Latest updates

Check the Important info page for latest updates! (23 June 2022)
Twitter

Friday, May 27, 2022

CONCACAF Nations League 2022/23 simulations (May 2022)

The second edition of the CONCACAF Nations League starts in this June window. All 41 CONCACAF-members participate and are drawn in three leagues:

  • league A has 4 groups of 3 teams
  • league B has 4 groups of 4 teams
  • league C has 1 group of 4 teams and 3 groups of 3 teams

There are 4 match days in June and 2 in March next year. The four group winners in league A qualify for the Final Four in June 2023.

There is also promotion/relegation between the leagues: the winners of the groups in leagues B and C are promoted while the numbers last in each group in league A and B relegate. The draw of the groups was in April and seeded based on the CONCACAF ranking.


The Nations League serves as qualification tournament for the 16-team Gold Cup 2023:

  • numbers 1 and 2 from each group in league A are qualified, as are the 4 group winners in league B (12 teams in total)
  • the group numbers last in league A, the group runners-up in league B and the group winners in league C (12 teams in total) qualify for the second qualification round for the Gold Cup, a series of play-offs to determine the final 3 berths. These play-offs will be played in June 2023
  • the anomaly exists that Qatar as an invitee is directly qualified for the Gold Cup 2023, although the current match calendar shows a complete overlap with the 24-team AFC Nations Cup 2023 in June/July 2023 for which Qatar is also qualified (and they are also the defending Asian champions). How this scheduling conflict will be solved is yet unclear.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


The group results with teams ordered by average group position:

group A-1

1st

2nd

3rd

Mexico

88,65

10,59

0,76

Jamaica

10,12

69,63

20,25

Suriname

1,23

19,78

78,99

group A-2

1st

2nd

3rd

Costa Rica

68,70

26,17

5,13

Panama

28,04

54,25

17,71

Martinique

3,26

19,58

77,16

group A-3

1st

2nd

3rd

Canada

89,79

9,05

1,16

Honduras

5,94

50,21

43,85

Curacao

4,27

40,74

54,99

group A-4

1st

2nd

3rd

USA

90,37

9,50

0,13

El Salvador

9,54

83,79

6,67

Grenada

0,09

6,71

93,20

group B-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Cuba

52,34

29,12

14,09

4,45

Guadeloupe

31,35

37,03

22,71

8,91

Antigua and Barbuda

13,36

24,95

39,98

21,71

Barbados

2,95

8,90

23,22

64,93

group B-2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Haiti

78,77

16,79

4,17

0,27

Bermuda

13,11

47,73

35,46

3,70

Guyana

8,08

33,68

51,23

7,01

Montserrat

0,04

1,80

9,14

89,02

group B-3

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Trinidad and Tobago

63,41

27,59

8,49

0,51

Nicaragua

27,11

44,56

24,87

3,46

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

9,26

25,66

52,81

12,27

Bahamas

0,22

2,19

13,83

83,76

group B-4

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Guatemala

79,33

15,64

4,14

0,89

French Guyana

12,93

43,20

28,39

15,48

Dominican Republic

5,19

25,54

36,19

33,08

Belize

2,55

15,62

31,28

50,55

group C-1

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Bonaire

55,04

26,41

12,91

5,64

Turks and Caicos Islands

21,36

32,08

27,95

18,61

St. Maarten

17,17

25,78

31,11

25,94

US Virgin Islands

6,43

15,73

28,03

49,81

group C-2

1st

2nd

3rd

St. Kitts and Nevis

89,90

8,71

1,39

Aruba

4,87

49,50

45,63

St. Martin

5,23

41,79

52,98

group C-3

1st

2nd

3rd

St. Lucia

49,67

47,79

2,54

Dominica

49,75

46,98

3,27

Anguilla

0,58

5,23

94,19

group C-4

1st

2nd

3rd

Puerto Rico

75,38

22,83

1,79

Cayman Islands

23,27

65,13

11,60

British Virgin Islands

1,35

12,04

86,61




The probabilities to qualify for the Final Four from league A:

USA

90,37

Canada

89,79

Mexico

88,65

Costa Rica

68,70

Panama

28,04

Jamaica

10,12

El Salvador

9,54

Honduras

5,94

Curacao

4,27

Martinique

3,26

Suriname

1,23

Grenada

0,09



To qualify for the final. In square brackets the probability to qualify for the final, given qualification for the Final Four as a League A group winner:

Canada

74,17

[82,60]

Mexico

70,97

[80,06]

USA

24,66

[27,29]

Costa Rica

17,70

[25,76]

Panama

4,94

[17,62]

Jamaica

3,46

[34,19]

Honduras

1,76

[29,63]

Curacao

1,24

[29,04]

El Salvador

0,76

[7,97]

Martinique

0,19

[5,83]

Suriname

0,15

[12,20]

Grenada

0,00

[0,00]



To win the Nations League. In square brackets the probability to win, given qualification for the final:

Canada

53,50

[72,13]

Mexico

23,54

[33,17]

Costa Rica

11,84

[66,89]

USA

8,22

[33,33]

Panama

1,71

[34,62]

Honduras

0,42

[23,86]

Jamaica

0,37

[10,69]

Curacao

0,25

[20,16]

El Salvador

0,10

[13,16]

Martinique

0,04

[21,05]

Suriname

0,01

[6,67]

Grenada

0,00

[0,00]



To qualify for the Gold Cup 2023:

USA

99,87

Mexico

99,24

Canada

98,84

Costa Rica

94,87

El Salvador

93,33

Panama

82,29

Jamaica

79,75

Guatemala

79,33

Haiti

78,77

Trinidad and Tobago

63,41

Honduras

56,15

Cuba

52,34

Curacao

45,01

Guadeloupe

31,35

Nicaragua

27,11

Martinique

22,84

Suriname

21,01

Antigua and Barbuda

13,36

Bermuda

13,11

French Guyana

12,93

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

9,26

Guyana

8,08

Grenada

6,80

Dominican Republic

5,19

Barbados

2,95

Belize

2,55

Bahamas

0,22

Montserrat

0,04

US Virgin Islands

0,00

Bonaire

0,00

Turks and Caicos Islands

0,00

St. Maarten

0,00

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,00

Aruba

0,00

St. Martin

0,00

Dominica

0,00

St. Lucia

0,00

Anguilla

0,00

Puerto Rico

0,00

Cayman Islands

0,00

British Virgin Islands

0,00



To qualify for the Gold Cup 2023 second qualification round (play-offs):

Grenada

93,20

St. Kitts and Nevis

89,90

Suriname

78,99

Martinique

77,16

Puerto Rico

75,38

Bonaire

55,04

Curacao

54,99

Dominica

49,75

St. Lucia

49,67

Bermuda

47,73

Nicaragua

44,56

Honduras

43,85

French Guyana

43,20

Guadeloupe

37,03

Guyana

33,68

Cuba

29,12

Trinidad and Tobago

27,59

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

25,66

Dominican Republic

25,54

Antigua and Barbuda

24,95

Cayman Islands

23,27

Turks and Caicos Islands

21,36

Jamaica

20,25

Panama

17,71

St. Maarten

17,17

Haiti

16,79

Guatemala

15,64

Belize

15,62

Barbados

8,90

El Salvador

6,67

US Virgin Islands

6,43

St. Martin

5,23

Costa Rica

5,13

Aruba

4,87

Bahamas

2,19

Montserrat

1,80

British Virgin Islands

1,35

Canada

1,16

Mexico

0,76

Anguilla

0,58

USA

0,13



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

1 comment: