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Sunday, May 29, 2022

AFC Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

The qualification for the AFC Nations Cup 2023 is divided in two parts:

  • the Asian first and second stage in the qualification for the World Cup 2022 delivered 12 teams: the 8 group winners and the 4 best group runners-up (excluding host China) of the second group stage qualify. China was one of the four best runners-up;
  • the rest of the teams entered the separate qualification path for the remaining 11 berths in the 24-team AFC Nations Cup 2023: two play-offs in October 2021 to wittle the remaining teams down to 24 and a group stage with 6 groups of 4 teams. The 6 group winners and the 5 best group runners-up qualify.


China is as host, although they of course participated in the World Cup qualification, automatically qualified for the continental final. From the WC qualification part the 8 group winners qualified (Syria, Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Japan, United Arab Emirates and Korea Republic) together with the 4 best runners-up (Oman, Iraq, Vietnam and Lebanon).


The final qualification group stage is, due to the ongoing COVID-19 measures in Asia, reduced to a single round-robin group stage with only 3 matches per team in centralised venues. These matches will be played this June window.

By the way: on May 14th 2022, the AFC announced that China would not be able to host the continental showpiece tournament in June 2023, due to the circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and China's Zero-COVID policy.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


The group results with teams ordered by average group position. Hosts of the six centralised groups are indicated with (H):


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Jordan

59,07

32,30

8,42

0,21

Kuwait (H)

35,24

47,06

16,17

1,53

Indonesia

5,61

19,26

57,88

17,25

Nepal

0,08

1,38

17,53

81,01

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Palestine

73,99

19,13

5,80

1,08

Yemen

14,89

46,10

28,25

10,76

Philippines

9,75

26,61

43,42

20,22

Mongolia (H)

1,37

8,16

22,53

67,94

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Uzbekistan (H)

74,82

24,86

0,32

0,00

Thailand

25,14

70,42

4,37

0,07

Maldives

0,04

4,38

65,04

30,54

Sri Lanka

0,00

0,34

30,27

69,39

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

India (H)

56,59

28,29

12,74

2,38

Hong Kong

21,68

32,38

37,36

8,58

Afghanistan

20,84

34,50

31,94

12,72

Cambodia

0,89

4,83

17,96

76,32

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Bahrain

65,54

24,81

9,35

0,30

Turkmenistan

19,16

38,36

38,65

3,83

Malaysia (H)

15,23

36,07

42,64

6,06

Bangladesh

0,07

0,76

9,36

89,81

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Kyrgyzstan (H)

50,56

33,79

12,80

2,85

Tajikistan

37,61

37,43

18,31

6,65

Singapore

10,00

21,40

45,64

22,96

Myanmar

1,83

7,38

23,25

67,54



The probabilities to qualify for the AFC Nations Cup 2023, as group winner (column nr1) or as one of the 5 best runners-up (column nr2_q). Teams are ordered by their total qualification probability:


team

nr 1

nr2_q

total

Uzbekistan

74,82

24,75

99,57

Thailand

25,14

69,42

94,56

Palestine

73,99

16,71

90,70

Jordan

59,07

30,91

89,98

Bahrain

65,54

23,75

89,29

India

56,59

24,75

81,34

Kyrgyzstan

50,56

30,02

80,58

Kuwait

35,24

43,16

78,40

Tajikistan

37,61

29,53

67,14

Turkmenistan

19,16

31,77

50,93

Hong Kong

21,68

25,92

47,60

-----------------------

Yemen

14,89

32,16

47,05

Afghanistan

20,84

25,64

46,48

Malaysia

15,23

30,93

46,16

Philippines

9,75

18,07

27,82

Singapore

10,00

15,23

25,23

Indonesia

5,61

14,15

19,76

Myanmar

1,83

3,69

5,52

Mongolia

1,37

4,13

5,50

Cambodia

0,89

2,24

3,13

Maldives

0,04

2,18

2,22

Nepal

0,08

0,48

0,56

Bangladesh

0,07

0,23

0,30

Sri Lanka

0,00

0,18

0,18



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. Given that Qatar didn’t participate in the WC qualification third round, how will the pots be distributed for the Asian Cup? There are 12+1 teams for 12 places in pots 1+2. Will the worst-ranked team be pushed down to pot 3?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Normally, AFC uses the FIFA ranking (at the time of the draw) for the seeding of pots for the final tournament, with the host always in pot 1.
    Now, the new host is yet unknown. But assuming it will be one of the other twelve already qualified teams, it's a safe guess that the worst-ranked team of the 12+1 teams will end up in pot 3.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks. When will the draw be made / what fifa ranking month will be used?

      Delete