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Sunday, August 16, 2020

FIFA ranking: September 2020 probable ranking

After a 9 months absence of competitive international football (and a half year of any NT football) it seems that the upcoming September FIFA-window will finally see the cautious return of international football: UEFA will start with the UEFA Nations League 2020/21 group matches as scheduled.

CONCACAF published three weeks ago a new format for their World Cup qualification scheduled to start in the October window. Coming wednesday the draw will be performed in Zurich.
AFC on the other hand last week decided to postpone their already rescheduled WC-qualifiers (from March and June to October and November) again to March 2021. A reformatting of their current qualification process seems inevitable with these delays.
OFC published last month a proposal for their WC qualifying format, scheduled to start in March 2021, but not a word about the postponed OFC Nations Cup 2020.
CONMEBOL and CAF were until now also very silent about the start of their WC qualifying campaigns. If they start this year, it will not be earlier than October though.



Beside the first two matchdays in UNL, a handful of friendlies between Asian teams are scheduled. It remains to be seen if these friendlies will be treated in the calculation as played inside a FIFA match window, because FIFA has earlier declared that the September window only is valid for UEFA and CONMEBOL teams. For now I assume the normal I-factor of 10 for these friendlies.

Here is the probable September 2020 ranking, to be published on September 17th.

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 57 currently scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 61 currently scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.

Probable September 2020 rank - Team - Probable September 2020 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Belgium 1773 0 8,0
2 France 1744 0 11,0
3 Brazil 1712 0 0,0
4 England 1664 0 3,0
5 Portugal 1646 2 7,0
6 Uruguay 1645 -1 0,0
7 Spain 1641 1 5,0
8 Croatia 1628 -2 -14,0
9 Argentina 1623 0 0,0
10 Colombia 1622 0 0,0
11 Mexico 1621 0 0,0
12 Netherlands 1619 2 15,0
13 Switzerland 1607 -1 -1,0
14 Italy 1604 -1 -3,0
15 Germany 1602 0 0,0
16 Denmark 1593 0 -5,0
17 Chile 1579 0 0,0
18 Sweden 1574 -1 -5,0
19 Senegal 1555 1 0,0
20 Poland 1551 -1 -8,0
21 Peru 1544 0 0,0
22 Wales 1543 1 3,0
23 USA 1542 -1 0,0
24 Ukraine 1532 0 -5,0
25 Venezuela 1517 0 0,0
26 Tunisia 1506 1 0,0
26 Austria 1506 0 -1,0
28 Slovakia 1501 4 11,0
29 Japan 1500 -1 0,0
30 Serbia 1494 -1 0,0
31 Nigeria 1493 0 0,0
31 Turkey 1493 -2 -1,0
33 Republic of Ireland 1490 1 4,0
34 Iran 1487 -1 -2,0
35 Russia 1484 3 14,0
36 Algeria 1482 -1 0,0
37 Romania 1475 0 0,0
38 Northern Ireland 1468 -2 -8,0
39 Korea Republic 1464 1 0,0
40 Paraguay 1461 1 0,0
41 Norway 1460 3 9,0
42 Australia 1457 0 0,0
42 Iceland 1457 -3 -8,0
44 Morocco 1456 -1 0,0
45 Czech Republic 1446 0 0,0
46 Costa Rica 1439 0 0,0
46 Ghana 1439 0 0,0
48 Jamaica 1438 0 0,0
49 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1426 0 -4,0
50 Egypt 1420 1 0,0
50 Scotland 1420 0 -2,0
52 Cameroon 1413 1 0,0
53 Greece 1406 1 -3,0
54 Hungary 1403 -2 -13,0
55 Qatar 1396 0 0,0
56 Mali 1389 0 0,0
56 Congo DR 1389 0 0,0
58 Finland 1382 0 -4,0
59 Burkina Faso 1381 0 0,0
60 Cote d'Ivoire 1378 1 0,0
61 Bulgaria 1377 -2 -4,0
61 Honduras 1377 1 0,0
63 Montenegro 1369 1 4,0
64 Ecuador 1368 -1 0,0
64 Slovenia 1368 0 3,0
66 Saudi Arabia 1351 1 0,0
66 Albania 1351 0 -5,0
68 El Salvador 1346 1 0,0
69 Iraq 1344 1 0,0
69 North Macedonia 1344 -1 -3,0
71 United Arab Emirates 1338 0 4,0
72 South Africa 1334 -1 0,0
73 Canada 1332 0 0,0
74 Guinea 1328 0 0,0
75 Bolivia 1324 0 0,0
76 China PR 1323 0 0,0
77 Uganda 1321 0 0,0
78 Cape Verde Islands 1318 0 0,0
79 Syria 1314 0 0,0
80 Curacao 1313 0 0,0
81 Panama 1305 0 0,0
82 Oman 1303 0 0,0
83 Gabon 1297 0 0,0
84 Benin 1295 0 0,0
85 Uzbekistan 1292 0 6,0
86 Belarus 1290 1 7,0
87 Haiti 1285 -1 0,0
88 Zambia 1279 0 0,0
89 Georgia 1274 2 7,0
90 Congo 1269 -1 0,0
90 Lebanon 1269 -1 0,0
92 Madagascar 1267 -1 0,0
93 Cyprus 1259 2 8,0
94 Vietnam 1258 0 0,0
95 Israel 1251 -2 -9,0
96 Kyrgyzstan 1240 0 0,0
97 Jordan 1238 0 0,0
98 Bahrain 1225 1 0,0
99 Mauritania 1223 1 0,0
100 Luxembourg 1222 -2 -14,0
101 Libya 1215 0 0,0
101 Armenia 1215 1 2,0
103 Palestine 1204 0 0,0
104 Trinidad and Tobago 1201 1 0,0
105 Mozambique 1200 1 0,0
106 Kenya 1199 1 0,0
107 Estonia 1196 -3 -6,0
108 India 1187 0 0,0
109 Central African Republic 1184 0 0,0
110 Faroe Islands 1183 0 2,0
111 Kosovo 1182 4 8,0
112 Zimbabwe 1180 -1 0,0
113 Azerbaijan 1179 1 2,0
113 Niger 1179 -1 0,0
115 Thailand 1178 -2 0,0
116 Korea DPR 1170 0 0,0
117 Namibia 1160 0 0,0
118 Kazakhstan 1156 0 1,0
119 Sierra Leone 1155 -1 0,0
119 Guinea-Bissau 1155 -1 0,0
121 New Zealand 1149 1 0,0
122 Tajikistan 1145 -1 -7,0
123 Malawi 1141 0 0,0
124 Philippines 1136 0 0,0
124 Angola 1136 0 0,0
126 Antigua and Barbuda 1127 0 0,0
126 Togo 1127 0 0,0
128 Sudan 1112 0 0,0
129 Turkmenistan 1107 0 0,0
130 Guatemala 1104 0 0,0
131 Rwanda 1089 0 0,0
132 Comoros 1088 1 0,0
133 Tanzania 1086 1 0,0
133 Lithuania 1086 -2 -3,0
135 Latvia 1084 2 5,0
136 Myanmar 1081 0 0,0
137 Chinese Taipei 1078 1 0,0
138 Andorra 1076 -3 -6,0
139 Lesotho 1074 0 0,0
139 St. Kitts and Nevis 1074 0 0,0
141 Suriname 1073 0 0,0
141 Solomon Islands 1073 0 0,0
143 Hong Kong 1072 0 0,0
144 Yemen 1071 0 0,0
145 Equatorial Guinea 1066 0 0,0
146 Ethiopia 1061 0 0,0
147 Kuwait 1060 0 0,0
148 Botswana 1055 0 0,0
149 Burundi 1052 0 0,0
149 Afghanistan 1052 0 0,0
151 Nicaragua 1051 0 0,0
152 Liberia 1047 0 0,0
153 Eswatini 1042 0 0,0
154 Malaysia 1040 0 0,0
155 Maldives 1038 0 0,0
156 New Caledonia 1035 0 0,0
157 Singapore 1020 0 0,0
158 Dominican Republic 1019 0 0,0
159 Gambia 1015 0 0,0
159 Grenada 1015 0 0,0
161 Tahiti 1014 0 0,0
162 Barbados 1009 0 0,0
163 Fiji 996 0 0,0
163 Vanuatu 996 0 0,0
165 Papua New Guinea 991 0 0,0
166 Guyana 988 0 0,0
167 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 986 0 0,0
168 South Sudan 983 0 0,0
168 Bermuda 983 0 0,0
170 Nepal 974 0 0,0
170 Belize 974 0 0,0
172 Mauritius 965 0 0,0
173 Indonesia 964 0 0,0
173 Cambodia 964 0 0,0
175 St. Lucia 953 1 0,0
176 Moldova 952 -1 -7,0
177 Chad 943 0 0,0
178 Puerto Rico 941 0 0,0
179 Cuba 936 0 0,0
180 Liechtenstein 932 0 6,0
181 Sao Tomé e Príncipe 923 0 0,0
182 Macau 922 0 0,0
183 Montserrat 921 0 0,0
184 Djibouti 919 0 0,0
184 Dominica 919 0 0,0
186 Malta 918 -2 -1,0
187 Bangladesh 914 0 0,0
188 Laos 912 0 0,0
189 Bhutan 911 0 0,0
190 Mongolia 906 0 0,0
191 Brunei Darussalam 904 0 0,0
192 American Samoa 900 0 0,0
193 Cayman Islands 897 0 0,0
194 Samoa 894 0 0,0
195 Gibraltar 886 1 7,0
196 Bahamas 880 -1 0,0
197 Timor-Leste 879 -1 0,0
197 Somalia 879 -1 0,0
199 Guam 873 0 0,0
200 Aruba 867 0 0,0
200 Pakistan 867 0 0,0
202 Seychelles 866 0 0,0
203 Tonga 862 0 0,0
203 Turks and Caicos Islands 862 0 0,0
205 Eritrea 856 0 0,0
206 Sri Lanka 853 0 0,0
207 US Virgin Islands 844 0 0,0
208 British Virgin Islands 842 0 0,0
209 Anguilla 821 1 0,0
210 San Marino 811 -1 -13,0

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

2 comments:

  1. The Oceania Football Confederations informed immediately, in april, that the OFC Nations Cup will be not postponed, but definitely deleted: https://www.oceaniafootball.com/ofc-nations-cup-cancelled/#:~:text=OFC's%20Executive%20Committee%20has%20agreed,in%20New%20Zealand%20in%20June.
    In the meantime CAF announced yersterday a new schedule for the AFCON qualifiers and the WC qualifiers, starting from october: https://twitter.com/Worldranking_/status/1296383626439925760/photo/1
    The situation of course may get worse and the schedules could be not respected in the next months.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ah, I evidently missed the part about the OFC Nations Cup...
    Saw indeed today the new CAF-schedule with first in November 2020 and March 2021 the conclusion of the CAF Nations Cup qualifying group stage and then in June the start of the WC-qualifiers.

    ReplyDelete