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Wednesday, February 8, 2023

FIFA ranking: April 2023 probable ranking (II)

In the month of January three tournaments were played to a finish: the South-East Asian Championship 2023, the Gulf Cup 2023 in Iraq and the African Nations Championship in Algeria. FIFA will publish the next ranking only after the March window. Contrary to previous years there won't be an official ranking in the first week of February. Reason enough to publish an intermediate preview of the April ranking.


In the international match window in March the following matches are scheduled:

- match days 3 and 4 in qualification for the African Nations Cup 2024;

- match days 1 and 2 in qualification for the EURO 2024;

- the group stage of the CONCACAF Nations League 2023 is played to a conclusion;

- some friendlies.


Here is the probable April 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday April 6th.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 209 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 225 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which matches, both played and scheduled, are currently included.


pos Apr.

team

pts Apr.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Brazil

1840,77

0

0

2

France

1838,45

1

15,06

3

Argentina

1838,38

-1

0

4

Belgium

1770,14

0

-11,16

5

England

1767,92

0

-6,27

6

Croatia

1742,28

1

14,66

7

Italy

1738,54

1

14,98

8

Netherlands

1731,23

-2

-9,69

9

Spain

1707,85

1

15,14

10

Portugal

1707,07

-1

4,53

11

Morocco

1671,29

0

-1,06

12

Switzerland

1664,44

0

9,42

13

Germany

1657,31

1

10,40

14

USA

1653,83

-1

1,09

15

Mexico

1641,42

0

5,64

16

Uruguay

1627,45

0

0

17

Denmark

1619,53

1

11,42

18

Senegal

1613,21

1

9,23

19

Colombia

1612,07

-2

-0,71

20

Japan

1593,26

0

0,18

21

Sweden

1571,03

2

12,58

22

Peru

1561,14

-1

-3,16

23

Poland

1553,76

-1

-6,07

24

Iran

1551,73

0

0

25

Serbia

1540,99

4

14,53

26

Korea Republic

1540,19

-1

0,70

27

Tunisia

1535,76

3

9,56

28

Australia

1533,97

-1

0

29

Ukraine

1529,55

-3

-7,44

30

Wales

1526,62

-2

-3,66

31

Austria

1508,24

3

11,00

32

Czech Republic

1507,54

6

16,93

33

Cameroon

1507,30

0

8,00

34

Chile

1506,91

-3

0

35

Costa Rica

1506,16

-3

5,98

36

Nigeria

1504,96

-1

10,64

37

Hungary

1504,79

-1

11,46

38

Algeria

1504,19

2

17,47

39

Egypt

1500,67

0

10,33

40

Russia

1491,26

-3

0

41

Ecuador

1477,32

0

0

42

Scotland

1475,52

0

-1,42

43

Turkey

1465,94

1

0,56

44

Norway

1463,73

-1

-11,32

45

Mali

1455,75

0

6,70

46

Cote d'Ivoire

1449,95

1

8,46

47

Burkina Faso

1446,41

3

11,60

48

Paraguay

1445,06

-2

0

49

Romania

1444,58

3

11,94

50

Canada

1442,59

3

10,95

51

Greece

1438,01

0

4,42

52

Republic of Ireland

1436,31

-4

-2,28

53

Slovakia

1433,48

1

7,90

54

Saudi Arabia

1433,01

-5

-5,12

55

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1415,84

2

12,33

56

Ghana

1408,51

2

8,49

57

Venezuela

1406,10

-2

0

58

Slovenia

1398,47

4

9,41

59

Northern Ireland

1398,43

0

1,88

60

Finland

1392,81

-4

-12,90

61

Qatar

1388,62

-1

-4,94

62

Panama

1387,16

-1

-4,54

63

Jamaica

1375,23

1

-4,06

64

Iceland

1369,03

-1

-11,32

65

North Macedonia

1363,07

0

7,79

66

South Africa

1362,14

1

11,78

67

Iraq

1352,75

1

10,36

68

Cape Verde Islands

1349,08

4

13,03

69

Albania

1344,95

-3

-8,08

70

Bulgaria

1340,19

1

3,48

71

Congo DR

1338,61

2

4,69

72

United Arab Emirates

1334,12

-2

-4,36

73

Oman

1329,72

2

8,48

74

El Salvador

1323,25

0

-3,61

75

Gabon

1321,74

4

16,27

76

Israel

1319,71

0

4,04

77

Montenegro

1318,80

-8

-20,35

78

Uzbekistan

1312,64

-1

0

79

Georgia

1309,74

-1

3,76

80

Honduras

1295,45

1

-5,33

81

Bolivia

1294,96

1

0

82

Guinea

1293,42

1

2,95

83

China PR

1293,07

-3

-11,99

84

Jordan

1289,99

0

0

85

Bahrain

1282,77

0

2,50

86

Zambia

1280,52

2

15,37

87

Haiti

1276,12

0

7,05

88

Curacao

1273,28

-2

-5,36

89

Uganda

1268,68

0

7,99

90

Benin

1252,41

1

4,94

91

Syria

1247,14

-1

-4,32

92

Palestine

1233,72

1

0

93

Luxembourg

1233,43

-1

-11,92

94

Kyrgyzstan

1232,91

0

0

95

Vietnam

1229,69

1

1,06

96

Armenia

1229,08

-1

-2,68

97

Congo

1221,88

2

13,09

98

Equatorial Guinea

1220,28

0

4,62

99

Madagascar

1217,55

3

16,81

100

Belarus

1210,17

-3

-11,51

101

Lebanon

1206,58

-1

-1,89

102

New Zealand

1205,97

3

11,99

103

Trinidad and Tobago

1204,28

1

8,99

104

Kenya

1202,26

-3

0

105

Mauritania

1194,28

-2

-3,30

106

India

1192,09

0

0

107

Tajikistan

1187,02

1

0

108

Kosovo

1186,54

-1

-0,49

109

Estonia

1182,50

0

-3,77

110

Thailand

1179,77

1

6,37

111

Cyprus

1174,45

-1

-10,72

112

Sierra Leone

1173,81

4

13,50

113

Korea DPR

1169,96

-1

0

114

Guatemala

1160,80

5

3,24

115

Mozambique

1154,64

-1

-8,93

116

Namibia

1153,40

-3

-10,73

117

Kazakhstan

1152,05

-2

-11,04

118

Guinea-Bissau

1148,13

0

-10,64

119

Angola

1146,07

-2

-12,74

120

Libya

1145,82

0

-10,92

121

Niger

1142,57

1

-5,96

122

Azerbaijan

1142,42

-1

-9,40

123

Faroe Islands

1138,98

0

-7,33

124

Zimbabwe

1138,56

1

0

125

Malawi

1134,64

-1

-10,33

126

Gambia

1125,99

0

-11,58

127

Antigua and Barbuda

1122,51

4

5,50

128

Togo

1117,31

-1

-11,61

129

Tanzania

1114,50

1

-5,39

130

Comoros

1111,89

-1

-11,29

131

Latvia

1110,38

2

-6,58

132

Central African Republic

1109,36

0

-7,61

133

Sudan

1107,62

-5

-19,72

134

Philippines

1106,38

0

-6,77

135

Turkmenistan

1100,47

0

0

136

Solomon Islands

1095,70

0

0

137

Rwanda

1088,72

0

-4,94

138

Ethiopia

1085,49

0

-5,70

139

St. Kitts and Nevis

1081,40

1

4,49

140

Suriname

1075,73

-1

-1,57

141

Burundi

1075,27

0

0

142

Malaysia

1072,00

3

5,40

143

Nicaragua

1071,66

-1

-0,08

144

Lithuania

1063,53

0

-5,59

145

Hong Kong

1062,39

1

0

146

Kuwait

1059,09

2

2,45

147

Eswatini

1057,86

-4

-13,03

148

Botswana

1049,81

1

-4,62

149

Lesotho

1046,02

-2

-15,38

150

Indonesia

1040,58

1

6,68

151

Dominican Republic

1038,13

1

6,27

152

Liberia

1037,87

-2

-11,79

153

Afghanistan

1023,04

2

0

154

Maldives

1021,18

2

0

155

Chinese Taipei

1021,02

2

0

156

Yemen

1020,37

-2

-3,15

157

Andorra

1017,74

-4

-13,39

158

Singapore

1009,36

2

3,26

159

Papua New Guinea

1007,46

-1

0

160

Myanmar

999,52

-1

-6,64

161

New Caledonia

995,58

0

0

162

Tahiti

995,11

0

0

163

Fiji

989,43

0

0

164

Cuba

986,20

4

7,55

165

Vanuatu

985,62

-1

0

166

Puerto Rico

985,41

4

11,09

167

Bermuda

981,11

2

3,64

168

St. Lucia

976,48

4

11,75

169

Malta

972,91

-2

-6,04

170

South Sudan

969,38

-5

-14,60

171

Barbados

969,22

-5

-13,05

172

Guyana

968,53

-1

-0,21

173

Grenada

962,71

0

-1,01

174

Moldova

960,41

0

1,53

175

Nepal

956,94

0

0

176

Cambodia

948,59

1

1,93

177

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

945,78

1

0,53

178

Belize

939,91

-2

-10,97

179

Mauritius

932,02

1

0

180

Montserrat

930,31

-1

-10,47

181

Chad

930,22

0

0

182

Macau

922,10

0

0

183

Mongolia

913,55

0

0

184

Bhutan

910,96

1

0

185

Dominica

904,84

-1

-6,67

186

Laos

901,13

1

-4,38

187

American Samoa

900,27

1

0

188

Cook Islands

899,33

1

0

189

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

894,67

-3

-13,51

190

Samoa

894,26

1

0

191

Brunei Darussalam

891,12

-1

-6,90

192

Bangladesh

884,45

0

0

193

Djibouti

875,05

0

0

194

Pakistan

864,72

1

0

195

Tonga

861,81

1

0

196

Timor-Leste

860,45

1

0

197

Cayman Islands

859,83

-3

-5,89

198

Seychelles

859,56

1

0

199

Liechtenstein

855,77

-1

-4,07

200

Eritrea

855,56

1

0

201

Gibraltar

854,72

-1

-3,32

201

Somalia

854,72

3

0

203

Aruba

850,88

-1

-4,49

204

Bahamas

845,36

-1

-9,44

205

Turks and Caicos Islands

839,39

1

7,39

206

Guam

838,33

-1

0

207

Sri Lanka

825,25

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

816,59

0

-7,38

209

British Virgin Islands

804,11

0

-5,21

210

Anguilla

785,66

0

-5,08

211

San Marino

759,12

0

-4,03



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

12 comments:

  1. Morocco has scheduled friendly games against Brazil and Peru - how many points could they gain if they win both

    ReplyDelete
  2. 25/3 MAR-BRA W: 6,56; D: 1,56; L: -3,44
    28/3 MAR-PER W: 3,94; D: -1,06; L: -6,06

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hello. Can you explain CONCACAF national teams ranking formula?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi George, the CONCACAF ranking is based on the same sort of formula as the elo-rating. It determines a win probability based on difference in strengths between both teams in a match and compares that win-probability with the realised match result (multiplied with a match type factor) to determine the number of points that each team wins or loses because of the match result.

    It's a pity that all documentation about this system that I could find is so vague and without formulas that I can't calculate and maintain it real-time.

    ReplyDelete
  5. How can I contact previous host of this blog, Eduard Ranghiuc?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi George, send me an e-mail using the address in my profile.,,

      Delete
  6. India scheduled to play 2 friendly matches but here in this list it's missing...

    ReplyDelete
  7. Just like other friendlies (for Argentina and Brazil to name a few) that weren't published or confirmed at the time this predicted ranking was established (February 8th).

    ReplyDelete
  8. Please make a Probable Rankings of April further based on results till March

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I will give a final preview of the April ranking after the conclusion of this International Match window on Wednesday.

      Delete
  9. Mexico lose an additional two points for fielding an ineligible player in a friendly against Guatemala in April 2022. The sanction of Mexico losing the game was announced in January and the points are deducted in this publication. Mexico had drawn the game and now it counts as a loss.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Rodrigo, thanks for this info. That was the one thing I couldn't solve comparing the published ranking with my calculations. Now I can finalize my April ranking.

      Delete