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Saturday, September 14, 2019

CONCACAF Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2019)

The first two matchdays for the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 were played last week. 

The day before the first matches would be played CONCACAF announced that this tournament will also serve as qualification for the Gold Cup 2021. But hey, you don't hear me complaining, at least they announced it :)


The top-2 from each group in league A and the winner from each group in league B qualify directly for the continental showpiece (12 teams in total). 

The 4 group thirds from league A, the 4 group runners-up from league B and the 4 group winners of league C continue in two rounds of home-and-away play-offs. 
First the 4 group winners from league C play against the 4 runners-up from league B. The winners of these 4 play-offs play against the 4 group thirds from league A in the second qualifying round.
As it is unknown yet, I've assumed for the simulation that there's a random draw in each group of 4 teams to form the 4 play-offs in both qualification rounds.

The first qualification round will be played in March 2020. The second round follows -together with the CNL-finals (originally scheduled in March)- in June 2020. They will in all probability count for the June 2020 ranking, the seeding ranking for the World Cup qualification for CONCACAF-teams.

As the CNL now serves as direct qualification for the Gold Cup it is no more than logical that the I-factor of the CNL-matches is upgraded to 25 (instead of the regular 15 for Nations League group matches).


See here for more information about the CNL and the results of the initial simulations before the tournament started.

Here are the probabilities (in %) of the whole CNL competition -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A-1           1st          2nd           3rd
USA 60,03 38,59 1,38
Canada 39,97 60,03 0,00
Cuba 0,00 1,38 98,62
group A-2           1st          2nd           3rd
Mexico 93,92 5,19 0,89
Panama 5,08 81,38 13,54
Bermuda 1,00 13,43 85,57
group A-3           1st          2nd           3rd
Honduras 75,26 11,23 13,51
Martinique 15,10 57,75 27,15
Trinidad and Tobago 9,64 31,02 59,34
group A-4           1st          2nd           3rd
Costa Rica 69,44 17,64 12,92
Curacao 24,56 65,58 9,86
Haiti 6,00 16,78 77,22




group B-1           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
French Guyana 54,85 31,25 12,44 1,46
Grenada 36,88 40,58 20,19 2,35
St. Kitts and Nevis 7,16 22,01 45,52 25,31
Belize 1,11 6,16 21,85 70,88
group B-2           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
El Salvador 55,37 35,74 7,34 1,55
Dominican Republic 35,71 42,12 17,52 4,65
St. Lucia 8,15 17,39 51,67 22,79
Montserrat 0,77 4,75 23,47 71,01
group B-3           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Jamaica 98,45 1,48 0,07 0,00
Guyana 0,68 48,98 46,68 3,66
Antigua and Barbuda 0,87 48,95 45,88 4,30
Aruba 0,00 0,59 7,37 92,04
group B-4           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Suriname 79,34 16,91 3,46 0,29
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 16,55 47,54 30,25 5,66
Nicaragua 3,71 29,56 46,43 20,30
Dominica 0,40 5,99 19,86 73,75

group C-1           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Cayman Islands 51,96 41,95 5,13 0,96
Barbados 45,78 45,67 7,73 0,82
US Virgin Islands 1,68 9,00 65,28 24,04
St. Martin 0,58 3,38 21,86 74,18

group C-2           1st          2nd           3rd
Bahamas 65,35 26,37 8,28
Bonaire 30,82 62,19 6,99
British Virgin Islands 3,83 11,44 84,73
group C-3           1st          2nd           3rd
Guatemala 99,90 0,10 0,00
Puerto Rico 0,10 92,44 7,46
Anguilla 0,00 7,46 92,54
group C-4           1st          2nd           3rd
Guadeloupe 99,24 0,76 0,00
St. Maarten 0,42 59,34 40,24
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,34 39,90 59,76



The performance in the Final Four. In the last 3 columns the difference in procent-point compared to the initial simulations:


Final Four         1st        2nd     semis    diff 1st  diff 2nd diff semis
Mexico 57,41 17,15 19,36 3,91 0,59 1,13
USA 14,19 15,44 30,40 -4,03 -2,40 -4,88
Costa Rica 13,03 28,24 28,17 1,03 4,07 3,47
Honduras 6,67 17,54 51,05 2,16 5,02 10,20
Canada 4,96 8,51 26,50 1,81 3,56 7,57
Curacao 1,18 4,98 18,40 0,93 3,34 13,68
Haiti 0,76 2,05 3,19 -3,86 -9,67 -12,99
Panama 0,74 1,12 3,22 -1,31 -2,09 -2,66
Martinique 0,69 3,13 11,28 -0,42 -1,61 -8,78
Trinidad and Tobago 0,35 1,70 7,59 -0,14 -0,68 -5,75
Bermuda 0,02 0,14 0,84 0,01 0,03 0,39
Cuba 0,00 0,00 0,00 -0,09 -0,16 -1,38


Then the Gold Cup 2021 qualification. Presented are the probabilities to:
- lose in the first qualification round
- lose in the second qualification round
- win the second qualification round (qualify for GC)
- qualify for GC directly
- total chance to qualify for GC.
Teams are ordered by the last column.


team           q1           q2    win q2      direct    total Q
Canada 0,00 0,00 0,00 100,00 100,00
Mexico 0,00 0,15 0,74 99,11 99,85
USA 0,00 0,30 1,08 98,62 99,70
Jamaica 0,36 0,37 0,75 98,45 99,20
Costa Rica 0,00 3,07 9,85 87,08 96,93
Honduras 0,00 3,95 9,56 86,49 96,05
Curacao 0,00 3,97 5,89 90,14 96,03
Panama 0,00 4,31 9,23 86,46 95,69
Martinique 0,00 10,02 17,13 72,85 89,98
Suriname 7,01 5,37 4,53 79,34 83,87
Haiti 0,00 21,17 56,05 22,78 78,83
Trinidad and Tobago 0,00 25,01 34,33 40,66 74,99
El Salvador 10,77 10,29 14,68 55,37 70,05
French Guyana 12,47 10,35 8,43 54,85 63,28
Bermuda 0,00 40,31 45,26 14,43 59,69
Cuba 0,00 50,17 48,45 1,38 49,83
Guatemala 24,89 28,68 46,33 0,00 46,33
Dominican Republic 20,12 13,91 8,09 35,71 43,80
Grenada 21,21 13,12 6,25 36,88 43,13
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 23,80 16,35 7,39 16,55 23,94
Guadeloupe 50,92 31,05 17,27 0,00 17,27
St. Kitts and Nevis 9,32 7,53 5,16 7,16 12,32
St. Lucia 9,32 5,70 2,37 8,15 10,52
Antigua and Barbuda 22,72 16,59 9,64 0,87 10,51
Nicaragua 12,91 10,06 6,59 3,71 10,30
Guyana 22,95 16,90 9,13 0,68 9,81
Barbados 27,18 13,03 5,57 0,00 5,57
Cayman Islands 36,57 12,08 3,31 0,00 3,31
Bahamas 49,11 13,44 2,80 0,00 2,80
Belize 3,24 1,88 1,04 1,11 2,15
Bonaire 22,11 6,87 1,84 0,00 1,84
Dominica 3,53 1,70 0,76 0,40 1,16
Montserrat 3,54 0,97 0,24 0,77 1,01
British Virgin Islands 3,17 0,54 0,12 0,00 0,12
Aruba 0,37 0,16 0,06 0,00 0,06
US Virgin Islands 1,31 0,33 0,04 0,00 0,04
Turks and Caicos Islands 0,24 0,08 0,02 0,00 0,02
Puerto Rico 0,06 0,03 0,01 0,00 0,01
St. Maarten 0,34 0,07 0,01 0,00 0,01
St. Martin 0,46 0,12 0,00 0,00 0,00
Anguilla 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00


Finally a preview of the June 2020 ranking for CONCACAF teams, ordered by average ranking position.


team         hex       pot 1       pot 2       pot 3       pot 4
Mexico 100,00 0 0 0 0
USA 100,00 0 0 0 0
Costa Rica 100,00 0 0 0 0
Jamaica 100,00 0 0 0 0
Honduras 94,59 5,41 0 0 0
Canada 33,97 66,03 0 0 0
--------------------------------------
El Salvador 41,58 58,42 0 0 0
Panama 18,67 81,33 0 0 0
Curacao 10,48 89,52 0 0 0
Haiti 0,71 99,29 0 0 0
Trinidad and Tobago 0 100,00 0 0 0
Antigua and Barbuda 0 96,97 3,03 0 0
Guatemala 0 93,66 6,34 0 0
St. Kitts and Nevis 0 60,09 39,91 0 0
--------------------------------------
Suriname 0 36,78 63,22 0 0
Nicaragua 0 11,05 88,95 0 0
Dominican Republic 0 1,42 98,53 0,05 0
Grenada 0 0,01 95,32 4,67 0
Barbados 0 0,01 88,98 11,01 0
Bermuda 0 0 89,25 10,75 0
Belize 0 0,01 62,64 37,35 0
St. Lucia 0 0 57,02 42,98 0
--------------------------------------
Guyana 0 0 48,52 51,48 0
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 0 0 46,07 53,93 0
Cuba 0 0 9,50 90,50 0
Puerto Rico 0 0 0,28 99,72 0
Dominica 0 0 2,28 97,70 0,02
Cayman Islands 0 0 0,14 91,62 8,24
Montserrat 0 0 0,01 97,63 2,36
Aruba 0 0 0,01 71,22 28,77
--------------------------------------
Bahamas 0 0 0 19,37 80,63
Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0 0,04 99,96
US Virgin Islands 0 0 0 14,78 85,22
British Virgin Islands 0 0 0 4,85 95,15
Anguilla 0 0 0 0,35 99,65

We will see a close fight for the final spot in the hex between Canada and El Salvador. Panama and Curacao are not that far away in the ranking either.


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

6 comments:

  1. Shouldn't El Salvador (41.58) be the bottom hex team in your June 2020 preview?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not according to my ordering of the teams: that's on average ranking position over all 10000 simulations and there Canada has 7,07 and El Salvador has 7,08. You can see, it's very close :)

      Delete
    2. I see, thanks.
      Would taking into account future friendlies be too convoluted? For example, Mexico and T&T have scheduled a friendly which will be played outside of the IMC: https://nl.soccerway.com/matches/2019/10/02/world/friendlies/mexico/trinidad-and-tobago/3164266/
      Maybe it's not worth it to track down all these low yielding games or to risk including games which FIFA might eventually exclude/which might be cancelled by the teams involved.

      Delete
    3. This simulation is always based on all current scheduled matches with CONCACAF teams involved, friendlies included. I include friendlies according to my 'inclusion' rules anyway.

      Delete
  2. https://www.okotokstoday.ca/national-sports/canada-climbs-fifa-world-soccer-rankings-moves-past-concacaf-rival-panama-1701767 . Nice explanation about the fifa ranking concacaf next month.

    ReplyDelete