Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (7 March 2020)
Twitter

Thursday, September 10, 2020

UEFA Nations League 2020 simulations (September 2020)

The first two matchdays in the group stage of the UEFA Nations League 2020-2021 have been played last week in the September window.

After the UNL group matches the November 2020 ranking will then be used to seed the draw of the 10 European qualifying groups for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar.

I've made 10.000 simulations of all the currently scheduled matches for UEFA teams to be played in the October and November windows. All probabilities in %.


First the EURO 2020 qualifying play-offs. I've made earlier simulations of the play-offs in November and December last year and July this year. Per participating team the probability to qualify for the path-final and then to win that final and qualify for EURO 2021:



Path A             to final        qualification
Iceland 70,19 45,23
Romania 29,81 21,31
Bulgaria 66,24 19,08
Hungary 33,76 14,38
Path B              to final        qualification
Slovakia 73,29 38,43
Bosnia-Herzegovina 76,59 35,37
Republic of Ireland 26,71 15,86
Northern Ireland 23,41 10,34
Path C              to final        qualification
Norway 71,20 51,16
Scotland 81,53 23,05
Serbia 28,80 21,63
Israel 18,47 4,16
Path D              to final        qualification
Georgia 77,89 40,53
North Macedonia 76,32 39,27
Kosovo 23,68 11,27
Belarus 22,11 8,93


Norway's hopes got a little boost with a good performance against Northern Ireland after a home defeat against Austria. Serbia had a lousy week, lost to Russia and could only manage a goalless draw at home against Turkey.


Then the final standings for the groups in the UEFA Nations League 2020:



group A-1             1st            2nd            3rd             4th
Italy 53,60 27,88 15,80 2,72
Netherlands 31,26 43,44 19,30 6,00
Poland 13,83 24,01 50,11 12,05
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1,31 4,67 14,79 79,23
group A-2             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Belgium 76,43 21,63 1,91 0,03
England 22,30 60,23 16,21 1,26
Denmark 1,20 16,28 63,48 19,04
Iceland 0,07 1,86 18,40 79,67
group A-3             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
France 55,96 38,79 5,00 0,25
Portugal 43,16 50,88 5,81 0,15
Croatia 0,71 7,91 58,45 32,93
Sweden 0,17 2,42 30,74 66,67
group A-4             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Spain 62,59 23,48 9,55 4,38
Germany 17,80 34,42 28,66 19,12
Ukraine 12,54 27,96 32,10 27,40
Switzerland 7,07 14,14 29,69 49,10
group B-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Romania 38,51 27,15 23,14 11,20
Austria 28,24 32,34 22,54 16,88
Norway 27,53 28,47 30,55 13,45
Northern Ireland 5,72 12,04 23,77 58,47
group B-2             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Czech Republic 41,94 32,83 16,39 8,84
Scotland 36,98 30,00 20,30 12,72
Slovakia 13,01 22,91 34,83 29,25
Israel 8,07 14,26 28,48 49,19
group B-3             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Russia 78,32 15,29 5,15 1,24
Serbia 6,90 32,10 30,21 30,79
Hungary 6,35 30,66 30,99 32,00
Turkey 8,43 21,95 33,65 35,97
group B-4             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Wales 79,44 15,03 4,74 0,79
Finland 12,25 48,82 24,80 14,13
Republic of Ireland 6,60 21,93 42,47 29,00
Bulgaria 1,71 14,22 27,99 56,08
group C-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Montenegro 85,79 11,33 2,71 0,17
Azerbaijan 8,16 32,02 44,55 15,27
Luxembourg 5,45 45,58 30,39 18,58
Cyprus 0,60 11,07 22,35 65,98
group C-2             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
North Macedonia 44,89 33,15 16,21 5,75
Georgia 38,66 36,38 20,87 4,09
Armenia 14,68 24,36 46,23 14,73
Estonia 1,77 6,11 16,69 75,43
group C-3             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Greece 67,52 27,49 4,23 0,76
Slovenia 26,69 47,19 22,87 3,25
Kosovo 5,20 22,92 57,17 14,71
Moldova 0,59 2,40 15,73 81,28
group C-4             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Albania 43,30 25,92 17,96 12,82
Belarus 32,36 35,26 19,99 12,39
Kazakhstan 13,30 22,04 36,20 28,46
Lithuania 11,04 16,78 25,85 46,33
group D-1             1st            2nd             3rd             4th
Faroe Islands 71,81 20,20 6,73 1,26
Latvia 18,31 37,69 29,35 14,65
Malta 5,94 23,15 33,71 37,20
Andorra 3,94 18,96 30,21 46,89
group D-2             1st            2nd             3rd
Liechtenstein 64,00 35,10 0,90
Gibraltar 35,88 59,68 4,44
San Marino 0,12 5,22 94,66


First blows dealt by Italy, France, Portugal and Spain in League A. Romania, Scotland, Russia and Wales improved their chances to become group first in league B.
In league C good performances by Montenegro and Greece, while Georgia and North Macedonia will probably not only battle for the EURO 2021 qualification spot from path D but also for top spot in group C-2.
It was a good week for the Faroe Islands in league D. And what to say about San Marino. Even in a not particularly strong group D-2 they don't stand any chance.


Then the probabilities to reach and win the Nations League finals. In square brackets you find the probabilities to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.


team qualify for the UNL finals
Belgium 76,43
Spain 62,59
France 55,96
Italy 53,60
Portugal 43,16
Netherlands 31,26
England 22,30
Germany 17,80
Poland 13,83
Ukraine 12,54
Switzerland 7,07
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1,31
Denmark 1,20
Croatia 0,71
Sweden 0,17
Iceland 0,07
team           qualify for the final
Belgium 45,12 [59,03]
Spain 39,74 [63,49]
France 28,50 [50,93]
Italy 24,01 [44,79]
Portugal 18,63 [43,16]
Netherlands 15,42 [49,33]
Germany 9,06 [50,90]
England 7,19 [32,24]
Ukraine 4,55 [36,28]
Poland 4,02 [29,07]
Switzerland 3,00 [42,43]
Denmark 0,29 [24,17]
Croatia 0,24 [33,80]
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,20 [15,27]
Sweden 0,02 [11,76]
Iceland 0,01 [14,29]
team                      win the title
Belgium 31,94 [70,79]
France 19,74 [69,26]
Spain 14,92 [37,54]
Portugal 11,93 [64,04]
Italy 7,09 [29,53]
Netherlands 5,48 [35,54]
England 3,49 [48,54]
Germany 2,48 [27,37]
Ukraine 1,18 [25,93]
Poland 0,88 [21,89]
Switzerland 0,68 [22,67]
Denmark 0,10 [34,48]
Croatia 0,09 [37,50]
Sweden 0,00 [0,00]
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0,00 [0,00]
Iceland 0,00 [0,00]


From the favourites the Dutch suffered the heaviest blow considering top spot in a league A group and subsequent qualifying for the UNL finals.



And finally the probabilities (in %) for each team to land in each pot for the WC qualifying draw. The teams are ordered by their average ranking position for UEFA teams in the November ranking (avg).

team       pot 1       pot 2       pot 3       pot 4       pot 5       pot 6         avg
Belgium 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 1,03
France 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 1,97
England 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 3,38
Portugal 100,00 0 0 0 0 0 4,05
Spain 99,94 0,06 0 0 0 0 5,08
Croatia 99,15 0,85 0 0 0 0 6,50
Italy 97,48 2,52 0 0 0 0 7,39
Netherlands 90,83 9,17 0 0 0 0 8,38
Germany 86,12 13,88 0 0 0 0 8,66
Switzerland 62,71 37,29 0 0 0 0 9,74
--------------------------
Denmark 60,26 39,74 0 0 0 0 10,02
Sweden 2,19 97,81 0 0 0 0 12,74
Poland 1,23 98,77 0 0 0 0 13,02
Wales 0,07 99,93 0 0 0 0 13,60
Ukraine 0,02 99,98 0 0 0 0 14,55
Austria 0 96,97 3,03 0 0 0 16,90
Russia 0 76,40 23,60 0 0 0 19,02
Turkey 0 65,45 34,55 0 0 0 19,66
Serbia 0 61,91 38,09 0 0 0 19,75
Romania 0 55,16 44,84 0 0 0 20,28
--------------------------
Slovakia 0 52,35 47,65 0 0 0 20,48
Republic of Ireland 0 33,69 66,31 0 0 0 21,59
Norway 0 24,46 75,54 0 0 0 22,92
Northern Ireland 0 16,39 83,61 0 0 0 23,29
Iceland 0 14,94 85,06 0 0 0 23,63
Czech Republic 0 0,91 99,01 0,08 0 0 25,32
Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 0,79 95,43 3,78 0 0 27,31
Scotland 0 0,49 94,59 4,92 0 0 27,40
Greece 0 0 88,07 11,93 0 0 29,07
Hungary 0 0,09 76,83 23,08 0 0 29,08
--------------------------
Finland 0 0 25,06 74,94 0 0 31,27
Montenegro 0 0 5,00 95,00 0 0 32,27
Bulgaria 0 0 13,54 86,46 0 0 32,57
Slovenia 0 0 0,14 99,86 0 0 34,02
North Macedonia 0 0 0,05 99,95 0 0 34,88
Albania 0 0 0 100,00 0 0 35,20
Georgia 0 0 0 99,70 0,30 0 37,67
Belarus 0 0 0 99,87 0,13 0 37,94
Israel 0 0 0 99,28 0,72 0 38,55
Luxembourg 0 0 0 56,24 43,76 0 40,48
--------------------------
Cyprus 0 0 0 36,60 63,40 0 40,86
Armenia 0 0 0 8,25 91,75 0 41,75
Estonia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 44,03
Faroe Islands 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 44,49
Azerbaijan 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 44,52
Kosovo 0 0 0 0,06 99,94 0 45,13
Kazakhstan 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 46,55
Lithuania 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 48,28
Latvia 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 49,10
Andorra 0 0 0 0 100,00 0 49,62
--------------------------
Moldova 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 51,10
Liechtenstein 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 52,33
Malta 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 52,59
Gibraltar 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 53,98
San Marino 0 0 0 0 0 100,00 55,00

Major battles are between:
- Switzerland and Denmark for pot 1 (though Germany and the Netherlands are still within reach for both)
- Turkey, Serbia, Romania and Slovakia for 3 spots in pot 2 (though Russia and also Republic of Ireland and maybe Norway could still play a part here)
- Luxembourg and Cyprus for pot 4.

About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

No comments:

Post a Comment