World Cup 2018 simulations (June 2018)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete World Cup tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Uruguay	53,28	24,51	14,59	7,62
Russia	22,05	31,66	27,06	19,23
Egypt	14,81	24,62	29,26	31,31
Saudi Arabia	9,86	19,21	29,09	41,84

group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Spain	40,43	30,40	19,30	9,87
Portugal	36,34	30,77	21,66	11,23
Iran	15,52	23,27	31,03	30,18
Morocco	7,71	15,56	28,01	48,72

group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
France	42,69	26,73	19,47	11,11
Peru	25,41	27,21	26,16	21,22
Denmark	20,56	26,92	26,55	25,97
Australia	11,34	19,14	27,82	41,70

group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Argentina	45,09	27,00	17,45	10,46
Croatia	24,06	28,74	25,94	21,26
Iceland	18,94	24,94	28,03	28,09
Nigeria	11,91	19,32	28,58	40,19

group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Brazil	58,81	24,26	11,58	5,35
Switzerland	18,53	30,82	27,61	23,04
Serbia	12,20	23,53	30,18	34,09
Costa Rica	10,46	21,39	30,63	37,52

group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Germany	57,37	24,88	12,10	5,65
Mexico	17,56	28,78	29,03	24,63
Sweden	15,48	27,07	30,16	27,29
Korea Republic	9,59	19,27	28,71	42,43

group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Belgium	40,24	31,71	18,45	9,60
England	40,30	31,34	18,87	9,49
Panama	10,42	19,89	32,15	37,54
Tunisia	9,04	17,06	30,53	43,37

group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
Colombia	38,77	27,09	20,25	13,89
Poland	26,39	27,44	24,67	21,50
Senegal	17,46	22,65	27,96	31,93
Japan	17,38	22,82	27,12	32,68

Round of 16

Brazil	E	83,07
Germany	F	82,25
Uruguay	A	77,79
Argentina	D	72,09
Belgium	G	71,95
England	G	71,64
Spain	B	70,83
France	C	69,42
Portugal	B	67,11
Colombia	H	65,86
Poland	H	53,83
Russia	A	53,71
Croatia	D	52,80
Peru	C	52,62
Switzerland	E	49,35
Denmark	C	47,48
Mexico	F	46,34
Iceland	D	43,88
Sweden	F	42,55
Japan	H	40,20
Senegal	H	40,11
Egypt	A	39,43
Iran	B	38,79
Serbia	E	35,73
Costa Rica	E	31,85
Nigeria	D	31,23
Australia	C	30,48
Panama	G	30,31
Saudi Arabia	A	29,07
Korea Republic	F	28,86
Tunisia	G	26,10
Morocco	B	23,27

Quarter finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the round of 16)

Brazil	E	58,90	[70,90]
Germany	F	57,43	[69,82]
Spain	B	57,37	[81,00]
Portugal	B	54,20	[80,76]
France	C	46,31	[66,71]
Argentina	D	46,06	[63,89]
England	G	45,12	[62,98]
Belgium	G	44,40	[61,71]
Colombia	H	38,97	[59,17]
Peru	C	27,26	[51,81]
Iran	B	27,12	[69,91]
Poland	H	25,32	[47,04]
Croatia	D	22,95	[43,47]
Denmark	C	22,03	[46,40]
Switzerland	E	20,72	[41,99]
Uruguay	A	19,21	[24,69]
Mexico	F	18,96	[40,91]
Iceland	D	16,77	[38,22]
Senegal	H	15,78	[39,34]
Japan	H	15,69	[39,03]
Russia	A	15,40	[28,67]
Sweden	F	15,38	[36,15]
Morocco	B	13,15	[56,51]
Serbia	E	11,35	[31,77]
Australia	C	10,05	[32,97]
Costa Rica	E	9,22	[28,95]
Nigeria	D	8,57	[27,44]
Egypt	A	8,42	[21,35]
Panama	G	8,14	[26,86]
Korea Republic	F	8,04	[27,86]
Tunisia	G	6,58	[25,21]
Saudi Arabia	A	5,13	[17,65]

Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Brazil	E	46,17	[78,39]
Germany	F	44,72	[77,87]
Spain	B	33,59	[58,55]
Portugal	B	29,93	[55,22]
France	C	28,97	[62,56]
Argentina	D	27,74	[60,23]
England	G	17,75	[39,34]
Belgium	G	17,20	[38,74]
Colombia	H	15,81	[40,57]
Peru	C	14,58	[53,48]
Croatia	D	11,33	[49,37]
Denmark	C	10,77	[48,89]
Switzerland	E	10,45	[50,43]
Mexico	F	10,10	[53,27]
Iran	B	9,74	[35,91]
Iceland	D	8,18	[48,78]
Poland	H	8,06	[31,83]
Sweden	F	7,11	[46,23]
Uruguay	A	5,55	[28,89]
Russia	A	4,61	[29,94]
Serbia	E	4,47	[39,38]
Senegal	H	4,33	[27,44]
Japan	H	4,19	[26,70]
Australia	C	4,06	[40,40]
Morocco	B	3,83	[29,13]
Costa Rica	E	3,62	[39,26]
Nigeria	D	3,48	[40,61]
Korea Republic	F	3,03	[37,69]
Egypt	A	2,42	[28,74]
Panama	G	1,64	[20,15]
Tunisia	G	1,35	[20,52]
Saudi Arabia	A	1,22	[23,78]

Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Brazil	E	33,03	[71,54]
Germany	F	30,97	[69,25]
Spain	B	17,85	[53,14]
Portugal	B	15,06	[50,32]
France	C	14,68	[50,67]
Argentina	D	14,45	[52,09]
England	G	8,32	[46,87]
Belgium	G	8,24	[47,91]
Colombia	H	7,57	[47,88]
Peru	C	5,96	[40,88]
Mexico	F	4,58	[45,35]
Croatia	D	4,49	[39,63]
Switzerland	E	4,45	[42,58]
Denmark	C	3,81	[35,38]
Iran	B	3,35	[34,39]
Poland	H	3,05	[37,84]
Sweden	F	2,80	[39,38]
Iceland	D	2,75	[33,62]
Serbia	E	1,67	[37,36]
Senegal	H	1,60	[36,95]
Uruguay	A	1,52	[27,39]
Japan	H	1,29	[30,79]
Costa Rica	E	1,23	[33,98]
Russia	A	1,23	[26,68]
Australia	C	1,23	[30,30]
Korea Republic	F	1,02	[33,66]
Morocco	B	0,98	[25,59]
Nigeria	D	0,98	[28,16]
Egypt	A	0,73	[30,17]
Panama	G	0,46	[28,05]
Tunisia	G	0,40	[29,63]
Saudi Arabia	A	0,25	[20,49]

World Champion (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Brazil	E	22,18	[67,15]
Germany	F	20,09	[64,87]
Spain	B	9,70	[54,34]
France	C	7,32	[49,86]
Portugal	B	7,31	[48,54]
Argentina	D	6,94	[48,03]
England	G	3,58	[43,03]
Belgium	G	3,40	[41,26]
Colombia	H	3,12	[41,22]
Peru	C	2,30	[38,59]
Croatia	D	1,56	[34,74]
Switzerland	E	1,54	[34,61]
Mexico	F	1,53	[33,41]
Denmark	C	1,42	[37,27]
Iran	B	1,13	[33,73]
Poland	H	1,04	[34,10]
Sweden	F	0,82	[29,29]
Iceland	D	0,78	[28,36]
Japan	H	0,51	[39,53]
Serbia	E	0,50	[29,94]
Senegal	H	0,45	[28,13]
Costa Rica	E	0,42	[34,15]
Uruguay	A	0,41	[26,97]
Russia	A	0,38	[30,89]
Morocco	B	0,34	[34,69]
Australia	C	0,33	[26,83]
Korea Republic	F	0,28	[27,45]
Nigeria	D	0,22	[22,45]
Egypt	A	0,13	[17,81]
Panama	G	0,12	[26,09]
Tunisia	G	0,09	[22,50]
Saudi Arabia	A	0,06	[24,00]

---

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.