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Thursday, October 31, 2019

Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (October 2019)

This November the first two match days of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 will be played, in 12 groups of 4 teams. The group stage is played to a finish in Autumn 2020.
In between, in March and June 2020, the first two match days will be played of the second round of African qualifying for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar. This is also a group stage consisting of 10 groups of 4 teams.

The exact date for the draw of the WCq group stage is not yet known. That will decide which FIFA-ranking will be used to seed the teams. FIFA will probably not publish a ranking in January or February next year, so for now I assume the November 2019 ranking will be used to seed the draw for this group stage.

Here are the probabilities (in %) for the group stage of AFCON21 qualifying -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on ClubElo prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo home win expectancy.

complete Group stage qualification African Nations Cup 2021 with teams ordered by average position in the group:

group A           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Mali 49,72 26,65 15,56 8,07
Guinea 25,25 29,83 25,84 19,08
Namibia 17,22 27,09 30,58 25,11
Chad 7,81 16,43 28,02 47,74
group B           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Burkina Faso 45,07 31,57 18,21 5,15
Uganda 36,32 33,92 23,10 6,66
Malawi 16,64 27,89 38,92 16,55
South Sudan 1,97 6,62 19,77 71,64
group C           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Ghana 53,12 32,87 11,17 2,84
South Africa 38,23 39,84 16,68 5,25
Sudan 6,56 19,48 44,25 29,71
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 2,09 7,81 27,90 62,20
group D           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Congo DR 41,95 28,76 18,66 10,63
Gabon 26,75 28,24 26,11 18,90
Angola 21,72 25,58 27,95 24,75
Gambia 9,58 17,42 27,28 45,72
group E           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Morocco 68,02 20,59 8,11 3,28
Central African Republic 12,27 28,72 30,73 28,28
Mauritania 11,47 27,30 30,75 30,48
Burundi 8,24 23,39 30,41 37,96
group F           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Cameroon 56,83 24,95 12,88 5,34
Cape Verde Islands 21,20 31,90 27,38 19,52
Mozambique 12,19 23,09 29,98 34,74
Rwanda 9,78 20,06 29,76 40,40
group G           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Egypt 63,73 23,94 9,39 2,94
Kenya 18,06 33,60 30,86 17,48
Togo 14,85 30,33 33,36 21,46
Comoros 3,36 12,13 26,39 58,12
group H           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Algeria 66,98 21,81 8,53 2,68
Zambia 16,97 33,60 28,97 20,46
Zimbabwe 11,23 27,83 32,83 28,11
Botswana 4,82 16,76 29,67 48,75
group I           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Senegal 79,73 15,10 4,24 0,93
Congo 11,32 41,45 31,10 16,13
Guinea-Bissau 6,73 30,14 37,14 25,99
Swaziland 2,22 13,31 27,52 56,95
group J           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Tunisia 51,94 27,31 14,23 6,52
Libya 27,00 32,12 24,24 16,64
Equatorial Guinea 10,38 20,70 30,63 38,29
Tanzania 10,68 19,87 30,90 38,55
group K           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Cote d'Ivoire 66,05 21,83 8,83 3,29
Madagascar 17,13 34,94 28,16 19,77
Niger 9,30 23,29 32,32 35,09
Ethiopia 7,52 19,94 30,69 41,85
group L           1st          2nd           3rd           4th
Nigeria 65,79 22,31 8,93 2,97
Benin 18,58 35,72 27,44 18,26
Sierra Leone 9,07 23,42 33,39 34,12
Lesotho 6,56 18,55 30,24 44,65


Then a first preview of the pots for the draw for the AFCON 2021 final tournament. There will be 24 teams, in 6 groups of 4, participating. Teams below are ordered by average FIFA ranking position after the group stage is finished in November 2020:

team       pot 1       pot 2       pot 3       pot 4
Senegal 94,83 0 0 0
Tunisia 79,07 0,18 0 0
Nigeria 87,96 0,14 0 0
Algeria 88,12 0,67 0 0
Morocco 83,91 4,70 0 0
Egypt 60,68 26,99 0 0
---------------------------------------
Ghana 44,45 41,52 0,02 0
Cameroon 29,45 52,32 0,01 0
Cote d'Ivoire 17,93 69,88 0,07 0
Congo DR 5,81 64,69 0,21 0
Mali 4,99 70,84 0,54 0
Burkina Faso 2,65 72,78 1,21 0
---------------------------------------
South Africa 0,08 58,99 19,00 0
Cape Verde Islands 0,03 29,43 23,63 0,01
Uganda 0,02 33,36 36,84 0,02
Guinea 0,02 26,18 28,88 0
Zambia 0 14,53 35,94 0,10
Benin 0 14,60 39,60 0,10
---------------------------------------
Gabon 0 9,93 44,74 0,32
Congo 0 4,05 47,80 0,92
Madagascar 0 2,27 47,37 2,43
Libya 0 0,79 48,74 9,59
Niger 0 0,22 24,83 7,54
Mauritania 0 0,25 28,34 10,18
Mozambique 0 0,25 24,33 10,70
Kenya 0 0,25 34,07 17,34
Central African Republic 0 0,08 22,12 18,79
Sierra Leone 0 0,01 14,25 18,23
Zimbabwe 0 0,05 16,34 22,67
Angola 0 0,03 16,81 30,46
Namibia 0 0,01 15,49 28,81
Guinea-Bissau 0 0 10,37 26,50
Malawi 0 0 8,15 36,38
Togo 0 0,01 6,58 38,59
Rwanda 0 0 1,70 28,14
Sudan 0 0 0,87 25,17
Lesotho 0 0 0,26 24,85
Equatorial Guinea 0 0 0,26 30,82
Tanzania 0 0 0,43 30,12
Burundi 0 0 0,08 31,55
Comoros 0 0 0,06 15,43
Botswana 0 0 0,03 21,55
Swaziland 0 0 0 15,53
Ethiopia 0 0 0,03 27,43
South Sudan 0 0 0 8,59
Gambia 0 0 0 27,00
Chad 0 0 0 24,24
Sao Tomé e Príncipe 0 0 0 9,90


And finally a preview of the November 2019 ranking for African teams, probably used to seed the teams for the draw of the group stage in World Cup qualifying. The teams are ordered by average ranking position.

team       pot 1       pot 2       pot 3       pot 4
Senegal 100,00 0 0 0
Tunisia 100,00 0 0 0
Nigeria 100,00 0 0 0
Algeria 100,00 0 0 0
Morocco 100,00 0 0 0
Egypt 99,80 0,20 0 0
Ghana 99,25 0,75 0 0
Cameroon 93,04 6,96 0 0
Cote d'Ivoire 81,36 18,64 0 0
Congo DR 58,76 41,24 0 0
---------------------------------------
Mali 46,20 53,80 0 0
Burkina Faso 21,59 78,41 0 0
South Africa 0 100,00 0 0
Cape Verde Islands 0 100,00 0 0
Guinea 0 100,00 0 0
Uganda 0 100,00 0 0
Zambia 0 100,00 0 0
Benin 0 100,00 0 0
Gabon 0 98,09 1,91 0
Congo 0 86,27 13,73 0
---------------------------------------
Madagascar 0 15,64 84,36 0
Libya 0 0 100,00 0
Mauritania 0 0 100,00 0
Niger 0 0 100,00 0
Kenya 0 0 99,93 0,07
Mozambique 0 0 96,06 3,94
Central African Republic 0 0 88,39 11,61
Zimbabwe 0 0 69,64 30,36
Namibia 0 0 56,89 43,11
Angola 0 0 52,03 47,97
---------------------------------------
Guinea-Bissau 0 0 43,62 56,38
Malawi 0 0 11,34 88,66
Togo 0 0 11,56 88,44
Rwanda 0 0 0 100,00
Sudan 0 0 0 100,00
Equatorial Guinea 0 0 0 100,00
Tanzania 0 0 0 100,00
Ethiopia 0 0 0 100,00
Liberia 0 0 0 100,00
Djibouti 0 0 0 100,00

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. Algeria are african champions, so they are sure to be seeded in the next AFCON 2021

    ReplyDelete
  2. You are right. If they qualify Algeria as African champion is automatically placed in pot 1. My bad.

    ReplyDelete