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Thursday, May 26, 2022

CAF Nations Cup 2023 qualification simulations (May 2022)

This June window the group stage starts in the qualification for the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire in June next year. In March preliminary play-offs were played to wittle the 54 entered African teams down to 48. Now the group stage with 12 groups of 4 teams starts with two matchdays in June, two in September and two in March next year. The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the 24-team continental final.


Notes:

- Host Cote d'Ivoire participates in this qualification. In their group H only the highest ranked team, besides the host, qualifies.

- Kenya and Zimbabwe were included in the group stage draw but last week suspended for this tournament after all because their ongoing FIFA suspension -because of unpermitted governmental interference with the national football association- wasn't lifted in time. Thus, groups C and K are reduced to 3 teams, of which the best 2 qualify.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Nigeria

78,30

17,69

3,97

0,04

Guinea-Bissau

13,56

47,58

35,71

3,15

Sierra Leone

8,11

33,71

53,56

4,62

Mauritius

0,03

1,02

6,76

92,19

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Burkina Faso

47,66

32,08

14,41

5,85

Cape Verde Islands

37,90

33,57

20,00

8,53

Togo

9,96

22,16

36,78

31,10

Eswatini

4,48

12,19

28,81

54,52

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

Cameroon

88,37

10,22

1,41

Namibia

8,63

52,11

39,26

Burundi

3,00

37,67

59,33

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Egypt

88,68

9,39

1,60

0,33

Guinea

6,65

40,35

30,76

22,24

Ethiopia

1,98

25,49

34,91

37,62

Malawi

2,69

24,77

32,73

39,81

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Ghana

64,38

22,39

9,52

3,71

Angola

18,59

34,57

29,00

17,84

Madagascar

11,41

26,26

33,15

29,18

Central African Republic

5,62

16,78

28,33

49,27

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Algeria

82,17

14,33

3,08

0,42

Uganda

12,23

49,48

27,68

10,61

Tanzania

4,54

26,58

43,07

25,81

Niger

1,06

9,61

26,17

63,16

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Mali

77,97

18,58

3,34

0,11

Gambia

17,09

53,84

24,16

4,91

Congo

4,74

23,98

54,28

17,00

South Sudan

0,20

3,60

18,22

77,98

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cote d'Ivoire

88,75

10,26

0,91

0,08

Zambia

9,31

59,66

23,45

7,58

Comoros

1,69

21,73

46,54

30,04

Lesotho

0,25

8,35

29,10

62,30

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Congo DR

47,18

29,17

15,70

7,95

Gabon

32,58

32,74

22,45

12,23

Mauritania

11,49

21,34

31,59

35,58

Sudan

8,75

16,75

30,26

44,24

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Tunisia

69,84

20,84

6,81

2,51

Equatorial Guinea

18,22

41,25

26,83

13,70

Libya

7,18

21,06

35,42

36,34

Botswana

4,76

16,85

30,94

47,45

group K

1st

2nd

3rd

Morocco

82,00

17,20

0,80

South Africa

17,39

67,60

15,01

Liberia

0,61

15,20

84,19

group L

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Senegal

85,72

12,31

1,78

0,19

Benin

11,63

56,76

23,17

8,44

Rwanda

1,51

15,95

39,54

43,00

Mozambique

1,14

14,98

35,51

48,37



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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