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Monday, April 10, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10000 simulations (April 2023)

In March the first two match days of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including the UNL Final Four and currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.


First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Spain

55,83

33,81

7,89

2,41

0,06

1,57

Scotland

34,47

38,87

19,42

7,15

0,09

2,00

Norway

6,76

19,56

47,22

24,40

2,06

2,95

Georgia

2,92

7,68

23,76

56,81

8,83

3,61

Cyprus

0,02

0,08

1,71

9,23

88,96

4,87

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

France

87,69

11,73

0,58

0,00

0,00

1,13

Netherlands

11,64

79,07

8,09

1,20

0,00

1,99

Greece

0,62

5,36

52,94

41,07

0,01

3,34

Republic of Ireland

0,05

3,84

38,39

57,70

0,02

3,54

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,03

99,97

5,00

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

England

86,50

12,10

1,34

0,06

0,00

1,15

Italy

9,81

58,98

28,07

3,14

0,00

2,25

Ukraine

3,46

26,75

57,71

11,86

0,22

2,79

North Macedonia

0,23

2,17

12,77

77,18

7,65

3,90

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,11

7,76

92,13

4,92

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Croatia

77,45

19,99

2,44

0,12

0,00

1,25

Wales

17,67

44,02

33,92

4,04

0,35

2,25

Turkey

4,80

34,73

54,31

5,49

0,67

2,63

Armenia

0,05

0,72

5,58

54,32

39,33

4,32

Latvia

0,03

0,54

3,75

36,03

59,65

4,55

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Czech Republic

48,66

41,88

9,19

0,26

0,01

1,61

Poland

46,98

44,81

7,85

0,34

0,02

1,62

Albania

4,25

12,39

64,65

14,17

4,54

3,02

Faroe Islands

0,09

0,75

12,67

53,52

32,97

4,19

Moldova

0,02

0,17

5,64

31,71

62,46

4,56

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Belgium

87,34

11,30

1,29

0,07

0,00

1,14

Austria

10,15

49,79

35,44

4,41

0,21

2,35

Sweden

2,42

37,16

50,79

8,57

1,06

2,69

Estonia

0,06

1,48

8,45

48,18

41,83

4,30

Azerbaijan

0,03

0,27

4,03

38,77

56,90

4,52

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Serbia

61,06

35,86

2,80

0,28

0,00

1,42

Hungary

37,81

52,17

9,30

0,68

0,04

1,73

Montenegro

0,99

10,77

68,97

16,58

2,69

3,09

Bulgaria

0,13

1,04

14,81

62,14

21,88

4,05

Lithuania

0,01

0,16

4,12

20,32

75,39

4,71

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Denmark

52,50

30,09

14,18

2,83

0,40

0,00

1,69

Slovenia

25,71

30,70

30,19

10,87

2,53

0,00

2,34

Finland

20,35

33,00

33,18

10,42

3,05

0,00

2,43

Northern Ireland

0,93

3,97

12,48

39,88

42,73

0,01

4,20

Kazakhstan

0,51

2,24

9,97

36,00

51,23

0,05

4,35

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,06

99,94

6,00

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Switzerland

89,77

9,37

0,73

0,13

0,00

0,00

1,11

Romania

8,30

53,62

24,81

11,02

2,22

0,03

2,45

Israel

1,22

25,88

38,96

23,72

9,35

0,87

3,17

Kosovo

0,67

8,41

22,75

37,00

26,76

4,41

3,94

Belarus

0,04

2,70

12,43

25,57

47,93

11,33

4,53

Andorra

0,00

0,02

0,32

2,56

13,74

83,36

5,80

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Portugal

97,23

2,38

0,35

0,04

0,00

0,00

1,03

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1,14

37,66

31,97

20,71

8,49

0,03

2,98

Slovakia

1,21

35,71

30,63

22,46

9,96

0,03

3,04

Iceland

0,40

16,01

22,02

31,12

30,40

0,05

3,75

Luxembourg

0,02

8,24

15,03

25,66

50,39

0,66

4,20

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,76

99,23

5,99



The probabilities for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2024, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2024 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. UNL group winners are indicated with 'gw' and the league letter.
In the last column you can find the difference in Qtot (in %-points) compared to the simulation results before the groups started.


team - grp

Qdirect

po-semi

po-final

po-win

Qtot

diff

Germany (host)

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Portugal - J

99,61

0,39

0,33

0,22

99,83

0,35

France - B

99,42

0,58

0,53

0,41

99,83

1,85

England - C

98,60

1,38

1,16

0,84

99,44

8,43

Switzerland - I

99,14

0,85

0,67

0,29

99,43

1,90

Belgium - F

98,64

1,36

1,14

0,71

99,35

3,77

Croatia - D (gw-A)

97,44

2,56

2,48

1,46

98,90

1,71

Serbia - G (gw-B)

96,92

3,08

2,47

1,67

98,59

4,94

Netherlands - B (gw-A)

90,71

9,29

8,92

6,60

97,31

-0,58

Spain - A (gw-A)

89,64

10,36

9,76

6,02

95,66

-1,08

Poland - E

91,79

8,20

5,83

2,41

94,20

1,49

Hungary - G

89,98

10,01

7,62

3,42

93,40

2,43

Czech Republic - E

90,54

9,32

5,86

2,71

93,25

2,77

Italy - C (gw-A)

68,79

31,21

29,62

21,03

89,82

-3,48

Denmark - H

82,59

17,41

14,57

6,85

89,44

-5,23

Scotland - A (gw-B)

73,34

26,66

19,58

13,08

86,42

19,30

Austria - F

59,94

39,88

27,79

11,21

71,15

6,94

Wales - D

61,69

37,33

19,27

7,74

69,43

10,64

Ukraine - C

30,21

69,33

51,16

34,68

64,89

-0,51

Finland - H

53,35

46,63

22,37

9,34

62,69

3,65

Romania - I

61,92

0,03

0,02

0,01

61,93

21,47

Slovenia - H

56,41

33,95

12,08

4,68

61,09

13,80

Turkey - D (gw-C)

39,53

60,47

20,97

12,89

52,42

-8,62

Greece - B (gw-C)

5,98

94,02

78,87

45,84

51,82

-5,35

Bosnia-Herzegovina - J (gw-B)

38,80

61,20

32,17

12,18

50,98

-1,51

Norway - A

26,32

64,33

37,79

22,45

48,77

-8,68

Georgia - A (gw-C)

10,60

89,40

81,09

36,74

47,34

-4,46

Israel - I (gw-B)

27,10

72,90

42,25

14,44

41,54

-13,35

Sweden - F

39,58

0,00

0,00

0,00

39,58

-13,94

Slovakia - J

36,92

0,00

0,00

0,00

36,92

6,40

Iceland - J

16,41

79,77

17,86

4,55

20,96

-5,20

Albania - E

16,64

18,17

2,99

0,81

17,45

-3,56

Republic of Ireland - B

3,89

49,13

18,86

8,92

12,81

-0,01

Montenegro - G

11,76

3,38

0,67

0,28

12,04

-2,45

Luxembourg - J

8,26

46,37

5,74

1,48

9,74

0,33

Kosovo - I

9,08

0,96

0,23

0,14

9,22

-6,45

Kazakhstan - H (gw-C)

2,75

97,25

12,05

2,61

5,36

-0,07

Northern Ireland - H

4,90

0,00

0,00

0,00

4,90

-9,30

Belarus - I

2,74

0,00

0,00

0,00

2,74

-1,74

Estonia - F (gw-D)

1,54

91,31

4,18

0,99

2,53

0,11

North Macedonia - C

2,40

0,00

0,00

0,00

2,40

0,43

Bulgaria - G

1,17

0,08

0,00

0,00

1,17

-10,00

Faroe Islands - E

0,84

0,01

0,00

0,00

0,84

-0,78

Armenia - D

0,77

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,77

-3,63

Azerbaijan - F

0,30

11,44

1,05

0,30

0,60

-1,78

Latvia - D (gw-D)

0,57

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,57

-0,40

Moldova - E

0,19

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,19

-0,19

Lithuania - G

0,17

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,17

-0,09

Cyprus - A

0,10

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,10

-0,28

Andorra - I

0,02

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,02

0,01

Gibraltar - B

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein - J

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta - C

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino - H

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



A first preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:


Non-qualified group winners from leagues C to A:

From league C: Georgia (33), Greece (34), Turkey (35), Kazakhstan (36).

From league B: Israel (17).

From league A: all group winners qualify directly.


The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:

from league B: Finland (21), Ukraine (22), Iceland (23), Norway (24), Republic of Ireland (26), Albania (27)

from league D: Estonia (49)


So we have:

League D - 1 group-winner

League C - 4 group-winners

League B - 1 group-winner + 6 non group-winners => draw: 3 ngw's to path A


This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

path C:

Georgia - Kazakhstan

Greece - Turkey


path B:

Israel - draw from Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland/Albania

draw from Finland/Ukraine/Iceland/Norway - draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland


path A:

draw from Finland/Ukraine/Iceland/Norway - Estonia

draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland - draw from Iceland/Norway/Republic of Ireland/Albania



Finally a preview of the pots for the draw of the final EURO 2024 tournament. 

Each of the four pots will contain 6 teams. Germany as host will be in pot 1, the other 20 directly qualified teams are seeded in pots, based on the overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking. The three play-off path winners are always seeded in pot 4.

The teams are ordered by average overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking position, weighted with the probability to qualify (direct or via play-offs):


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

Germany

100,00

0

0

0

Portugal

74,30

23,16

1,75

0,62

France

74,28

19,85

5,22

0,48

Belgium

62,96

26,62

8,22

1,55

England

59,33

30,15

8,70

1,26

Switzerland

53,80

37,08

6,39

2,16

---------------------------

Croatia

37,58

44,19

14,49

2,64

Serbia

35,78

31,94

26,16

4,71

Spain

12,48

46,38

25,46

11,34

Czech Republic

13,80

39,71

32,28

7,46

Hungary

20,70

26,28

36,94

9,48

Poland

13,20

37,88

34,73

8,39

---------------------------

Netherlands

8,11

34,88

43,70

10,62

Denmark

6,40

46,64

19,33

17,07

Scotland

6,86

29,76

27,88

21,92

Italy

3,79

12,98

46,05

27,00

Wales

4,69

15,21

31,65

17,88

Austria

3,48

9,68

33,39

24,60

---------------------------

Slovenia

3,15

22,86

16,90

18,18

Finland

1,21

19,56

18,57

23,35

Romania

1,62

8,03

20,87

31,41

Ukraine

0,70

4,82

20,60

38,77

Turkey

0,65

5,15

24,26

22,36

Norway

0,06

6,80

12,01

29,90

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,03

1,30

9,32

40,33

Greece

0,10

0,74

3,71

47,27

Sweden

0,42

3,77

24,35

11,04

Georgia

0,05

2,89

3,94

40,46

Israel

0,04

1,55

8,08

31,87

Slovakia

0,09

1,26

7,59

27,98

Albania

0,23

4,19

8,41

4,62

Iceland

0

0,42

1,99

18,55

Montenegro

0,06

1,16

6,66

4,16

Republic of Ireland

0,01

0,21

2,64

9,95

Kosovo

0,03

0,72

3,08

5,39

Luxembourg

0

0,02

0,52

9,20

Northern Ireland

0

0,93

1,12

2,85

Kazakhstan

0

0,51

0,35

4,50

North Macedonia

0,01

0,22

1,06

1,11

Belarus

0

0,04

0,11

2,59

Estonia

0

0,06

0,30

2,17

Bulgaria

0

0,15

0,53

0,49

Faroe Islands

0

0,09

0,21

0,54

Armenia

0

0,05

0,22

0,50

Latvia

0

0,03

0,15

0,39

Azerbaijan

0

0,03

0,03

0,54

Moldova

0

0,02

0,05

0,12

Lithuania

0

0,01

0,03

0,13

Cyprus

0

0,02

0

0,08

Andorra

0

0

0

0,02

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0

Malta

0

0

0

0

San Marino

0

0

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

10 comments:

  1. Hello. At least in 2013, there was website with UEFA national teams rankings calculations, match by match. Do you know URL?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi George, the UEFA NT coƫfficient ranking doesn't exist anymore since 2017. The calculation was rather simple. The U-21's still use this type of ranking for seeding purposes of qualification and final draws. I still maintain that ranking though I don't publish about it.

    But this blog was one of the places where the official NT coƫfficient ranking was calculated (by Edgar) in those days.

    ReplyDelete
  3. If there will be two draws and PSO in two-legged match, match result in formula for winner will be 0,5 or 0,75?

    ReplyDelete
  4. In that case the pso-winner has a realized match result of 0,75 and the pso-loser has a realized match-result of 0,5.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think you are wrong about play-off formation. Group winner from a lower league is protected to play against a team from higher league. Since all League A teams qualify directly via the group stage, Israel as League B group winner has no League A opponent to protect to play against. So, they can normally participate in League A path and be drawn against other League B teams and/or Estonia.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not quite, mick.

      After selection of the play-off participants, the paths are filled from C to A.
      - as there are exactly 4 league C participants they form path C.
      - as there are more than 4 participants from league B, a path has to be formed with 4 teams from league B.
      - all group winners from each league that are participating in the play-offs always play in their own path. So in this case Israel will always play in path B.
      - the other 3 positions in path B will be drawn from all remaining league B participants.
      - that means that for path A remains: the 3 remaining league B-participants plus league D participant Estonia.

      Delete
    2. I think you are wrong about this "all group winners from each league that are participating in the play-offs always play in their own path".
      Group winner cannot play against teams from higher leagues. That's only constraint.so, if there are no teams from higher league in the playoffs, then group winner i.e Israel can be drawn to the path A, because no A teams will participate in playoffs.

      Delete
    3. On second thought, I think you are right, mick.

      I've looked up the introductionary and explanatory pdf UEFA published for the previous EURO qualification edition (2020) when the play-offs were composed of teams based on UNL-performances for the first time.
      In scenario 1 (from slide 23 onwards) the discussed scenario is illustrated and indeed: all league B participants are in the draw (group winners and non group winners).

      Delete
  6. Any view on 2023 AFC Asian Cup and 2026 WC (AFC zone) qualifiers?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For a simulation of the Asian Cup 2023 in Qatar January next year I await the draw first (May 11th).
      Qualification for the next WC only starts in September (South America) and October (Asia). I will simulate the first rounds of that process in August.

      First upcoming this Summer is the Gold Cup, preceded by two GC qualification play-off rounds and Nations League finals in the US of A and the Netherlands. I will simulate those in the coming, NT-wise dead silent, month.

      Delete