African Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. To kick off a series of simulation reports I start with Africa.

The African Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Ivory Coast. Much to the delight of several European top clubs, who otherwise would miss quite a few African top players from mid December to mid February during an important part of their domestic competition, CAF had already in 2019 decided to schedule the AFCON from that moment on in June instead of the usual month of January. 

However, with assigning the tournament to a tropical country (again), it became clear very soon that, just like the previous edition in Cameroon, the continental showpiece in 2023 had to be moved back to January 2024 due to unfavorable climatic conditions in the tropical Summer. Conditions really nobody could foresee...

Anyway, the African continental showpiece kicks off on Saturday January 13th and lasts until the final on Sunday February 11th. It has the same format as the AFCON 2021 with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 teams and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.

The complete tournament schedule is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.

First the group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:

group A	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Cote d'Ivoire	58,10	26,92	11,78	3,20	1,60
Nigeria	23,83	34,51	25,00	16,66	2,34
Equatorial Guinea	13,07	25,44	36,84	24,65	2,73
Guinea-Bissau	5,00	13,13	26,38	55,49	3,32
group B	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Egypt	53,54	29,30	13,57	3,59	1,67
Ghana	27,22	33,87	24,81	14,10	2,26
Cape Verde Islands	15,03	25,76	37,88	21,33	2,66
Mozambique	4,21	11,07	23,74	60,98	3,41
group C	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Senegal	65,96	24,41	7,01	2,62	1,46
Cameroon	25,62	42,86	22,82	8,70	2,15
Guinea	4,94	17,05	32,71	45,30	3,18
Gambia	3,48	15,68	37,46	43,38	3,21
group D	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Algeria	63,30	26,80	7,96	1,94	1,49
Burkina Faso	26,77	41,16	20,49	11,58	2,17
Mauritania	5,25	16,76	39,99	38,00	3,11
Angola	4,68	15,28	31,56	48,48	3,24
group E	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Tunisia	64,20	24,05	9,07	2,68	1,50
Mali	23,74	40,11	24,99	11,16	2,24
South Africa	9,26	23,61	33,60	33,53	2,91
Namibia	2,80	12,23	32,34	52,63	3,35
group F	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	avg
Morocco	88,25	9,50	2,05	0,20	1,14
Zambia	5,43	39,69	29,54	25,34	2,75
Congo DR	5,38	35,32	36,02	23,28	2,77
Tanzania	0,94	15,49	32,39	51,18	3,34

Then the knock-out stage, starting with the Round of 16. You see per team the probability to qualify directly as number one or two of the group (column q_nr1_2) or as one of the 4 best group numbers three (in column q_nr3). The teams are ordered by the last column containing the total probability to qualify for the knock-out stage.

team	q_nr1_2	q_nr3	Q_tot
Morocco	97,75	1,96	99,71
Algeria	90,10	7,29	97,39
Senegal	90,37	6,13	96,50
Tunisia	88,25	7,88	96,13
Cote d'Ivoire	85,02	10,17	95,19
Egypt	82,84	12,06	94,90
Cameroon	68,48	18,16	86,64
Mali	63,85	20,63	84,48
Burkina Faso	67,93	14,76	82,69
Ghana	61,09	17,53	78,62
Nigeria	58,34	17,72	76,06
Congo DR	40,70	25,07	65,77
Cape Verde Islands	40,79	24,88	65,67
Zambia	45,12	20,41	65,53
Equatorial Guinea	38,51	23,67	62,18
South Africa	32,87	25,06	57,93
Guinea	21,99	22,16	44,15
Mauritania	22,01	22,12	44,13
Angola	19,96	22,15	42,11
Gambia	19,16	18,25	37,41
Guinea-Bissau	18,13	18,85	36,98
Mozambique	15,28	16,10	31,38
Namibia	15,03	15,69	30,72
Tanzania	16,43	11,30	27,73

The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.

team	QF
Morocco	79,10		[79,33]
Cote d'Ivoire	71,09		[74,68]
Senegal	70,69		[73,25]
Algeria	66,84		[68,63]
Egypt	65,46		[68,98]
Tunisia	60,01		[62,43]
Cameroon	47,28		[54,57]
Nigeria	40,79		[53,63]
Ghana	40,10		[51,00]
Burkina Faso	35,04		[42,38]
Mali	33,18		[39,28]
Equatorial Guinea	26,05		[41,89]
Cape Verde Islands	25,59		[38,97]
Zambia	25,18		[38,43]
Congo DR	25,04		[38,07]
South Africa	15,06		[26,00]
Guinea	12,84		[29,08]
Guinea-Bissau	11,96		[32,34]
Gambia	10,10		[27,00]
Mauritania	9,94		[22,52]
Angola	8,97		[21,30]
Mozambique	7,92		[25,24]
Tanzania	6,81		[24,56]
Namibia	4,96		[16,15]

The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.

team	SF
Morocco	59,51		[75,23]
Cote d'Ivoire	48,34		[68,00]
Algeria	40,82		[61,07]
Senegal	40,04		[56,64]
Tunisia	37,22		[62,02]
Egypt	28,76		[43,94]
Cameroon	22,90		[48,43]
Nigeria	19,33		[47,39]
Mali	16,57		[49,94]
Burkina Faso	14,52		[41,44]
Ghana	13,31		[33,19]
Equatorial Guinea	9,82		[37,70]
Congo DR	9,17		[36,62]
Zambia	8,01		[31,81]
Cape Verde Islands	7,26		[28,37]
South Africa	5,48		[36,39]
Guinea	3,79		[29,52]
Guinea-Bissau	3,17		[26,51]
Gambia	2,84		[28,12]
Mauritania	2,32		[23,34]
Angola	2,17		[24,19]
Mozambique	1,69		[21,34]
Tanzania	1,57		[23,05]
Namibia	1,39		[28,02]

The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.

team	Final
Morocco	42,21		[70,93]
Cote d'Ivoire	28,03		[57,99]
Senegal	22,41		[55,97]
Tunisia	21,79		[58,54]
Algeria	19,81		[48,53]
Egypt	15,39		[53,51]
Cameroon	9,08		[39,65]
Mali	7,23		[43,63]
Nigeria	7,20		[37,25]
Burkina Faso	5,22		[35,95]
Ghana	5,07		[38,09]
Equatorial Guinea	3,01		[30,65]
Congo DR	2,79		[30,43]
Zambia	2,30		[28,71]
Cape Verde Islands	2,23		[30,72]
South Africa	1,88		[34,31]
Guinea	0,98		[25,86]
Guinea-Bissau	0,80		[25,24]
Gambia	0,65		[22,89]
Mauritania	0,54		[23,28]
Angola	0,45		[20,74]
Mozambique	0,43		[25,44]
Namibia	0,29		[20,86]
Tanzania	0,21		[13,38]

The probability to win the Africa Cup of Nations 2024. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final. As this tournament as usual also has a play-off for third place, the probability to win that play-off match is also given in the last column.

team	Winner			3rd
Morocco	27,39	[64,89]		12,01
Cote d'Ivoire	15,53	[55,40]		12,77
Senegal	11,17	[49,84]		10,44
Tunisia	10,79	[49,52]		9,09
Algeria	10,33	[52,15]		12,29
Egypt	7,28	[47,30]		7,06
Cameroon	4,00	[44,05]		6,39
Mali	2,88	[39,83]		4,36
Nigeria	2,72	[37,78]		5,18
Burkina Faso	1,83	[35,06]		3,93
Ghana	1,76	[34,71]		3,19
Equatorial Guinea	1,02	[33,89]		2,50
Congo DR	0,72	[25,81]		2,23
Zambia	0,63	[27,39]		1,83
Cape Verde Islands	0,60	[26,91]		1,61
South Africa	0,49	[26,06]		1,14
Guinea	0,25	[25,51]		0,85
Guinea-Bissau	0,19	[23,75]		0,70
Gambia	0,16	[24,62]		0,52
Mauritania	0,09	[16,67]		0,50
Mozambique	0,07	[16,28]		0,31
Angola	0,06	[13,33]		0,56
Namibia	0,03	[10,34]		0,24
Tanzania	0,01	[04,76]		0,30

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Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.