Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (14 April 2019)
Twitter

Wednesday, August 7, 2019

CAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (August 2019)

Next month also starts the African qualification for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar with a first round, consisting of 14 home-and-away play-offs between the 28 lowest ranked African teams. The draw was July 29th.
The fourteen winners join the other 26 African teams to form 10 groups of 4 teams in the second round, a double round robin group stage. First matchdays of the second round will be in the March-window next year. The exact date for the draw of the group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the December 2019 ranking will be used for seeding the draw for the group stage.

This Autumn also the qualifiers for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will start. First in the October-window 4 preliminary home-and-away play-offs will be played. The four winners join 44 other teams in 12 groups of 4 teams which have been drawn earlier last July. In the November-window follow the first two match-days of the group stage, to be played to a finish in Autumn 2020.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the first round in World Cup and in AFCON21 qualifying -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.
A first preview of the December 2019 ranking for African teams will also be presented.


First qualification round World Cup 2022 (probability to win the play-off):

Zimbabwe 93,11
Somalia 6,89
Eswatini 84,20
Djibouti 15,80
Equatorial Guinea 75,58
South Sudan 24,42
Rwanda 74,41
Seychelles 25,59
Namibia 71,44
Eritrea 28,56
Togo 71,12
Comoros 28,88
Guinea-Bissau 66,47
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 33,53
Mozambique 64,76
Mauritius 35,24
Chad 58,90
Sudan 41,10
Gambia 55,80
Angola 44,20
Botswana 54,65
Malawi 45,35
Liberia 53,21
Sierra Leone 46,79
Burundi 52,78
Tanzania 47,22
Ethiopia 51,71
Lesotho 48,29

Preliminary qualification round African Nations Cup 2021 (probability to win the play-off):

Gambia 92,29
Djibouti 7,71
Liberia 65,47
Chad 34,53
South Sudan 61,97
Seychelles 38,03
Mauritius 55,77
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 44,23


complete Group stage qualification African Nations Cup 2021:

group A           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Mali 50,98 26,34 14,90 7,78
Guinea 23,07 30,76 26,48 19,69
Namibia 12,77 20,56 29,64 37,03
Liberia 9,29 15,17 18,60 22,41
Chad 3,89 7,17 10,38 13,09
group B           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Burkina Faso 52,47 30,01 14,57 2,95
Uganda 33,17 38,41 22,95 5,47
Malawi 13,08 25,96 43,98 16,98
South Sudan 0,82 3,55 11,40 46,20
Seychelles 0,46 2,07 7,10 28,40
group C           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Ghana 59,91 32,18 6,76 1,15
South Africa 35,66 48,26 12,72 3,36
Sudan 2,95 12,61 46,77 37,67
Mauritius 0,88 3,92 18,64 32,33
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 0,60 3,03 15,11 25,49
group D           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Congo DR 46,77 27,24 17,03 8,96
Gabon 22,41 27,75 27,40 22,44
Angola 16,84 24,47 29,09 29,60
Gambia 13,61 19,54 24,58 34,56
Djibouti 0,37 1,00 1,90 4,44
group E           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Egypt 75,77 18,17 5,66 0,40
Kenya 13,24 42,90 35,33 8,53
Togo 10,52 34,58 43,51 11,39
Comoros 0,47 4,35 15,50 79,68
group F           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Cameroon 70,84 20,56 6,80 1,80
Cape Verde Islands 18,23 41,21 25,53 15,03
Mozambique 5,82 19,44 34,68 40,06
Rwanda 5,11 18,79 32,99 43,11
group G           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Morocco 86,73 10,13 2,48 0,66
Mauritania 5,32 33,44 32,11 29,13
Central African Republic 4,44 30,46 34,41 30,69
Burundi 3,51 25,97 31,00 39,52
group H           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Algeria 77,89 16,31 4,76 1,04
Zambia 9,88 37,05 31,87 21,20
Zimbabwe 9,00 31,34 34,82 24,84
Botswana 3,23 15,30 28,55 52,92
group I           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Senegal 93,58 5,70 0,63 0,09
Congo 4,20 52,32 28,49 14,99
Guinea-Bissau 1,61 27,51 40,58 30,30
Eswatini 0,61 14,47 30,30 54,62
group J           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Tunisia 62,51 24,63 9,80 3,06
Libya 23,14 37,36 24,91 14,59
Equatorial Guinea 7,67 20,34 33,16 38,83
Tanzania 6,68 17,67 32,13 43,52
group K           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Cote d'Ivoire 77,71 16,16 4,86 1,27
Madagascar 12,56 40,14 29,20 18,10
Niger 6,41 26,35 35,27 31,97
Ethiopia 3,32 17,35 30,67 48,66
group L           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Nigeria 75,56 17,16 5,51 1,77
Benin 14,44 40,81 27,74 17,01
Sierra Leone 6,43 23,52 36,17 33,88
Lesotho 3,57 18,51 30,58 47,34


And finally a preview of the December 2019 ranking for African teams divided in 3 pots of 10 and the rest of the African teams from which pot 4 will be filled. The teams are ordered by average ranking position when qualified for the group stage.

teams        pot1        pot2        pot3        pot4
Senegal 100,00 0 0 0
Tunisia 100,00 0 0 0
Nigeria 100,00 0 0 0
Algeria 100,00 0 0 0
Morocco 100,00 0 0 0
Egypt 99,67 0,33 0 0
Ghana 99,03 0,97 0 0
Cameroon 92,21 7,79 0 0
Cote d'Ivoire 74,90 25,10 0 0
Congo DR 58,20 41,80 0 0
------------------------------------
Mali 51,41 48,59 0 0
Burkina Faso 24,58 75,42 0 0
South Africa 0 100,00 0 0
Guinea 0 100,00 0 0
Cape Verde Islands 0 100,00 0 0
Uganda 0 100,00 0 0
Zambia 0 99,83 0,17 0
Benin 0 99,60 0,40 0
Gabon 0 88,74 11,26 0
Congo 0 75,40 24,60 0
------------------------------------
Madagascar 0 36,34 63,66 0
Libya 0 0,02 99,98 0
Niger 0 0,05 99,95 0
Mauritania 0 0,02 99,98 0
Kenya 0 0 99,98 0,02
Zimbabwe 0 0 92,29 0,82
Central African Republic 0 0 98,56 1,44
Sierra Leone 0 0 44,88 1,91
Mozambique 0 0 59,11 5,65
Namibia 0 0 52,27 19,17
------------------------------------
Angola 0 0 27,80 16,40
Guinea-Bissau 0 0 42,61 23,86
Togo 0 0 43,63 27,49
Malawi 0 0 21,85 23,50
Sudan 0 0 3,93 37,17
Rwanda 0 0 3,73 70,68
Equatorial Guinea 0 0 2,49 73,09
Tanzania 0 0 1,55 45,67
Lesotho 0 0 1,05 47,24
Botswana 0 0 1,29 53,36
Eswatini 0 0 0,97 83,23
Burundi 0 0 0,45 52,33
Liberia 0 0 1,13 52,08
Comoros 0 0 0,28 28,60
Ethiopia 0 0 0,13 51,58
Gambia 0 0 0,02 55,78
Mauritius 0 0 0 35,24
South Sudan 0 0 0 24,42
Chad 0 0 0 58,90
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 0 0 0 33,53
Seychelles 0 0 0 25,59
Djibouti 0 0 0 15,80
Eritrea 0 0 0 28,56
Somalia 0 0 0 6,89


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

No comments:

Post a Comment