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Wednesday, September 13, 2023

2024 UEFA EURO qualification: 10.000 simulations (September 2023)

Last week the match days five and six of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2 and after MD4.


Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.


First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Scotland

53,21

45,47

1,32

0,00

0,00

1,48

Spain

46,66

51,89

1,41

0,04

0,00

1,55

Norway

0,13

2,61

89,62

7,63

0,01

3,05

Georgia

0,00

0,03

7,64

91,18

1,15

3,93

Cyprus

0,00

0,00

0,01

1,15

98,84

4,99

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

France

92,19

7,80

0,01

0,00

0,00

1,08

Netherlands

7,76

88,47

3,68

0,09

0,00

1,96

Greece

0,05

3,60

79,51

16,84

0,00

3,13

Republic of Ireland

0,00

0,13

16,80

83,07

0,00

3,83

Gibraltar

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

5,00

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

England

92,71

7,27

0,02

0,00

0,00

1,07

Italy

7,27

70,99

20,60

1,14

0,00

2,16

Ukraine

0,02

21,34

73,07

5,57

0,00

2,84

North Macedonia

0,00

0,40

6,31

93,29

0,00

3,93

Malta

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

5,00

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Croatia

97,54

1,96

0,45

0,05

0,00

1,03

Turkey

1,90

79,64

17,93

0,53

0,00

2,17

Wales

0,49

15,83

37,97

45,70

0,01

3,29

Armenia

0,07

2,57

43,64

53,65

0,07

3,51

Latvia

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,07

99,92

5,00

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Czech Republic

53,96

30,33

14,87

0,84

0,00

1,63

Albania

42,32

46,94

9,97

0,77

0,00

1,69

Poland

3,62

21,86

67,66

6,86

0,00

2,78

Moldova

0,10

0,87

7,49

91,53

0,01

3,90

Faroe Islands

0,00

0,00

0,01

0,00

99,99

5,00

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Belgium

62,13

37,80

0,07

0,00

0,00

1,38

Austria

37,87

61,97

0,16

0,00

0,00

1,62

Sweden

0,00

0,23

96,55

3,01

0,21

3,03

Estonia

0,00

0,00

1,70

58,90

39,40

4,38

Azerbaijan

0,00

0,00

1,52

38,09

60,39

4,59

group G

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

avg

Hungary

78,74

19,98

1,28

0,00

0,00

1,23

Serbia

20,88

74,33

4,66

0,13

0,00

1,84

Montenegro

0,38

5,69

93,02

0,91

0,00

2,94

Bulgaria

0,00

0,00

0,29

84,11

15,60

4,15

Lithuania

0,00

0,00

0,75

14,85

84,40

4,84

group H

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Denmark

78,34

16,81

4,44

0,41

0,00

0,00

1,27

Finland

11,62

54,00

29,31

5,00

0,07

0,00

2,28

Slovenia

9,81

26,65

51,35

12,10

0,09

0,00

2,66

Kazakhstan

0,23

2,54

14,90

82,33

0,00

0,00

3,79

Northern Ireland

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,16

99,84

0,00

5,00

San Marino

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

6,00

group I

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Switzerland

77,28

18,58

4,12

0,02

0,00

0,00

1,27

Romania

16,85

46,91

36,09

0,15

0,00

0,00

2,20

Israel

5,87

34,50

57,31

2,31

0,01

0,00

2,56

Kosovo

0,00

0,01

2,34

64,47

27,21

5,97

4,37

Belarus

0,00

0,00

0,13

29,34

58,46

12,07

4,82

Andorra

0,00

0,00

0,01

3,71

14,32

81,96

5,78

group J

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

avg

Portugal

99,93

0,07

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

1,00

Slovakia

0,07

56,73

37,22

5,28

0,70

0,00

2,50

Luxembourg

0,00

40,86

46,61

8,81

3,72

0,00

2,75

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0,00

1,63

10,57

49,59

38,17

0,04

4,24

Iceland

0,00

0,71

5,60

36,32

57,36

0,01

4,50

Liechtenstein

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,05

99,95

6,00



Spain is firing from all cylinders with 13 goals in two matches against Georgia and Cyprus. Scotland still remains on top of the group though. Besides which team will top the group A the rest seems decided already.
The Netherlands got two vital wins in difficult matches against Greece and Republic of Ireland. This group B also falls in the expected order.

In group C Italy finally took over second place from Ukraine winning their direct encounter. But let's wait until the last matchday with Ukraine-Italy for things to become really clear. Croatia stamped their authority on the proceedings in group D, with a fight for second between Turkey and Wales probably.

In group E Albania was the surprise package of this week. First drawing Czech Republic and then registering a fine 2-0 win over Poland, they are now well placed for direct qualification. Poland will  probably have to resort to the play-offs.
Belgium and Austria are cruising to qualification in group F. A clear home loss to Austria stripped Sweden of almost any chance to qualify.

Hungary (winning in Belgrade) and Serbia seem to be the teams to qualify from group G. In group H it is a four-way fight between Slovenia, Denmark, Finland and Kazakhstan for the top 2 places. The last gasp win of Denmark in Finland could prove to be pivotal. Kazakhstan has the most difficult schedule with three away matches to their direct opponents left.

The teams in Group I stumble to the finish with still Switzerland and Romania in the driving seat and Israel probably heading for the play-offs. In group J Portugal is all but mathematically qualified, Slovakia has the edge over Luxembourg for second place, but the showdown in Luxembourg on MD8 still awaits.



The probabilities for each UEFA team to qualify for EURO 2024, directly (Qdirect) or via the play-offs (po-semi, po-final and po-win). In column Qtot the total probability to qualify for EURO 2024 as the sum of Qdirect and po-win. Teams are ordered by this column. UNL group winners are indicated with 'gw' and the league letter.

In the last column you can find the difference in Qtot (in %-points) compared to the simulation results after MD4.


team - grp

Qdirect

po-semi

po-final

po-win

Qtot

diff

Germany (host)

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,00

Portugal - J

100,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

100,00

0,01

England - C

99,98

0,02

0,02

0,01

99,99

0,42

France - B

99,99

0,01

0,01

0,00

99,99

0,05

Belgium - F

99,93

0,07

0,06

0,05

99,98

0,58

Austria - F

99,84

0,16

0,10

0,06

99,90

7,89

Croatia - D (gw-A)

99,50

0,50

0,47

0,33

99,83

0,33

Spain - A (gw-A)

98,55

1,45

1,34

0,86

99,41

2,19

Scotland - A (gw-B)

98,68

1,32

0,83

0,58

99,26

0,37

Hungary - G

98,72

1,28

1,01

0,53

99,25

4,68

Netherlands - B (gw-A)

96,23

3,77

3,58

2,27

98,50

6,58

Switzerland - I

95,86

4,14

3,65

2,04

97,90

-1,01

Denmark - H

95,15

4,85

4,36

2,73

97,88

6,85

Serbia - G (gw-B)

95,21

4,79

3,21

2,13

97,34

-1,40

Italy - C (gw-A)

78,26

21,74

20,75

14,41

92,67

3,91

Czech Republic - E

84,29

15,71

13,04

6,26

90,55

-5,76

Albania - E

89,26

0,61

0,22

0,12

89,38

51,35

Turkey - D (gw-C)

81,54

18,46

6,55

4,04

85,58

-7,28

Finland - H

65,62

34,38

17,79

9,46

75,08

-3,49

Romania - I

63,76

0,00

0,00

0,00

63,76

0,20

Ukraine - C

21,36

78,59

53,86

36,98

58,34

-15,48

Slovakia - J

56,80

0,00

0,00

0,00

56,80

-11,43

Israel - I (gw-B)

40,37

59,63

35,38

15,64

56,01

4,22

Poland - E

25,48

74,52

60,19

27,95

53,43

-21,98

Greece - B (gw-C)

3,65

96,35

79,05

47,86

51,51

-9,30

Luxembourg - J

40,86

48,73

10,14

3,90

44,76

18,10

Slovenia - H

36,46

30,69

13,48

6,13

42,59

2,43

Georgia - A (gw-C)

0,03

99,97

81,68

36,66

36,69

-13,13

Wales - D

16,32

83,60

44,10

19,57

35,89

15,31

Norway - A

2,74

75,37

40,43

23,75

26,49

-4,91

Bosnia-Herzegovina - J (gw-B)

1,63

98,37

46,53

16,51

18,14

-3,79

Iceland - J

0,71

97,13

23,45

8,05

8,76

1,49

Kazakhstan - H (gw-C)

2,77

97,23

15,79

5,70

8,47

-4,60

Montenegro - G

6,07

0,15

0,03

0,01

6,08

-3,81

Armenia - D

2,64

0,00

0,00

0,00

2,64

-1,59

Republic of Ireland - B

0,13

10,12

4,10

1,85

1,98

-4,67

Estonia - F (gw-D)

0,00

97,03

8,01

1,72

1,72

0,80

Azerbaijan - F

0,00

37,17

6,35

1,66

1,66

0,38

Moldova - E

0,97

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,97

0,48

North Macedonia - C

0,40

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,40

0,19

Sweden - F

0,23

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,23

-11,84

Kosovo - I

0,01

2,08

0,44

0,18

0,19

-1,29

Belarus - I

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,71

Northern Ireland - H

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,59

Bulgaria - G

0,00

0,01

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,61

Faroe Islands - E

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,07

Lithuania - G

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,05

Latvia - D (gw-D)

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

-0,02

Cyprus - A

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Andorra - I

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Gibraltar - B

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Liechtenstein - J

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

Malta - C

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

San Marino - H

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00



A preview of the composition of the play-off paths can be determined by taking the top two from each group with highest probabilities to qualify directly out of the equation and see which teams will qualify for the play-offs in that situation:

Non-qualified group winners from leagues C to A:

From league C: Georgia (33), Greece (34), Kazakhstan (36).
From league B: Israel (17), Bosnia-Herzegovina (18)
From league A: all group winners qualify directly.

The following non group-winners (ngw) complete the play-offs:

from league A: Poland (11) and Wales (16)
from league B: Ukraine (22), Iceland (23) and Norway (24)
from league C: Luxembourg (37)
from league D: Estonia (49)

So we have:
League D 1 team: 1 group-winner
League C 4 teams: 3 group-winners and 1 non group-winner
League B 5 teams: 2 group-winners and 3 non group-winners
League A 2 teams: 2 non group-winners

This leads to the following play-off semi finals:

path C:

Georgia - Luxembourg

Greece - Kazakhstan


path B:

Israel - draw from Iceland/Norway

Bosnia-Herzegovina - draw from Ukraine/Iceland


path A:

Poland - Estonia

Wales - draw from Ukraine/Iceland/Norway



Finally a preview of the pots for the draw of the final EURO 2024 tournament. 

Each of the four pots will contain 6 teams. Germany as host will be in pot 1, the other 20 directly qualified teams are seeded in pots, based on the overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking. The three play-off path winners are always seeded in pot 4.

The teams are ordered by average overall EURO 2024 qualification ranking position, weighed with the probability to qualify (direct or via play-offs):


team

pot 1

pot 2

pot 3

pot 4

Germany

100,00

0

0

0

Portugal

98,21

1,73

0,06

0

France

82,00

13,47

4,52

0

England

68,21

26,14

5,61

0,03

Croatia

60,55

37,03

1,62

0,63

Belgium

48,62

30,35

20,83

0,18

---------------------------

Hungary

33,73

46,64

16,50

2,38

Scotland

29,12

34,20

34,74

1,20

Spain

27,31

36,90

32,73

2,47

Switzerland

11,71

65,78

12,06

8,35

Austria

23,98

28,57

44,03

3,32

Denmark

1,66

76,83

13,70

5,69

---------------------------

Netherlands

6,13

30,83

56,28

5,26

Czech Republic

5,31

48,88

24,64

11,72

Serbia

1,23

20,82

63,41

11,88

Albania

0,65

41,77

33,04

13,92

Italy

1,34

7,81

59,88

23,64

Turkey

0,05

2,07

31,60

51,86

---------------------------

Finland

0

12,24

39,37

23,47

Romania

0,14

16,78

17,52

29,32

Ukraine

0

0,02

16,29

42,03

Israel

0

5,97

9,52

40,52

Slovakia

0

0,11

10,54

46,15

Poland

0

3,62

14,81

35,00

Slovenia

0,05

9,79

17,79

14,96

Greece

0

0,25

2,88

48,38

Luxembourg

0

0

5,32

39,44

Wales

0

0,49

5,04

30,36

Georgia

0

0

0

36,69

Norway

0

0,13

2,22

24,14

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0

0

0

18,14

Iceland

0

0

0

8,76

Kazakhstan

0

0,23

0,63

7,61

Montenegro

0

0,38

2,02

3,68

Armenia

0

0,07

0,32

2,25

Republic of Ireland

0

0

0

1,98

Estonia

0

0

0

1,72

Azerbaijan

0

0

0

1,66

Moldova

0

0,10

0,19

0,68

North Macedonia

0

0

0,07

0,33

Sweden

0

0

0,22

0,01

Kosovo

0

0

0

0,19

Belarus

0

0

0

0

Northern Ireland

0

0

0

0

Bulgaria

0

0

0

0

Faroe Islands

0

0

0

0

Lithuania

0

0

0

0

Latvia

0

0

0

0

Cyprus

0

0

0

0

Andorra

0

0

0

0

Gibraltar

0

0

0

0

Liechtenstein

0

0

0

0

Malta

0

0

0

0

San Marino

0

0

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

3 comments:

  1. Thanks Ed

    I think one of the downfalls of the extended playoffs and convoluted system is that the number of games played in qualifying (230) and the number of teams eliminated (22 excluding Russia) is completely out of balance.

    Wikipedia shows 5 teams are eliminated after 6 match days.

    Do your simulations allow you to show probabilities that each team will be qualified after match day 8 and the probabilities that each team will be eliminated after match day 8 ?

    What would also be interesting to me would be to know the average number of teams qualified after match day 8 and the average number of teams eliminated after match day 8.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Interesting idea, but that would mean a big overhaul of the architecture of my simulation model, because it's always the situation at the end of a stage (a group stage, a quarter final etc.) that I register for each simulation iteration, not all the intermediate situations (after MD1 in the group, after MD2 in the group etc.).
    So I think I can't accommodate you with that kind of output.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. no problem, we will see how it plays out

      Delete