Last week the match days five and six of qualification for EURO 2024 have been played. See here for all the details of the qualification process and the simulation results before the groups started. See for previous simulation results: after MD2 and after MD4.
Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy. The complete remaining match schedule for UEFA teams is simulated, including currently scheduled friendlies in 2023.
First the group results with teams ordered by average group position (in the last column):
group A |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
Scotland |
53,21 |
45,47 |
1,32 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,48 |
|
Spain |
46,66 |
51,89 |
1,41 |
0,04 |
0,00 |
1,55 |
|
Norway |
0,13 |
2,61 |
89,62 |
7,63 |
0,01 |
3,05 |
|
Georgia |
0,00 |
0,03 |
7,64 |
91,18 |
1,15 |
3,93 |
|
Cyprus |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
1,15 |
98,84 |
4,99 |
|
group B |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
France |
92,19 |
7,80 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,08 |
|
Netherlands |
7,76 |
88,47 |
3,68 |
0,09 |
0,00 |
1,96 |
|
Greece |
0,05 |
3,60 |
79,51 |
16,84 |
0,00 |
3,13 |
|
Republic of Ireland |
0,00 |
0,13 |
16,80 |
83,07 |
0,00 |
3,83 |
|
Gibraltar |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
5,00 |
|
group C |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
England |
92,71 |
7,27 |
0,02 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,07 |
|
Italy |
7,27 |
70,99 |
20,60 |
1,14 |
0,00 |
2,16 |
|
Ukraine |
0,02 |
21,34 |
73,07 |
5,57 |
0,00 |
2,84 |
|
North Macedonia |
0,00 |
0,40 |
6,31 |
93,29 |
0,00 |
3,93 |
|
Malta |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
5,00 |
|
group D |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
Croatia |
97,54 |
1,96 |
0,45 |
0,05 |
0,00 |
1,03 |
|
Turkey |
1,90 |
79,64 |
17,93 |
0,53 |
0,00 |
2,17 |
|
Wales |
0,49 |
15,83 |
37,97 |
45,70 |
0,01 |
3,29 |
|
Armenia |
0,07 |
2,57 |
43,64 |
53,65 |
0,07 |
3,51 |
|
Latvia |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,07 |
99,92 |
5,00 |
|
group E |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
Czech Republic |
53,96 |
30,33 |
14,87 |
0,84 |
0,00 |
1,63 |
|
Albania |
42,32 |
46,94 |
9,97 |
0,77 |
0,00 |
1,69 |
|
Poland |
3,62 |
21,86 |
67,66 |
6,86 |
0,00 |
2,78 |
|
Moldova |
0,10 |
0,87 |
7,49 |
91,53 |
0,01 |
3,90 |
|
Faroe Islands |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
99,99 |
5,00 |
|
group F |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
Belgium |
62,13 |
37,80 |
0,07 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,38 |
|
Austria |
37,87 |
61,97 |
0,16 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,62 |
|
Sweden |
0,00 |
0,23 |
96,55 |
3,01 |
0,21 |
3,03 |
|
Estonia |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,70 |
58,90 |
39,40 |
4,38 |
|
Azerbaijan |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,52 |
38,09 |
60,39 |
4,59 |
|
group G |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
avg |
|
Hungary |
78,74 |
19,98 |
1,28 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,23 |
|
Serbia |
20,88 |
74,33 |
4,66 |
0,13 |
0,00 |
1,84 |
|
Montenegro |
0,38 |
5,69 |
93,02 |
0,91 |
0,00 |
2,94 |
|
Bulgaria |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,29 |
84,11 |
15,60 |
4,15 |
|
Lithuania |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,75 |
14,85 |
84,40 |
4,84 |
|
group H |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
Denmark |
78,34 |
16,81 |
4,44 |
0,41 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,27 |
Finland |
11,62 |
54,00 |
29,31 |
5,00 |
0,07 |
0,00 |
2,28 |
Slovenia |
9,81 |
26,65 |
51,35 |
12,10 |
0,09 |
0,00 |
2,66 |
Kazakhstan |
0,23 |
2,54 |
14,90 |
82,33 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
3,79 |
Northern Ireland |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,16 |
99,84 |
0,00 |
5,00 |
San Marino |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
6,00 |
group I |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
Switzerland |
77,28 |
18,58 |
4,12 |
0,02 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,27 |
Romania |
16,85 |
46,91 |
36,09 |
0,15 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
2,20 |
Israel |
5,87 |
34,50 |
57,31 |
2,31 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
2,56 |
Kosovo |
0,00 |
0,01 |
2,34 |
64,47 |
27,21 |
5,97 |
4,37 |
Belarus |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,13 |
29,34 |
58,46 |
12,07 |
4,82 |
Andorra |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,01 |
3,71 |
14,32 |
81,96 |
5,78 |
group J |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
avg |
Portugal |
99,93 |
0,07 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
1,00 |
Slovakia |
0,07 |
56,73 |
37,22 |
5,28 |
0,70 |
0,00 |
2,50 |
Luxembourg |
0,00 |
40,86 |
46,61 |
8,81 |
3,72 |
0,00 |
2,75 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
0,00 |
1,63 |
10,57 |
49,59 |
38,17 |
0,04 |
4,24 |
Iceland |
0,00 |
0,71 |
5,60 |
36,32 |
57,36 |
0,01 |
4,50 |
Liechtenstein |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,05 |
99,95 |
6,00 |
Belgium and Austria are cruising to qualification in group F. A clear home loss to Austria stripped Sweden of almost any chance to qualify.
team - grp |
Qdirect |
po-semi |
po-final |
po-win |
Qtot |
diff |
Germany (host) |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,00 |
Portugal - J |
100,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
100,00 |
0,01 |
England - C |
99,98 |
0,02 |
0,02 |
0,01 |
99,99 |
0,42 |
France - B |
99,99 |
0,01 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
99,99 |
0,05 |
Belgium - F |
99,93 |
0,07 |
0,06 |
0,05 |
99,98 |
0,58 |
Austria - F |
99,84 |
0,16 |
0,10 |
0,06 |
99,90 |
7,89 |
Croatia - D (gw-A) |
99,50 |
0,50 |
0,47 |
0,33 |
99,83 |
0,33 |
Spain - A (gw-A) |
98,55 |
1,45 |
1,34 |
0,86 |
99,41 |
2,19 |
Scotland - A (gw-B) |
98,68 |
1,32 |
0,83 |
0,58 |
99,26 |
0,37 |
Hungary - G |
98,72 |
1,28 |
1,01 |
0,53 |
99,25 |
4,68 |
Netherlands - B (gw-A) |
96,23 |
3,77 |
3,58 |
2,27 |
98,50 |
6,58 |
Switzerland - I |
95,86 |
4,14 |
3,65 |
2,04 |
97,90 |
-1,01 |
Denmark - H |
95,15 |
4,85 |
4,36 |
2,73 |
97,88 |
6,85 |
Serbia - G (gw-B) |
95,21 |
4,79 |
3,21 |
2,13 |
97,34 |
-1,40 |
Italy - C (gw-A) |
78,26 |
21,74 |
20,75 |
14,41 |
92,67 |
3,91 |
Czech Republic - E |
84,29 |
15,71 |
13,04 |
6,26 |
90,55 |
-5,76 |
Albania - E |
89,26 |
0,61 |
0,22 |
0,12 |
89,38 |
51,35 |
Turkey - D (gw-C) |
81,54 |
18,46 |
6,55 |
4,04 |
85,58 |
-7,28 |
Finland - H |
65,62 |
34,38 |
17,79 |
9,46 |
75,08 |
-3,49 |
Romania - I |
63,76 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
63,76 |
0,20 |
Ukraine - C |
21,36 |
78,59 |
53,86 |
36,98 |
58,34 |
-15,48 |
Slovakia - J |
56,80 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
56,80 |
-11,43 |
Israel - I (gw-B) |
40,37 |
59,63 |
35,38 |
15,64 |
56,01 |
4,22 |
Poland - E |
25,48 |
74,52 |
60,19 |
27,95 |
53,43 |
-21,98 |
Greece - B (gw-C) |
3,65 |
96,35 |
79,05 |
47,86 |
51,51 |
-9,30 |
Luxembourg - J |
40,86 |
48,73 |
10,14 |
3,90 |
44,76 |
18,10 |
Slovenia - H |
36,46 |
30,69 |
13,48 |
6,13 |
42,59 |
2,43 |
Georgia - A (gw-C) |
0,03 |
99,97 |
81,68 |
36,66 |
36,69 |
-13,13 |
Wales - D |
16,32 |
83,60 |
44,10 |
19,57 |
35,89 |
15,31 |
Norway - A |
2,74 |
75,37 |
40,43 |
23,75 |
26,49 |
-4,91 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina - J (gw-B) |
1,63 |
98,37 |
46,53 |
16,51 |
18,14 |
-3,79 |
Iceland - J |
0,71 |
97,13 |
23,45 |
8,05 |
8,76 |
1,49 |
Kazakhstan - H (gw-C) |
2,77 |
97,23 |
15,79 |
5,70 |
8,47 |
-4,60 |
Montenegro - G |
6,07 |
0,15 |
0,03 |
0,01 |
6,08 |
-3,81 |
Armenia - D |
2,64 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
2,64 |
-1,59 |
Republic of Ireland - B |
0,13 |
10,12 |
4,10 |
1,85 |
1,98 |
-4,67 |
Estonia - F (gw-D) |
0,00 |
97,03 |
8,01 |
1,72 |
1,72 |
0,80 |
Azerbaijan - F |
0,00 |
37,17 |
6,35 |
1,66 |
1,66 |
0,38 |
Moldova - E |
0,97 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,97 |
0,48 |
North Macedonia - C |
0,40 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,40 |
0,19 |
Sweden - F |
0,23 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,23 |
-11,84 |
Kosovo - I |
0,01 |
2,08 |
0,44 |
0,18 |
0,19 |
-1,29 |
Belarus - I |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,71 |
Northern Ireland - H |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,59 |
Bulgaria - G |
0,00 |
0,01 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,61 |
Faroe Islands - E |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,07 |
Lithuania - G |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,05 |
Latvia - D (gw-D) |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
-0,02 |
Cyprus - A |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
Andorra - I |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
Gibraltar - B |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
Liechtenstein - J |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
Malta - C |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
San Marino - H |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
0,00 |
team |
pot 1 |
pot 2 |
pot 3 |
pot 4 |
Germany |
100,00 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Portugal |
98,21 |
1,73 |
0,06 |
0 |
France |
82,00 |
13,47 |
4,52 |
0 |
England |
68,21 |
26,14 |
5,61 |
0,03 |
Croatia |
60,55 |
37,03 |
1,62 |
0,63 |
Belgium |
48,62 |
30,35 |
20,83 |
0,18 |
--------------------------- |
||||
Hungary |
33,73 |
46,64 |
16,50 |
2,38 |
Scotland |
29,12 |
34,20 |
34,74 |
1,20 |
Spain |
27,31 |
36,90 |
32,73 |
2,47 |
Switzerland |
11,71 |
65,78 |
12,06 |
8,35 |
Austria |
23,98 |
28,57 |
44,03 |
3,32 |
Denmark |
1,66 |
76,83 |
13,70 |
5,69 |
--------------------------- |
||||
Netherlands |
6,13 |
30,83 |
56,28 |
5,26 |
Czech Republic |
5,31 |
48,88 |
24,64 |
11,72 |
Serbia |
1,23 |
20,82 |
63,41 |
11,88 |
Albania |
0,65 |
41,77 |
33,04 |
13,92 |
Italy |
1,34 |
7,81 |
59,88 |
23,64 |
Turkey |
0,05 |
2,07 |
31,60 |
51,86 |
--------------------------- |
||||
Finland |
0 |
12,24 |
39,37 |
23,47 |
Romania |
0,14 |
16,78 |
17,52 |
29,32 |
Ukraine |
0 |
0,02 |
16,29 |
42,03 |
Israel |
0 |
5,97 |
9,52 |
40,52 |
Slovakia |
0 |
0,11 |
10,54 |
46,15 |
Poland |
0 |
3,62 |
14,81 |
35,00 |
Slovenia |
0,05 |
9,79 |
17,79 |
14,96 |
Greece |
0 |
0,25 |
2,88 |
48,38 |
Luxembourg |
0 |
0 |
5,32 |
39,44 |
Wales |
0 |
0,49 |
5,04 |
30,36 |
Georgia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
36,69 |
Norway |
0 |
0,13 |
2,22 |
24,14 |
Bosnia-Herzegovina |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18,14 |
Iceland |
0 |
0 |
0 |
8,76 |
Kazakhstan |
0 |
0,23 |
0,63 |
7,61 |
Montenegro |
0 |
0,38 |
2,02 |
3,68 |
Armenia |
0 |
0,07 |
0,32 |
2,25 |
Republic of Ireland |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,98 |
Estonia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,72 |
Azerbaijan |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1,66 |
Moldova |
0 |
0,10 |
0,19 |
0,68 |
North Macedonia |
0 |
0 |
0,07 |
0,33 |
Sweden |
0 |
0 |
0,22 |
0,01 |
Kosovo |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0,19 |
Belarus |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Northern Ireland |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Bulgaria |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Faroe Islands |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Lithuania |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Latvia |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cyprus |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Andorra |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Gibraltar |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Liechtenstein |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Malta |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
San Marino |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
About me:
Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.
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