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Monday, May 31, 2021

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 (May 2021)

The situation in the second round of AFC qualifying has changed somewhat with the withdrawal after 6 match days of North Korea and the decision of AFC/FIFA to annul their matches and disregard the matches against the group number 5 in all other groups when determining the group runners-up table. Remember that -besides the 8 group winners- the top 4 of the group runners-up qualify for the third and final qualification round (or top 5 if Qatar is a group winner or belongs to the top 4 group runners-up).


Furthermore 4 matches have already been played between the last simulations in January this year and today, in which Qatar and Saudi Arabia won and Japan already secured passage to the third round as group winner. These simulations were made today (June 5th), right before the Saudi Arabia - Yemen match.


In the upcoming June window the remaining matches for all groups are played at a venue of one host. The extra home advantage could play a decisive role

  • in group B with the fight for second place between host Kuwait and Jordan behind 'almost sure' group winner Australia
  • in group C where Iran struggles with Iraq to become group winner and has to play their 'home' matches in Bahrain
  • in group D where Saudi Arabia suddnely has home advantage in their fight with Uzbekistan
  • in group G where the United Arab Emirates has gained home advantage in their fight with Vietnam.

In the other groups the final outcome seems already kind of settled. But I forget that this World Cup qualification also serves as qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2023, so also ending on places 3, 4 and 5 in the group is relevant for that process. In that light I find it strange and a bit unfair that the hosts have been chosen in a obscure procedure and that 5 of the 8 hosts are located in the Middle East. Especially the host for group G should have been located in South East Asia, not in the Emirates.


You will see below that this has some effect on the qualification chances of certain teams in comparison with the situation this January after MD6.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Syria

99,40

0,60

0,00

0,00

0,00

China PR

0,60

96,87

2,52

0,01

0,00

Philippines

0,00

2,53

95,11

2,36

0,00

Maldives

0,00

0,00

2,37

97,63

0,00

Guam

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Australia

99,88

0,11

0,01

0,00

0,00

Kuwait

0,01

58,10

41,89

0,00

0,00

Jordan

0,11

41,79

58,10

0,00

0,00

Nepal

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Chinese Taipei

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Iraq

57,12

38,92

3,96

0,00

0,00

Iran

26,16

32,26

41,58

0,00

0,00

Bahrain

16,72

28,82

54,46

0,00

0,00

Hong Kong

0,00

0,00

0,00

99,96

0,04

Cambodia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,04

99,96

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Saudi Arabia

80,19

19,79

0,02

0,00

0,00

Uzbekistan

19,80

79,71

0,24

0,25

0,00

Palestine

0,00

0,12

78,79

17,07

4,02

Singapore

0,01

0,19

4,11

72,13

23,56

Yemen

0,00

0,19

16,84

10,55

72,42

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Qatar

88,32

11,68

0,00

0,00

0,00

Oman

11,68

88,32

0,00

0,00

0,00

Afghanistan

0,00

0,00

38,25

60,87

0,88

India

0,00

0,00

61,71

34,26

4,03

Bangladesh

0,00

0,00

0,04

4,87

95,09

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Japan

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Kyrgyzstan

0,00

70,88

28,24

0,88

0,00

Tajikistan

0,00

26,18

71,11

2,71

0,00

Myanmar

0,00

2,94

0,65

96,37

0,04

Mongolia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,04

99,96

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

Vietnam

49,86

42,14

7,07

0,93

0,00

United Arab Emirates

48,33

41,25

9,52

0,90

0,00

Thailand

1,49

11,97

60,95

25,59

0,00

Malaysia

0,32

4,64

22,46

72,58

0,00

Indonesia

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Korea Republic

97,76

2,24

0,00

0,00

Lebanon

2,24

97,76

0,00

0,00

Turkmenistan

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Sri Lanka

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00


The probabilities to qualify for the third round in WCq (numbers 1 from each group plus the best 4 group runners-up; when Qatar is among those teams the fifth best runner-up also qualifies as their replacement). In the following tables the second column contains the difference in procentpoints compared to the last January simulations:

Japan

100,00

0,11

Syria

100,00

0,07

Korea Republic

100,00

9,70

Australia

99,99

0,91

Saudi Arabia

97,77

31,46

Iraq

93,43

6,49

Oman

92,60

-1,54

Lebanon

90,45

66,46

China PR

89,44

16,29

Vietnam

74,68

1,36

United Arab Emirates

64,43

24,33

Iran

44,31

-14,97

Uzbekistan

40,88

-27,99

Bahrain

39,16

0,23

Jordan

30,95

-10,12

Kuwait

30,38

-18,73

Thailand

8,80

-18,36

Philippines

1,11

-6,64

Kyrgyzstan

0,85

-8,18

Malaysia

0,49

-11,50

Tajikistan

0,16

-4,65

Myanmar

0,07

-0,09

Singapore

0,03

-1,51

Yemen

0,02

-0,47

Turkmenistan

0,00

-11,19

Palestine

0,00

-0,31

India

0,00

0,00

Afghanistan

0,00

0,00

Maldives

0,00

-0,11

Guam

0,00

0,00

Nepal

0,00

0,00

Chinese Taipei

0,00

0,00

Hong Kong

0,00

-0,07

Cambodia

0,00

0,00

Qatar

0,00

0,00

Bangladesh

0,00

0,00

Mongolia

0,00

0,00

Indonesia

0,00

0,00

Sri Lanka

0,00

0,00



The probability to qualify for round three as one of the best four (or five) group runners-up per group:

group E

87,86

-7,42

group A

83,21

-7,10

group H

79,63

73,61

group C

56,02

-32,15

group B

36,07

-31,33

group G

31,18

3,76

group D

25,57

1,15

group F

0,46

-0,52


The seeding pots for the draw of the third qualification round. The teams are ordered by weighted average ranking position after round two is finished:


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

pot 5

pot 6

Japan

99,98

0,02

0

0

0

0

Korea Republic

51,43

48,57

0

0

0

0

Iran

44,31

0

0

0

0

0

Australia

4,28

95,71

0

0

0

0

Saudi Arabia

0

35,95

59,52

2,25

0

0

Iraq

0

17,31

57,40

18,72

0,00

0

China PR

0

0,39

38,43

45,59

5,03

0

Syria

0

0

8,47

62,84

28,38

0,30

Oman

0

0

0,61

33,02

57,74

1,23

United Arab Emirates

0

2,04

35,41

26,27

0,71

0

Lebanon

0

0

0

0,17

21,97

68,31

Vietnam

0

0

0

0,46

29,17

45,05

Uzbekistan

0

0

0,16

10,45

27,85

2,42

Bahrain

0

0

0

0,15

22,79

16,22

Jordan

0

0

0

0,07

5,73

25,15

Kuwait

0

0

0

0

0

30,38

Thailand

0

0

0

0

0,03

8,77

Philippines

0

0

0

0

0,00

1,11

Kyrgyzstan

0

0

0

0,01

0,55

0,29

Malaysia

0

0

0

0

0

0,49

Tajikistan

0

0

0

0

0,00

0,16

Myanmar

0

0

0

0

0

0

Singapore

0

0

0

0

0

0,03

Yemen

0

0

0

0

0

0

Turkmenistan

0

0

0

0

0

0,00

Palestine

0

0

0

0

0

0

Afghanistan

0

0

0

0

0

0

Bangladesh

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cambodia

0

0

0

0

0

0

Chinese Taipei

0

0

0

0

0

0

Guam

0

0

0

0

0

0

Hong Kong

0

0

0

0

0

0

India

0

0

0

0

0

0

Indonesia

0

0

0

0

0

0

Maldives

0

0

0

0

0

0

Mongolia

0

0

0

0

0

0

Nepal

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sri Lanka

0

0

0

0

0

0

Qatar

0

0

0

0

0

0


The probabilities to qualify for the AFC Cup of Nations 2023 in China - 1 to 12:


Japan

100,00

0,13

Syria

100,00

0,31

Qatar

100,00

0,57

Australia

99,98

0,97

Korea Republic

99,98

12,17

Saudi Arabia

96,71

36,67

Iraq

88,11

5,58

Oman

87,86

-2,20

China PR

82,69

17,30

Lebanon

79,65

64,14

Vietnam

67,71

0,48

United Arab Emirates

56,24

21,38

Iran

34,45

-20,77

Bahrain

33,46

-0,11

Uzbekistan

28,83

-33,40

Jordan

22,08

-15,22

Kuwait

14,01

-28,97

Thailand

6,90

-14,01

Philippines

0,52

-5,14

Kyrgyzstan

0,45

-4,81

Malaysia

0,33

-9,06

Yemen

0,02

-0,36

Tajikistan

0,01

-3,17

Singapore

0,01

-1,33

Turkmenistan

0,00

-7,44

Palestine

0,00

-0,26

Myanmar

0,00

-0,07

India

0,00

0,00

Afghanistan

0,00

0,00

Maldives

0,00

-0,04

Guam

0,00

0,00

Nepal

0,00

0,00

Chinese Taipei

0,00

0,00

Hong Kong

0,00

-0,02

Cambodia

0,00

0,00

Bangladesh

0,00

0,00

Mongolia

0,00

0,00

Indonesia

0,00

0,00

Sri Lanka

0,00

0,00


To qualify for the Asian third qualification round - 13 to 28 (or 29 if China is in this group):

Turkmenistan

100,00

7,72

Tajikistan

99,99

5,85

Malaysia

99,60

9,24

Kyrgyzstan

99,55

6,09

Philippines

99,48

7,46

Myanmar

98,83

47,99

Palestine

95,98

26,20

Thailand

93,10

14,37

India

90,41

34,45

Kuwait

85,99

28,97

Jordan

77,92

15,22

Singapore

75,77

7,11

Uzbekistan

71,17

33,52

Afghanistan

68,24

9,58

Bahrain

66,54

0,14

Iran

65,55

21,09

United Arab Emirates

43,76

-20,11

Hong Kong

36,99

4,41

Vietnam

32,29

-0,48

Yemen

27,30

-9,60

Lebanon

20,35

-64,07

Maldives

19,31

-31,36

China PR

17,31

-17,16

Oman

12,14

2,20

Iraq

11,89

-5,58

Saudi Arabia

3,29

-36,17

Nepal

2,02

-6,49

Bangladesh

1,84

-3,70

Sri Lanka

0,58

0,58

Cambodia

0,04

-0,01

Mongolia

0,04

-3,21

Korea Republic

0,02

-12,17

Australia

0,02

-0,97

Qatar

0,00

-0,57

Indonesia

0,00

-0,23

Chinese Taipei

0,00

-0,34

Guam

0,00

-0,19

Syria

0,00

-0,31

Japan

0,00

-0,13



To qualify for the play-offs for the Asian third qualification round - 29 (or 30) to 40:


Guam

100,00

0,19

Chinese Taipei

100,00

0,34

Indonesia

100,00

0,23

Mongolia

99,96

3,21

Cambodia

99,96

0,01

Sri Lanka

99,42

-0,58

Bangladesh

98,16

3,70

Nepal

97,98

6,49

Maldives

80,69

31,40

Yemen

72,68

9,96

Hong Kong

63,01

-4,39

Afghanistan

31,76

-9,58

Singapore

24,22

-5,78

India

9,59

-34,45

Palestine

4,02

-25,94

Myanmar

1,17

-47,92

Malaysia

0,07

-0,18

Philippines

0,00

-2,32

United Arab Emirates

0,00

-1,27

Thailand

0,00

-0,36

Kyrgyzstan

0,00

-1,28

Tajikistan

0,00

-2,68

Saudi Arabia

0,00

-0,50

Turkmenistan

0,00

-0,28

Uzbekistan

0,00

-0,12

Lebanon

0,00

-0,07

Bahrain

0,00

-0,03

Jordan

0,00

0,00

Kuwait

0,00

0,00

Vietnam

0,00

0,00

Iran

0,00

-0,32

Iraq

0,00

0,00

China PR

0,00

-0,14

Oman

0,00

0,00

Korea Republic

0,00

0,00

Qatar

0,00

0,00

Syria

0,00

0,00

Australia

0,00

0,00

Japan

0,00

0,00



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

22 comments:

  1. Does this take into account that results against 5th placed teams do not count for the 2nd placed table. It looks like they still count here, since Lebanon and Turkmenistan have so low chances of qualification?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Ed for your great efforts. I thing there something wrong in calculation regarding Group H specially the probability of the runner up if this group.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks Ed for your great efforts. I think there is something wrong in calculation regarding Group H specially the probability of the runner up of this group.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Lebanon only needs two wins out of the three matches
    Sri Lanka 99% chance
    Turkmenistan 64% winning chance
    How could it be that lebanon such a low chance to qualifying?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think you are a bit optimistic about Lebanon's chances for a win against Turkmenistan. Given the elo win probability for Turkmenistan of about 33%, it means that Turkmenistan has a 28% to win. Lebanon's chance to win this match will be only 46%. There's also some 26% chance it ends in a draw.

      Delete
    2. I'm still having a hard time making it end in a 0.04% for the group, i.e. basically no chance. If their chances of beating Sri Lanka is what, 60% at least, then they have at least a 27% chance of ending with 1 draw and 1 defeat at worst. And 1 draw and 1 defeat is what China is already at with a match against Syria still remaining. And China's group is at 90% of providing a qualifier via 2nd place table. And group C will for sure have a 2nd place team which is worse than 1 draw and 1 defeat, and they are at 86%.

      Delete
    3. I agree with the comment above.. Should Lebanon win against SriLanka and Turkmenistan they will reach 13 pts .. that's tally is more than enough to guarantee a place between the best 4 (or 5) runners up.. I wonder whether there is a mistake in your simulation Ed.. I guess you're ignoring Lebanon's results against SriLanka in your simulation while in fact in Group H no matches are to be ignored as it only has 4 teams after the withdrawal of DPR Korea..
      For me Group H runner up has one of the highest chances to qualify

      Delete
    4. Sorry to take so long to respond, but I was very busy this week and wanted to research this first properly.

      But you are all absolutety right, guys. The table for group runners-up wasn't determined correctly. My apologies.
      Above you will find the results of new simulations, including the two matches in group H of June 5th as played and the group D match simulated.

      Delete
  5. Ed-
    In doing my own simulation for this qualifier, I've struggled to figure out how they will seed for pots in the 3rd round... do they use FIFA rankings at the time?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Alex, it's World Cup qualification, so FIFA rules and they will always apply seeding based on a FIFA ranking. Which one they will use for the third round draw depends on the draw date, because the next complete and up-to-date ranking will be only available on August 12th and I don't think they will wait that long with the draw.
    So it will be the May ranking they will use to seed the draw for the third round with the 12 teams seeded in 6 pots of 2.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Ed!
      Seedings for uefa playoffs will be based on the group stage record, not fifa ranking. I hope they will apply the same rule for afc third round it is completely unfair that ruuner up from the second stage will be seeded before any group winner. Remember shameful seeding for world cup 2014 between japan and uzbekistan.

      Delete
    2. Mick, you are right, I forgot this exception UEFA has apparently got confirmed by FIFA to use a qualification ranking instead of the FIFA ranking for seeding.
      This is against the main seeding principle FIFA stipulates in their regulations over and over again: for seeding the FIFA ranking must be used.
      Maybe this case is used now as a precedent for other confederations to divert more frequently from what is about FIFA's one and only clear-cut rule in their regulations :)

      Delete
    3. UEFA playoffs will be specific because there is a single leg. Every team have to fight for a home ground. It is logical to that fight must be result of the group stage rather than points earned in tournaments not related with this World Cup.
      However, such seeding should be applied everywhere. Syria was too much in front of China in the same second stage group of AFC qualifiers. Now China is placed in the higher pot because of what? World Cup 2014, Asian Cup 2015, friendly games, World Cup 2018, Asian Cup 2019. All those results must be ignored now, Only this qualification campaign should be considered.

      Delete
  7. India currently have 1184.36 points. They have lost to qatar. Won against bangladesh. One match left ie Afghanistan. Can you kindly tell what will be india's total points after the match against afghanistan if they win against afghanistan also??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I mean total fifa ranking points after those two wins

      Delete
  8. India has 1183,53 after the loss to Qatar and the win over Bangladesh. A win over Afghanistan delivers 9,4 pts to a total of 1192,91. A draw costs 3,1 pts (to 1180,41) and a loss costs 15,6 pts (to 1167,91).

    ReplyDelete
  9. There will be a special release of the FIFA Rankings for Asian teams on June 18, 2021, according to the AFC. This will determine the pots for the next round. Are you going to do a preview for this now the last match day for round 2 is finished? Cheers, MATT.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Matt, I see that the draw for the third Asian qualification round will be on July 1st and that indeed they will use the current FIFA ranking (dated June 18th) for Asian teams. Here are the pots for that draw with in brackets the current FIFA points for each team:

    pot 1: Japan (1529), Iran (1522)
    pot 2: Australia (1477), Korea Republic (1475)
    pot 3: Saudi Arabia (1386), United Arab Emirates (1362)
    pot 4: Iraq (1355), China PR (1353)
    pot 5: Oman (1306), Syria (1303)
    pot 6: Vietnam (1261), Lebanon (1237)

    ReplyDelete
  11. Does anyone else think Lebanon were very lucky to make it through and only did because of North Korea's withdrawal and all their results being nullified? Tajikistan in particular must feel a bit aggrieved about this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lebanon were lucky but Tajikistan were not unlucky.

      If North Korea had stayed in most likely they would have been in the top 12 (13).

      Delete
  12. I look forward to seeing the probabilities for the next stage of AFC WCQ.

    ReplyDelete