,51]
Serbia E 11,35 [31,77]
Australia C 10,05 [32,97]
Costa Rica E   9,22 [28,95]
Nigeria D   8,57 [27,44]
Egypt A   8,42 [21,35]
Panama G   8,14 [26,86]
Korea Republic F   8,04 [27,86]
Tunisia G   6,58 [25,21]
Saudi Arabia A   5,13 [17,65]


Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Brazil E 46,17 [78,39]
Germany F 44,72 [77,87]
Spain B 33,59 [58,55]
Portugal B 29,93 [55,22]
France C 28,97 [62,56]
Argentina D 27,74 [60,23]
England G 17,75 [39,34]
Belgium G 17,20 [38,74]
Colombia H 15,81 [40,57]
Peru C 14,58 [53,48]
Croatia D 11,33 [49,37]
Denmark C 10,77 [48,89]
Switzerland E 10,45 [50,43]
Mexico F 10,10 [53,27]
Iran B   9,74 [35,91]
Iceland D   8,18 [48,78]
Poland H   8,06 [31,83]
Sweden F   7,11 [46,23]
Uruguay A   5,55 [28,89]
Russia A   4,61 [29,94]
Serbia E   4,47 [39,38]
Senegal H   4,33 [27,44]
Japan H   4,19 [26,70]
Australia C   4,06 [40,40]
Morocco B   3,83 [29,13]
Costa Rica E   3,62 [39,26]
Nigeria D   3,48 [40,61]
Korea Republic F   3,03 [37,69]
Egypt A   2,42 [28,74]
Panama G   1,64 [20,15]
Tunisia G   1,35 [20,52]
Saudi Arabia A   1,22 [23,78]


Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Brazil E 33,03 [71,54]
Germany F 30,97 [69,25]
Spain B 17,85 [53,14]
Portugal B 15,06 [50,32]
France C 14,68 [50,67]
Argentina D 14,45 [52,09]
England G   8,32 [46,87]
Belgium G   8,24 [47,91]
Colombia H   7,57 [47,88]
Peru C   5,96 [40,88]
Mexico F   4,58 [45,35]
Croatia D   4,49 [39,63]
Switzerland E   4,45 [42,58]
Denmark C   3,81 [35,38]
Iran B   3,35 [34,39]
Poland H   3,05 [37,84]
Sweden F   2,80 [39,38]
Iceland D   2,75 [33,62]
Serbia E   1,67 [37,36]
Senegal H   1,60 [36,95]
Uruguay A   1,52 [27,39]
Japan H   1,29 [30,79]
Costa Rica E   1,23 [33,98]
Russia A   1,23 [26,68]
Australia C   1,23 [30,30]
Korea Republic F   1,02 [33,66]
Morocco B   0,98 [25,59]
Nigeria D   0,98 [28,16]
Egypt A   0,73 [30,17]
Panama G   0,46 [28,05]
Tunisia G   0,40 [29,63]
Saudi Arabia A   0,25 [20,49]


World Champion (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Brazil E 22,18 [67,15]
Germany F 20,09 [64,87]
Spain B   9,70 [54,34]
France C   7,32 [49,86]
Portugal B   7,31 [48,54]
Argentina D   6,94 [48,03]
England G   3,58 [43,03]
Belgium G   3,40 [41,26]
Colombia H   3,12 [41,22]
Peru C   2,30 [38,59]
Croatia D   1,56 [34,74]
Switzerland E   1,54 [34,61]
Mexico F   1,53 [33,41]
Denmark C   1,42 [37,27]
Iran B   1,13 [33,73]
Poland H   1,04 [34,10]
Sweden F   0,82 [29,29]
Iceland D   0,78 [28,36]
Japan H   0,51 [39,53]
Serbia E   0,50 [29,94]
Senegal H   0,45 [28,13]
Costa Rica E   0,42 [34,15]
Uruguay A   0,41 [26,97]
Russia A   0,38 [30,89]
Morocco B   0,34 [34,69]
Australia C   0,33 [26,83]
Korea Republic F   0,28 [27,45]
Nigeria D   0,22 [22,45]
Egypt A   0,13 [17,81]
Panama G   0,12 [26,09]
Tunisia G   0,09 [22,50]
Saudi Arabia A   0,06 [24,00]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

1 comment:

  1. Fourteen teams from Europe and South America made it to the second round. From the rest of the world ... two.

    Yet in 2026 Europe and South America will get 22 (possibly 23) spots and the rest of the world will get 24 to 26 spots.

    Ridiculous.

    ReplyDelete