Qualification AFCON 2021 simulations (January 2021)

Last November match days 3 and 4 of the group stage in qualifying for the African Cup of Nations 2021 were played. The AFCON 2021 will be played in Cameroon, but is already postponed to January 2022. The last two matchdays will be played next March. The top 2 from each of the 12 groups qualifies for the 24-team AFCON 2021. Cameroon as host plays the qualifiers but is of course already certain of qualification. From their group F only one highest ranked other team qualifies, besides Cameroon.

Subsequently from May until October this year the second round of World Cup qualifying for CAF-teams will be played in 10 groups of 4 teams. The draw for this group stage was already a year ago in Cairo, but still no official schedule of matches is published by CAF/FIFA.

The third qualification round to decide the 5 African representatives in Qatar is staged for November this year. It consists of 5 two-legged play-offs between the 10 group winners.

In two weeks time the African Nations Championship 2021 is scheduled to be played in Cameroon (also postponed from April last year). Not to be confused with the AFCON, this championship is reserved for players in the African domestic competitions only. Africa's top dogs are severely hampered by this restriction in selecting their best players. So it is absolutely not a gimmie to predict the eventual winner. The matches do count for the FIFA ranking though but only as friendlies played outside an international match window, so with I-factor 5. This minor tournament is incorporated in these simulations.

Here are the probabilities (in %) for the group stage of AFCON21 qualifying -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The teams are ordered by average position in the group. In the column labeled Q the probability to qualify for the AFCON 2022 is also presented.

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Mali	86,36	13,64	0,00	0,00	100,00
Guinea	13,64	76,69	9,67	0,00	90,33
Namibia	0,00	9,67	70,50	19,83	9,67
Chad	0,00	0,00	19,83	80,17	0,00
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Burkina Faso	73,07	26,29	0,64	0,00	99,36
Uganda	26,70	58,83	14,43	0,04	85,53
Malawi	0,16	14,53	73,11	12,20	14,69
South Sudan	0,07	0,35	11,82	87,76	0,42
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Ghana	74,35	25,37	0,28	0,00	99,72
South Africa	25,43	61,56	13,01	0,00	86,99
Sudan	0,22	13,07	86,71	0,00	13,29
Sao Tomé e Príncipe	0,00	0,00	0,00	100,00	0,00
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Gabon	39,69	35,08	21,76	3,47	74,77
Congo DR	39,90	27,79	31,60	0,71	67,69
Gambia	20,41	35,81	42,28	1,50	56,22
Angola	0,00	1,32	4,36	94,32	1,32
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Morocco	99,61	0,39	0,00	0,00	100,00
Mauritania	0,39	45,11	37,54	16,96	45,50
Central African Republic	0,00	36,11	32,30	31,59	36,11
Burundi	0,00	18,39	30,16	51,45	18,39
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Cameroon	98,94	1,06	0,00	0,00	100,00
Cape Verde Islands	1,06	51,43	32,82	14,69	52,49
Mozambique	0,00	42,84	35,47	21,69	42,84
Rwanda	0,00	4,67	31,71	63,62	4,67
group G	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Egypt	88,05	10,75	1,20	0,00	98,80
Comoros	11,95	86,26	1,79	0,00	98,21
Kenya	0,00	2,99	58,07	38,94	2,99
Togo	0,00	0,00	38,94	61,06	0,00
group H	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Algeria	99,75	0,25	0,00	0,00	100,00
Zimbabwe	0,11	72,30	15,62	11,97	72,41
Botswana	0,14	17,82	48,60	33,44	17,96
Zambia	0,00	9,63	35,78	54,59	9,63
group I	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Senegal	99,98	0,02	0,00	0,00	100,00
Congo	0,02	82,43	17,55	0,00	82,45
Guinea-Bissau	0,00	17,55	72,74	9,71	17,55
Eswatini	0,00	0,00	9,71	90,29	0,00
group J	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Tunisia	97,26	2,74	0,00	0,00	100,00
Equatorial Guinea	2,74	60,47	31,58	5,21	63,21
Tanzania	0,00	30,61	28,82	40,57	30,61
Libya	0,00	6,18	39,60	54,22	6,18
group K	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Cote d'Ivoire	82,41	15,12	2,42	0,05	97,53
Madagascar	14,66	73,29	11,66	0,39	87,95
Ethiopia	2,84	11,05	83,65	2,46	13,89
Niger	0,09	0,54	2,27	97,10	0,63
group L	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	Q
Nigeria	83,68	15,91	0,41	0,00	99,59
Benin	16,15	72,12	11,73	0,00	88,27
Sierra Leone	0,17	11,72	59,66	28,45	11,89
Lesotho	0,00	0,25	28,20	71,55	0,25

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.