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Thursday, January 5, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking

Yes, you read it correctly, FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February, even if there are three tournaments played to a finish this January:


  • the South-East Asian Championship 2023 started already in December with the group stage. Tomorrow the semi-finals start. Both semi-finals and final are played over home-and-away legs;
  • the Gulf Cup 2023 starts tomorrow in Iraq;
  • the African Nations Championship 2023 starts next week in Algeria. For African NT-teams consisting of players playing in domestic leagues only. Matches in this tournament will count for the FIFA ranking, not for the elo rating though.

In the international match window in March the following matches are scheduled:

  • match days 3 and 4 in qualification for the African Nations Cup 2024;
  • match days 1 and 2 in qualification for the EURO 2024;
  • the group stage of the CONCACAF Nations League 2023 is played to a conclusion;
  • some friendlies.


Here is the probable April 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 6th. 

This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 202 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 213 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Apr.

team

pts Apr.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Brazil

1840,77

0

0

2

France

1838,45

1

15,06

3

Argentina

1838,38

-1

0

4

Belgium

1788,77

0

7,47

5

England

1767,92

0

-6,27

6

Croatia

1742,28

1

14,66

7

Italy

1738,54

1

14,98

8

Netherlands

1731,23

-2

-9,69

9

Spain

1707,85

1

15,14

10

Portugal

1707,07

-1

4,53

11

Morocco

1678,09

0

5,74

12

Switzerland

1664,44

0

9,42

13

USA

1656,29

0

3,55

14

Germany

1646,91

0

0

15

Mexico

1641,42

0

5,64

16

Uruguay

1627,45

0

0

17

Denmark

1619,68

1

11,57

18

Senegal

1615,93

1

11,95

19

Colombia

1612,97

-2

0,19

20

Japan

1593,08

0

0

21

Peru

1564,30

0

0

22

Sweden

1556,30

1

-2,15

23

Poland

1553,76

-1

-6,07

24

Iran

1551,73

0

0

25

Korea Republic

1539,49

0

0

26

Serbia

1538,57

3

12,11

27

Tunisia

1535,75

3

9,55

28

Australia

1533,97

-1

0

29

Ukraine

1529,55

-3

-7,44

30

Wales

1526,62

-2

-3,66

31

Cameroon

1510,92

2

11,62

32

Austria

1508,12

2

10,88

33

Czech Republic

1507,54

5

16,93

34

Chile

1506,91

-3

0

35

Costa Rica

1506,14

-3

5,96

36

Algeria

1505,76

4

19,04

37

Nigeria

1504,96

-2

10,64

38

Hungary

1504,74

-2

11,41

39

Egypt

1500,67

0

10,33

40

Russia

1491,26

-3

0

41

Ecuador

1477,32

0

0

42

Scotland

1475,52

0

-1,42

43

Turkey

1465,94

1

0,56

44

Norway

1463,73

-1

-11,32

45

Mali

1461,27

0

12,22

46

Cote d'Ivoire

1452,33

1

10,84

47

Burkina Faso

1446,41

3

11,60

48

Paraguay

1445,06

-2

0

49

Romania

1444,58

3

11,94

50

Canada

1442,59

3

10,95

51

Saudi Arabia

1442,36

-2

4,23

52

Republic of Ireland

1436,31

-4

-2,28

53

Greece

1436,06

-2

2,47

54

Slovakia

1433,48

0

7,90

55

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1415,90

2

12,39

56

Ghana

1415,87

2

15,85

57

Venezuela

1407,49

-2

1,39

58

Finland

1399,96

-2

-5,75

59

Qatar

1399,03

1

5,47

60

Northern Ireland

1398,61

-1

2,06

61

Slovenia

1398,47

1

9,41

62

Panama

1385,74

-1

-5,96

63

Jamaica

1375,23

1

-4,06

64

Iceland

1371,43

-1

-8,92

65

South Africa

1362,14

2

11,78

66

North Macedonia

1360,05

-1

4,77

67

Iraq

1350,51

1

8,12

68

Cape Verde Islands

1349,08

4

13,03

69

Albania

1344,95

-3

-8,08

70

Bulgaria

1340,19

1

3,48

71

United Arab Emirates

1336,64

-1

-1,84

72

Congo DR

1336,07

1

2,15

73

El Salvador

1323,52

1

-3,34

74

Oman

1322,37

1

1,13

75

Gabon

1321,82

4

16,35

76

Israel

1319,71

0

4,04

77

Montenegro

1318,75

-8

-20,40

78

Uzbekistan

1312,64

-1

0

79

Georgia

1309,74

-1

3,76

80

China PR

1305,06

0

0

81

Honduras

1295,20

0

-5,58

82

Bolivia

1294,96

0

0

83

Guinea

1293,52

0

3,05

84

Jordan

1289,99

0

0

85

Zambia

1280,52

3

15,37

86

Bahrain

1280,07

-1

-0,20

87

Haiti

1276,12

0

7,05

88

Curacao

1273,28

-2

-5,36

89

Uganda

1263,93

0

3,24

90

Benin

1252,41

1

4,94

91

Syria

1247,14

-1

-4,32

92

Vietnam

1234,69

4

6,06

93

Palestine

1233,72

0

0

94

Luxembourg

1233,43

-2

-11,92

95

Kyrgyzstan

1232,91

-1

0

96

Armenia

1229,08

-1

-2,68

97

Congo

1221,88

2

13,09

98

Equatorial Guinea

1220,28

0

4,62

99

Belarus

1210,17

-2

-11,51

100

Lebanon

1206,58

0

-1,89

101

Madagascar

1206,26

1

5,52

102

Trinidad and Tobago

1204,28

2

8,99

103

Kenya

1202,26

-2

0

104

New Zealand

1193,98

1

0

105

India

1192,09

1

0

106

Mauritania

1190,23

-3

-7,35

107

Tajikistan

1187,02

1

0

108

Kosovo

1186,54

-1

-0,49

109

Thailand

1178,50

2

5,10

110

Estonia

1175,19

-1

-11,08

111

Cyprus

1174,45

-1

-10,72

112

Sierra Leone

1173,81

4

13,50

113

Korea DPR

1169,96

-1

0

114

Guatemala

1160,86

5

3,30

115

Mozambique

1154,52

-1

-9,05

116

Namibia

1153,52

-3

-10,61

117

Kazakhstan

1152,05

-2

-11,04

118

Guinea-Bissau

1148,13

0

-10,64

119

Libya

1145,22

1

-11,52

120

Angola

1143,97

-3

-14,84

121

Azerbaijan

1142,22

0

-9,60

122

Faroe Islands

1142,00

1

-4,31

123

Zimbabwe

1138,56

2

0

124

Niger

1137,52

-2

-11,01

125

Malawi

1134,64

-1

-10,33

126

Gambia

1126,18

0

-11,39

127

Antigua and Barbuda

1122,51

4

5,50

128

Togo

1117,31

-1

-11,61

129

Tanzania

1114,29

1

-5,60

130

Comoros

1111,98

-1

-11,20

131

Latvia

1110,38

2

-6,58

132

Sudan

1109,49

-4

-17,85

133

Central African Republic

1108,82

-1

-8,15

134

Philippines

1106,38

0

-6,77

135

Turkmenistan

1100,47

0

0

136

Solomon Islands

1095,70

0

0

137

Rwanda

1088,72

0

-4,94

138

Ethiopia

1087,90

0

-3,29

139

St. Kitts and Nevis

1081,40

1

4,49

140

Suriname

1075,73

-1

-1,57

141

Burundi

1075,27

0

0

142

Nicaragua

1071,66

0

-0,08

143

Malaysia

1069,52

2

2,92

144

Lithuania

1065,44

0

-3,68

145

Hong Kong

1062,39

1

0

146

Eswatini

1057,86

-3

-13,03

147

Kuwait

1051,59

1

-5,05

148

Botswana

1049,81

1

-4,62

149

Lesotho

1046,02

-2

-15,38

150

Indonesia

1040,58

1

6,68

151

Dominican Republic

1038,13

1

6,27

152

Liberia

1037,87

-2

-11,79

153

Afghanistan

1023,04

2

0

154

Maldives

1021,18

2

0

155

Chinese Taipei

1021,02

2

0

156

Yemen

1020,36

-2

-3,16

157

Andorra

1017,74

-4

-13,39

158

Singapore

1009,36

2

3,26

159

Papua New Guinea

1007,46

-1

0

160

Myanmar

999,52

-1

-6,64

161

New Caledonia

995,58

0

0

162

Tahiti

995,11

0

0

163

Fiji

989,43

0

0

164

Cuba

986,20

4

7,55

165

Vanuatu

985,62

-1

0

166

Puerto Rico

985,41

4

11,09

167

Bermuda

981,11

2

3,64

168

St. Lucia

976,48

4

11,75

169

Malta

972,91

-2

-6,04

170

South Sudan

969,38

-5

-14,60

171

Barbados

969,22

-5

-13,05

172

Guyana

968,53

-1

-0,21

173

Grenada

962,72

0

-1,00

174

Moldova

960,41

0

1,53

175

Nepal

956,94

0

0

176

Cambodia

948,59

1

1,93

177

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

945,78

1

0,53

178

Belize

939,91

-2

-10,97

179

Mauritius

932,02

1

0

180

Montserrat

930,31

-1

-10,47

181

Chad

930,22

0

0

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Mongolia

913,55

0

0

184

Bhutan

910,96

1

0

185

Dominica

904,84

-1

-6,67

186

Laos

901,13

1

-4,38

187

American Samoa

900,27

1

0

188

Cook Islands

899,33

1

0

189

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

894,67

-3

-13,51

190

Samoa

894,26

1

0

191

Brunei Darussalam

891,12

-1

-6,90

192

Bangladesh

884,45

0

0

193

Djibouti

875,05

0

0

194

Pakistan

864,72

1

0

195

Tonga

861,81

1

0

196

Timor-Leste

860,45

1

0

197

Cayman Islands

859,83

-3

-5,89

198

Seychelles

859,56

1

0

199

Liechtenstein

855,79

-1

-4,05

200

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

201

Gibraltar

854,72

-1

-3,32

201

Somalia

854,72

3

0

203

Aruba

850,88

-1

-4,49

204

Bahamas

845,36

-1

-9,44

205

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,39

1

7,39

206

Guam

838,33

-1

0

207

Sri Lanka

825,25

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

816,59

0

-7,38

209

British Virgin Islands

804,11

0

-5,21

210

Anguilla

785,66

0

-5,08

211

San Marino

759,12

0

-4,03


About me:

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14 comments:

  1. Does anyone know if the 2026 World Cup qualifying draw is still scheduled for June 2023? If so, will all confederations be drawn? Even if, for example, Europe and Africa don't get started until 2025.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I doubt all the drawings will happen together - each confederation typically does their own drawing which will happen in their own time. Asia, for example, will likely have to draw sooner than that as their qualification takes a lot of time. Just my guess, though.

      Delete
  2. Hi there, Morocco threw a hissy fit and refused to take part in CHAN 2022 (some regional issues with neighboring Algeria, but to my knowledge they did not prevent them from participating as they claim) now all their group games are forfeit and scored as 0 - 3. how would that affect Morocco's FIFA ranking?
    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  3. Well, the matches for the CHAN will count for the FIFA ranking. Of my sources, elo doesn't include them at all and Soccerway mentions them and they indeed give them as 0-3 forfeits. Wikipedia gives them as just cancelled.
    It remains to be seen what line of reasoning FIFA will follow. When they do include the forfeits, it will cost Morocco some 12,2 points. They currently have on spot 11 a 17 point advantage over Switzerland.

    ReplyDelete
  4. thats not fair to take points of Morocco. they didnt play!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Indeed, but several earlier examples of matches that were not played but instead were forfeited, were still included by FIFA in their ranking calculation. Most recent one that comes to mind is the CONCACAF Nations League 2023 group match between Bermuda and Montserrat June 14th last year, when the latter didn't show up.
      So Morocco wouldn't be the first team to suffer unfairly from this strange custom.

      Delete
  5. I learned that UEFA has changed the rules of UNL and qualification for the WC2026.
    There will be 12 groups (6 of 4 teams, 6 of 5 teams). Qualifiers will begin in March for groups of 5 teams, when 28 more teams will play in the UNL playoffs.
    There will be a UNL Final 4 in June and I understand that these 4 teams must be in a four-team group in the WC qualifiers. Just like the 4 losers from the quarterfinals.
    This means that the winners and runners-up of League A (8 teams in total) must be in groups of four teams.
    And what will happen when all these 8 teams will be in one, the highest pot No. 1. But there will be 6 four-team groups or even less (if UEFA will allow RUS).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree. It sounds like they haven't really thought this all through properly. That's the problem when you have groups of 4 & 5 in that one needs only 6 matchdays and the other 10. Far better to either stick with 10 groups of 5 & 6, or simply have pre-qualifying play-offs to eliminate the weakest teams and then draw the remaining 48 teams into 12 groups of 4.

      Delete
    2. I don't believe it necessitates that the teams in the UNL Playoffs be in groups of 4 (this wouldn't really be possible anyway, by pots, as these are likely to be mostly pot A teams). If they are in groups of 5 then their byes will just line up with the March window of qualifiers. Remember there are 4 matchdays in the June window, so you can play UNL semis/finals as well as 2 WC qualifier match days.

      Delete
    3. on the uefa website i saw that there are 2 match days in june.

      Delete
    4. Might simply be a case of the groups being drawn with "Quarterfinal winner/loser" similar to how the World Cup draw had tentative slots for the winner of Wales v Ukraine.
      So, for example, the draw would place a Spain/Croatia quarterfinal slot into a 4-team group and a 5-team group so the winner and loser would automatically complete the necessary groups once the results were determined.
      Hopefully that made sense.

      Delete
    5. Yeah that would make sense. Would lead to some potentially interesting gamesmanship... as a team might find it advantageous to lose a UNL quarterfinals game if it gets them into a more advantageous qualifying group

      Delete
    6. One more condition. In each five-team group there can be only one participant of the March play-offs (except the participants of the final 4). The draw will be like solving a difficult mathematical problem.

      Delete
  6. If uefa doesn't want to have play-offs then the best solution is 16 groups. 9 groups of 3 teams and 7 groups of 4 teams (with RUS) or 10x3 and 6x4 (without RUS). Both need 6 matchdays.

    ReplyDelete