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Sunday, September 16, 2018

2020 UEFA EURO qualification seeding: 10000 simulations (15 september 2018)

Here is an update after MD1 and MD2 in the UEFA Nations League 2018/2019 of the probabilities (in %) for each team to end in each pot -generated over 10.000 simulations- with teams ordered by their average UNL-ranking position.
The simulation results before the start of the UNL 2018/2019 and more details about the EURO 2020 qualification can be found here.

The pots are indicated by the dotted lines.

team    pot 1    pot 2    pot 3    pot 4    pot 5    pot 6
Spain 100,00 0,00 0 0 0 0
Belgium 99,97 0,03 0 0 0 0
France 99,88 0,12 0 0 0 0
Portugal 99,45 0,55 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 99,64 0,36 0 0 0 0
Germany 87,56 12,44 0 0 0 0
Poland 85,83 14,17 0 0 0 0
Croatia 77,86 22,14 0 0 0 0
Italy 82,77 17,23 0 0 0 0
Netherlands 74,64 25,36 0 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
England 70,63 29,37 0 0 0 0
Iceland 21,77 78,23 0 0 0 0
Ukraine 0 98,53 1,47 0 0 0
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 98,64 1,36 0 0 0
Denmark 0 90,25 9,75 0 0 0
Russia 0 81,94 18,06 0 0 0
Wales 0 80,48 19,52 0 0 0
Turkey 0 70,36 29,64 0 0 0
Austria 0 66,82 33,18 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 65,74 34,26 0 0 0
----------------------------------------
Sweden 0 47,70 52,30 0 0 0
Czech Republic 0 35,73 64,27 0 0 0
Northern Ireland 0 34,54 65,46 0 0 0
Republic of Ireland 0 29,27 70,73 0 0 0
Scotland 0 0 87,85 12,15 0 0
Bulgaria 0 0 88,05 11,95 0 0
Finland 0 0 67,10 32,90 0 0
Serbia 0 0 62,07 37,93 0 0
Greece 0 0 46,45 53,55 0 0
Albania 0 0 43,86 56,14 0 0
----------------------------------------
Romania 0 0 41,27 58,73 0 0
Norway 0 0 44,49 55,51 0 0
Montenegro 0 0 33,71 66,29 0 0
Hungary 0 0 37,83 62,17 0 0
Israel 0 0 19,06 80,94 0 0
Cyprus 0 0 11,73 88,27 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 11,97 88,03 0 0
Estonia 0 0 3,99 96,01 0 0
Lithuania 0 0 0,57 99,43 0 0
Georgia 0 0 0 35,45 64,52 0,03
----------------------------------------
FYR Macedonia 0 0 0 39,12 60,83 0,05
Belarus 0 0 0 10,20 89,57 0,23
Luxembourg 0 0 0 9,29 90,65 0,06
Kosovo 0 0 0 3,42 92,95 3,63
Armenia 0 0 0 2,20 95,17 2,63
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0,09 83,95 15,96
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0,17 77,15 22,68
Moldova 0 0 0 0,03 90,75 9,22
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0,00 69,56 30,44
Latvia 0 0 0 0,01 65,32 34,67
----------------------------------------
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0,02 58,99 40,99
Malta 0 0 0 0,00 27,93 72,07
Andorra 0 0 0 0,00 23,59 76,41
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0,00 7,83 92,17
San Marino 0 0 0 0,00 1,24 98,76

Compared to the simulations before the start of the UNL it can be seen that France, Switzerland, Belgium, Portugal and Spain all cemented their pot 1 spot. Iceland was the only one to throw their pot 1 chances down the gutter.
Further down Ukraine and Bosnia-Herzegovina cemented their pot 2 spot with good wins while Sweden had a bad, unexpected result against Turkey that could well make them drop to pot 3.

Bulgaria are firmly on their way to a pot 3 spot, while Georgia and FYR Macedonia made good progress to the last pot 4 spot from League D.

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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