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Wednesday, January 6, 2021

CONCACAF qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

Forced by the COVID-19 pandemic CONCACAF has adjusted their initially proposed qualification format for the World Cup to the following process:

  • a group stage with 6 groups of 5 teams. Each team plays 2 home matches and 2 away matches against the other group opponents this March and June.
  • the 6 group winners play (still in June) in 3 two-legged play-offs for a place in the octogonal. The pairing of these group winners in the play-offs is fixed: winner A plays F, winner B plays E and winner C plays D.
  • a final group stage with 8 teams in a double round-robin format (octogonal) from September to March 2022. The top 5 from the July 2020 ranking (Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras) is automatically qualified for this stage.
  • the top 3 of the octogonal qualifies for Qatar; number 4 goes to the interconfederational play-offs in June 2022.

This crowded schedule can only be realised because the June window contains 4 MD's and the September, October, January and March windows will contain 3 MD's each.


The postponed Final Four of the CONCACAF Nations League 2020 between Mexico, USA, Costa Rica and Honduras is now scheduled for this June.


And the final qualification stages for the Gold Cup 2021 were also postponed last year. With Qatar suddenly invited as guest, the 12 teams will now play in three 4-team paths for the 3 remaining berths in the tournament. Each path consists of two one-off semi-finals and a final. These play-off paths are to be played in the first week of July, directly prior to the Gold Cup itself. The composition of the paths and the Gold Cup groups were drawn last September already. The match schedule for the Gold Cup is still to be revealed though.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the round 1 qualification groups. The teams are ordered by average position in the group. 


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

El Salvador

81,87

14,25

3,50

0,34

0,04

Grenada

10,25

43,83

40,24

5,21

0,47

Antigua and Barbuda

7,66

39,18

41,86

9,26

2,04

Montserrat

0,18

2,20

10,80

63,77

23,05

US Virgin Islands

0,04

0,54

3,60

21,42

74,40

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Canada

82,30

13,83

3,46

0,37

0,04

Suriname

10,61

47,89

34,85

5,71

0,94

Bermuda

6,95

36,12

50,87

5,37

0,69

Cayman Islands

0,10

0,98

5,70

53,88

39,34

Aruba

0,04

1,18

5,12

34,67

58,99

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Guatemala

51,75

32,65

12,14

3,41

0,05

Curacao

35,22

34,36

20,78

9,42

0,22

Cuba

9,98

21,48

34,94

33,27

0,33

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

3,05

11,51

32,05

52,66

0,73

British Virgin Islands

0,00

0,00

0,09

1,24

98,67

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Panama

89,20

9,21

1,35

0,23

0,01

Dominican Republic

6,35

54,23

26,92

11,66

0,84

Barbados

2,70

25,07

45,01

26,45

0,77

Dominica

1,75

11,46

26,37

58,11

2,31

Anguilla

0,00

0,03

0,35

3,55

96,07

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Haiti

89,61

8,51

1,49

0,37

0,02

Nicaragua

6,65

52,42

26,08

11,37

3,48

Belize

2,39

27,72

43,41

22,05

4,43

St. Lucia

1,31

10,08

24,34

50,36

13,91

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,04

1,27

4,68

15,85

78,16

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Trinidad and Tobago

59,03

23,69

11,23

4,70

1,35

Guyana

18,81

33,48

32,58

12,09

3,04

St. Kitts and Nevis

18,85

32,46

29,98

13,24

5,47

Puerto Rico

2,28

6,41

16,58

43,57

31,16

Bahamas

1,03

3,96

9,63

26,40

58,98



The group winners qualify for round 2:


Haiti

89,61

Panama

89,20

Canada

82,30

El Salvador

81,87

Trinidad and Tobago

59,03

Guatemala

51,75

Curacao

35,22

St. Kitts and Nevis

18,85

Guyana

18,81

Suriname

10,61

Grenada

10,25

Cuba

9,98

Antigua and Barbuda

7,66

Bermuda

6,95

Nicaragua

6,65

Dominican Republic

6,35

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

3,05

Barbados

2,70

Belize

2,39

Puerto Rico

2,28

Dominica

1,75

St. Lucia

1,31

Bahamas

1,03

Montserrat

0,18

Cayman Islands

0,10

US Virgin Islands

0,04

Aruba

0,04

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,04

British Virgin Islands

0,00

Anguilla

0,00



To win a play-off and qualify for the octogonal (in square brackets the probability, given qualification for round 2):

Panama

61,33

[68,76]

Haiti

52,74

[58,86]

El Salvador

51,08

[62,39]

Canada

41,34

[50,23]

Trinidad and Tobago

29,10

[49,30]

Guatemala

21,24

[41,04]

Curacao

12,07

[34,27]

Guyana

7,11

[37,80]

St. Kitts and Nevis

6,74

[35,76]

Grenada

3,29

[32,10]

Suriname

2,15

[20,26]

Antigua and Barbuda

2,12

[27,68]

Cuba

2,02

[20,24]

Dominican Republic

1,93

[30,39]

Nicaragua

1,58

[23,76]

Bermuda

1,39

[20,00]

Barbados

0,71

[26,30]

Belize

0,57

[23,85]

Puerto Rico

0,40

[17,54]

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,38

[12,46]

Dominica

0,32

[18,29]

St. Lucia

0,21

[16,03]

Bahamas

0,14

[13,59]

Montserrat

0,02

[11,11]

Cayman Islands

0,01

[10,00]

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,01

[25,00]



The octogonal and in column labeled WCq the probability to qualify for the World Cup. The group number 4 qualifies for the interconfederational play-off. Teams are ordered by their weighted average group position.

octogonal (stage 3)

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

WCq

Mexico

73,51

17,63

5,59

1,90

0,88

0,30

0,14

0,05

96,73

USA

15,29

34,88

20,38

12,87

8,06

4,83

2,74

0,95

70,55

Costa Rica

3,42

12,33

17,32

18,20

16,46

14,44

11,69

6,14

33,07

Honduras

2,81

11,96

16,33

17,00

16,55

15,12

13,08

7,15

31,10

Jamaica

1,51

7,13

13,53

16,36

18,29

17,58

15,86

9,74

22,17

Canada

1,25

5,49

7,54

7,68

6,63

5,89

4,53

2,33

14,28

Haiti

1,00

4,09

6,91

8,49

9,04

9,32

8,49

5,40

12,00

Panama

0,73

3,35

6,05

8,12

10,18

12,12

11,93

8,85

10,13

Guatemala

0,21

0,97

2,08

2,46

3,25

3,99

4,39

3,89

3,26

El Salvador

0,23

1,75

3,01

4,25

6,55

8,74

11,52

15,03

4,99

Curacao

0,02

0,24

0,58

1,14

1,31

2,22

3,38

3,18

0,84

Suriname

0,00

0,01

0,04

0,12

0,16

0,31

0,52

0,99

0,05

Bermuda

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,07

0,10

0,21

0,40

0,59

0,02

Trinidad and Tobago

0,01

0,15

0,58

1,16

1,90

3,29

6,42

15,59

0,74

Cuba

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,04

0,15

0,28

0,53

1,01

0,01

Belize

0,01

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,03

0,03

0,11

0,38

0,01

Nicaragua

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,06

0,10

0,37

1,04

0,01

Montserrat

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,01

0,00

Guyana

0,00

0,01

0,01

0,04

0,18

0,42

1,27

5,18

0,02

Grenada

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,04

0,07

0,19

0,52

2,46

0,01

Dominican Republic

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,04

0,12

0,36

1,41

0,00

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,04

0,08

0,37

1,16

5,08

0,01

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,10

0,27

0,00

Barbados

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,03

0,12

0,55

0,00

Antigua and Barbuda

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,01

0,09

0,27

1,74

0,00

St. Lucia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,02

0,18

0,00

Dominica

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,05

0,27

0,00

Puerto Rico

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,38

0,00

Bahamas

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,14

0,00

Cayman Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00



The CONCACAF Nations League 2020 Final Four:

to win semi final

Mexico

91,89

USA

87,13

Honduras

12,87

Costa Rica

8,11

to win final

Mexico

64,59

[70,29]

USA

32,14

[36,89]

Costa Rica

1,67

[20,59]

Honduras

1,60

[12,43]




The qualification for the final 3 berths in the Gold Cup 2021:

to win a path semi final

Trinidad and Tobago

98,76

Haiti

97,08

Guadeloupe

94,52

Guatemala

93,05

Bermuda

89,96

Cuba

77,22

French Guyana

22,78

Barbados

10,04

Guyana

6,95

Bahamas

5,48

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

2,92

Montserrat

1,24

to win a path final

Haiti

90,51

[93,23]

Guatemala

87,49

[94,02]

Trinidad and Tobago

80,78

[81,79]

Cuba

14,62

[18,93]

Bermuda

7,20

[8,00]

Guadeloupe

6,61

[6,99]

Guyana

5,82

[83,74]

French Guyana

4,43

[19,45]

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

1,99

[68,15]

Barbados

0,30

[2,99]

Montserrat

0,17

[13,71]

Bahamas

0,08

[1,46]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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