Sunday, October 1, 2023

FIFA ranking: October 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable October 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday October 26th. In the upcoming October window matches for the following tournaments will be played:

- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage continues with match days 3 and 4. In league A these are already the final group matches. Numbers 1 and 2 in both groups will continue to the new quarter finals in November against one of the four CONCACAF top seeds;

- match days 7 and 8 of qualification for EURO 2024;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026: match days 3 and 4 in the South American group and the first round home-and-away play-offs in Asia;

- lots of friendlies, most involving African and Asian teams, some also in tournaments like the Melanesian Cup and the Merdeka tournament in Malaysia.

- the postponed qualifier between Morocco and Liberia for the African Cup of Nations 2023. Morocco is already qualified. The draw for this tournament in January 2024 in Cote d'Ivoire will be staged on October 12th.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 154 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 176 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Oct.

team

pts Oct.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1861,50

0

10,09

2

Brazil

1849,20

1

11,59

3

France

1840,69

-1

-0,07

4

England

1795,38

0

1,04

5

Belgium

1793,95

0

1,31

6

Croatia

1761,39

0

13,56

7

Netherlands

1751,32

0

8,17

8

Portugal

1739,83

0

11,25

9

Italy

1730,31

0

2,94

10

Spain

1725,97

0

15,25

11

USA

1680,85

0

2,14

12

Mexico

1663,90

0

2,44

13

Morocco

1663,49

0

5,17

14

Switzerland

1663,36

0

9,25

15

Colombia

1638,82

1

9,22

16

Germany

1638,54

-1

0,64

17

Japan

1612,99

2

7,79

18

Denmark

1612,15

0

5,31

19

Uruguay

1606,73

-2

-19,79

20

Senegal

1600,86

0

3,85

21

Iran

1563,85

0

2,59

22

Ukraine

1549,33

2

10,91

23

Austria

1547,37

2

10,01

24

Peru

1544,86

-2

-7,05

25

Korea Republic

1540,32

1

7,31

26

Hungary

1534,10

6

16,37

27

Sweden

1533,02

-4

-5,82

28

Poland

1531,78

2

7,17

29

Australia

1531,25

-2

-0,47

30

Serbia

1525,40

-2

-4,09

31

Tunisia

1516,14

-2

-9,09

32

Czech Republic

1514,37

5

13,93

33

Algeria

1512,90

1

3,40

34

Scotland

1512,26

-3

-10,41

35

Egypt

1511,95

0

3,02

36

Ecuador

1508,59

2

10,93

37

Wales

1504,19

-4

-6,33

38

Russia

1497,85

1

2,32

39

Chile

1491,31

-3

-13,45

40

Nigeria

1490,48

0

1,62

41

Turkey

1473,50

1

-1,90

42

Cameroon

1471,74

-1

-3,86

43

Norway

1469,56

0

-1,32

44

Panama

1461,17

1

8,92

45

Romania

1458,86

2

10,84

46

Canada

1454,95

-2

-3,63

47

Costa Rica

1452,10

-1

0

48

Slovakia

1445,07

0

2,23

49

Mali

1444,75

0

3,03

50

Cote d'Ivoire

1439,27

0

1,38

51

Paraguay

1436,96

1

4,88

52

Venezuela

1433,17

1

10,34

53

Greece

1430,90

-2

-6,36

54

Slovenia

1428,10

5

23,38

55

Republic of Ireland

1419,33

0

3,01

56

Jamaica

1413,99

0

0,26

57

Saudi Arabia

1413,85

0

1,03

58

Finland

1413,46

-4

-4,97

59

Burkina Faso

1407,38

-1

-1,49

60

Qatar

1395,11

1

-0,46

61

Ghana

1394,77

-1

-5,23

62

Albania

1372,29

0

-5,18

63

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1368,30

0

-2,07

64

South Africa

1366,25

1

-2,00

65

Congo DR

1366,18

-1

-3,41

66

Iceland

1365,54

1

13,61

67

North Macedonia

1358,64

-1

-4,31

68

Iraq

1350,35

1

2,97

69

United Arab Emirates

1348,87

1

6,44

70

Montenegro

1344,30

-2

-5,04

71

Oman

1334,37

2

0

72

Cape Verde Islands

1333,89

-1

-3,40

73

Uzbekistan

1332,20

2

3,85

74

Israel

1327,36

-2

-8,98

75

Northern Ireland

1325,06

-1

-8,14

76

Honduras

1312,42

1

6,64

77

Georgia

1312,14

2

12,82

78

El Salvador

1307,00

-2

0

79

Bulgaria

1303,66

-1

2,92

80

China PR

1302,03

0

4,78

81

Guinea

1293,11

0

0

82

Zambia

1286,63

0

-3,01

83

Jordan

1283,78

1

-2,58

84

Bahrain

1281,46

2

7,92

85

Haiti

1277,40

2

6,64

86

Bolivia

1271,09

-3

-16,77

87

Gabon

1270,55

1

0

88

Armenia

1259,02

3

4,55

89

Uganda

1256,65

0

-3,32

90

Luxembourg

1254,44

-5

-19,11

91

Curacao

1254,01

-1

-5,39

92

Equatorial Guinea

1250,46

0

1,48

93

Syria

1245,81

0

0

94

Benin

1245,44

0

0

95

Vietnam

1232,13

0

-11,01

96

Palestine

1227,48

1

3,43

97

Kyrgyzstan

1224,03

-1

-4,57

98

Trinidad and Tobago

1217,54

0

0,30

99

Mauritania

1207,39

0

0

100

India

1198,69

2

-6,19

101

New Zealand

1198,41

3

-0,63

102

Lebanon

1198,25

-1

-7,31

103

Guatemala

1196,34

0

-3,84

104

Kazakhstan

1194,65

-4

-12,29

105

Kosovo

1194,02

6

12,11

106

Guinea-Bissau

1190,76

0

-0,12

107

Congo

1189,90

0

0

108

Estonia

1189,10

7

16,85

109

Madagascar

1187,80

-1

0

110

Belarus

1187,73

-5

-10,49

111

Tajikistan

1186,05

-1

3,04

112

Kenya

1181,82

-3

-2,32

113

Mozambique

1176,80

0

-2,23

114

Namibia

1172,41

0

0

115

Thailand

1172,39

-3

-8,82

116

Korea DPR

1169,96

0

0

117

Angola

1169,54

0

1,84

118

Gambia

1160,55

0

0

119

Togo

1158,24

0

0

120

Tanzania

1146,46

2

0

121

Malawi

1144,29

2

0

122

Sierra Leone

1144,16

2

0

123

Cyprus

1141,27

-3

-14,68

124

Zimbabwe

1138,14

1

-0,42

125

Libya

1133,60

1

0

126

Azerbaijan

1131,45

-5

-16,24

127

Central African Republic

1126,72

0

0

128

Niger

1120,01

0

0

129

Comoros

1118,62

0

0

130

Sudan

1109,22

0

0

131

Malaysia

1102,12

3

7,22

132

Solomon Islands

1100,16

1

2,55

133

Nicaragua

1099,70

5

10,68

134

Faroe Islands

1098,01

-3

-8,51

135

Antigua and Barbuda

1097,57

2

8,27

136

Philippines

1095,94

-4

-3,35

137

Kuwait

1090,60

-2

-2,78

138

Rwanda

1087,03

1

0

139

Turkmenistan

1086,12

1

0

140

Burundi

1080,43

1

0

141

Latvia

1076,70

-5

-13,29

142

Ethiopia

1072,54

0

0

143

Hong Kong

1070,01

5

17,75

144

Indonesia

1069,82

3

16,95

145

Suriname

1064,45

0

1,39

146

Eswatini

1063,30

-2

-2,39

147

Lithuania

1061,28

-4

-10,93

148

St. Kitts and Nevis

1058,06

-2

0

149

Botswana

1052,35

0

1,66

150

Liberia

1045,69

0

-2,16

151

Dominican Republic

1041,74

0

5,63

152

Chinese Taipei

1040,70

2

17,04

153

Yemen

1036,09

3

15,72

154

Lesotho

1034,18

-2

0

155

Afghanistan

1033,80

3

19,55

156

Singapore

1032,89

1

16,42

157

Maldives

1027,92

-2

6,07

158

Myanmar

1024,23

3

19,77

159

Andorra

1011,84

-6

-12,74

160

Moldova

1005,95

-1

-4,15

161

New Caledonia

1004,02

2

8,44

162

Papua New Guinea

1003,49

0

0,21

163

Guyana

1002,34

2

7,89

164

Puerto Rico

1000,34

-4

-7,89

165

Tahiti

995,11

-1

0

166

St. Lucia

987,66

0

0

167

South Sudan

986,56

0

0

168

Fiji

980,48

2

0

169

Nepal

975,73

6

21,88

170

Vanuatu

975,23

-2

-11,21

171

Cuba

974,52

-2

-6,63

172

Malta

968,25

-1

-3,77

173

Bermuda

965,24

1

6,76

174

Barbados

964,27

-2

-5,64

175

Cambodia

955,89

2

7,25

176

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

953,60

0

0

177

Grenada

950,88

-4

-8,29

178

Mauritius

942,64

0

0

179

Chad

930,22

2

0

180

Montserrat

929,20

-1

-10,68

181

Belize

925,67

-1

-6,77

182

Dominica

917,42

0

6,09

183

Cook Islands

899,33

4

0

184

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

897,69

4

0

185

Bangladesh

894,41

4

0,18

186

Djibouti

889,20

4

0

187

Mongolia

889,16

-4

-19,55

188

Bhutan

888,02

-4

-17,76

189

Macau

884,12

-4

-19,77

190

Laos

877,71

-4

-21,87

191

Brunei Darussalam

870,63

0

-16,95

192

Aruba

865,40

1

6,90

193

Cayman Islands

858,50

3

6,91

194

Somalia

854,72

0

0

195

Seychelles

853,50

0

0

196

Pakistan

846,66

1

-1,01

197

Timor-Leste

843,40

-5

-17,05

198

Gibraltar

842,18

0

-3,22

199

Liechtenstein

837,73

0

-5,90

200

Bahamas

833,56

0

-8,28

201

Turks and Caicos Islands

832,16

2

7,23

202

Guam

821,91

-1

-16,42

203

Sri Lanka

809,53

-1

-15,72

204

US Virgin Islands

803,40

0

-13,81

205

British Virgin Islands

798,80

0

-13,32

206

Anguilla

785,69

0

0

207

San Marino

746,98

0

-3,29



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

9 comments:

  1. Hello. Is it theoretically possible to get negative FIFA rankings?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes, in theory that's possible. Though with the current ratings of San Marino and the number of points lost with each defeat decreasing because of the ever growing rating-gaps with all other stronger teams, it is a very theoretical possibility.
    And... if San Marino at that stage of their rating only manages one draw, this will give them already a massive points haul to repair their rating significantly with only one match :)

    ReplyDelete
  3. As Malaysian, ranking 131 will be the highest position for Malaysia in 17 years. 127 was the last time Malaysia in Top 130 position (May 2006)
    https://web.archive.org/web/20061121141338mp_/http://www.fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,All-May-2006,00.html.
    After World Cup 2006 Malaysia never reached this position. So this is very interesting time for Malaysian football.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The reason for such Ranking of your team is that Malaysia is focused on winning at their at any cost. The recent Merdeka Cup showed how horribly the referees supported them in front of the home crowd. This way Malaysia can go nowhere except in home matches

      Delete
    2. All teams want to win to increase their ranking. Nothing wrong with that. India would do the same thing.

      Delete
  4. Dear Ed,
    I have an idea to compile a List of top players like Messi, Ronaldo, Neymar, Leewa and others who have over 60 international goals who have scored against their opponents. The formulation should be (Summation of Opposition Ranking on that day /total no.of goals). This would give a clear idea of level of goals scored in international matches

    ReplyDelete
  5. Nice idea, but what do you want from me ? I'm not interested in (top-)players, except when I see them play. I don't have any statistical information about football players.
    I could provide the ranking points for matches, of course. Is that what you're asking (because I don't see a question, just a statement)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry for improper question framing. Yes I want you to publish a list of the international players having more than 50 international goals with the above mentioned criterion. I could have done it by my own but I want you to dig the numbers since a) you can get the ranking points of the matches on that particular date and b) you have great fan following who might be interested in the list. Please do a one for me. I have been following this blog for past 7-8 years

      Delete
  6. Okay, I see.

    There are a few issues when compiling a complete list with all international top scorers with 60 goals or more, weighed with the opponents FIFA rating points:
    - FIFA rating points are only available since August 1993. Famous top scorers like Pele, Puskas and Dahari played decades earlier.
    - the magnitude of the FIFA rating varies, given calculation adaptations in 2002, 2006 and 2018. For a fair comparison the ratings should be normalized, which could prove tricky.

    To encounter these problems I would suggest to use the elo-ratings. These are available for each country since their first international match, the calculation method has never been adapted and a team's rating adapts automatically after each match.

    OK, I will give it a try, but I will have to find the time for this exercise, so I don't know when exactly I can come up with a result. So bear with me, I will write a separate post about it.
    Thanks for the interesting idea !

    ReplyDelete