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Saturday, November 4, 2023

FIFA ranking: November 2023 probable ranking

Here is the probable November 2023 ranking, to be published on Thursday November 30th. In the upcoming November window matches for the following tournaments will be played:


- the CONCACAF Nations League 2024 group stage in leagues B and C plays to a finish with match days 5 and 6. In league A the home-and-away quarter finals are scheduled. The winners qualify for the CNL Final Four in March 2024 and the Copa America 2024 next Summer. The 4 losers go to two one-off play-offs in March 2024 to determine the final two CONCACAF participants in the Copa America. For ranking calculation purposes I expect the new quarter final matches to have an I-factor of 25, same as the CNL Final Four matches;

- the qualification for EURO 2024 plays to a finish with match days 9 and 10. Both postponed matches of Israel from the October window are scheduled early in the November window;

- qualification for the World Cup 2026 continues with match days 5 and 6 in the South American group. Asia and Africa start with their group stage, playing match days 1 and 2. Eritrea seems to have withdrawn at the last moment. Fearing new bad publicity with players defecting after away matches they've chosen to not participate in the 10-match group stage. As a consequence they won't be ranked in the FIFA ranking in the foreseeable future;

- for the Pacific Games in Honiara on the Solomon Islands the 12 participants are drawn in 4 groups of 3 teams. The match schedule is not yet published. I've assumed a schedule to be able to incorporate the group stage matches in this ranking preview. The 3 OFC teams that were excluded in July from the FIFA ranking (Samoa, American Samoa and Tonga) will participate, so they will be ranked again in the November ranking.

- with all confederations in full swing very few friendlies are scheduled for this window.


This preview is calculated with elo-predicted results for all 186 currently played and scheduled and according to my method included matches, out of a total of 198 currently played and scheduled matches. See the probable results for a list of which scheduled matches are currently included.


pos Nov.

team

pts Nov.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1867,40

0

6,11

2

France

1857,94

0

4,83

3

England

1812,55

1

4,67

4

Brazil

1809,39

-1

-2,81

5

Belgium

1798,28

0

4,57

6

Netherlands

1745,48

1

6,22

7

Portugal

1745,06

-1

5,23

8

Spain

1732,64

0

6,67

9

Italy

1731,32

0

13,51

10

Croatia

1717,43

0

5,55

11

USA

1683,15

0

7,26

12

Mexico

1673,86

0

9,92

13

Switzerland

1662,55

1

17,17

14

Morocco

1661,69

-1

3,20

15

Germany

1646,13

1

2,64

16

Uruguay

1641,00

-1

-2,72

17

Colombia

1638,70

0

12,10

18

Denmark

1626,31

1

14,16

19

Japan

1620,00

-1

7,01

20

Senegal

1606,97

0

6,15

21

Iran

1577,58

0

10,28

22

Sweden

1554,83

1

9,07

23

Korea Republic

1550,41

1

10,06

24

Peru

1549,59

2

17,02

25

Austria

1541,19

0

5,78

26

Ukraine

1540,85

-4

-8,48

27

Australia

1539,43

0

8,18

28

Hungary

1537,36

2

15,46

29

Wales

1533,84

-1

5,15

30

Serbia

1529,68

-1

4,28

31

Tunisia

1523,05

1

6,91

32

Poland

1520,24

-1

0,96

33

Algeria

1519,85

0

6,95

34

Ecuador

1519,50

2

11,19

35

Scotland

1519,39

-1

7,05

36

Egypt

1518,91

-1

6,96

37

Chile

1502,02

0

-1,79

38

Nigeria

1499,24

2

8,76

39

Russia

1497,63

0

0

40

Turkey

1495,81

-2

-2,69

41

Czech Republic

1493,89

0

4,17

42

Cameroon

1475,36

1

8,38

43

Panama

1473,17

1

12,08

44

Canada

1465,95

1

11,00

45

Norway

1459,86

-3

-9,70

46

Mali

1458,30

1

8,55

47

Slovakia

1453,52

3

8,18

48

Cote d'Ivoire

1448,10

4

8,92

49

Greece

1441,45

2

-1,51

50

Costa Rica

1440,02

-4

-12,08

51

Venezuela

1436,86

-2

-8,81

52

Romania

1436,01

-4

-10,51

53

Slovenia

1427,84

1

-0,26

54

Burkina Faso

1423,30

2

12,71

55

Paraguay

1418,23

-2

-18,73

56

Jamaica

1411,84

-1

-9,55

57

Ghana

1408,96

3

14,22

58

Albania

1407,47

1

10,64

59

Qatar

1406,78

2

12,62

60

Republic of Ireland

1404,60

-2

-2,34

61

Finland

1401,31

1

12,85

62

Saudi Arabia

1396,35

-5

-12,50

63

South Africa

1382,08

1

15,73

64

Congo DR

1381,44

1

15,26

65

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1368,03

-2

-0,27

66

Iraq

1365,98

2

16,25

67

Oman

1349,89

5

15,52

68

North Macedonia

1349,67

-2

-8,74

69

Montenegro

1342,91

1

-1,39

70

Cape Verde Islands

1342,30

4

15,37

71

United Arab Emirates

1339,46

-2

-9,41

72

Iceland

1338,39

-5

-14,78

73

Israel

1335,52

-2

-0,82

74

Uzbekistan

1332,76

-1

-0,33

75

Georgia

1312,45

1

0,31

76

Jordan

1309,84

6

25,45

77

Zambia

1309,56

4

18,22

78

Northern Ireland

1308,17

-3

-16,89

79

El Salvador

1307,00

-2

0

80

Bahrain

1302,29

3

20,83

81

Honduras

1295,15

-3

-9,92

82

Guinea

1290,74

-2

-6,15

83

Gabon

1289,00

3

18,20

84

China PR

1287,23

-5

-9,76

85

Luxembourg

1273,07

2

6,40

86

Equatorial Guinea

1268,68

5

18,22

87

Bulgaria

1265,15

-3

-13,97

88

Haiti

1262,50

0

0

89

Curacao

1261,62

0

0

90

Bolivia

1259,55

-5

-11,54

91

Uganda

1257,40

-1

5,46

92

Benin

1237,34

1

-1,55

93

Vietnam

1235,58

1

-0,67

94

Syria

1232,96

-2

-6,41

95

Palestine

1229,88

1

5,83

96

Armenia

1224,80

-1

-9,45

97

Kazakhstan

1215,16

1

-4,49

98

Trinidad and Tobago

1210,17

1

-7,26

99

Mauritania

1207,75

2

-1,24

100

Belarus

1207,21

0

-5,31

101

Kosovo

1203,68

4

12,94

102

Kyrgyzstan

1199,14

-5

-24,89

103

Lebanon

1192,81

1

-5,44

104

New Zealand

1192,47

-1

-5,94

105

Thailand

1188,97

7

11,82

106

Madagascar

1187,63

2

-0,94

107

Guatemala

1187,48

0

-1,45

108

Guinea-Bissau

1185,55

2

-1,30

109

Tajikistan

1182,78

0

-4,45

110

Kenya

1181,92

0

-4,93

111

Korea DPR

1180,34

4

10,38

112

Congo

1179,80

-6

-10,10

113

India

1176,32

-11

-22,52

114

Namibia

1168,38

0

-4,03

115

Angola

1168,30

1

-1,34

116

Togo

1165,58

3

7,34

117

Gambia

1164,61

0

4,06

118

Mozambique

1156,12

-5

-20,46

119

Tanzania

1155,19

2

8,73

120

Estonia

1150,07

-2

-9,26

121

Azerbaijan

1149,40

-1

-6,51

122

Sierra Leone

1138,53

0

-6,59

123

Cyprus

1138,42

1

-2,85

124

Malawi

1137,09

-1

-7,20

125

Zimbabwe

1132,26

0

-6,30

126

Libya

1130,44

0

-7,20

127

Malaysia

1122,87

10

26,15

128

Kuwait

1122,48

8

25,43

129

Central African Republic

1121,13

-2

-5,59

130

Comoros

1119,18

-2

-6,39

131

Solomon Islands

1112,20

0

4,59

132

Nicaragua

1111,97

1

12,27

133

Niger

1102,75

-4

-20,06

134

Latvia

1097,84

-2

-3,86

135

Lithuania

1091,93

-1

-6,55

136

Sudan

1091,47

-6

-17,75

137

Faroe Islands

1089,82

-2

-7,84

138

Rwanda

1082,04

2

-4,99

139

Antigua and Barbuda

1080,13

0

-9,94

140

Turkmenistan

1078,25

1

-7,87

141

Indonesia

1076,51

4

6,69

142

Botswana

1076,28

6

20,43

143

Philippines

1073,67

-5

-22,27

144

Suriname

1071,85

0

0

145

Ethiopia

1068,99

-2

-3,55

146

Burundi

1062,14

-4

-18,29

147

Eswatini

1058,38

-1

-4,75

148

St. Kitts and Nevis

1057,05

-1

-1,01

149

Dominican Republic

1048,06

0

-0,97

150

Hong Kong

1042,93

0

-2,08

151

Liberia

1036,36

0

-5,14

152

Chinese Taipei

1023,93

0

-16,77

153

Guyana

1023,33

7

13,71

154

Lesotho

1022,53

-1

-11,65

155

Singapore

1020,78

0

-12,11

156

Afghanistan

1018,26

-2

-15,54

157

Yemen

1015,44

-1

-8,15

158

Moldova

1010,25

-1

-8,20

159

New Caledonia

1006,75

3

7,73

160

Maldives

1003,48

1

0

161

Myanmar

1000,74

-3

-10,99

162

Puerto Rico

999,72

2

6,67

163

Andorra

998,21

-4

-13,47

164

Tahiti

994,97

-1

-0,14

165

Papua New Guinea

990,99

0

-0,05

166

St. Lucia

988,67

0

1,01

167

Vanuatu

985,28

1

0,05

168

Cuba

981,87

1

0

169

Fiji

980,62

1

0,14

170

South Sudan

976,79

-3

-9,77

171

Bermuda

972,36

1

7,34

172

Malta

967,29

-1

-0,96

173

Nepal

960,55

0

-3,27

174

Grenada

950,99

2

0

175

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

945,97

0

-7,63

176

Barbados

943,59

-2

-13,40

177

Mauritius

932,20

0

-10,44

178

Cambodia

931,47

0

0

179

Montserrat

931,30

1

2,10

180

Belize

926,18

1

0,29

181

Dominica

922,25

3

12,33

182

Chad

920,37

-3

-9,85

183

Bhutan

913,02

-1

0

184

Bangladesh

904,03

-1

-8,57

185

Cook Islands

897,59

0

-1,74

186

Macau

896,62

1

0

187

Samoa

896,28

-

2,02

188

American Samoa

893,67

-

-6,60

189

Laos

889,62

-1

0

190

Mongolia

889,16

0

0

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

888,94

-5

-8,75

192

Djibouti

880,96

-3

-8,24

193

Aruba

879,32

-1

13,92

194

Brunei Darussalam

870,63

-3

0

195

Pakistan

856,33

-2

-8,51

196

Tonga

855,81

-

-6,00

197

Cayman Islands

851,19

-3

-7,31

198

Somalia

845,84

-2

-6,22

199

Seychelles

845,53

-4

-7,97

200

Timor-Leste

843,40

-3

0

201

Gibraltar

840,80

-3

-1,27

202

Liechtenstein

832,85

-2

-4,76

203

Bahamas

830,62

-4

-10,44

204

Sri Lanka

822,03

-2

0

205

Guam

821,91

-2

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

818,57

-5

-6,20

207

British Virgin Islands

807,57

-3

-6,13

208

US Virgin Islands

796,78

-3

-6,62

209

Anguilla

785,69

-3

0

210

San Marino

741,61

-3

-5,37



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

15 comments:

  1. Do you know how many points will the new FIFA member get?*

    *if one suddenly appears

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't know the starting points for FIFA Women's World Ranking in 2003
      Women's World Ranking Procedures:
      The ranking of a team is deemed official when they have played at least five matches against teams with an official ranking.

      some examples
      Montenegro women's national football team played first match on 13 March 2012, the team entered the FIFA Women’s World Ranking for the first time in june 2013
      https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/women?dateId=ranking_20130621
      Total Points 1258, Previous Points 1154,

      Kosovo women's national football team played first match on 1 March 2017, the team entered the FIFA Women’s World Ranking for the first time in june 2017
      https://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/women?dateId=ranking_20170623
      Total Points 1015, Previous Points 1168,

      I don't know how to get the Previous Points for new FIFA members'(after 2003) women team.
      for new FIFA members'(after 2018) men team, 868 (the lowest starting points in August 2018) or the lowest starting points of some Confederation's team ?

      Delete
    2. I don't know, FIFA has of course never said anything about such a case for the men's ranking.

      But I expect that, like a completely new team introduced in the elo ranking, their starting points will be a knowledgeable estimate and not per definition f.i. the lowest teams points in a confederation or the lowest rating in 2018. Because that would be a gross underestimation of the strength, if for example (I know, farfetched) Catalunya would be introduced in the FIFA ranking.

      Delete
  2. Morocco v Eritrea , Eritrea v Congo World Cup qualification , Eritrea will be ranked again

    ReplyDelete
  3. My source is this.
    What's your source ? If you don't have a source, then please, don't comment such nonsense as facts.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Where did u get the news about Eritrea, Ed? I've googled it and I ended up finding nothing but the fact that Eritrea will be partaking as planned

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Ohh sorry I didn't read your comment earlier, Ed. Btw thanks!

      Delete
  5. Just a heads-up about the quarter finals in CNL: in the preview above I wanted to treat those matches exactly the same as the CNL Final Four matches, so with I=25 and as a knock-out match, so teams can't lose points because of the match.
    By mistake in above preview I calculated the quarter final legs with I=25 but not as a knock-out match, so teams still lose points.

    As it is not known how FIFA will handle these new quarter finals anyway, I won't correct my 'mistake' and decided to just wait what FIFA will do.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It seems like FIFA could clear up so much misunderstanding around issues like this with just 1 intern and some blog posts, but they clearly don't seem to want to. Alas.

      Delete
    2. FIFA simply has made a, I have to admit reasonably detailed, base description of their new calculation method in 2018 and all infrequent occurring exceptions (like how to handle the match that was first included and afterwards in another month excluded for whatever reason from the calculations) and additions (like the introduction of a completely new team or in this case of a new type of match) on that description are just never added anymore . We'll just have to figure it out ourselves.

      Like I said, it could be much worse (see the 'description' of the calculation of the CONCACAF ranking for instance) but FIFA just has no benefit from being transparent about these kind of things.
      It's like their World Cup regulations where all the commercial things are described and regulated in great detail but the competition system and seeding system are described in vague terms only, with almost all decision responsibility placed 'outside' the regulations in the hands of the organizing committee (read: FIFA itself).

      Delete
    3. >CONCACAF "detailed" description
      Can you answer for my November 5 e-mail please? Maybe it will be possible to know a bit more.

      Delete
    4. Thank you for reply, sorry for answer in this blog.
      I am from Russia, my country is in a could war with NATO/EU (till at least military operation ending), so I'm afraid that Hypercube will ignore my request (I asked all NAFU federations. No answer. Then I asked all NAFU top leagues. No answer). You are from Netherlands, so I think you have more chance. That's why I'm asking you (maybe not for free) to ask Hypercube.
      Questions

      Delete
  6. My only guess is that the CONCACAF rankings is calculated something like this.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Good chance Argies loss no spot after Uruguay defeat if we assume they lose draw against Brazil. I’m hoping my Uruguay get up to 13

    ReplyDelete
  8. I meant argies loss “top” spot

    ReplyDelete