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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

FIFA ranking: June 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking this Friday June 14th. 

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between April 1st and yesterday the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-05-29 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:0 (Cayman Islands)
2019-05-31 Cayman Islands - Cuba 0:1 (Cayman Islands)
2019-06-07 Guinea - Gambia 0:1 (Morocco)
2019-06-07 Tajikistan - Afghanistan 1:1 (Tajikistan)
2019-06-09 Ghana - Namibia 0:1 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-09 Uganda - Turkmenistan 0:0 (United Arab Emirates)
2019-06-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Canada 0:2 (USA)

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. 

Extra assumption: the I-factor for the UEFA Nations League 2019 knock-out matches is 25.
We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)


Best movers:
9 - Hungary, Armenia, Malaysia

Worst movers:
-9 - Greece
-6 - USA, Bulgaria

Best movers in the top 50:
9 - Hungary
8 - Austria
7 - Czech Republic

Worst movers in the top 50:
-6 - USA
-5 - Serbia
-4 - Wales, Venezuela, Bosnia-Herzegovina


Two teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Senegal (22 - 23 in November 2017)
Kosovo (121 - 127 in April 2019)

One team drops to new lows:
Pakistan (205 - 203 in February 2018)

June 2019 rank - Team - June 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1745.69 0 9,0
2 France 1718.24 0 -16,0
3 Brazil 1680.90 0 5,0
4 England 1637.21 0 -10,0
5 Portugal 1631.09 2 24,0
6 Croatia 1624.88 -1 4,0
7 Spain 1617.43 2 16,0
8 Uruguay 1615.18 -2 2,0
9 Switzerland 1592.88 -1 -11,0
10 Denmark 1589.21 0 3,0
11 Germany 1582.29 2 12,0
11 Argentina 1581.51 0 2,0
13 Colombia 1580.49 -1 7,0
14 Italy 1569.41 3 19,0
15 Chile 1561.46 0 2,0
16 Sweden 1557.67 -2 -9,0
17 Netherlands 1557.30 -1 3,0
17 Mexico 1557.18 1 8,0
19 Poland 1549.91 1 15,0
20 Iran 1518.13 1 2,0
21 Peru 1516.04 0 0,0
22 Senegal 1514.71 1 0,0
23 Wales 1513.54 -4 -25,0
24 Ukraine 1512.50 3 20,0
25 Tunisia 1500.87 3 10,0
26 Austria 1498.01 8 19,0
27 Romania 1497.25 -2 1,0
28 Northern Ireland 1496.19 5 15,0
28 Japan 1495.77 -2 2,0
30 USA 1494.51 -6 -11,0
31 Slovakia 1490.57 1 9,0
32 Republic of Ireland 1489.13 -3 5,0
33 Venezuela 1484.72 -4 1,0
34 Serbia 1477.08 -5 -7,0
35 Iceland 1473.39 5 23,0
36 Paraguay 1467.55 0 1,0
37 Korea Republic 1467.07 0 5,0
37 Turkey 1466.73 2 10,0
39 Costa Rica 1453.09 -1 -5,0
39 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1452.86 -4 -25,0
41 Czech Republic 1448.20 7 24,0
42 Hungary 1441.61 9 23,0
43 Australia 1436.20 -2 -5,0
43 Russia 1435.93 3 11,0
45 Scotland 1432.90 -1 3,0
45 Nigeria 1432.61 -3 -2,0
47 Morocco 1429.28 -2 0,0
47 Norway 1429.02 3 9,0
49 Congo DR 1424.35 -3 -1,0
50 Ghana 1422.67 -1 0,0
51 Cameroon 1403.57 3 5,0
52 Greece 1403.43 -9 -30,0
53 Montenegro 1400.64 -2 -18,0
54 Jamaica 1397.08 2 6,0
55 Qatar 1395.77 0 -2,0
56 Finland 1393.58 4 19,0
57 Bulgaria 1387.64 -6 -31,0
58 Egypt 1384.34 -1 0,0
59 Burkina Faso 1380.56 -1 1,0
60 Ecuador 1375.46 -1 -3,0
61 Honduras 1367.53 0 -1,0
62 Cote d'Ivoire 1366.96 3 2,0
63 Bolivia 1365.14 0 -1,0
63 Mali 1364.66 2 0,0
65 Slovenia 1362.95 -2 -3,0
66 Albania 1362.22 -4 -6,0
67 United Arab Emirates 1359.74 0 0,0
68 Algeria 1350.61 2 3,0
69 Guinea 1343.10 -1 -6,0
70 El Salvador 1341.87 1 -2,0
70 Saudi Arabia 1341.57 2 0,0
72 South Africa 1336.25 1 1,0
73 China PR 1333.49 1 6,0
73 North Macedonia 1333.05 -5 -17,0
75 Panama 1321.74 -1 -5,0
76 Cape Verde Islands 1318.88 0 0,0
77 Iraq 1315.25 -1 -4,0
78 Canada 1314.39 0 0,0
79 Zambia 1302.46 0 0,0
79 Curacao 1302.06 3 6,0
79 Uganda 1301.69 0 0,0
82 Israel 1286.39 2 1,0
82 Belarus 1286.22 -1 -15,0
82 Uzbekistan 1285.81 3 7,0
85 Syria 1278.24 -2 -8,0
86 Oman 1276.63 0 0,0
86 Lebanon 1276.63 0 0,0
88 Benin 1272.83 3 6,0
89 Gabon 1272.19 1 0,0
90 Congo 1265.41 2 0,0
90 Luxembourg 1265.25 -4 -12,0
92 Trinidad and Tobago 1259.73 1 2,0
93 Cyprus 1258.44 -4 -18,0
94 Georgia 1255.23 0 -1,0
95 Kyrgyzstan 1252.37 0 -1,0
96 Vietnam 1232.17 2 5,0
97 Armenia 1229.76 9 24,0
98 Jordan 1229.37 -1 0,0
99 Estonia 1227.98 -3 -12,0
100 Palestine 1224.22 -1 0,0
101 Haiti 1221.24 -1 -2,0
102 India 1219.22 -1 0,0
103 Mauritania 1210.05 0 0,0
104 Niger 1209.12 0 0,0
105 Kenya 1207.15 3 5,0
105 Libya 1206.62 0 0,0
107 Faroe Islands 1200.34 -5 -13,0
108 Madagascar 1198.22 -1 -5,0
109 Zimbabwe 1196.46 1 6,0
110 Azerbaijan 1187.79 -2 -14,0
110 Bahrain 1187.71 1 0,0
112 Central African Republic 1184.32 0 0,0
113 Namibia 1181.55 0 1,0
114 Kazakhstan 1173.78 2 3,0
115 Sierra Leone 1172.13 0 0,0
116 Thailand 1164.79 -2 -9,0
117 Mozambique 1162.70 0 -3,0
118 New Zealand 1157.36 1 0,0
119 Guinea-Bissau 1152.70 -1 -5,0
120 Tajikistan 1151.91 0 -3,0
121 Kosovo 1148.70 6 25,0
122 Korea DPR 1148.45 -1 -4,0
122 Angola 1147.58 0 6,0
124 Antigua and Barbuda 1136.30 -1 0,0
125 Chinese Taipei 1131.73 0 4,0
126 Philippines 1131.41 -2 -4,0
127 Malawi 1127.81 1 6,0
128 Togo 1126.50 -2 0,0
129 Nicaragua 1118.07 0 -2,0
130 Sudan 1106.24 0 0,0
131 Tanzania 1104.80 0 0,0
132 Lithuania 1101.49 0 -1,0
133 St. Kitts and Nevis 1096.26 2 0,0
134 Turkmenistan 1088.93 2 0,0
135 Rwanda 1087.67 3 0,0
136 Burundi 1086.55 0 -2,0
137 Latvia 1085.79 -4 -15,0
138 Myanmar 1084.31 2 4,0
139 Andorra 1081.52 -5 -17,0
140 Solomon Islands 1076.97 -1 -6,0
141 Equatorial Guinea 1074.12 2 0,0
141 Hong Kong 1073.95 0 -4,0
141 Eswatini 1073.80 2 0,0
144 Lesotho 1072.90 -2 -2,0
144 Yemen 1072.76 2 0,0
146 Guatemala 1071.71 -3 -2,0
147 Comoros 1069.54 0 -1,0
148 Botswana 1068.55 0 9,0
149 Afghanistan 1056.86 0 0,0
150 Ethiopia 1048.88 0 0,0
151 Maldives 1046.21 0 0,0
152 Suriname 1045.50 0 0,0
153 Liberia 1043.74 0 0,0
154 Dominican Republic 1027.71 0 0,0
155 New Caledonia 1025.69 0 0,0
156 Kuwait 1022.42 0 0,0
157 Mauritius 1019.84 -1 -2,0
158 Tahiti 1014.51 0 -5,0
159 Malaysia 1009.05 9 23,0
160 Indonesia 1005.43 -1 -3,0
161 Singapore   999.45 -1 1,0
162 Vanuatu   996.67 4 6,0
163 Barbados   996.39 -2 0,0
164 Nepal   994.78 -3 -1,0
165 Gambia   993.66 -2 0,0
165 Belize   993.51 -2 0,0
167 Fiji   992.33 -2 0,0
168 South Sudan   989.48 -1 0,0
169 Cambodia   987.95 4 21,0
170 Moldova   984.62 1 11,0
171 Papua New Guinea   984.00 -2 0,0
172 St. Lucia   974.10 -2 0,0
173 Grenada   972.61 -1 0,0
174 Bermuda   963.63 1 5,0
175 Cuba   960.91 -1 0,0
176 Chad   956.00 1 0,0
177 Dominica   954.30 1 0,0
177 St. Vincent and the Grenadines   953.92 1 0,0
179 Guyana   951.36 -4 -8,0
180 Puerto Rico   940.36 1 0,0
181 Malta   938.59 -1 -4,0
182 Macau   936.13 1 11,0
183 Liechtenstein   921.94 -1 -10,0
183 Bangladesh   921.93 5 13,0
185 Sao Tomé e Príncipe   920.00 0 0,0
186 Bhutan   915.97 0 -1,0
187 Mongolia   914.06 0 -1,0
188 Laos   912.07 -4 -11,0
189 Aruba   909.07 -1 0,0
190 Guam   908.28 3 1,0
190 American Samoa   908.00 0 0,0
190 Cook Islands   908.00 0 0,0
193 Brunei Darussalam   903.90 1 1,0
194 Seychelles   902.47 -4 -6,0
195 Djibouti   896.00 2 0,0
195 Samoa   896.00 2 0,0
197 Montserrat   894.66 2 0,0
198 Gibraltar   892.60 -3 -7,0
199 US Virgin Islands   888.14 1 0,0
200 Timor-Leste   879.43 -5 -21,0
201 Sri Lanka   872.13 1 -14,0
202 Eritrea   868.00 1 0,0
202 Somalia   868.00 1 0,0
202 Tonga   868.00 1 0,0
205 Cayman Islands   867.12 1 0,0
205 Pakistan   866.81 -5 -21,0
205 British Virgin Islands   866.70 1 0,0
208 Turks and Caicos Islands   861.67 0 0,0
209 Anguilla   856.55 0 0,0
210 Bahamas   854.65 0 0,0
211 San Marino   839.45 0 -9,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

23 comments:

  1. Fantastic to see Northern Ireland shoot up 5 places! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  2. Belgium and San Marino are respectively the highest and lowest ranked teams when the ranking will be published on friday. Their next game:

    06/09/2019 San Marino (839.45) - Belgium (1745.69) => Belgium stands to win the minimum, currently 0.75, in a confederation qualifier (I=25).

    Is it correct that only Brazil can overtake Belgium before that game and to do so Brazil would have to win all their games in this year's Copa? Or is it possible for Brazil to drop points and still overtake Belgium at the end of the Copa?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well, elo predicts that Brazil will win the Copa with 6 wins and in that case they will just overtake Belgium at the top of the ranking (1755 vs 1746 pts). Any draw or not reaching the final or even a PSO win in the final will be enough for Belgium to stay first, although in that last situation the difference will be minimal (1745 for Brazil).

    I will soon publish the preview of the July ranking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Massive game coming up.

      Brazil were held to a draw by Venezuela. Belgium to stay first and San Marino will be last in September. No.1 against No.211. Dare I say, it will be the game of the year. Alert the media!

      Delete
  4. Poor Russia, still trying to cope with having their ranking dropped so low due to hosting the World Cup. If 2022 draw was now they would barely sneak int Pot 3.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm having trouble coming up with the new ranking points for France. I came up with the answer of 1718.20 instead of 1718.24. What was the exact beginning value ranking points in France's April 4 fifa rankings. I need to see the calculation of France's last three opponents they played.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. FRA april ranking: 1733,7534
      BOL: 1366,1189; FRA: after friendly against BOL 1734,7339
      TUR: 1461,1690; FRA: after EUROq against TUR 1716,2152
      AND: 1083,5435; FRA: after EUROq against AND 1718,2419

      Delete
    2. Hi, Ed! I need to see the calculation of Barbados' last four opponents they played, please (my points: 996,57.)

      Delete
    3. date - opponent - tournament - I - GF - GA - Es - Es-opp - pts - E
      2019-03-24 - NCA - CNL 2020 Q - 15 - 0 - 1 - 1002,234 - 1119,232 - -5,844 - 996,390
      2019-03-08 - DMA - Friendly 2019 - 5 - 2 - 0 - 999,971 - 950,302 - 2,262 - 1002,234
      2019-03-06 - LCA - Friendly 2019 - 5 - 2 - 0 - 997,601 - 970,622 - 2,371 - 999,971
      2019-03-04 - GRN - Friendly 2019 (awd) - 5 - 3 - 0 - 995,232 - 967,790 - 2,368 - 997,601
      2019-02-28 - VIN - Friendly 2019 - 5 - 0 - 2 - 997,981 - 945,993 - -2,749 - 995,232

      I: I-factor
      GF/GA: goals for/against
      Es: startpoints BRB
      Es-opp: startpoints opponent
      pts: points-exchange for BRB
      E: points BRB after match

      Delete
    4. Thank you, Ed!

      Delete
  6. I've compared my calculations with the published ranking and found that the following adjustments to my calculations had to be made to completely match the ranking:

    - the result of the friendly Algeria-Burundi (June 11th) turned out to be 1:1 instead of the 1:0 that I had found earlier.
    - South Africa, Zimbabwe and Zambia apparently played with a B-team in the COSAFA Cup 2019. All their matches in that cup were excluded from the ranking.
    - the I-factor for the Nations League finals was indeed 25, but apparently this competition is handled by FIFA as a 'final competition' so teams can not lose points in these matches. This leads to England, Switzerland and the Netherlands gaining an extra 15, 12 and 12 points compared to my calculations. Thank you, FIFA :)

    FIFA excluded and I included:
    2019-06-01 ZIM-COM COSAFA Cup 2019 quarter final 2:0
    2019-06-02 RSA-BOT COSAFA Cup 2019 quarter final 2:2 pso 4:5
    2019-06-02 ZAM-MWI COSAFA Cup 2019 quarter final 2:2 pso 4:2
    2019-06-04 UGA-RSA COSAFA Cup 2019 play-off 5th-8th place 1:1 pso 2:4
    2019-06-05 ZIM-ZAM COSAFA Cup 2019 semi final 0:0 pso 2:4
    2019-06-07 RSA-MWI COSAFA Cup 2019 play-off 5th place 0:0 pso 5:4
    2019-06-07 LES-ZIM COSAFA Cup 2019 play-off 3rd place 2:2 pso 4:5
    2019-06-07 CIV-COM friendly 3:1
    2019-06-08 ANG-GNB friendly 2:0
    2019-06-08 BOT-ZAM COSAFA Cup 2019 final 0:1
    2019-06-11 HAI-GUY friendly 3:1

    FIFA included and I excluded:
    2019-06-07 TJK-AFG friendly 1:1
    2019-06-07 GUI-GAM friendly 0:1
    2019-06-09 UGA-TKM friendly 0:0

    With these adjustments 139 matches are included in the June ranking, the same number FIFA presented in their overview.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Well, it sure was fun again! When I saw your calculations at first I thought that you were wrong about the nations league finals, because teams don't lose points in knockout stages in finals tournaments, and so it proved. But anyway, I have all the numbers correct now so I'm happy about that!

    Tajikistan v Afghanistan, Uganda v Uzbekistan and Guinea v Gambia are counted (for now). South Africa and Zimbabwe's matches in the COSAFA Cup were disregarded. In addition, the match between Mozambique (used 11 substitutes) and Eswatini on 10/03 was demoted as 'A' international.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Indeed, Zambia's results from COSAFA Cup also excluded.

      Delete
    2. Well Homer, 'teams don't lose points in knockout stages in final tournaments'. That's correct, but the question is: which tournaments are final tournaments?
      The COSAFA CUP (last year and this year) apparently isn't because teams lose points in the knockout stages of that tournament. Apparently the Nations League is considered a final tournament, but I just wasn't so sure about that beforehand.
      Same question remains for the Confederations Cup (if that cup is scheduled again). Until now I only considered the World Cup and the continental cup finals as such. The Nations League finals is now added to that list.

      Delete
    3. Yes Ed, we need to confirm this point... Important Question: Does FIFA consider the Friendly Tournaments such as Cosafa cup, WAFF, . Etc as final competitions of contininents or Confederation cup Or not?, so the loser in knock out will not lose points? I don't think so, I think that is applied for official Tournaments.

      Delete
  8. Which two soccer matches were included in the April 4th fifa rankings. Bermuda 2-2 Cuba on February 25th closed door game or Eswatini 1-1 Mozambique game on March 10th.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  9. Fifa should think about their ranking procedure. Teams don't lose points in knockout matches of official tournaments. I understand they want to benefit successful teams but there are teams with more opportunities than others.
    Concacaf Gold Cup, Africa Cup of Nations take place every two years. European Championships, Asian Cup only every four years. The copa america takes place in 2019 and 2020 and they go back to regular 4 year span after that. I see more chances for teams like Mexico or teams who are successful on 2 or 3 successive occasions in Africa to move to new heights. Maybe the World Cup finals will equal that a little bit.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Ed
    I'm having trouble coming up with the ranking points for both Laos and Bangladesh. What were the beginning ranking points for both teams the April 4th rankings and the calculations for both teams on games played to come up with the ranking points for the June 14th rankings. I came up with 911.80 for Laos and 921.91 for Bangladesh. Somehow I'm off by .27 for Laos and .02 for Bangladesh.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Have you included two matches between Laos vs Sri Lanka in May?

      Delete
  11. never mind I found my mistake. I was 30 points short on the Sri Lanka beginning value ranking with the matchup against Laos on May 28.

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  12. In the king's cup matches involving Vietnam, Thailand, India and Curacao I came up with correct fifa June ranking points for three of the countries except for Vietnam. Somehow I came up with 1232.18 instead of the 1232.17 that you have. What was the begining ranking point value for Vietnam before the king's cup matchups and the calculation during Vietnam's two opponents.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  13. VIE-THA 1:0; I=10
    start values: VIE 1227,020, THA 1173,845
    end values: VIE 1231,512, THA 1169,354

    VIE-CUW 1:1 CUW PSO Win (so VIE W=0,5; CUW W=0,75); I=10
    start values: VIE 1231,512, CUW 1300,212
    end values: VIE 1232,167, CUW 1302,057

    ReplyDelete