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Saturday, October 29, 2022

FIFA ranking: December 2022 probable ranking

Here is the probable December 2022 ranking, to be published on Thursday December 22nd. This ranking will include a lot of preparatory friendlies before the complete World Cup with the final on December 18th. Also the preliminary qualifier in two legs between Brunei Darussalam and Timor-Leste for the South East Asian Championships 2022 is scheduled.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 133 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 149 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Dec.

team

pts Dec.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Brazil

1955,71

0

114,41

2

Argentina

1893,57

1

119,69

3

Belgium

1882,55

-1

65,84

4

France

1817,59

0

57,81

5

England

1794,44

0

65,97

6

Spain

1766,04

1

50,82

7

Netherlands

1757,27

1

62,76

8

Portugal

1736,02

1

59,46

9

Italy

1728,56

-3

2,42

10

Denmark

1703,73

0

37,16

11

Germany

1699,12

0

48,91

12

Uruguay

1672,22

2

33,51

13

Croatia

1666,30

-1

20,66

14

Mexico

1638,14

-1

-6,75

15

Switzerland

1635,67

0

-0,25

16

Colombia

1612,78

1

1,74

17

USA

1602,74

-1

-24,74

18

Serbia

1575,62

3

12,00

19

Peru

1564,30

4

3,29

20

Poland

1559,71

6

11,12

21

Sweden

1555,96

4

2,63

22

Wales

1555,28

-3

-14,54

23

Iran

1551,73

-3

-12,88

24

Ukraine

1536,99

3

0

25

Senegal

1528,73

-7

-55,65

26

Morocco

1526,19

-4

-37,31

27

Japan

1520,03

-3

-39,51

28

Korea Republic

1513,28

0

-17,02

29

Chile

1506,91

0

-2,70

30

Ecuador

1504,11

14

39,72

31

Russia

1496,11

2

0

32

Hungary

1495,83

4

3,63

33

Nigeria

1494,32

-1

-4,15

34

Czech Republic

1493,10

1

0,89

35

Austria

1492,24

-1

-0,71

36

Algeria

1486,90

1

-2,20

37

Egypt

1485,34

2

-1,10

38

Scotland

1479,44

2

-0,09

39

Tunisia

1476,50

-9

-31,04

40

Costa Rica

1475,63

-9

-27,96

41

Norway

1475,06

1

2,02

42

Australia

1460,99

-4

-27,73

43

Turkey

1460,39

2

0,25

44

Canada

1454,36

-3

-20,64

45

Mali

1448,85

1

0

46

Paraguay

1445,06

1

-3,71

47

Cote d'Ivoire

1443,06

1

0

48

Republic of Ireland

1441,07

1

0,88

49

Greece

1436,09

3

-1,51

50

Romania

1435,14

3

0,46

51

Burkina Faso

1432,25

3

0

52

Cameroon

1427,38

-9

-44,06

53

Slovakia

1425,58

2

-0,01

54

Qatar

1411,29

-4

-28,60

55

Venezuela

1404,37

2

0

56

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1403,51

2

0

57

Finland

1403,19

-1

-2,41

58

Northern Ireland

1396,55

1

0

59

Panama

1393,88

1

0,60

60

Saudi Arabia

1392,88

-9

-44,90

61

Slovenia

1386,57

2

2,53

62

Iceland

1383,10

0

-1,31

63

Jamaica

1376,79

1

-2,07

64

North Macedonia

1358,16

1

-0,35

65

Albania

1355,07

1

0,96

66

South Africa

1349,59

1

0

67

Ghana

1348,33

-6

-44,67

68

Iraq

1340,66

0

-2,35

69

Montenegro

1339,14

0

-1,89

70

United Arab Emirates

1338,48

0

0,91

71

Cape Verde Islands

1336,05

0

0

72

Bulgaria

1334,21

0

-1,15

73

Congo DR

1333,92

0

0

74

El Salvador

1330,51

0

0

75

Israel

1320,68

1

4,13

76

Oman

1319,19

-1

-1,10

77

Uzbekistan

1311,81

0

1,83

78

Georgia

1307,34

0

0

79

China PR

1305,06

0

0

80

Honduras

1301,98

0

0

81

Gabon

1301,84

0

0

82

Bolivia

1294,96

0

-1,32

83

Guinea

1290,47

0

0

84

Jordan

1289,18

0

-0,81

85

Curacao

1278,64

1

0

86

Bahrain

1277,78

-1

-2,86

87

Haiti

1269,07

0

0

88

Zambia

1265,15

0

-2,27

89

Uganda

1260,69

0

0

90

Syria

1258,25

0

2,33

91

Benin

1247,47

0

0

92

Luxembourg

1242,85

0

-0,95

93

Palestine

1233,72

1

0

94

Kyrgyzstan

1230,22

1

0

95

Armenia

1229,28

-2

-4,65

96

Vietnam

1226,65

0

0

97

Belarus

1218,73

0

-2,33

98

Equatorial Guinea

1215,66

0

0

99

Lebanon

1210,97

0

-0,74

100

Congo

1208,79

0

0

101

Kenya

1202,26

0

0

102

Madagascar

1200,74

0

0

103

Mauritania

1197,58

0

0

104

Trinidad and Tobago

1195,29

0

0

105

New Zealand

1193,98

0

0

106

India

1192,09

0

0

107

Kosovo

1192,02

0

5,01

108

Tajikistan

1185,70

0

0

109

Estonia

1185,21

0

0,57

110

Cyprus

1182,66

0

-1,16

111

Thailand

1174,92

0

0

112

Korea DPR

1169,96

0

0

113

Mozambique

1165,22

1

0

114

Namibia

1164,13

1

0

115

Kazakhstan

1163,09

-2

-3,54

116

Guinea-Bissau

1160,71

0

0

117

Sierra Leone

1160,31

0

0

118

Guatemala

1158,80

0

2,10

119

Angola

1155,90

0

0

120

Libya

1154,25

0

0

121

Niger

1152,80

0

0

122

Malawi

1144,97

2

0

123

Azerbaijan

1144,33

0

-2,39

124

Faroe Islands

1143,82

-2

-3,35

125

Zimbabwe

1138,56

0

0

126

Gambia

1137,47

0

0

127

Togo

1128,92

0

0

128

Sudan

1127,34

0

0

129

Comoros

1123,18

0

0

130

Tanzania

1119,89

0

0

131

Antigua and Barbuda

1117,01

0

0

132

Central African Republic

1116,97

0

0

133

Latvia

1116,82

1

2,61

134

Philippines

1115,13

-1

0

135

Turkmenistan

1100,47

0

0

136

Solomon Islands

1095,70

0

0

137

Rwanda

1093,66

0

0

138

Ethiopia

1091,19

0

0

139

Suriname

1077,30

0

0

140

St. Kitts and Nevis

1076,91

0

0

141

Burundi

1076,26

0

0

142

Eswatini

1070,89

1

0

143

Nicaragua

1069,08

-1

-2,75

144

Lithuania

1066,31

0

-3,44

145

Hong Kong

1062,39

0

0

146

Malaysia

1062,32

0

0

147

Lesotho

1061,40

0

0

148

Botswana

1056,46

0

0

149

Kuwait

1054,14

0

0,73

150

Liberia

1049,66

0

0

151

Indonesia

1033,90

1

0

152

Andorra

1033,63

-1

-1,57

153

Dominican Republic

1031,86

0

0

154

Maldives

1026,09

0

0

155

Yemen

1023,52

0

0

156

Afghanistan

1023,04

0

0

157

Chinese Taipei

1017,78

0

0

158

Myanmar

1007,89

0

0

159

Papua New Guinea

1007,46

0

0

160

Singapore

1003,50

0

0

161

New Caledonia

995,58

0

0

162

Tahiti

995,11

0

0

163

Fiji

989,43

0

0

164

Vanuatu

985,62

0

0

165

South Sudan

983,98

0

0

166

Barbados

982,27

0

0

167

Cuba

978,65

0

0

168

Bermuda

977,47

1

0

169

Malta

976,46

-1

-1,46

170

Puerto Rico

974,32

0

0

171

St. Lucia

968,79

1

3,13

172

Guyana

968,74

-1

0

173

Grenada

963,72

0

0

174

Moldova

961,38

0

0,15

175

Nepal

954,86

0

0

176

Belize

950,88

0

0

177

Cambodia

948,62

0

0

178

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

945,25

0

0

179

Montserrat

940,78

0

0

180

Mauritius

932,02

0

0

181

Chad

930,22

0

0

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Mongolia

913,55

0

0

184

Dominica

911,51

0

0

185

Bhutan

910,96

0

0

186

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

908,18

0

0

187

Laos

905,51

0

0

188

Brunei Darussalam

903,02

2

4,61

189

American Samoa

900,27

-1

0

190

Cook Islands

899,33

-1

0

191

Samoa

894,26

0

0

192

Bangladesh

884,45

0

0

193

Djibouti

875,05

0

0

194

Pakistan

866,81

0

0

195

Cayman Islands

865,72

0

0

196

Tonga

861,81

1

0

197

Liechtenstein

859,84

-1

-2,55

198

Seychelles

859,56

1

0

199

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

200

Gibraltar

855,54

4

3,38

201

Timor-Leste

855,45

-3

-4,61

202

Aruba

855,37

-1

0

203

Bahamas

854,80

-1

0

204

Somalia

854,72

-1

0

205

Guam

838,33

0

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

832,00

0

0

207

Sri Lanka

825,25

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

823,97

0

0

209

British Virgin Islands

809,32

0

0

210

Anguilla

790,74

0

0

211

San Marino

759,09

0

-3,13



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

10 comments:

  1. Hi, Ed. I'm just curious, if there any new FIFA members in the future, how many would be their initial points?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good question. Short answer: I don't know. We will have to find out what FIFA will do when the occasion arises.

    With the start of the new ranking calculation in June 2018 each then existing team got initial points assigned, based on the May 2018 FIFA ranking, the last ranking calculated with the old method. Kosovo and Gibraltar were the most recently added teams but that was already in 2016.
    For a completely new team, I guess initial points will be estimated and then the hope is that by playing sufficient matches the rating of the new team will converge rather rapidly to their 'real' strength, just like the elo-rating. Problem in this could be the high 'involatility' of the FIFA-rating calculation compared to the elo-rating calculation, because FIFA applies lower match-weights for the friendly-typed matches and also disregards goal-difference in a match.

    The estimation of the initial points will probably follow logical rules, mostly based on the region where the new country originates: a new team like f.i. Northern Mariana Islands will have a low initial rating (800 ?) looking at the current FIFA-ratings of neighboring Pacific island states; a completely new team from Europe (I'm just dropping a name here: Catalunya) could be rated higher initially (1200 or 1300 ?).

    ReplyDelete
  3. why did u adopt 5 points in the calculation of international football matches

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I assume you refer to the I-factor of 5 for friendly matches in November.
      That's because there is no official FIFA International Match window this month. So friendlies will not have 10 but only 5 as the I-factor.

      Delete
    2. But FIFA announced that the FIFA Day will start from November 14.

      Therefore, the match that will be played on the 14th and after is counted in the FIFA agenda and awarded ten points in the classification

      Delete
    3. In the current FIFA's Men’s International Match Calendar 2020-2024 there is no November 2022 window designated.
      In the calendar only 14 November is named as the release date of players for the World Cup. It's not the same as a complete match window. For instance there's no end date mentioned of the window.
      But be my guest and calculate with I=10. We'll see in December who was right.

      Delete
  4. Hi Ed, For the matches more than 6 substitution occurred for one of the teams: will be not included in the fifa ranking OR can be included in the fifa ranking as non-international match with weight 5??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Tarek, FIFA excludes any match with more than 6 substitutions from the ranking calculation. At least, that was their policy for the last decade.
      Another requirement for a match to be included was a FIFA-approved referee and that the match should follow the IFAB Laws of the Game (so at least consists of 2x45 minutes and much more). But we have seen already a few examples where those requirements were not met but the match was included anyway.
      So in the end, inclusion or exclusion of a match is always something that can only be determined definitely when the ranking is published.

      Delete
    2. Yes, you are right. Will wait and see. Thanks a lot Ed. Have a nice weekend.

      Delete