Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (21 October 2021)
Twitter

Wednesday, August 25, 2021

FIFA ranking: September 2021 probable results

Here are the probable results of all 182 currently scheduled matches up to and including September 9th, used to calculate the September 2021 probable ranking. The results are generated using elo ratings.

Also the already played matches since August 8th, (probably) counting for the September ranking, are presented.


The 1 or 0 before each match indicates if the match is included (1) or not (0) according to my inclusion-method. Also the Home Team Win Expectancy (We) according to elo is given for each match in %.


Before posting comments like: "Hey, my team actually beat the other team ! It's a mistake !" please take note that these are calculated predictions of scheduled matches. So no, they don't constitute my personal opinion about the matches. Just mathematics doing the job :)


Already played

1 2021-08-21 El Salvador - Costa Rica; Friendly; X

0 2021-08-22 Sudan - Niger; Friendly; 2


Scheduled

0 2021-08-26 Ethiopia - Sierra Leone; Friendly; We (elo): 57; X
0 2021-08-26 Sudan - Niger; Friendly; We (elo): 69; 1
0 2021-08-26 Syria - Uganda; Friendly; We (elo): 63; X
0 2021-08-27 El Salvador - Venezuela; Friendly; We (elo): 23; 2
0 2021-08-29 Ethiopia - Uganda; Friendly; We (elo): 47; X
1 2021-09-01 Central African Republic - Cape Verde Islands; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 29; 2
1 2021-09-01 Mali - Rwanda; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 78; 1
1 2021-09-01 Libya - Gabon; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 49; X
1 2021-09-01 Senegal - Togo; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 95; 1
1 2021-09-01 Guinea-Bissau - Guinea; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 38; 2
1 2021-09-01 Luxembourg - Azerbaijan; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 66; 1
1 2021-09-01 Portugal - Republic of Ireland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 94; 1
1 2021-09-01 France - Bosnia-Herzegovina; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 96; 1
1 2021-09-01 Kazakhstan - Ukraine; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 12; 2
1 2021-09-01 Denmark - Scotland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 92; 1
1 2021-09-01 Faroe Islands - Israel; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 20; 2
1 2021-09-01 Moldova - Austria; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 7; 2
1 2021-09-01 Latvia - Gibraltar; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 84; 1
1 2021-09-01 Norway - Netherlands; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 38; 2
1 2021-09-01 Turkey - Montenegro; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 85; 1
1 2021-09-01 Malta - Cyprus; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 44; X
1 2021-09-01 Russia - Croatia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 51; X
1 2021-09-01 Slovenia - Slovakia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 57; X
0 2021-09-01 Bahrain - Haiti; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 68; 1
1 2021-09-01 Finland - Wales; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 48; X
1 2021-09-01 Qatar - Serbia; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 38; X
1 2021-09-01 Switzerland - Greece; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 89; 1
1 2021-09-02 Iran - Syria; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 93; 1
1 2021-09-02 Korea Republic - Iraq; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 80; 1
1 2021-09-02 United Arab Emirates - Lebanon; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 79; 1
1 2021-09-02 Australia - China PR; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 79; 1
1 2021-09-02 Japan - Oman; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 89; 1
1 2021-09-02 Saudi Arabia - Vietnam; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 84; 1
1 2021-09-02 Algeria - Djibouti; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 100; 1
1 2021-09-02 Niger - Burkina Faso; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 15; 2
1 2021-09-02 Kenya - Uganda; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 55; X
1 2021-09-02 Egypt - Angola; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 87; 1
1 2021-09-02 Namibia - Congo; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 51; X
1 2021-09-02 Morocco - Sudan; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 91; 1
1 2021-09-02 Congo DR - Tanzania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 82; 1
1 2021-09-02 Madagascar - Benin; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 55; X
1 2021-09-02 Canada - Honduras; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 80; 1
1 2021-09-02 El Salvador - USA; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 21; 2
1 2021-09-02 Mexico - Jamaica; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 92; 1
1 2021-09-02 Panama - Costa Rica; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 52; X
1 2021-09-02 Bolivia - Colombia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 20; 2
1 2021-09-02 Chile - Brazil; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 22; 2
1 2021-09-02 Ecuador - Paraguay; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 60; X
1 2021-09-02 Peru - Uruguay; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 47; X
1 2021-09-02 Venezuela - Argentina; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 23; 2
1 2021-09-02 Georgia - Kosovo; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 70; 1
1 2021-09-02 Sweden - Spain; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 42; X
1 2021-09-02 Italy - Bulgaria; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 98; 1
1 2021-09-02 Lithuania - Northern Ireland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 30; 2
1 2021-09-02 Czech Republic - Belarus; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 93; 1
1 2021-09-02 Estonia - Belgium; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 3; 2
1 2021-09-02 Andorra - San Marino; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 85; 1
1 2021-09-02 Hungary - England; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 26; 2
1 2021-09-02 Poland - Albania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 86; 1
1 2021-09-02 Iceland - Romania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 62; 1
1 2021-09-02 Liechtenstein - Germany; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 1; 2
1 2021-09-02 North Macedonia - Armenia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 62; 1
0 2021-09-02 Comoros - Seychelles; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 91; 1
0 2021-09-02 Kyrgyzstan - Palestine; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 37; X
1 2021-09-02 Nepal - India; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 29; 2
1 2021-09-03 Mauritania - Zambia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 58; X
1 2021-09-03 Tunisia - Equatorial Guinea; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 90; 1
1 2021-09-03 Nigeria - Liberia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 92; 1
1 2021-09-03 Cameroon - Malawi; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 88; 1
1 2021-09-03 Mozambique - Cote d'Ivoire; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 21; 2
1 2021-09-03 Ghana - Ethiopia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 89; 1
1 2021-09-03 Zimbabwe - South Africa; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 42; X
1 2021-09-04 Republic of Ireland - Azerbaijan; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 89; 1
1 2021-09-04 Serbia - Luxembourg; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 94; 1
1 2021-09-04 Finland - Kazakhstan; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 94; 1
1 2021-09-04 Ukraine - France; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 27; 2
1 2021-09-04 Faroe Islands - Denmark; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 3; 2
1 2021-09-04 Israel - Austria; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 41; X
1 2021-09-04 Scotland - Moldova; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 95; 1
1 2021-09-04 Gibraltar - Turkey; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 4; 2
1 2021-09-04 Latvia - Norway; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 13; 2
1 2021-09-04 Netherlands - Montenegro; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 95; 1
1 2021-09-04 Cyprus - Russia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 18; 2
1 2021-09-04 Slovakia - Croatia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 42; X
1 2021-09-04 Slovenia - Malta; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 94; 1
0 2021-09-04 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Kuwait; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 89; 1
0 2021-09-04 Gambia - Seychelles; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 94; 1
0 2021-09-04 Jordan - Haiti; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 55; X
1 2021-09-04 Qatar - Portugal; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 15; 2
1 2021-09-05 Rwanda - Kenya; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 54; X
1 2021-09-05 Gabon - Egypt; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 39; X
1 2021-09-05 Togo - Namibia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 52; X
1 2021-09-05 Costa Rica - Mexico; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 29; 2
1 2021-09-05 El Salvador - Honduras; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 57; X
1 2021-09-05 Jamaica - Panama; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 67; 1
1 2021-09-05 USA - Canada; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 80; 1
1 2021-09-05 Brazil - Argentina; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 71; 1
1 2021-09-05 Ecuador - Chile; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 63; 1
1 2021-09-05 Paraguay - Colombia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 48; X
1 2021-09-05 Peru - Venezuela; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 72; 1
1 2021-09-05 Uruguay - Bolivia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 93; 1
1 2021-09-05 Kosovo - Greece; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 38; 2
1 2021-09-05 Spain - Georgia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 97; 1
1 2021-09-05 Bulgaria - Lithuania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 84; 1
1 2021-09-05 Switzerland - Italy; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 40; X
1 2021-09-05 Belarus - Wales; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 21; 2
1 2021-09-05 Belgium - Czech Republic; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 90; 1
1 2021-09-05 Albania - Hungary; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 37; 2
1 2021-09-05 England - Andorra; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 100; 1
1 2021-09-05 San Marino - Poland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 1; 2
1 2021-09-05 Germany - Armenia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 93; 1
1 2021-09-05 Iceland - North Macedonia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 70; 1
1 2021-09-05 Romania - Liechtenstein; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 97; 1
0 2021-09-05 Bangladesh - Palestine; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 3; 2
1 2021-09-05 Estonia - Northern Ireland; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 40; X
1 2021-09-05 Nepal - India; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 27; 2
0 2021-09-05 Sweden - Uzbekistan; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 92; 1
1 2021-09-06 Djibouti - Niger; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 13; 2
1 2021-09-06 Liberia - Central African Republic; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 70; 1
1 2021-09-06 Cote d'Ivoire - Cameroon; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 75; 1
1 2021-09-06 Uganda - Mali; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 50; X
1 2021-09-06 South Africa - Ghana; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 51; X
1 2021-09-06 Guinea - Morocco; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 32; 2
1 2021-09-06 Benin - Congo DR; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 58; X
1 2021-09-07 Guam - Cambodia; Continental final qualifier; We (elo): 49; X
1 2021-09-07 Indonesia - Chinese Taipei; Continental final qualifier; We (elo): 84; 1
1 2021-09-07 Iraq - Iran; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 25; 2
1 2021-09-07 Korea Republic - Lebanon; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 95; 1
1 2021-09-07 Syria - United Arab Emirates; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 42; X
1 2021-09-07 China PR - Japan; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 17; 2
1 2021-09-07 Oman - Saudi Arabia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 48; X
1 2021-09-07 Vietnam - Australia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 21; 2
1 2021-09-07 Burkina Faso - Algeria; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 23; 2
1 2021-09-07 Equatorial Guinea - Mauritania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 58; X
1 2021-09-07 Zambia - Tunisia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 37; 2
1 2021-09-07 Cape Verde Islands - Nigeria; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 34; 2
1 2021-09-07 Malawi - Mozambique; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 49; X
1 2021-09-07 Angola - Libya; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 68; 1
1 2021-09-07 Ethiopia - Zimbabwe; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 59; X
1 2021-09-07 Congo - Senegal; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 22; 2
1 2021-09-07 Sudan - Guinea-Bissau; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 70; 1
1 2021-09-07 Tanzania - Madagascar; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 55; X
1 2021-09-07 Azerbaijan - Portugal; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 4; 2
1 2021-09-07 Republic of Ireland - Serbia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 42; X
1 2021-09-07 Bosnia-Herzegovina - Kazakhstan; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 90; 1
1 2021-09-07 France - Finland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 94; 1
1 2021-09-07 Austria - Scotland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 81; 1
1 2021-09-07 Denmark - Israel; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 93; 1
1 2021-09-07 Faroe Islands - Moldova; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 69; 1
1 2021-09-07 Montenegro - Latvia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 87; 1
1 2021-09-07 Netherlands - Turkey; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 85; 1
1 2021-09-07 Norway - Gibraltar; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 99; 1
1 2021-09-07 Croatia - Slovenia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 85; 1
1 2021-09-07 Russia - Malta; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 97; 1
1 2021-09-07 Slovakia - Cyprus; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 92; 1
0 2021-09-07 Bahrain - Jordan; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 76; 1
0 2021-09-07 Comoros - Gambia; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 42; X
0 2021-09-07 Kyrgyzstan - Bangladesh; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 95; 1
1 2021-09-07 Luxembourg - Qatar; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 24; 2
1 2021-09-08 Canada - El Salvador; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 85; 1
1 2021-09-08 Costa Rica - Jamaica; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 69; 1
1 2021-09-08 Honduras - USA; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 23; 2
1 2021-09-08 Panama - Mexico; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 17; 2
1 2021-09-08 Greece - Sweden; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 37; 2
1 2021-09-08 Kosovo - Spain; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 6; 2
1 2021-09-08 Italy - Lithuania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 99; 1
1 2021-09-08 Northern Ireland - Switzerland; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 19; 2
1 2021-09-08 Belarus - Belgium; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 4; 2
1 2021-09-08 Wales - Estonia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 95; 1
1 2021-09-08 Albania - San Marino; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 99; 1
1 2021-09-08 Hungary - Andorra; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 99; 1
1 2021-09-08 Poland - England; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 26; 2
1 2021-09-08 Armenia - Liechtenstein; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 96; 1
1 2021-09-08 Iceland - Germany; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 26; 2
1 2021-09-08 North Macedonia - Romania; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 58; X
0 2021-09-08 Bulgaria - Georgia; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 60; X
1 2021-09-08 Czech Republic - Ukraine; Friendly (in IMC-window); We (elo): 70; 1
1 2021-09-09 Argentina - Bolivia; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 97; 1
1 2021-09-09 Brazil - Peru; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 91; 1
1 2021-09-09 Colombia - Chile; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 82; 1
1 2021-09-09 Paraguay - Venezuela; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 74; 1
1 2021-09-09 Uruguay - Ecuador; World Cup qualifier; We (elo): 80; 1


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

7 comments:

  1. 42% chance for Sweden to beat Spain in Stockholm? Is that right Ed? If so, I hope math is right! Hopefully Sweden can leave Spain 5 points behind after MD 3 and 4. The NL semifinalists (Spain included!) will play 3 non-friendly matches in seven days so I also hope that it might affect Spains quality and energy on MD 4 away in Kosovo.

    Go Sweden! And thanks Ed!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's the win expectancy (draws not included) based ranking point differential. Based on what model you use, a 42 We would work out to ~29% Sweden win, ~28% draw, and ~ 43% Spain win

      Delete
  2. Indeed, We = 42% gives in my NT-model the following probabilities for the home team Sweden: to win 33%, to draw 27% and to lose 39%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Does your NT model account for home field advantage?

      Delete
  3. Yes, in the calculated win expectancy We the home field advantage is incorporated. That's just standard elo.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Vous n'avez pris en compte les 2 matchs amicaux de l'Algérie.
    Algerie 2 Syrie 1
    Algérie 3 Burundi 0.
    Bien que c'est la 2ème équipe de l'Algérie, mais ses resultats comptes dans le classement fifa.
    La preuve que la FIFA a comptabilisé la victoire de cette équipe sur le Liberia 5 à 0 .
    Merci

    ReplyDelete
  5. Thanks for the feedback. Indeed those two Algerian friendlies are not included because they are mentioned in only one source, not both my sources for matches.
    Btw, the friendly Algeria - Liberia (5:1, 17-6-2021 in Oran) was not included in the August ranking by FIFA.

    ReplyDelete