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Sunday, October 21, 2018

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Q simulations (20 October)

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the qualfying phase of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 -generated over 10.000 simulations- after the second match day.
Simulation results after the first match day can be found here.


The 6 teams that played the Hexagonal to qualify for the World Cup 2018 -Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, USA, Honduras and Trinidad and Tobago- are automatically placed in league A and are also qualified for the Gold Cup 2019.


The top 6 of the resulting qualifying ranking also qualify for league A. The next 16 teams (7-22) qualify for league B and the last 12 teams (23-34) qualify for league C. Guatemala does not play these qualifiers because they were suspended by FIFA at the time of the draw.


And last but not least: the top 10 of this ranking also qualifies for the Gold Cup 2019, which will be expanded to 16 teams.


The teams below are sorted by their average ranking position. Presented are the probabilities to qualify for the three leagues A, B and C and also for the Gold Cup 2019.



team   league A   league B   league C  Gold Cup
Haiti 80,68% 19,32% 0,00% 92,74%
Canada 78,59% 21,41% 0,00% 92,47%
Jamaica 72,65% 27,35% 0,00% 92,52%
Curacao 64,61% 35,39% 0,00% 84,91%
Martinique 60,44% 39,56% 0,00% 86,51%
Cuba 48,88% 51,12% 0,00% 74,42%
--------------------------------------
El Salvador 45,57% 54,43% 0,00% 74,45%
Dominican Republic 41,04% 58,96% 0,00% 74,19%
Nicaragua 32,93% 67,07% 0,00% 64,77%
St. Kitts and Nevis 29,13% 70,87% 0,00% 58,72%
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2,52% 89,70% 7,78% 34,51%
Guyana 7,46% 90,24% 2,30% 31,73%
St. Lucia 4,09% 87,60% 8,31% 28,15%
Aruba 8,26% 84,79% 6,95% 21,40%
Suriname 3,50% 91,95% 4,55% 14,31%
Guadeloupe 8,12% 84,82% 7,06% 19,80%
Belize 2,36% 86,09% 11,55% 18,51%
French Guyana 3,55% 85,78% 10,67% 14,60%
Bermuda 4,20% 65,12% 30,68% 12,30%
Antigua and Barbuda 1,37% 70,24% 28,39% 6,69%
Barbados 0,00% 76,83% 23,17% 1,09%
Dominica 0,00% 50,77% 49,23% 0,03%
--------------------------------------
Montserrat 0,05% 35,31% 64,64% 1,18%
Cayman Islands 0,00% 34,65% 65,35% 0,00%
Bahamas 0,00% 27,28% 72,72% 0,00%
Grenada 0,00% 26,25% 73,75% 0,00%
Puerto Rico 0,00% 16,05% 83,95% 0,00%
Bonaire 0,00% 12,13% 87,87% 0,00%
St. Maarten 0,00% 13,27% 86,73% 0,00%
British Virgin Islands 0,00% 6,78% 93,22% 0,00%
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,00% 9,14% 90,86% 0,00%
St. Martin 0,00% 4,41% 95,59% 0,00%
Anguilla 0,00% 2,76% 97,24% 0,00%
US Virgin Islands 0,00% 2,56% 97,44% 0,00%


Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for league A
Cuba 22%
Jamaica 20%
Haiti 20%
St. Kitts and Nevis 15%
Curacao 12%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for league A
Belize -40%
French Guyana -31%
St. Lucia -18%
Guadeloupe -14%
Dominican Republic -2%
Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for league B
Antigua and Barbuda 35%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 34%
Belize 30%
Montserrat 27%
French Guyana 22%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for league B
Bahamas -26%
Grenada -21%
Jamaica -19%
Haiti -19%
Cuba -16%

Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for league C
Bahamas 27%
Grenada 21%
Bonaire 16%
St. Martin 15%
Turks and Caicos Islands 12%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for league C
Antigua and Barbuda -36%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines -36%
Montserrat -27%
Bermuda -22%
Guyana -17%

Top 5 increase (%-points) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 31%
St. Kitts and Nevis 26%
Cuba 26%
Jamaica 16%
Guyana 15%

Top 5 decrease (%-points) in probability to qualify for Gold Cup
Belize -53%
French Guyana -51%
Guadeloupe -25%
St. Lucia -19%
Barbados -8%

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1 comment:

  1. thanks Ed

    The upcoming Match Day #3 will have a lot more even clashes on paper so the next week should see a much clearer picture.

    ReplyDelete