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Monday, September 5, 2022

FIFA ranking: October 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 6th. This ranking will include the matches in the September window in the conclusion of the UEFA Nations League group stage plus a lot of (preparatory) friendlies for WC-participants all over the world. Also the Melanesian Cup will be played again -for the first time in 22 years- in Vanuatu.

The originally scheduled match days three and four of AFCON 2023 qualifying are recently postponed to next March because the AFCON 2023 in Cote d'Ivoire is also postponed from July 2023 to January 2024, again with the argument that football in July in the Tropics is not a good idea. Now this window is used to give the African participants at the World Cup the opportunity for some much needed interconfederational practice.


In this ranking the second and final round of qualification play-offs for the African Nations Championship 2023 are also included. And o yeah, the postponed qualifier between Brazil and Argentina is finally definitely cancelled. Really no one was waiting for that match anyway.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 139 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 158 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are included.


pos Oct.

team

pts Oct.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Brazil

1841,29

0

3,73

2

Belgium

1816,71

0

-5,21

3

Argentina

1773,88

0

3,23

4

France

1767,38

0

2,53

5

England

1728,69

0

-8,77

6

Spain

1722,40

0

5,47

7

Italy

1718,47

0

4,61

8

Netherlands

1694,51

0

15,10

9

Portugal

1676,89

0

-1,76

10

Denmark

1666,46

0

0,99

11

Germany

1665,00

0

6,04

12

Uruguay

1648,63

1

7,68

13

Mexico

1644,94

-1

-4,63

14

USA

1637,39

0

2,38

15

Croatia

1630,74

0

-1,41

16

Switzerland

1621,23

0

-0,20

17

Colombia

1606,00

0

1,93

18

Wales

1584,82

1

2,69

19

Senegal

1579,58

-1

-5,01

20

Peru

1563,04

1

0,80

21

Sweden

1560,64

-1

-2,80

22

Morocco

1558,55

1

0,20

23

Serbia

1556,33

2

6,80

24

Japan

1554,63

0

-0,06

25

Iran

1554,42

-3

-4,22

26

Ukraine

1551,70

1

8,91

27

Korea Republic

1535,30

1

9,28

28

Poland

1533,59

-2

-12,59

29

Chile

1514,57

0

-0,29

30

Tunisia

1505,67

0

-2,19

31

Austria

1500,35

2

-2,12

32

Czech Republic

1499,40

0

-3,50

33

Costa Rica

1498,59

1

-1,47

34

Nigeria

1498,47

-3

-6,23

35

Norway

1495,33

1

6,76

36

Russia

1493,42

-1

0

37

Algeria

1489,10

4

8,51

38

Hungary

1484,88

-1

-1,88

39

Australia

1483,72

0

-0,01

40

Egypt

1482,63

0

0

41

Turkey

1482,49

1

7,36

42

Cameroon

1476,44

-4

-8,51

43

Canada

1475,08

0

1,26

44

Ecuador

1469,30

0

5,56

45

Scotland

1464,85

0

1,89

46

Greece

1452,38

3

10,93

47

Mali

1451,25

-1

8,37

48

Paraguay

1448,72

2

8,59

49

Slovakia

1447,91

2

7,92

50

Republic of Ireland

1440,09

-3

-2,39

51

Qatar

1439,94

-3

-2,03

52

Cote d'Ivoire

1437,06

0

1,15

53

Saudi Arabia

1427,87

0

-7,87

54

Burkina Faso

1425,74

1

0,10

55

Romania

1419,79

-1

-8,05

56

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1410,90

1

6,92

57

Finland

1405,49

2

7,08

58

Venezuela

1405,17

-2

0

59

Northern Ireland

1396,77

-1

-2,33

60

Ghana

1393,03

0

-0,44

61

Panama

1388,37

0

-0,90

62

Jamaica

1378,86

0

-3,20

63

North Macedonia

1373,51

1

-1,69

64

Iceland

1371,74

-1

-7,87

65

Slovenia

1361,73

0

-10,75

66

Albania

1361,53

0

-0,28

67

Montenegro

1348,64

0

-5,95

68

South Africa

1343,74

0

-6,81

69

United Arab Emirates

1342,01

0

-4,08

70

Iraq

1338,91

0

0

71

Congo DR

1334,60

1

1,76

72

El Salvador

1333,48

-1

0

73

Israel

1326,55

3

10,20

74

Cape Verde Islands

1326,05

-1

-5,41

75

Oman

1323,03

0

0

76

Bulgaria

1320,36

-2

-4,80

77

Georgia

1307,34

5

10,88

78

China PR

1305,06

0

0

79

Uzbekistan

1304,98

-2

-1,65

80

Gabon

1301,84

-1

0

81

Bolivia

1301,28

0

2,47

82

Honduras

1296,98

-2

-2,71

83

Bahrain

1295,55

2

6,30

84

Guinea

1294,11

-1

-0,78

85

Curacao

1293,35

-1

0

86

Jordan

1279,74

0

0

87

Haiti

1269,07

1

0

88

Uganda

1268,21

2

3,65

89

Zambia

1266,27

-2

-4,53

90

Syria

1265,03

-1

0

91

Benin

1258,71

0

0

92

Luxembourg

1236,50

1

1,14

93

Armenia

1234,01

-1

-8,41

94

Palestine

1233,72

0

0

95

Kyrgyzstan

1232,91

0

0

96

Vietnam

1226,70

1

7,86

97

Equatorial Guinea

1217,68

1

2,35

98

Congo

1214,18

1

-0,91

99

Belarus

1213,74

-3

-12,81

100

Lebanon

1211,71

0

0

101

Trinidad and Tobago

1205,85

0

0

102

Kenya

1202,26

0

0

103

New Zealand

1198,98

0

0,02

104

India

1197,04

0

-1,61

105

Madagascar

1195,01

0

1,23

106

Kosovo

1186,79

0

2,89

107

Mauritania

1186,68

0

4,82

108

Estonia

1184,64

2

7,24

109

Tajikistan

1179,10

0

0

110

Kazakhstan

1173,91

4

7,63

111

Thailand

1170,69

0

0

112

Korea DPR

1169,96

0

0

113

Cyprus

1169,04

-5

-11,48

114

Sierra Leone

1167,13

-1

-2,58

115

Mozambique

1165,22

1

-0,19

116

Namibia

1164,13

1

0

117

Guatemala

1161,70

1

-0,26

118

Guinea-Bissau

1160,71

-3

-4,82

119

Angola

1155,90

1

6,82

120

Niger

1155,02

-1

-0,21

121

Libya

1147,10

0

-1,26

122

Malawi

1144,97

0

0,20

123

Zimbabwe

1138,56

0

0

124

Gambia

1137,47

0

0

125

Latvia

1136,39

4

11,03

126

Togo

1130,43

0

0,21

127

Sudan

1127,69

3

2,78

128

Comoros

1127,44

-1

0

129

Faroe Islands

1124,81

-4

-11,48

130

Azerbaijan

1124,43

-2

-2,74

131

Tanzania

1118,26

0

-3,65

132

Antigua and Barbuda

1117,01

0

0

133

Central African Republic

1116,97

0

0,91

134

Philippines

1115,13

0

0

135

Turkmenistan

1100,47

0

0

136

Rwanda

1092,48

0

-2,56

137

Ethiopia

1090,83

1

2,56

138

Solomon Islands

1090,74

-1

-1,82

139

Lithuania

1077,05

3

2,97

140

St. Kitts and Nevis

1076,91

0

0

141

Nicaragua

1076,79

-2

-2,39

142

Burundi

1076,26

-1

0

143

Suriname

1072,30

0

0,06

144

Eswatini

1070,89

0

0

145

Hong Kong

1067,39

2

9,02

146

Lesotho

1061,40

-1

0

147

Botswana

1058,95

-1

-1,22

148

Malaysia

1057,59

0

0

149

Kuwait

1053,41

0

0

150

Liberia

1051,25

0

0

151

Dominican Republic

1031,86

0

0

152

Yemen

1023,52

1

0

153

Afghanistan

1023,04

1

0

154

Maldives

1022,27

2

4,02

155

Andorra

1020,51

-3

-8,19

156

Indonesia

1019,19

-1

0

157

Chinese Taipei

1017,78

0

0

158

New Caledonia

1003,00

2

3,30

159

Myanmar

1002,89

-1

-9,02

160

Fiji

1000,57

3

7,20

161

Papua New Guinea

998,76

0

1,16

162

Singapore

998,50

-3

-6,25

163

Tahiti

995,11

-1

0

164

Vanuatu

985,71

0

-4,84

165

South Sudan

983,98

0

0

166

Barbados

982,27

0

0

167

Cuba

978,65

0

0

168

Bermuda

977,47

0

0

169

Puerto Rico

974,32

1

0

170

Grenada

969,00

1

0

171

Guyana

968,74

1

0

172

Malta

967,92

-3

-6,76

173

St. Lucia

965,66

0

0

174

Cambodia

958,62

0

4,32

175

Nepal

954,77

1

4,32

176

Belize

950,88

-1

0

177

Moldova

946,54

0

1,58

178

Montserrat

940,78

0

0

179

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

939,97

0

0

180

Mauritius

932,02

0

0

181

Chad

930,22

0

-1,76

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Mongolia

913,55

1

0

184

Dominica

911,51

1

0

185

Bhutan

910,96

1

0

186

Laos

910,51

-3

-4,15

187

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

908,18

0

0

188

American Samoa

900,27

0

0

189

Cook Islands

899,33

0

0

190

Brunei Darussalam

897,23

0

0,13

191

Samoa

894,26

0

0

192

Djibouti

875,05

1

-2,79

193

Bangladesh

874,54

-1

-8,64

194

Liechtenstein

869,57

0

-4,42

195

Pakistan

866,81

0

0

196

Cayman Islands

865,72

0

0

197

Tonga

861,81

0

0

198

Timor-Leste

860,06

1

0

199

Seychelles

859,56

-1

-0,92

200

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

201

Aruba

855,37

1

0

202

Bahamas

854,80

1

0

203

Somalia

854,72

1

0

204

Gibraltar

852,16

-4

-4,39

205

Guam

838,33

0

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

832,00

0

0

207

Sri Lanka

825,25

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

823,97

0

0

209

British Virgin Islands

809,32

0

0

210

Anguilla

790,74

0

0

211

San Marino

762,22

0

-1,60


About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

4 comments:

  1. Thank goodness they came around to some sensible decisions re: AFCON in the Summer, and Brazil/Argentina.

    Hopefully this friendly round will give a little bit of clarity on separating some teams heading into Qatar. It will be interesting for sure to see results of the Group B matches - as currently USA / Wales / Iran are quite close in ratings as to even them out in my WC projection (even going as far as having England be both the projected #1 and #2 team in bracket projections, lol). Betting markets don't seem to be as high on Iran but I think they are being underestimated.

    As always- thanks for your work on this, loving the updates

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Ed, seems to me that you forgot to reflect the friendly games of the expected tournament of four teams in jordan into the probable ranking. The teams are: Iraq, Oman, syria, and Jordan.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's right Tarek, they are mentioned in only one of the two sources that I check regularly, so that's why they are not included. You can also see that in the probable results listing.

      Delete
    2. Thanks Ed. Anyway, this friendly tournament is based on knock out concept contains of two match dates. MD1 will be jordan vs Syria, and Iraq vs Oman. MD2 will be the winners on the championship match, and losers on 3rd place match.

      Delete