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Tuesday, May 23, 2023

CONCACAF Gold Cup 2023 10.000 simulations

This Summer the only continental showdown to be played is the Gold Cup 2023. From the Nations League 2023 group stage 12 teams have qualified and Qatar is once again the strange guest, or should I say well-rewarded sponsor? The last three participants are determined in three paths of one-off play-off matches (two semi finals and a final) to be played one week before the main tournament starts.

The USA is once again the host, although the first match of Canada in group D (yes, one match only!) is played in Toronto.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. 


First the win-probabilities in the qualification play-off paths:


path A

SF

Final

Trinidad and Tobago

82,73

66,28

Guadeloupe

17,27

9,18

Guyana

73,99

20,34

Grenada

26,01

4,20

path B

SF

Final

Martinique

92,21

67,77

St. Lucia

7,79

1,43

Suriname

85,27

28,59

Puerto Rico

14,73

2,21

path C

SF

Final

Curacao

80,17

55,47

St. Kitts and Nevis

19,83

5,96

French Guyana

97,70

38,51

St. Maarten

2,30

0,06



The groups (with place holders for the three play-off winners) were drawn in April. The final tournament has a classic format with 4 groups of 4 teams. The numbers one and two from each group continue to the quarter finals.


Here are the group results with teams ordered by the last column which contains the average final group position of each team over all simulations, weighted by the qualification probability for the play-off participants:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

USA

90,84

8,49

0,64

0,03

1,10

Jamaica

7,99

64,99

20,70

6,32

2,25

Curacao

0,56

11,09

25,30

18,52

3,11

French Guyana

0,27

5,74

17,44

15,06

3,23

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,01

0,50

2,49

2,96

3,41

Nicaragua

0,33

9,19

33,43

57,05

3,47

St. Maarten

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,06

4,00

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Mexico

72,85

18,47

6,40

2,28

1,38

Qatar

10,78

30,54

32,31

26,37

2,74

Haiti

10,95

31,06

30,64

27,35

2,74

Honduras

5,42

19,93

30,65

44,00

3,13

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Costa Rica

52,23

32,50

11,75

3,52

1,67

Panama

38,10

39,18

16,89

5,83

1,90

El Salvador

6,77

18,31

41,80

33,12

3,01

Martinique

2,35

7,80

21,57

36,05

3,35

Suriname

0,55

2,16

7,74

18,14

3,52

Puerto Rico

0,00

0,04

0,17

2,00

3,89

St. Lucia

0,00

0,01

0,08

1,34

3,93

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Canada

83,11

13,74

2,59

0,56

1,21

Guatemala

11,46

46,96

27,12

14,46

2,45

Trinidad and Tobago

1,93

15,43

24,24

24,68

3,08

Cuba

3,32

20,36

36,55

39,77

3,13

Guyana

0,13

2,27

6,05

11,89

3,46

Guadeloupe

0,05

0,98

2,52

5,63

3,50

Grenada

0,00

0,26

0,93

3,01

3,65



The probabilities to qualify for the quarter finals:

team

quarter final

USA

99,33

Canada

96,85

Mexico

91,32

Costa Rica

84,73

Panama

77,28

Jamaica

72,98

Guatemala

58,42

Haiti

42,01

Qatar

41,32

Honduras

25,35

El Salvador

25,08

Cuba

23,68

Trinidad and Tobago

17,36

Curacao

11,65

Martinique

10,15

Nicaragua

9,52

French Guyana

6,01

Suriname

2,71

Guyana

2,40

Guadeloupe

1,03

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,51

Grenada

0,26

Puerto Rico

0,04

St. Lucia

0,01

St. Maarten

0,00



The probabilities to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the quarter finals:

team

semi final

USA

93,24

[93,87]

Mexico

71,62

[78,43]

Canada

68,26

[70,48]

Costa Rica

51,11

[60,32]

Panama

39,88

[51,60]

Jamaica

22,96

[31,46]

Qatar

12,46

[30,15]

Haiti

12,37

[29,45]

Guatemala

9,19

[15,73]

Honduras

5,40

[21,30]

El Salvador

5,25

[20,93]

Curacao

1,67

[14,33]

Martinique

1,59

[15,67]

Cuba

1,57

  [6,63]

Trinidad and Tobago

1,47

  [8,47]

French Guyana

0,79

[13,14]

Nicaragua

0,73

  [7,67]

Suriname

0,32

[11,81]

Guyana

0,09

  [3,75]

Guadeloupe

0,02

  [1,94]

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,01

  [1,96]

Grenada

0,00

  [0,00]

Puerto Rico

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Lucia

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Maarten

0,00

  [0,00]



The probabilities to qualify for the final. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the semi finals:

team

final

USA

77,46

[83,08]

Mexico

46,91

[65,50]

Canada

31,30

[45,85]

Costa Rica

16,84

[32,95]

Panama

12,24

[30,69]

Jamaica

5,03

[21,91]

Haiti

2,90

[23,44]

Qatar

2,88

[23,11]

Guatemala

1,83

[19,91]

Honduras

0,80

[14,81]

El Salvador

0,78

[14,86]

Martinique

0,25

[15,72]

Trinidad and Tobago

0,25

[17,01]

Curacao

0,21

[12,57]

Cuba

0,18

[11,46]

Suriname

0,06

[18,75]

French Guyana

0,05

  [6,33]

Nicaragua

0,03

  [4,11]

Guyana

0,00

  [0,00]

Guadeloupe

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,00

  [0,00]

Grenada

0,00

  [0,00]

Puerto Rico

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Lucia

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Maarten

0,00

  [0,00]



The probabilities to win the Gold Cup. In square brackets this probability, given the team qualifies for the final:

team

champion

USA

61,16

[78,96]

Mexico

18,74

[39,95]

Canada

8,53

[27,25]

Costa Rica

5,79

[34,38]

Panama

3,64

[29,74]

Jamaica

0,68

[13,52]

Haiti

0,52

[17,93]

Qatar

0,42

[14,58]

Guatemala

0,30

[16,39]

Honduras

0,09

[11,25]

El Salvador

0,07

  [8,97]

Martinique

0,04

[16,00]

Trinidad and Tobago

0,01

  [4,00]

Suriname

0,01

[16,67]

Curacao

0,00

  [0,00]

Cuba

0,00

  [0,00]

French Guyana

0,00

  [0,00]

Nicaragua

0,00

  [0,00]

Guyana

0,00

  [0,00]

Guadeloupe

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Kitts and Nevis

0,00

  [0,00]

Grenada

0,00

  [0,00]

Puerto Rico

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Lucia

0,00

  [0,00]

St. Maarten

0,00

  [0,00]


It seems to become a very one-sided affair, this tournament in the USA.



Okay, a quick sidestep is appropriate, I think. Two Nations League Final Four tournaments for UEFA and CONCACAF are also to be played in the upcoming June-window in the Netherlands and the USA respectively.

The structure is for both tournaments the same: 2 semi final play-offs and a final and 3rd place play-off. All are one-off matches.


UEFA Nations League 2023 Final Four:

team

SF

Final

3rd place

Netherlands

83,82

69,28

13,52

Croatia

16,18

9,76

48,45

Spain

64,10

13,55

12,57

Italy

35,90

7,41

25,46



CONCACAF Nations League 2023 Final Four:

team

SF

Final

3rd place

USA

76,78

64,10

19,75

Mexico

23,22

17,31

58,77

Canada

69,78

13,87

7,58

Panama

30,22

4,72

13,90



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

10 comments:

  1. Please post about AFC Asian cup 2023!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What's the hurry ? That tournament is only over half a year from now. Doesn't make much sense to me to already simulate while a lot of matches with top Asian teams involved are still to be played in the rest of this year.

      Delete
  2. Woof, that's a heavy favorite in the US! I have it not quite so lopsided, US at about 50% to win. Home field doing a lot of work in CONCACAF. Glad to have this Qatar business behind us after this tournament, they can go back to being an afterthought in football history.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Agreed. This is by far the highest tournament-win probability I've seen in 10 years of tournament simulations. Of course, home field advantage and the big differences in elo-ratings with all participating teams bar the other top-4 teams play a role in this, but I had at least expected Mexico to be more of a force here.
    The easy path in the knock-outs for the USA could also be part of the explanation: as group A winner in the quarters against D2 (Guatemala/Cuba) and in the semis the winner of C1 (Costa Rica/Panama) and B2 (Haiti/Qatar), avoiding Mexico and Canada until the final.

    ReplyDelete
  4. what about caf world cup qualification expected ranking

    ReplyDelete
  5. Draw for CAF World Cup qualification is scheduled for July 12th. The FIFA July ranking is published on July 20th. So, the draw will be delayed (so the July ranking can be used) or will use the already known FIFA April ranking.
    I will publish the preview of the July ranking somewhere in the coming week.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I know not a big deal for you, but can do the same for Saff Championship

    ReplyDelete
  7. Actually, I had simulations of this tournament:

    Probabilities (in %) for the South Asian Championship 2023.
    Groups:

    group A - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
    Kuwait - 50,68 - 45,64 - 3,46 - 0,22
    India - 48,21 - 46,80 - 4,43 - 0,56
    Nepal - 0,87 - 5,12 - 55,23 - 38,78
    Pakistan - 0,24 - 2,44 - 36,88 - 60,44


    group B - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
    Lebanon - 93,75 - 5,80 - 0,42 - 0,03
    Maldives - 4,82 - 58,97 - 31,65 - 4,56
    Bangladesh - 1,38 - 32,78 - 54,90 - 10,94
    Bhutan - 0,05 - 2,45 - 13,03 - 84,47


    Knock-out stage (2 semi finals A1-B2 and B1-A2 and a final):

    team - F-win - F-loss - SF-win - SF-loss
    India - 39,87 - 31,85 - 71,72 - 23,29
    Kuwait - 38,72 - 34,76 - 73,48 - 22,84
    Lebanon - 21,00 - 28,44 - 49,44 - 50,11
    Maldives - 0,26 - 3,09 - 3,35 - 60,44
    Nepal - 0,08 - 0,93 - 1,01 - 4,98
    Bangladesh - 0,04 - 0,74 - 0,78 - 33,38
    Pakistan - 0,03 - 0,18 - 0,21 - 2,47
    Bhutan - 0,00 - 0,01 - 0,01 - 2,49

    And as an extra also the probabilities (in %) for the inaugural Central Asian Nations Cup 2023.
    Groups:

    group A - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
    Uzbekistan - 66,90 - 26,06 - 5,81 - 1,23
    Oman - 29,53 - 56,28 - 11,66 - 2,53
    Tajikistan - 2,52 - 11,57 - 55,07 - 30,84
    Turkmenistan - 1,05 - 6,09 - 27,46 - 65,40


    group B - 1st - 2nd - 3rd
    Iran - 93,83 - 6,03 - 0,14
    Kyrgyzstan - 5,88 - 68,07 - 26,05
    Afghanistan - 0,29 - 25,90 - 73,81


    Knock-out stage (final A1-B1 and 3rd place play-off A2-B2):

    team - 1st - 2nd - 3rd - 4th
    Iran - 66,28 - 27,55 - 4,73 - 1,30
    Uzbekistan - 25,43 - 41,47 - 24,07 - 1,99
    Oman - 7,72 - 21,81 - 51,14 - 5,14
    Kyrgyzstan - 0,39 - 5,49 - 6,71 - 61,36
    Tajikistan - 0,15 - 2,37 - 8,55 - 3,02
    Turkmenistan - 0,03 - 1,02 - 3,85 - 2,24
    Afghanistan - 0,00 - 0,29 - 0,95 - 24,95

    ReplyDelete
  8. Having seen the rosters released for this tournament it'll be interesting to measure projected elo performance vs real results, given that at least the USA and Canada clearly aren't sending their A-Teams to the Gold Cup. That being said maybe those rosters are still good enough to dominate anyway

    ReplyDelete