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Sunday, April 14, 2019

Copa America 2019: 10000 simulations (14 April 2019)

On January 24th was the draw for the Copa America 2019, played from June 14th to July 7th in Brazil. This is the last time in the somewhat awkward format of 3 groups of 4 teams. Group numbers 1 and 2 and the two best numbers 3 qualify for the quarter finals.
Next year in 2020 already the Copa America will be expanded to 16 teams and from then be held in the same 4-year cycle as the EURO.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the complete tournament -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.


The group results, ordered by average group position:



group A          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Brazil 78,92 16,52 3,82 0,74
Peru 13,90 39,08 28,65 18,37
Venezuela 5,46 28,42 36,75 29,37
Bolivia 1,72 15,98 30,78 51,52
group B          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Colombia 40,22 29,23 19,28 11,27
Argentina 32,47 28,87 22,34 16,32
Qatar 15,71 22,79 29,73 31,77
Paraguay 11,60 19,11 28,65 40,64
group C          1st         2nd          3rd          4th
Uruguay 39,68 27,74 19,62 12,96
Chile 23,84 26,11 26,05 24,00
Japan 18,85 23,16 26,77 31,22
Ecuador 17,63 22,99 27,56 31,82

Quarter finals

Brazil 98,67
Colombia 84,51
Uruguay 82,61
Argentina 78,14
Peru 69,20
Chile 68,78
Japan 60,91
Ecuador 60,63
Qatar 58,94
Venezuela 54,17
Paraguay 50,46
Bolivia 32,98


Semi finals (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the quarter finals)

Brazil 88,58 [89,77]
Peru 51,24 [74,05]
Colombia 47,75 [56,50]
Uruguay 45,76 [55,39]
Argentina 39,75 [50,87]
Chile 28,82 [41,90]
Japan 21,21 [34,82]
Ecuador 19,34 [31,90]
Venezuela 19,22 [35,48]
Qatar 18,54 [31,46]
Paraguay 12,62 [25,01]
Bolivia 7,17 [21,74]


Final (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the semi finals)

Brazil 69,69 [78,67]
Uruguay 27,40 [59,88]
Colombia 24,85 [52,04]
Peru 22,45 [43,81]
Argentina 17,39 [43,75]
Chile 12,14 [42,12]
Japan 7,31 [34,46]
Ecuador 6,00 [31,02]
Qatar 4,92 [26,54]
Venezuela 4,03 [20,97]
Paraguay 2,82 [22,35]
Bolivia 1,00 [13,95]


Winner (in square brackets the probability when qualified for the final)

Brazil 59,28 [85,06]
Peru 15,45 [68,82]
Colombia 7,03 [28,29]
Uruguay 5,89 [21,50]
Argentina 4,51 [25,93]
Chile 2,45 [20,18]
Venezuela 1,69 [41,94]
Qatar 1,02 [20,73]
Japan 1,01 [13,82]
Ecuador 0,90 [15,00]
Paraguay 0,56 [19,86]
Bolivia 0,21 [21,00]

Overwhelming favourite is Brazil. The Copa America is quite unpredictable though. The last 3 editions of this tournament Brazil couldn't even reach the semi finals and Uruguay and Chile (twice against the other giant Argentina) were the surprising winners.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. Looks like the format for 2020 will be even more awkward, with 2 groups of 6 teams, and top 4 qualifying for quarterfinals!

    ReplyDelete
  2. How come ? With 16 teams participating ?

    ReplyDelete