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Sunday, September 27, 2020

FIFA ranking: October 2020 preview

Here are the minimum and maximum points for each team in the October 2020 ranking. FIFA will publish the ranking on October 22nd.


Minimum and maximum points per team are determined with a small piece of software which calculates per match the minimum and maximum possible points for each participating team, given the minimum and maximum starting values of both teams before the match.

Note that only scheduled (and included) matches with both teams known at calculation time are incorporated in this analysis.





About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

18 comments:

  1. Excuse me for the dumb question (certainly answered elsewhere), but why didn't your inclusion-method include BEL-CIV ? The 3,2 pts lost by BEL in that match could really be a rank-changer ; and we're talking about a 1st place changer, here.

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  2. There are no dumb questions, only not asked questions can be categorized as such :)

    I hadn't included BEL-CIV at the moment that I made this preview because the match wasn't listed in both of my sources at that time. And that's my criterion to include a match in my calculations.
    One or two days later it was listed in both my sources and from then on I included this match (as I'm sure FIFA will do in their calculation).

    It's all because FIFA doesn't maintain a public list of their included matches anymore, that I have to make such assumptions.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the reply, and thanks for the job you do here.

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  3. How about Mexico vs Algeria game ?

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  4. Yeah, Mexico-Algeria tomorrow will be included.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you Ed!
      Can you tell me if Algeria will finally enter the top 30 of the ranking? The ranking of Algeria is not consistent with the level of our selection which dominated Mexico at 10 against 11.

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  5. After yesterday's matches Algeria is 30th in the ranking, shared wih Serbia, at 1489 points.

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  6. Hello ,

    What is the new ranking about Tunisia , Senegal and Morocco please ?

    Thank you

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  7. I will publish the final rpeview of the October ranking after tonight's matches

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    Replies
    1. Brother, what is the ranking of Morocco in November

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  8. Preview of the November ranking is more interesting for Uefa teams:)

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  9. Yeah, but I will also soon publish the simulations after the UNL MD's 3 and 4 and there you will find the probabilities for all UEFA teams to land in each pot for the UEFA WC qualification draw. That's even better than a November ranking preview :)

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  10. I couldn't find specific info although I'm sure you have addressed this somewhere- do you run your simulations hot? Updating Elos as the simulations runs along a tournament/month?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, in the simulations the same principle is used as in the FIFA and elo ranking itself: points of each team (both elo points, used for predicting the match result, and the FIFA points) are updated after each simulated match.

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    2. What is the ranking of the Moroccan national team? We beat Senegal 20 in the world

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  11. Where would Wales be after their 3 games mate?! Brill page fair play 👌👍🏻😊🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

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