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Sunday, July 18, 2021

AFC qualification World Cup 2022 (July 2021)

The draw for the Asian third qualification round for the World Cup 2022 in Qatar has been made some weeks ago. This is the final group stage with two groups of 6 teams. The ten group matches will be played between September and March next year.

Numbers one and two from each group qualify for Qatar. The two numbers three play a single-legged play-off in June  2022 to determine the Asian number five which will play an interconfederational play-off (also in June 2022) against an opponent from a yet unknown confederation (the CONCACAF 4th, the CONMEBOL 5th or the OFC 1st).


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Iran

54,71

32,52

10,16

2,10

0,42

0,09

Korea Republic

36,62

41,76

16,57

3,98

0,91

0,16

Iraq

7,30

18,81

42,38

20,73

8,37

2,41

United Arab Emirates

0,92

4,44

16,87

34,50

27,57

15,70

Syria

0,41

1,96

10,46

26,24

36,05

24,88

Lebanon

0,04

0,51

3,56

12,45

26,68

56,76



group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Japan

50,58

30,99

12,32

4,38

1,45

0,28

Australia

37,27

37,96

16,04

5,81

2,29

0,63

Saudi Arabia

8,49

17,65

33,90

20,63

12,82

6,51

China PR

1,71

5,65

15,36

27,53

27,72

22,03

Oman

1,64

5,78

15,88

26,15

28,26

22,29

Vietnam

0,31

1,97

6,50

15,50

27,46

48,26



To qualify for the 5th place play-off and to win it. In square brackets to win it when qualified for this play-off:


team

qualify

win

Iraq

42,38

31,66

[74,71]

Saudi Arabia

33,90

9,15

[26,99]

United Arab Emirates

16,87

10,44

[61,89]

Korea Republic

16,57

13,99

[84,43]

Australia

16,04

6,70

[41,77]

Oman

15,88

2,96

[18,64]

China PR

15,36

2,99

[19,47]

Japan

12,32

5,39

[43,75]

Syria

10,46

5,48

[52,39]

Iran

10,16

8,87

[87,30]

Vietnam

6,50

0,83

[12,77]

Lebanon

3,56

1,54

[43,26]



To qualify for the World Cup as number one or two in the group (simulation of the interconfederational play-offs is not possible as the pairings are not drawn yet):

 

team

WC

Iran

87,23

Japan

81,57

Korea Republic

78,38

Australia

75,23

Saudi Arabia

26,14

Iraq

26,11

Oman

7,42

China PR

7,36

United Arab Emirates

5,36

Syria

2,37

Vietnam

2,28

Lebanon

0,55


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

6 comments:

  1. hi
    I think Iran is best team in AFC

    ReplyDelete
  2. سلام
    ایران سرور عربستان هست
    عرب سوسمار خور
    ایران و کره و ژاپن و استرالیا و چین صعود میکنند

    ReplyDelete
  3. Please, use English here and... refrain from insults. Nobody wants to read that.

    ReplyDelete
  4. You can truly see the value of a team rising in FIFA rankings from this draw particularly... even thought Iraq is a higher rated team than Saudi Arabia (1621 vs 1608), by virtue of being in the lower pot they have a worse chance of advancing (more higher rated teams to play). Feels that this way of reseeding for groups punishes teams "on the rise" as opposed to traditional powers. Not a huge impact but noticeable here. Thanks as always for the analysis

    ReplyDelete
  5. Is there any word on when FIFA will make the draw for the 2 inter-continental play-offs for the final two World Cup spots next year?

    ReplyDelete