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Thursday, November 21, 2019

FIFA ranking: November 2019 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking next Thursday November 28th.

I've assumed that of all NT-matches with two FIFA-members in it and played between October 20th and November 24th (Sunday deadline) the following friendlies will be excluded:
2019-11-05 Malaysia - Maldives 2:1 (in Malaysia)
2019-11-23 Djibouti - Mauritius

In total 182 matches will count for this ranking.

See here for 'my inclusion rules'. 
We will see how many corrections on these assumptions I need :)


Best movers:
11 - Myanmar
9 - Comoros, Kuwait

Worst movers:
-14 - Nicaragua
-10 - Equatorial Guinea
-8 - Romania, Chinese Taipei

Best movers in the top 50:
4 - Serbia, Nigeria, Ghana

Worst movers in the top 50:
-8 - Romania
-6 - Iran
-3 - Jamaica

One team will improve their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (25 - 26 in July 2019)

Three teams will drop to new lows:
Sri Lanka (205 - 203 in October 2019)
US Virgin Islands (207 - 206 in October 2019)
Anguilla (210 - 209 in April 2015)


November 2019 rank - Team - November 2019 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Belgium 1764,51 0 10,0
2 France 1732,57 0 7,0
3 Brazil 1711,76 0 -3,0
4 England 1660,71 0 10,0
5 Uruguay 1645,24 0 3,0
6 Croatia 1642,06 1 11,0
7 Portugal 1639,14 -1 7,0
8 Spain 1635,82 0 11,0
9 Argentina 1623,10 0 6,0
10 Colombia 1622,14 0 7,0
11 Mexico 1620,63 0 8,0
12 Switzerland 1608,27 1 7,0
13 Italy 1606,58 2 14,0
14 Netherlands 1604,18 -2 2,0
15 Germany 1601,55 1 16,0
16 Denmark 1597,57 -2 -1,0
17 Chile 1579,38 0 0,0
17 Sweden 1578,74 1 16,0
19 Poland 1559,33 2 15,0
20 Senegal 1555,42 0 9,0
21 Peru 1543,83 -2 -4,0
22 USA 1539,94 1 10,0
22 Wales 1539,51 2 16,0
24 Ukraine 1537,18 -2 1,0
25 Venezuela 1516,79 1 5,0
26 Austria 1506,73 -1 -13,0
27 Tunisia 1505,72 2 11,0
28 Japan 1500,19 0 2,0
29 Turkey 1493,93 3 4,0
29 Serbia 1493,67 4 9,0
31 Nigeria 1493,29 4 12,0
32 Slovakia 1489,85 -1 -3,0
33 Iran 1488,72 -6 -16,0
34 Republic of Ireland 1485,51 2 6,0
35 Algeria 1482,27 3 13,0
36 Northern Ireland 1475,75 -2 -7,0
37 Romania 1474,91 -8 -20,0
38 Russia 1470,03 -1 -4,0
39 Iceland 1463,56 1 4,0
40 Paraguay 1460,89 1 3,0
41 Korea Republic 1458,55 -2 -7,0
42 Australia 1457,49 2 7,0
43 Morocco 1455,83 -1 -1,0
44 Norway 1451,09 1 10,0
45 Czech Republic 1445,56 -2 -8,0
46 Costa Rica 1441,52 1 6,0
47 Ghana 1439,19 4 13,0
48 Jamaica 1437,39 -3 -4,0
49 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1429,66 -1 -5,0
50 Scotland 1421,92 3 16,0
51 Egypt 1421,18 -2 -12,0
52 Hungary 1416,31 -2 -13,0
53 Cameroon 1412,62 -1 4,0
54 Greece 1409,41 4 21,0
55 Qatar 1398,31 2 7,0
56 Mali 1388,70 3 3,0
56 Congo DR 1388,54 -2 -10,0
58 Finland 1386,24 -3 -9,0
59 Bulgaria 1381,26 2 10,0
59 Burkina Faso 1381,22 1 3,0
61 Cote d'Ivoire 1380,44 -5 -12,0
62 Honduras 1376,81 1 9,0
63 Montenegro 1368,86 -2 -2,0
64 Ecuador 1368,42 -1 0,0
65 Slovenia 1364,53 0 -2,0
66 Albania 1355,72 -1 -11,0
67 Saudi Arabia 1351,39 2 12,0
68 North Macedonia 1346,82 0 3,0
69 El Salvador 1345,73 4 10,0
70 Iraq 1340,36 4 13,0
71 United Arab Emirates 1337,82 -4 -15,0
72 South Africa 1334,10 0 -3,0
73 Canada 1331,20 -4 -8,0
74 Guinea 1327,92 4 11,0
75 China PR 1325,12 -6 -14,0
76 Bolivia 1324,05 -1 0,0
77 Uganda 1321,25 2 10,0
78 Cape Verde Islands 1317,95 -1 -1,0
79 Syria 1314,07 4 22,0
80 Curacao 1312,96 -4 -10,0
81 Panama 1304,23 -1 -6,0
81 Oman 1304,16 3 15,0
83 Gabon 1296,79 4 12,0
84 Benin 1294,63 -2 2,0
85 Uzbekistan 1288,87 0 2,0
86 Haiti 1284,80 2 4,0
87 Zambia 1277,02 -6 -22,0
88 Belarus 1276,22 -2 -10,0
89 Congo 1269,31 3 4,0
89 Lebanon 1268,55 2 3,0
91 Madagascar 1267,43 4 18,0
91 Georgia 1266,63 -1 -7,0
93 Israel 1260,18 -4 -18,0
94 Vietnam 1258,06 3 13,0
95 Cyprus 1250,66 -2 -12,0
96 Kyrgyzstan 1240,08 -2 -12,0
97 Jordan 1237,68 1 2,0
98 Luxembourg 1236,16 -2 -12,0
99 Mauritania 1223,14 6 18,0
100 Bahrain 1219,42 1 -1,0
101 Libya 1214,94 2 4,0
102 Armenia 1213,02 -3 -13,0
103 Estonia 1202,22 1 -7,0
103 Trinidad and Tobago 1201,63 -1 -11,0
105 Mozambique 1199,97 7 14,0
106 Kenya 1199,04 2 3,0
106 Palestine 1198,78 -7 -27,0
108 India 1186,98 -2 -14,0
109 Central African Republic 1183,89 3 -2,0
110 Faroe Islands 1180,56 0 -11,0
111 Zimbabwe 1179,88 6 13,0
112 Niger 1178,98 -5 -19,0
113 Thailand 1178,07 -4 -15,0
114 Azerbaijan 1177,31 -3 -12,0
115 Kosovo 1174,49 -1 -10,0
116 Korea DPR 1169,96 -1 -12,0
117 Namibia 1159,93 2 -3,0
118 Kazakhstan 1155,34 3 -2,0
118 Sierra Leone 1155,15 -1 -12,0
118 Guinea-Bissau 1154,87 5 0,0
121 Tajikistan 1152,15 -5 -16,0
122 New Zealand 1149,43 -1 -8,0
123 Malawi 1140,60 1 1,0
124 Philippines 1135,94 2 2,0
124 Angola 1135,82 -4 -25,0
126 Antigua and Barbuda 1127,35 1 -2,0
126 Togo 1127,21 -2 -13,0
128 Sudan 1111,61 0 1,0
129 Turkmenistan 1106,51 4 23,0
130 Guatemala 1105,94 1 12,0
131 Rwanda 1089,25 -2 -17,0
131 Lithuania 1088,70 1 3,0
133 Comoros 1088,36 9 21,0
134 Tanzania 1086,11 -1 2,0
135 Andorra 1082,14 1 2,0
136 Myanmar 1081,27 11 26,0
137 Latvia 1078,52 6 16,0
138 Chinese Taipei 1078,48 -8 -24,0
139 Hong Kong 1075,13 6 14,0
140 Lesotho 1074,04 -2 -2,0
140 St. Kitts and Nevis 1073,86 -2 -2,0
142 Suriname 1073,30 8 21,0
142 Solomon Islands 1072,78 -2 0,0
144 Yemen 1071,77 -3 2,0
145 Equatorial Guinea 1066,36 -10 -17,0
146 Ethiopia 1061,01 5 12,0
147 Kuwait 1059,36 9 25,0
148 Botswana 1055,44 -2 -2,0
149 Afghanistan 1052,24 0 -2,0
150 Burundi 1048,59 -7 -14,0
151 Nicaragua 1046,59 -14 -30,0
151 Liberia 1046,52 1 0,0
153 Eswatini 1041,93 -6 -13,0
154 Malaysia 1040,02 4 31,0
155 Maldives 1038,31 -1 -1,0
156 New Caledonia 1035,12 -1 0,0
157 Singapore 1020,27 2 12,0
158 Dominican Republic 1019,36 -5 -21,0
159 Gambia 1014,81 7 25,0
159 Grenada 1014,55 1 14,0
161 Tahiti 1014,27 -4 0,0
162 Barbados 1011,04 -2 10,0
163 Fiji 996,27 0 0,0
163 Vanuatu 995,62 0 0,0
165 Papua New Guinea 990,55 0 0,0
166 Guyana 988,40 8 19,0
167 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 985,67 1 0,0
168 Bermuda 984,02 0 -2,0
169 South Sudan 983,43 -7 -14,0
170 Nepal 974,41 -3 -14,0
170 Belize 973,98 -2 -12,0
172 Mauritius 970,28 1 0,0
173 Indonesia 964,07 -2 -11,0
174 Cambodia 963,24 -2 -11,0
175 Moldova 958,79 0 -4,0
176 St. Lucia 953,45 1 0,0
177 Chad 943,20 -1 -12,0
178 Puerto Rico 941,06 0 1,0
179 Cuba 939,74 0 2,0
180 Liechtenstein 926,06 1 -7,0
181 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 922,54 -1 -11,0
182 Macau 922,10 1 0,0
183 Montserrat 920,53 6 10,0
184 Malta 919,19 -2 -5,0
184 Dominica 918,70 3 6,0
186 Djibouti 916,15 -1 0,0
187 Bangladesh 915,32 -3 -5,0
188 Laos 912,07 0 0,0
189 Bhutan 910,96 0 0,0
190 Mongolia 906,89 -4 -8,0
191 Brunei Darussalam 903,90 0 0,0
192 American Samoa 900,27 0 0,0
193 Cayman Islands 896,65 0 2,0
194 Samoa 894,26 0 0,0
195 Bahamas 879,61 6 13,0
196 Timor-Leste 879,43 2 0,0
196 Gibraltar 879,24 0 -3,0
196 Somalia 879,13 2 0,0
199 Guam 872,83 -3 -9,0
200 Seychelles 867,97 0 0,0
201 Aruba 867,44 -6 -18,0
201 Pakistan 866,81 0 0,0
203 Tonga 861,81 1 0,0
203 Turks and Caicos Islands 861,56 1 0,0
205 Sri Lanka 856,35 -2 -8,0
205 Eritrea 855,56 1 0,0
207 US Virgin Islands 844,16 -1 -12,0
208 British Virgin Islands 841,73 0 -12,0
209 San Marino 823,74 0 -7,0
210 Anguilla 820,33 -1 -11,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

14 comments:

  1. How do you have Guatemala under Antigua and Barbuda after they demolished them 8-0 in a friendly and after beating 5-0 Puerto Rico and 5-0 Anguila?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think those results show how flawed this FIFA rankings system can be. ELO has Guatemala at #9 in CONCACAF and A&B at #25 which seems a better indicator of their relevant strength.

      Delete
    2. Forza Azzurri (green? no thanks)November 26, 2019 at 9:37 PM

      The Guatemalan Federation was suspended by FIFA between 2016 and 2018 (this is why Guatemala started the CONCACAF Nations League from league C). At one point Guatemala was ranked between 140 and 150 in the rankings. It will probably take a while before Guatemala gets back where it belongs - around 70 and 80 in the ranking.

      Delete
  2. Malaysia win many teams. Why malaysia not gp up to ranking 150

    ReplyDelete
  3. Necessary adjustments in my assumptions to match my ranking with the just published November ranking:

    FIFA excluded and I included:
    2019-11-07 Egypt - Liberia (friendly 1:0)
    2019-11-07 Nicaragua - Cuba (friendly 0:0)
    2019-11-10 Nicaragua - Cuba (friendly 0:1)
    2019-11-10 Trinidad and Tobago - Anguilla (friendly 15:0)
    2019-11-14 Cambodia - Mongolia (friendly 1:1)
    2019-11-19 Montenegro - Belarus (friendly 2:0)

    FIFA included and I excluded:
    2019-11-23 Djibouti - Mauritius (friendly 3:0, Roon/BA gives Mauritius as a U20 team, Soccerway does not give this match at all)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Ed
    In the new November 28th rankings, I came up with 177 games played. Here are the matches:
    32 world cup qualifying
    50 European Championship qualifying
    25 Concacaf nations League
    48 African cup of Nations Qualifying
    22 Friendlies
    The Fifa November 28 rankings has 184 games played and that leaves the other 7 Friendlies unaccounted for. Here is the link below.
    https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/news/myanmar-on-the-march-as-venezuela-hit-record-high
    Something doesn't make sense.
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  5. 177 Matches count for the ranking and 7 friendlies (the 6 mentioned above and Malaysia-Maldives) were excluded: those together are 184 matches. Don't know why they first mention that 177 matches are played as A-international and later on that 184 matches are played in total. In this period since the October ranking in total 192 matches were played (including non-FIFA member matches) ! Must be a slip of the pen.... :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. Here is the sheet with the detailed points calculation for each team in the November ranking.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi Ed, does this mean points are always rounded up to 3 decimals, but FIFA site displays only values rounded to integers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mick, I think they use unrounded points throughout the complete calculation, like I do. FIFA indeed only displays integer points in the ranking table on their site, using the first decimal to round down (4 and lower) or up (5 and higher).

      Before June 2018 with the old calculation method I've already seen a 0.499995 rounded down, but also a 0.499996 rounded up (!).
      And a 0.5 exactly has been rounded down but also up, which was weird, to say the least. A computation should be done the same, time after time.

      In the new calculation system a 0.5 exactly shouldn't appear anymore, given the formula of the calculation.

      Delete
  8. Hey Ed,

    Will you be providing probabilities for the 2020 Copa America ?

    As well as the probabilities of each team finishing 1st .. 6th in the Group Stage I would be interested to know the average points achieved for each team as well as the average points achieved by the teams finishing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th I each group.

    I expect 5 points from 5 matches to be enough to qualify for the Quarter Finals and it will be interesting to see your insights.

    ReplyDelete