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Saturday, December 9, 2023

Asian Cup of Nations 2023 simulations (December 2023)

In 2024 five of the six confederations have scheduled their continental championship for national teams. Here's number two in this series of simulation reports: Asia.


The Asian Cup of Nations 2023 was initially scheduled for June 2023 in Qatar. Just as with the World Cup last year the tournament couldn't be played in the Qatari Summer because it's much too hot there in that time of the year. So the continental showpiece had to be moved back to January 2024. That gave Qatar the opportunity to participate 'as guest' (or rather as the generous tournament sponsor who bought their berth) in the Gold Cup 2023 in the USA last July.


Anyway, the Asian continental showpiece kicks off on Friday January 12th and lasts until the final on Saturday February 10th. It has the same format as the previous edition in 2019 with 24 teams in 6 groups of 4 teams and a Round of 16 for which the 6 group numbers one and two qualify plus the 4 best group numbers three.


The complete tournament schedule is simulated. Here are the probabilities (in %) -generated over 10.000 simulations- with all match-results based on NT prediction formula's for goals scored in a match depending on elo win expectancy.


First the group stage with teams ordered by ascending average group position in the last column:


group A

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Qatar

62,14

25,48

9,88

2,50

1,53

China PR

21,75

37,39

24,93

15,93

2,35

Tajikistan

10,94

23,68

38,67

26,71

2,81

Lebanon

5,17

13,45

26,52

54,86

3,31

group B

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Australia

61,93

32,04

5,69

0,34

1,44

Uzbekistan

33,28

48,05

15,35

3,32

1,89

Syria

4,40

16,14

58,75

20,71

2,96

India

0,39

3,77

20,21

75,63

3,71

group C

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Iran

67,81

19,29

11,91

0,99

1,46

United Arab Emirates

23,21

53,82

20,33

2,64

2,02

Palestine

8,65

25,09

53,24

13,02

2,71

Hong Kong

0,33

1,80

14,52

83,35

3,81

group D

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Japan

79,84

19,15

0,98

0,03

1,21

Iraq

19,15

61,14

16,26

3,45

2,04

Vietnam

0,86

12,59

45,94

40,61

3,26

Indonesia

0,15

7,12

36,82

55,91

3,48

group E

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Korea Republic

77,57

17,75

4,23

0,45

1,28

Jordan

13,50

45,02

30,67

10,81

2,39

Bahrain

7,37

25,71

39,17

27,75

2,87

Malaysia

1,56

11,52

25,93

60,99

3,46

group F

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

avg

Saudi Arabia

44,71

34,85

15,63

4,81

1,81

Oman

40,29

31,65

20,24

7,82

1,96

Thailand

11,97

23,03

33,56

31,44

2,84

Kyrgyzstan

3,03

10,47

30,57

55,93

3,39



Then the knock-out stage, starting with the Round of 16. You see per team the probability to qualify directly as number one or two of the group (column q_nr1_2) or as one of the 4 best group numbers three (in column q_nr3). The teams are ordered by the last column containing the total probability to qualify for the knock-out stage.


team

nr 1_2

nr 3

Q_tot

Japan

98,99

0,94

99,93

Korea Republic

95,32

4,01

99,33

Australia

93,97

5,36

99,33

Iran

87,10

9,41

96,51

Qatar

87,62

8,74

96,36

United Arab Emirates

77,03

16,88

93,91

Saudi Arabia

79,56

14,21

93,77

Uzbekistan

81,33

11,84

93,17

Iraq

80,29

11,33

91,62

Oman

71,94

18,04

89,98

Jordan

58,52

21,12

79,64

China PR

59,14

18,07

77,21

Palestine

33,74

42,31

76,05

Bahrain

33,08

30,16

63,24

Thailand

35,00

25,77

60,77

Tajikistan

34,62

25,14

59,76

Syria

20,54

35,79

56,33

Vietnam

13,45

27,65

41,10

Lebanon

18,62

19,39

38,01

Kyrgyzstan

13,50

15,86

29,36

Malaysia

13,08

11,41

24,49

Indonesia

7,27

10,21

17,48

India

4,16

10,90

15,06

Hong Kong

2,13

5,46

7,59



The probability to qualify for the quarter finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the round of 16.


team

QF

Japan

88,62

[88,68]

Iran

83,16

[86,17]

Australia

82,89

[83,45]

Korea Republic

69,52

[69,99]

Qatar

65,60

[68,08]

Uzbekistan

62,12

[66,67]

United Arab Emirates

50,72

[54,01]

Saudi Arabia

44,43

[47,38]

Iraq

38,84

[42,39]

Oman

37,83

[42,04]

China PR

31,24

[40,46]

Jordan

29,99

[37,66]

Palestine

26,22

[34,48]

Bahrain

17,08

[27,01]

Tajikistan

16,30

[27,28]

Syria

16,21

[28,78]

Thailand

12,47

[20,52]

Lebanon

7,78

[20,47]

Vietnam

7,19

[17,49]

Malaysia

4,10

[16,74]

Kyrgyzstan

3,18

[10,83]

India

2,06

[13,68]

Indonesia

1,84

[10,53]

Hong Kong

0,61

[08,04]



The probability to qualify for the semi finals. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the quarter finals.


team

SF

Japan

73,06

[82,44]

Australia

60,10

[72,51]

Iran

48,33

[58,12]

Korea Republic

41,39

[59,54]

Uzbekistan

35,64

[57,37]

Qatar

32,98

[50,27]

Iraq

19,58

[50,41]

Saudi Arabia

19,46

[43,80]

Oman

14,80

[39,12]

United Arab Emirates

11,70

[23,07]

Jordan

9,94

[33,14]

China PR

7,86

[25,16]

Palestine

4,84

[18,46]

Syria

4,82

[29,73]

Bahrain

4,44

[26,00]

Thailand

3,20

[25,66]

Tajikistan

3,08

[18,90]

Vietnam

1,87

[26,01]

Lebanon

1,14

[14,65]

Malaysia

0,59

[14,39]

Kyrgyzstan

0,53

[16,67]

India

0,33

[16,02]

Indonesia

0,30

[16,30]

Hong Kong

0,02

[03,28]



The probability to qualify for the final. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the semi finals.


team

Final

Japan

53,65

[73,43]

Iran

33,49

[69,29]

Australia

28,64

[47,65]

Korea Republic

26,62

[64,32]

Qatar

13,99

[42,42]

Uzbekistan

12,17

[34,15]

Iraq

8,96

[45,76]

Saudi Arabia

5,82

[29,91]

United Arab Emirates

4,02

[34,36]

Oman

3,78

[25,54]

Jordan

2,63

[26,46]

China PR

1,71

[21,76]

Bahrain

1,04

[23,42]

Syria

0,99

[20,54]

Palestine

0,75

[15,50]

Thailand

0,49

[15,31]

Tajikistan

0,45

[14,61]

Vietnam

0,38

[20,32]

Lebanon

0,12

[10,53]

Malaysia

0,12

[20,34]

Kyrgyzstan

0,10

[18,87]

Indonesia

0,06

[20,00]

India

0,02

[06,06]

Hong Kong

0,00

[00,00]



The probability to win the Asian Cup of Nations 2023. In square brackets this chance, given qualification for the final.


team

Winner

Japan

36,36

[67,77]

Iran

17,57

[52,46]

Australia

14,84

[51,82]

Korea Republic

13,11

[49,25]

Qatar

5,69

[40,67]

Uzbekistan

4,43

[36,40]

Iraq

2,52

[28,13]

Saudi Arabia

1,85

[31,79]

Oman

0,99

[26,19]

United Arab Emirates

0,98

[24,38]

Jordan

0,61

[23,19]

China PR

0,35

[20,47]

Syria

0,23

[23,23]

Bahrain

0,16

[15,38]

Palestine

0,13

[17,33]

Tajikistan

0,06

[13,33]

Thailand

0,04

[08,16]

Vietnam

0,04

[10,53]

Kyrgyzstan

0,02

[20,00]

Lebanon

0,01

[08,33]

Malaysia

0,01

[08,33]

Indonesia

0,00

[00,00]

India

0,00

[00,00]

Hong Kong

0,00

[00,00]



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

7 comments:

  1. Bonjour est ce que vous allez mettre les probables r├ęsultats ?? Avec les points fifa ??? Merci

    ReplyDelete
  2. Slight correction: it was initially scheduled in China :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're right. China originally won the bid to host the Asia Cup 2023, but mid 2022 they gave up that right because they (or was it the AFC itself?) deemed a successful organization of such a big tournament not feasible during the COVID-pandemic and China's strict zero-COVID policy at that time.

      Delete
  3. Are you able to run updated simulations for Asian Cup of Nations and African Cup of Nations ahead of Quarter Finals ?

    ReplyDelete
  4. Certainly.

    Especially in Africa it's a tournament sofar with almost too much surprises. It shows in the way that there are 8 different quarterfinalists compared to the previous Africa Cup, only two years ago! Here are the probabilities to reach the semi final, the third place play-off, the final and to become the African champ:

    team -------------------- SF ---------- PO3 ---------- F ---------- Winner
    Cote d'Ivoire ----------- 52,41 ------- 15,08 -------- 37,33 ------ 22,81
    Nigeria ----------------- 64,82 ------- 26,20 -------- 38,62 ------ 20,11
    Mali -------------------- 47,59 ------- 14,59 -------- 33,00 ------ 18,38
    South Africa ------------ 53,56 ------- 28,29 -------- 25,27 ------ 11,49
    Cape Verde Islands ------ 46,44 ------- 26,34 -------- 20,10 ------- 8,88
    Angola ------------------ 35,18 ------- 19,17 -------- 16,01 ------- 6,85
    Congo DR ---------------- 52,83 ------- 36,72 -------- 16,11 ------- 6,27
    Guinea ------------------ 47,17 ------- 33,61 -------- 13,56 ------- 5,21


    In Asia the tournament has developed much more according to expectations. Here are the probabilities to reach the semi final, the final and to become the Asian champ:

    team --------------- SF ------- F --------- Winner
    Japan -------------- 57,79 ---- 42,19 ----- 28,73
    Australia ---------- 54,42 ---- 44,74 ----- 20,67
    Iran --------------- 42,21 ---- 28,59 ----- 17,49
    Korea Republic ----- 45,58 ---- 36,54 ----- 15,62
    Qatar -------------- 51,76 ---- 16,97 ------ 8,54
    Uzbekistan --------- 48,24 ---- 12,25 ------ 5,25
    Jordan ------------- 69,89 ---- 15,43 ------ 3,40
    Tajikistan --------- 30,11 ----- 3,29 ------ 0,30

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This AFCON has been wild. Multiple results with over 60 elo exchanged

      Delete
    2. Yeah, you can also see it in elo's prediction success rate: it's barely more than 50% for last month (50,2%). The lowest prediction success rate I've ever seen for a month with a lot of competitive matches in two continental final tournaments.

      Delete