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Monday, December 4, 2023

African Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. To kick off a series of simulation reports I start with Africa.


The African Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Ivory Coast. Much to the delight of several European top clubs, who otherwise would miss quite a few African top players from mid December to mid February during an important part of their domestic competition, CAF had already in 2019 decided to schedule the AFCON from that moment on in June instead of the usual month of January. 

However, with assigning the tournament to a tropical country (again), it became clear very soon that, just like the previous edition in Cameroon, the continental showpiece in 2023 had to be moved back to January 2024 due to unfavorable climatic conditions in the tropical Summer. Conditions really nobody could foresee...


Anyway, the African continental showpiece kicks off on Saturday January 13th and lasts until the final on Sunday February 11th. It has the same format as the AFCON 2021 with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 teams and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.


The complete tournament schedule is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First the group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Cote d'Ivoire

58,10

26,92

11,78

3,20

1,60

Nigeria

23,83

34,51

25,00

16,66

2,34

Equatorial Guinea

13,07

25,44

36,84

24,65

2,73

Guinea-Bissau

5,00

13,13

26,38

55,49

3,32

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Egypt

53,54

29,30

13,57

3,59

1,67

Ghana

27,22

33,87

24,81

14,10

2,26

Cape Verde Islands

15,03

25,76

37,88

21,33

2,66

Mozambique

4,21

11,07

23,74

60,98

3,41

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Senegal

65,96

24,41

7,01

2,62

1,46

Cameroon

25,62

42,86

22,82

8,70

2,15

Guinea

4,94

17,05

32,71

45,30

3,18

Gambia

3,48

15,68

37,46

43,38

3,21

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Algeria

63,30

26,80

7,96

1,94

1,49

Burkina Faso

26,77

41,16

20,49

11,58

2,17

Mauritania

5,25

16,76

39,99

38,00

3,11

Angola

4,68

15,28

31,56

48,48

3,24

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Tunisia

64,20

24,05

9,07

2,68

1,50

Mali

23,74

40,11

24,99

11,16

2,24

South Africa

9,26

23,61

33,60

33,53

2,91

Namibia

2,80

12,23

32,34

52,63

3,35

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Morocco

88,25

9,50

2,05

0,20

1,14

Zambia

5,43

39,69

29,54

25,34

2,75

Congo DR

5,38

35,32

36,02

23,28

2,77

Tanzania

0,94

15,49

32,39

51,18

3,34



Then the knock-out stage, starting with the Round of 16. You see per team the probability to qualify directly as number one or two of the group (column q_nr1_2) or as one of the 4 best group numbers three (in column q_nr3). The teams are ordered by the last column containing the total probability to qualify for the knock-out stage.


team

q_nr1_2

q_nr3

Q_tot

Morocco

97,75

1,96

99,71

Algeria

90,10

7,29

97,39

Senegal

90,37

6,13

96,50

Tunisia

88,25

7,88

96,13

Cote d'Ivoire

85,02

10,17

95,19

Egypt

82,84

12,06

94,90

Cameroon

68,48

18,16

86,64

Mali

63,85

20,63

84,48

Burkina Faso

67,93

14,76

82,69

Ghana

61,09

17,53

78,62

Nigeria

58,34

17,72

76,06

Congo DR

40,70

25,07

65,77

Cape Verde Islands

40,79

24,88

65,67

Zambia

45,12

20,41

65,53

Equatorial Guinea

38,51

23,67

62,18

South Africa

32,87

25,06

57,93

Guinea

21,99

22,16

44,15

Mauritania

22,01

22,12

44,13

Angola

19,96

22,15

42,11

Gambia

19,16

18,25

37,41

Guinea-Bissau

18,13

18,85

36,98

Mozambique

15,28

16,10

31,38

Namibia

15,03

15,69

30,72

Tanzania

16,43

11,30

27,73



The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.


team

QF

Morocco

79,10

[79,33]

Cote d'Ivoire

71,09

[74,68]

Senegal

70,69

[73,25]

Algeria

66,84

[68,63]

Egypt

65,46

[68,98]

Tunisia

60,01

[62,43]

Cameroon

47,28

[54,57]

Nigeria

40,79

[53,63]

Ghana

40,10

[51,00]

Burkina Faso

35,04

[42,38]

Mali

33,18

[39,28]

Equatorial Guinea

26,05

[41,89]

Cape Verde Islands

25,59

[38,97]

Zambia

25,18

[38,43]

Congo DR

25,04

[38,07]

South Africa

15,06

[26,00]

Guinea

12,84

[29,08]

Guinea-Bissau

11,96

[32,34]

Gambia

10,10

[27,00]

Mauritania

9,94

[22,52]

Angola

8,97

[21,30]

Mozambique

7,92

[25,24]

Tanzania

6,81

[24,56]

Namibia

4,96

[16,15]



The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.


team

SF

Morocco

59,51

[75,23]

Cote d'Ivoire

48,34

[68,00]

Algeria

40,82

[61,07]

Senegal

40,04

[56,64]

Tunisia

37,22

[62,02]

Egypt

28,76

[43,94]

Cameroon

22,90

[48,43]

Nigeria

19,33

[47,39]

Mali

16,57

[49,94]

Burkina Faso

14,52

[41,44]

Ghana

13,31

[33,19]

Equatorial Guinea

9,82

[37,70]

Congo DR

9,17

[36,62]

Zambia

8,01

[31,81]

Cape Verde Islands

7,26

[28,37]

South Africa

5,48

[36,39]

Guinea

3,79

[29,52]

Guinea-Bissau

3,17

[26,51]

Gambia

2,84

[28,12]

Mauritania

2,32

[23,34]

Angola

2,17

[24,19]

Mozambique

1,69

[21,34]

Tanzania

1,57

[23,05]

Namibia

1,39

[28,02]



The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.


team

Final

Morocco

42,21

[70,93]

Cote d'Ivoire

28,03

[57,99]

Senegal

22,41

[55,97]

Tunisia

21,79

[58,54]

Algeria

19,81

[48,53]

Egypt

15,39

[53,51]

Cameroon

9,08

[39,65]

Mali

7,23

[43,63]

Nigeria

7,20

[37,25]

Burkina Faso

5,22

[35,95]

Ghana

5,07

[38,09]

Equatorial Guinea

3,01

[30,65]

Congo DR

2,79

[30,43]

Zambia

2,30

[28,71]

Cape Verde Islands

2,23

[30,72]

South Africa

1,88

[34,31]

Guinea

0,98

[25,86]

Guinea-Bissau

0,80

[25,24]

Gambia

0,65

[22,89]

Mauritania

0,54

[23,28]

Angola

0,45

[20,74]

Mozambique

0,43

[25,44]

Namibia

0,29

[20,86]

Tanzania

0,21

[13,38]



The probability to win the Africa Cup of Nations 2024. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final. As this tournament as usual also has a play-off for third place, the probability to win that play-off match is also given in the last column.


team

Winner

3rd

Morocco

27,39

[64,89]

12,01

Cote d'Ivoire

15,53

[55,40]

12,77

Senegal

11,17

[49,84]

10,44

Tunisia

10,79

[49,52]

9,09

Algeria

10,33

[52,15]

12,29

Egypt

7,28

[47,30]

7,06

Cameroon

4,00

[44,05]

6,39

Mali

2,88

[39,83]

4,36

Nigeria

2,72

[37,78]

5,18

Burkina Faso

1,83

[35,06]

3,93

Ghana

1,76

[34,71]

3,19

Equatorial Guinea

1,02

[33,89]

2,50

Congo DR

0,72

[25,81]

2,23

Zambia

0,63

[27,39]

1,83

Cape Verde Islands

0,60

[26,91]

1,61

South Africa

0,49

[26,06]

1,14

Guinea

0,25

[25,51]

0,85

Guinea-Bissau

0,19

[23,75]

0,70

Gambia

0,16

[24,62]

0,52

Mauritania

0,09

[16,67]

0,50

Mozambique

0,07

[16,28]

0,31

Angola

0,06

[13,33]

0,56

Namibia

0,03

[10,34]

0,24

Tanzania

0,01

[04,76]

0,30



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

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