Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (17 April 2021)
Twitter

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

UEFA qualification World Cup 2022 simulations (January 2021)

The European teams will have a busy schedule this year. The qualification groups for the World Cup 2022 in 10 MD's will start in March and be played to a finish in November. There are 10 groups with the group winners qualifying directly for Qatar. The 10 group runners-up will compete with the two best UNL group winners, not qualified already, in 3 play-off paths of 4 teams for the final 3 UEFA berths. These single leg semi-final and final play-offs will be played in March 2022.

In October the UEFA Nations League 2021 Final Four will be played between the league A group winners Italy, Belgium, France and Spain.

And not to forget: this June the postponed EURO 2020 will be played, still with the same match schedule and in the same 12 venues, spread across Europe. Last November the last four participants (Hungary, Slovakia, Scotland and North Macedonia) came through the qualification finals.

 

Here are the probabilities (in %), generated over 10.000 simulations. All match-results in each simulation are based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


Previous simulation results for the EURO tournament can be found here. At the time there were quite some discussions about the validity of those results and in the meantime I have finally found the time to explore them thoroughly. It turns out there was indeed a bug in my simulation software in the not very common case that the 'away-playing' team in a match actually plays at home. Especially in this tournament the match schedule provided some of these cases and the bug made for instance Belgium look very bad in the results. My apologies to our southern neighbours. You will see below they are strong favourites now 😀


First the group stage of the EUROs. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Italy

66,88

23,41

7,15

2,56

Switzerland

16,25

33,68

29,86

20,21

Wales

12,41

25,98

32,57

29,04

Turkey

4,46

16,93

30,42

48,19

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Denmark

46,05

37,22

12,05

4,68

Belgium

45,05

35,69

16,05

3,21

Russia

7,04

19,80

41,28

31,88

Finland

1,86

7,29

30,62

60,23

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Netherlands

80,14

14,94

4,44

0,48

Ukraine

11,36

47,26

31,55

9,83

Austria

7,65

30,97

46,75

14,63

North Macedonia

0,85

6,83

17,26

75,06

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

England

68,75

22,07

7,35

1,83

Croatia

16,26

29,49

29,57

24,68

Scotland

7,33

26,85

29,95

35,87

Czech Republic

7,66

21,59

33,13

37,62

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Spain

83,66

12,83

2,78

0,73

Sweden

7,78

40,55

33,51

18,16

Poland

6,88

33,42

40,30

19,40

Slovakia

1,68

13,20

23,41

61,71

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Germany

38,22

29,65

21,78

10,35

France

30,84

30,22

25,30

13,64

Portugal

25,10

27,44

29,39

18,07

Hungary

5,84

12,69

23,53

57,94


Then the focus turns to the knock-out stage with the probabilities to qualify for each round. From the quarter finals onwards also the percentages are presented (in square brackets) to qualify for the round, given qualification for the previous knock-out round.


Round of 16

Netherlands

99,08

Spain

99,03

England

97,40

Italy

96,85

Belgium

94,81

Denmark

93,02

Germany

86,79

France

81,54

Ukraine

79,61

Portugal

72,68

Austria

71,03

Croatia

68,54

Sweden

68,11

Switzerland

68,02

Poland

66,97

Wales

60,24

Russia

56,62

Scotland

52,03

Czech Republic

46,41

Turkey

40,74

Hungary

33,04

Slovakia

28,45

Finland

21,87

North Macedonia

17,12


Quarter finals

Spain

83,97

[84,79]

Belgium

76,31

[80,49]

Italy

69,12

[71,37]

Netherlands

64,95

[65,55]

France

64,84

[79,52]

Denmark

53,89

[57,93]

Portugal

52,53

[72,28]

Germany

51,84

[59,73]

England

47,94

[49,22]

Sweden

30,23

[44,38]

Switzerland

29,24

[42,99]

Croatia

27,36

[39,92]

Poland

26,79

[40,00]

Wales

21,52

[35,72]

Ukraine

20,74

[26,05]

Austria

14,45

[20,34]

Czech Republic

12,79

[27,56]

Russia

11,64

[20,56]

Turkey

9,93

[24,37]

Hungary

9,84

[29,78]

Scotland

9,25

[17,78]

Slovakia

5,76

[20,25]

Finland

4,03

[18,43]

North Macedonia

1,04

[6,07]


Semi finals

Belgium

59,13

[77,49]

France

48,94

[75,48]

Spain

48,80

[58,12]

Netherlands

36,98

[56,94]

Portugal

35,78

[68,11]

Italy

33,98

[49,16]

Germany

32,25

[62,21]

Denmark

23,91

[44,37]

England

19,17

[39,99]

Switzerland

10,18

[34,82]

Croatia

7,52

[27,49]

Sweden

6,97

[23,06]

Ukraine

6,48

[31,24]

Wales

6,42

[29,83]

Poland

6,11

[22,81]

Austria

4,15

[28,72]

Russia

2,90

[24,91]

Turkey

2,59

[26,08]

Czech Republic

2,48

[19,39]

Hungary

2,44

[24,80]

Scotland

0,99

[10,70]

Slovakia

0,87

[15,10]

Finland

0,86

[21,34]

North Macedonia

0,10

[9,62]


Final

Belgium

38,66

[65,38]

France

32,42

[66,24]

Spain

29,85

[61,17]

Portugal

20,83

[58,22]

Italy

15,13

[44,53]

Netherlands

13,96

[37,75]

Germany

13,48

[41,80]

England

13,03

[67,97]

Denmark

8,28

[34,63]

Switzerland

2,79

[27,41]

Croatia

2,19

[29,12]

Ukraine

1,64

[25,31]

Sweden

1,61

[23,10]

Wales

1,61

[25,08]

Poland

1,34

[21,93]

Austria

0,80

[19,28]

Hungary

0,55

[22,54]

Czech Republic

0,51

[20,56]

Russia

0,48

[16,55]

Turkey

0,40

[15,44]

Scotland

0,16

[16,16]

Slovakia

0,14

[16,09]

Finland

0,13

[15,12]

North Macedonia

0,01

[10,00]


And the winner:

Belgium

25,36

[65,60]

France

20,01

[61,72]

Spain

14,22

[47,64]

Portugal

10,61

[50,94]

England

7,96

[61,09]

Italy

6,37

[42,10]

Netherlands

5,47

[39,18]

Germany

4,60

[34,12]

Denmark

2,36

[28,50]

Switzerland

0,68

[24,37]

Croatia

0,61

[27,85]

Sweden

0,37

[22,98]

Wales

0,35

[21,74]

Ukraine

0,33

[20,12]

Poland

0,25

[18,66]

Austria

0,12

[15,00]

Hungary

0,10

[18,18]

Czech Republic

0,09

[17,65]

Turkey

0,06

[15,00]

Scotland

0,04

[25,00]

Russia

0,03

[6,25]

Slovakia

0,01

[7,14]

Finland

0,00

[0,00]

North Macedonia

0,00

[0,00]



Then a closer look to most probable match-ups in the different knock-out stages. A total of 270 different match-ups are generated in this simulation. Here are per match the 10 most probable match-ups presented. Also per knock-out stage a total overview of the 25 most probable match-ups.


First the chances of the 4 group winners of groups B, C, E and F to meet a group third from the other groups in the round of 16 (the row sums to 100%):

A3

B3

C3

D3

E3

F3

B1

19,31

0

0

12,44

31,12

37,13

C1

0

0

0

31,64

31,44

36,92

E1

12,44

31,65

35,61

20,30

0

0

F1

34,10

34,67

31,23

0

0

0


And presented the other way round (the row sums to 100%):

B1

C1

E1

F1

A3

29,32

0

18,89

51,78

B3

0

0

47,72

52,28

C3

0

0

53,28

46,72

D3

19,32

49,15

31,53

0

E3

49,74

50,26

0

0

F3

50,14

49,86

0

0


Round of 16

B1 - nr 3 (Bilbao - ESP)

A1 - C2 (London - ENG)

Belgium - Poland

6,26

Italy - Ukraine

31,39

Denmark - Poland

6,18

Austria - Italy

20,62

Denmark - Sweden

4,74

Italy - Netherlands

10,27

Denmark - Portugal

4,72

Switzerland - Ukraine

7,81

Denmark - France

4,54

Ukraine - Wales

6,02

Belgium - Germany

4,51

Austria - Switzerland

4,91

Belgium - Sweden

4,51

Italy - North Macedonia

4,60

Belgium - France

4,48

Austria - Wales

3,93

Belgium - Portugal

4,39

Netherlands - Switzerland

2,36

Denmark - Germany

4,28

Turkey - Ukraine

2,04

F1 - nr 3 (Bucharest - ROM)

D2 - E2 (Copenhagen - DEN)

Austria - Germany

6,11

Croatia - Sweden

11,85

Germany - Russia

5,78

Scotland - Sweden

11,06

France - Russia

4,76

Croatia - Poland

9,86

Austria - France

4,57

England - Sweden

9,01

Germany - Wales

4,46

Poland - Scotland

8,82

Germany - Ukraine

3,89

Czech Republic - Sweden

8,63

Portugal - Russia

3,84

Czech Republic - Poland

7,49

Austria - Portugal

3,82

England - Poland

7,25

France - Wales

3,71

Croatia - Slovakia

3,98

Germany - Switzerland

3,63

Croatia - Spain

3,80

E1 - nr 3 (Glasgow - SCO)

D1 - F2 (Dublin - IRL)

Austria - Spain

14,17

England - France

20,88

Russia - Spain

12,07

England - Germany

20,39

Spain - Ukraine

9,58

England - Portugal

18,68

Croatia - Spain

5,89

England - Hungary

8,80

Belgium - Spain

5,71

Croatia - France

4,85

Finland - Spain

4,93

Croatia - Germany

4,82

Scotland - Spain

4,68

Croatia - Portugal

4,54

North Macedonia - Spain

4,49

Czech Republic - Germany

2,40

Czech Republic - Spain

4,23

France - Scotland

2,28

Denmark - Spain

3,85

Portugal - Scotland

2,22

C1 - nr 3 (Budapest - HUN)

A2 - B2 (Amsterdam - NED)

Netherlands - Poland

10,81

Denmark - Switzerland

12,42

France - Netherlands

8,69

Belgium - Switzerland

11,99

Croatia - Netherlands

8,49

Denmark - Wales

9,82

Netherlands - Portugal

8,43

Belgium - Wales

9,14

Netherlands - Sweden

7,69

Denmark - Italy

8,77

Germany - Netherlands

7,57

Belgium - Italy

8,43

Czech Republic - Netherlands

6,82

Russia - Switzerland

6,75

Netherlands - Scotland

6,76

Denmark - Turkey

6,21

Hungary - Netherlands

5,77

Belgium - Turkey

6,13

Netherlands - Slovakia

5,54

Russia - Wales

5,12

total Round of 16

Italy - Ukraine

31,39

England - France

20,88

Austria - Italy

20,62

England - Germany

20,39

England - Portugal

18,68

Denmark - Switzerland

14,48

Austria - Spain

14,21

Belgium - Switzerland

14,19

Denmark - Wales

12,61

Croatia - Sweden

12,52

Russia - Spain

12,16

Belgium - Wales

12,07

Scotland - Sweden

11,55

Netherlands - Poland

10,99

Croatia - Poland

10,34

Italy - Netherlands

10,27

Spain - Ukraine

9,78

Croatia - Spain

9,69

Denmark - Italy

9,68

Belgium - Italy

9,34

France - Netherlands

9,26

Poland - Scotland

9,25

England - Sweden

9,20

Czech Republic - Sweden

9,10

Denmark - Turkey

9,01

Quarter finals

B1-nr 3 / A1-C2 (Munich - GER)

F1-nr 3 / D2-E2 (St. Petersburg - RUS)

Belgium - Italy

21,02

Germany - Sweden

6,46

Denmark - Italy

16,54

France - Sweden

5,87

Belgium - Switzerland

4,57

Germany - Poland

5,42

Belgium - Ukraine

4,35

Croatia - Germany

5,20

Denmark - Ukraine

3,58

France - Poland

4,97

Denmark - Switzerland

3,53

England - Germany

4,96

Belgium - Wales

3,48

Croatia - France

4,62

France - Italy

3,28

Portugal - Sweden

4,62

Italy - Portugal

2,99

England - France

4,27

Austria - Belgium

2,59

Croatia - Portugal

3,93

E1-nr 3 / D1-F2 (Rome - ITA)

C1-nr 3 / A2-B2 (Baku - AZB)

England - Spain

21,77

Belgium - Netherlands

17,07

France - Spain

17,18

Denmark - Netherlands

12,28

Portugal - Spain

14,28

Netherlands - Switzerland

8,18

Germany - Spain

10,80

Italy - Netherlands

7,63

Croatia - Spain

3,78

Netherlands - Wales

5,46

Hungary - Spain

2,26

Netherlands - Russia

3,18

England - Sweden

1,69

Netherlands - Turkey

2,82

Czech Republic - Spain

1,26

Belgium - France

2,34

England - Poland

1,25

Belgium - Ukraine

2,02

France - Sweden

1,22

Denmark - France

1,70

total Quarter final

England - Spain

21,77

Belgium - Italy

21,02

France - Spain

20,30

Belgium - Netherlands

19,29

Portugal - Spain

16,78

Denmark - Italy

16,54

Denmark - Netherlands

14,24

Germany - Spain

13,70

Netherlands - Switzerland

8,25

Italy - Netherlands

7,71

Germany - Sweden

7,25

France - Sweden

7,09

Belgium - Ukraine

6,37

Germany - Poland

6,11

France - Poland

6,04

Netherlands - Wales

5,57

Portugal - Sweden

5,53

Croatia - Germany

5,49

England - Germany

5,12

Denmark - Ukraine

4,88

Croatia - France

4,87

Poland - Portugal

4,59

Belgium - Switzerland

4,57

England - France

4,47

Croatia - Portugal

4,23

total Semi final (London - ENG)

Netherlands - Spain

14,49

Belgium - France

12,21

Belgium - Spain

11,37

Belgium - Germany

8,94

Belgium - Portugal

8,55

France - Italy

7,62

France - Netherlands

6,54

Germany - Italy

6,36

Italy - Portugal

5,46

Denmark - France

4,91

England - Netherlands

4,75

Belgium - England

4,56

Italy - Spain

4,14

Netherlands - Portugal

4,12

Denmark - Spain

4,04

Denmark - Portugal

3,76

France - Portugal

3,59

Denmark - Germany

3,56

France - Spain

2,77

France - Germany

2,64

Germany - Netherlands

2,55

Spain - Switzerland

2,39

England - Italy

2,11

Belgium - Croatia

2,04

Germany - Portugal

2,04

total Final (London - ENG)

Belgium - Spain

8,01

Belgium - France

7,65

France - Spain

5,82

France - Portugal

4,63

Belgium - Portugal

4,59

Belgium - Netherlands

4,17

Portugal - Spain

3,91

Italy - Spain

3,48

Belgium - England

3,02

Belgium - Italy

3,02

Belgium - Germany

2,77

France - Germany

2,76

France - Netherlands

2,74

England - France

2,67

Germany - Spain

2,48

France - Italy

2,37

Belgium - Denmark

2,34

Germany - Portugal

1,73

Denmark - Spain

1,55

Italy - Netherlands

1,55

England - Portugal

1,54

England - Italy

1,48

Netherlands - Portugal

1,46

England - Spain

1,33

Denmark - France

1,28

total Knock-out matches

Belgium - Italy

34,94

Italy - Ukraine

32,89

Belgium - France

29,91

England - France

29,16

France - Spain

28,89

England - Spain

27,88

Denmark - Italy

26,93

England - Germany

26,68

Belgium - Spain

26,21

Belgium - Netherlands

24,54

England - Portugal

24,51

Portugal - Spain

22,61

Belgium - Portugal

21,77

Austria - Italy

21,55

Belgium - Germany

20,53

Belgium - Switzerland

20,01

Italy - Netherlands

19,68

France - Netherlands

19,07

Denmark - Switzerland

18,24

Netherlands - Spain

17,83

Germany - Spain

17,08

Belgium - Wales

16,42

France - Italy

15,36

Austria - Spain

15,23

Denmark - Netherlands

15,18


Then the UEFA Nations League Final Four, played in October in Italy:

to win a semi-final

Italy

63,53

Belgium

55,24

France

44,76

Spain

36,47

to win the UNL

Italy

32,67

Belgium

29,50

France

22,75

Spain

15,08


Then qualification for the World Cup. First the group stage. The teams are ordered by their average group position:

group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Portugal

83,91

14,00

2,06

0,03

0,00

Serbia

13,39

59,70

23,67

2,84

0,40

Republic of Ireland

2,68

24,32

58,51

11,62

2,87

Azerbaijan

0,02

1,19

8,55

44,52

45,72

Luxembourg

0,00

0,79

7,21

40,99

51,01

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Spain

84,95

13,77

1,15

0,09

0,04

Sweden

13,55

62,51

17,64

5,20

1,10

Greece

1,27

15,77

44,96

24,76

13,24

Georgia

0,12

4,07

19,19

36,66

39,96

Kosovo

0,11

3,88

17,06

33,29

45,66

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Italy

71,50

26,13

2,19

0,18

0,00

Switzerland

27,20

60,54

10,18

1,83

0,25

Northern Ireland

0,92

8,81

50,86

28,67

10,74

Bulgaria

0,33

3,95

28,59

44,44

22,69

Lithuania

0,05

0,57

8,18

24,88

66,32

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

France

85,06

12,22

2,40

0,32

0,00

Ukraine

11,40

54,94

24,17

9,11

0,38

Finland

2,69

21,85

42,79

29,33

3,34

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,85

10,81

29,16

51,61

7,57

Kazakhstan

0,00

0,18

1,48

9,63

88,71

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Belgium

86,38

11,60

1,90

0,11

0,01

Wales

8,97

54,07

30,98

5,24

0,74

Czech Republic

4,55

31,37

51,22

11,10

1,76

Belarus

0,10

2,54

12,12

56,68

28,56

Estonia

0,00

0,42

3,78

26,87

68,93

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Denmark

68,86

22,52

7,13

1,41

0,08

0,00

Austria

21,78

44,85

23,45

9,37

0,52

0,03

Scotland

6,65

21,21

39,08

29,69

3,01

0,36

Israel

2,70

11,33

28,98

48,89

6,82

1,28

Faroe Islands

0,01

0,05

0,84

6,38

50,55

42,17

Moldova

0,00

0,04

0,52

4,26

39,02

56,16

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Netherlands

77,07

17,11

5,31

0,51

0,00

0,00

Norway

11,63

39,95

37,02

10,95

0,43

0,02

Turkey

10,79

37,76

39,73

11,34

0,38

0,00

Montenegro

0,51

5,12

17,16

67,42

8,92

0,87

Latvia

0,00

0,05

0,75

8,73

70,10

20,37

Gibraltar

0,00

0,01

0,03

1,05

20,17

78,74

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Croatia

57,22

26,09

12,10

4,25

0,34

0,00

Russia

24,75

35,00

24,58

14,14

1,45

0,08

Slovakia

11,00

22,22

31,60

30,39

4,40

0,39

Slovenia

6,96

16,25

29,22

39,82

6,95

0,80

Cyprus

0,07

0,42

2,20

9,18

59,63

28,50

Malta

0,00

0,02

0,30

2,22

27,23

70,23

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

England

65,95

23,34

9,33

1,38

0,00

0,00

Poland

20,73

41,10

29,45

8,67

0,05

0,00

Hungary

12,18

30,01

41,97

15,80

0,04

0,00

Albania

1,14

5,55

19,25

73,13

0,92

0,01

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,97

80,77

18,26

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,05

18,22

81,73

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Germany

85,18

11,43

2,60

0,62

0,17

0,00

Romania

7,26

36,45

26,88

17,87

11,34

0,20

Iceland

4,63

27,54

28,88

23,53

14,80

0,62

North Macedonia

1,94

14,98

23,45

30,31

28,10

1,22

Armenia

0,99

9,60

18,13

27,25

41,45

2,58

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,06

0,42

4,14

95,38



Then the play-offs. Teams can qualify for the play-offs as group runner-up (column 'nr2') or as one of the two best UNL group winners not already qualified (column 'via UNL'). In column 'PO' you see the total probability to qualify for the play-offs. Teams are ordered by this column. 
The 6 best runners-up are seeded in the draw for the 6 semi-finals in the 3 paths. In columns 'seeded' and 'unseeded' you will find the respective probabilities and finally in column '%seeded' the chance to be seeded.

team

PO

nr2

via UNL

seeded

unseeded

%seeded

Czech Republic

93,87

31,37

62,50

5,99

87,88

6,38

Wales

91,01

54,07

36,94

13,20

77,81

14,50

Austria

77,85

44,85

33,00

43,02

34,83

55,26

Hungary

66,02

30,01

36,01

29,76

36,26

45,08

Sweden

62,51

62,51

0

15,41

47,10

24,65

Switzerland

60,54

60,54

0

22,65

37,89

37,41

Serbia

59,70

59,70

0

17,52

42,18

29,35

Ukraine

54,94

54,94

0

11,92

43,02

21,70

Poland

41,10

41,10

0

40,80

0,30

99,27

Norway

39,95

39,95

0

38,55

1,40

96,50

Turkey

37,76

37,76

0

36,41

1,35

96,42

Slovenia

36,78

16,25

20,53

14,86

21,92

40,40

Romania

36,45

36,45

0

30,78

5,67

84,44

Russia

35,00

35,00

0

32,85

2,15

93,86

Iceland

27,54

27,54

0

22,39

5,15

81,30

Italy

26,87

26,13

0,74

12,47

14,40

46,41

Croatia

26,09

26,09

0

24,97

1,12

95,71

Republic of Ireland

24,32

24,32

0

4,32

20,00

17,76

England

23,34

23,34

0

23,30

0,04

99,83

Denmark

22,52

22,52

0

22,19

0,33

98,53

Slovakia

22,22

22,22

0

20,59

1,63

92,66

Finland

21,85

21,85

0

2,54

19,31

11,62

Scotland

21,21

21,21

0

19,83

1,38

93,49

Netherlands

17,11

17,11

0

17,00

0,11

99,36

Greece

15,77

15,77

0

1,54

14,23

9,77

Spain

15,05

13,77

1,28

6,06

8,99

40,27

North Macedonia

14,98

14,98

0

11,52

3,46

76,90

Portugal

14,00

14,00

0

6,62

7,38

47,29

Belgium

13,62

11,60

2,02

5,09

8,53

37,37

France

13,03

12,22

0,81

4,36

8,67

33,46

Germany

11,43

11,43

0

11,09

0,34

97,03

Israel

11,33

11,33

0

10,22

1,11

90,20

Montenegro

10,91

5,12

5,79

4,52

6,39

41,43

Bosnia-Herzegovina

10,81

10,81

0

0,64

10,17

5,92

Armenia

9,61

9,60

0,01

7,15

2,46

74,40

Northern Ireland

8,81

8,81

0

1,20

7,61

13,62

Albania

5,92

5,55

0,37

5,37

0,55

90,71

Georgia

4,07

4,07

0

0,36

3,71

8,85

Bulgaria

3,95

3,95

0

0,24

3,71

6,08

Kosovo

3,88

3,88

0

0,15

3,73

3,87

Belarus

2,54

2,54

0

0,11

2,43

4,33

Azerbaijan

1,19

1,19

0

0,01

1,18

0,84

Luxembourg

0,79

0,79

0

0,03

0,76

3,80

Lithuania

0,57

0,57

0

0,00

0,57

0,00

Estonia

0,42

0,42

0

0,02

0,40

4,76

Cyprus

0,42

0,42

0

0,28

0,14

66,67

Kazakhstan

0,18

0,18

0

0,01

0,17

5,56

Faroe Islands

0,05

0,05

0

0,04

0,01

80,00

Latvia

0,05

0,05

0

0,02

0,03

40,00

Moldova

0,04

0,04

0

0,02

0,02

50,00

Malta

0,02

0,02

0

0,00

0,02

0,00

Gibraltar

0,01

0,01

0

0,01

0,00

100,00

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0

0,00

0,00

0,00



The probability to win a play-off semi-final. In square brackets the chance to win, given qualification for the play-offs.

Austria

38,84

[49,89]

Wales

35,39

[38,89]

Switzerland

32,55

[53,77]

Poland

31,55

[76,76]

Norway

28,76

[71,99]

Hungary

28,66

[43,41]

Sweden

27,53

[44,04]

Turkey

26,69

[70,68]

Czech Republic

25,48

[27,14]

Serbia

24,96

[41,81]

Ukraine

24,76

[45,07]

Russia

22,83

[65,23]

England

20,31

[87,02]

Croatia

19,47

[74,63]

Romania

19,12

[52,46]

Italy

18,92

[70,41]

Denmark

18,74

[83,21]

Netherlands

14,74

[86,15]

Iceland

12,90

[46,84]

Scotland

12,75

[60,11]

Slovakia

12,55

[56,48]

Belgium

10,59

[77,75]

Slovenia

10,55

[28,68]

Spain

10,53

[69,97]

Portugal

10,07

[71,93]

France

9,74

[74,75]

Germany

9,19

[80,40]

Finland

6,54

[29,93]

North Macedonia

6,25

[41,72]

Republic of Ireland

6,16

[25,33]

Israel

5,42

[47,84]

Armenia

3,45

[35,90]

Greece

3,17

[20,10]

Albania

2,46

[41,55]

Montenegro

2,37

[21,72]

Bosnia-Herzegovina

2,13

[19,70]

Northern Ireland

1,62

[18,39]

Georgia

0,55

[13,51]

Bulgaria

0,54

[13,67]

Kosovo

0,53

[13,66]

Belarus

0,29

[11,42]

Cyprus

0,11

[26,19]

Azerbaijan

0,10

[8,40]

Luxembourg

0,07

[8,86]

Lithuania

0,02

[3,51]

Kazakhstan

0,02

[11,11]

Estonia

0,02

[4,76]

Latvia

0,01

[20,00]


</