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Sunday, April 14, 2019

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

Last week was the draw for the CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019, played from June 15th to July 7th in the United States with first round group B and C matches played in San José Costa Rica and Kingston Jamaica. The format is expanded to 16 teams, playing in the classic format of 4 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 qualify for the quarter finals.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:




group A          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Mexico 62,86 23,77 10,04 3,33
Canada 20,17 35,03 28,12 16,68
Martinique 11,62 25,50 33,65 29,23
Cuba 5,35 15,70 28,19 50,76
group B          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Costa Rica 67,68 24,19 6,18 1,95
Haiti 24,17 42,68 22,10 11,05
Nicaragua 4,17 17,47 36,82 41,54
Bermuda 3,98 15,66 34,90 45,46
group C          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Jamaica 32,79 29,16 23,85 14,20
Honduras 32,73 29,23 23,63 14,41
El Salvador 26,37 27,26 26,80 19,57
Curacao 8,11 14,35 25,72 51,82
group D          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
USA 69,62 24,48 5,07 0,83
Panama 23,83 43,38 24,07 8,72
Trinidad and Tobago 5,61 24,47 46,00 23,92
Guyana 0,94 7,67 24,86 66,53

Group C is a true group of death, with some opportunities for Curacao. The other top-seeds should have an easy ride to the knock-out phase.

Quarter finals

USA 94,10
Costa Rica 91,87
Mexico 86,63
Panama 67,21
Haiti 66,85
Honduras 61,96
Jamaica 61,95
Canada 55,20
El Salvador 53,63
Martinique 37,12
Trinidad and Tobago 30,08
Curacao 22,46
Nicaragua 21,64
Cuba 21,05
Bermuda 19,64
Guyana 8,61


Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

USA 72,57 [77,12]
Mexico 69,19 [79,87]
Costa Rica 56,15 [61,12]
Panama 51,23 [76,22]
Canada 25,72 [46,59]
Haiti 23,92 [35,78]
Honduras 23,00 [37,12]
Jamaica 21,06 [34,00]
El Salvador 17,84 [33,26]
Martinique 13,59 [36,61]
Trinidad and Tobago 9,31 [30,95]
Cuba 5,38 [25,56]
Nicaragua 3,51 [16,22]
Curacao 3,49 [15,54]
Bermuda 2,54 [12,93]
Guyana 1,50 [17,42]


Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Mexico 52,07 [75,26]
USA 38,37 [52,87]
Costa Rica 27,61 [49,17]
Panama 25,16 [49,11]
Honduras 11,80 [51,30]
Jamaica 10,32 [49,00]
El Salvador 9,21 [51,63]
Canada 8,21 [31,92]
Haiti 6,76 [28,26]
Trinidad and Tobago 3,48 [37,38]
Martinique 3,38 [24,87]
Curacao 1,25 [35,82]
Cuba 0,88 [16,36]
Nicaragua 0,71 [20,23]
Guyana 0,41 [27,33]
Bermuda 0,38 [14,96]


Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Mexico 31,10 [59,73]
USA 18,37 [47,88]
Panama 13,86 [55,09]
Costa Rica 12,42 [44,98]
Honduras 5,23 [44,32]
Jamaica 4,78 [46,32]
El Salvador 4,29 [46,58]
Canada 3,19 [38,86]
Haiti 2,76 [40,83]
Trinidad and Tobago 1,45 [41,67]
Martinique 1,44 [42,60]
Curacao 0,48 [38,40]
Cuba 0,23 [26,14]
Nicaragua 0,21 [29,58]
Guyana 0,15 [36,59]
Bermuda 0,04 [10,53]


The average position amongst CONCACAF-teams in the July 2019 FIFA-ranking:

Mexico 1,339
USA 1,793
Costa Rica 3,005
Jamaica 4,622
Honduras 5,213
El Salvador 6,211
Panama 6,459
Canada 8,131
Curacao 8,669
Trinidad and Tobago 10,014
Haiti 10,550
Antigua and Barbuda 12,127
Nicaragua 13,236
St. Kitts and Nevis 13,635
Guatemala 15,003
Suriname 16,014
Dominican Republic 17,040
Barbados 18,230
Belize 19,250
St. Lucia 20,607
Grenada 21,830
Guyana 23,125
Bermuda 23,140
Dominica 23,514
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 24,514
Cuba 24,665
Puerto Rico 26,067
Aruba 28,000
Montserrat 29,000
US Virgin Islands 30,000
Cayman Islands 31,000
British Virgin Islands 32,000
Turks and Caicos Islands 33,000
Anguilla 34,000
Bahamas 35,000


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

1 comment:

  1. If group C is a "group of death" - not one team is in the top 50 in the FIFA rankings - CONCACAF is in a lot of trouble. At least having some qualifying is a step in the right direction. However, I'm looking forward this summer: U-20 WC, UEFA Nations League finals, Euro 2020 qualifying, Women WC, UEFA U-21 championship.

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