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Wednesday, December 13, 2023

FIFA ranking: December 2023 final preview

FIFA will publish the December ranking next Thursday December 21st. This final preview contains 11 matches, out of 14 matches played since November 27th: the complete knock-out stage of the Pacific Games 2023 and one friendly. 

I expect both forfeited knock-out matches of the Cook Islands to be included. They apparently had to leave the Solomon Islands after the two matches in the group stage and didn't participate in the play-offs for the 5th place in the competition.


One other friendly Colombia - Mexico is scheduled for coming Saturday and it will be included also. This is how the points and positions of both teams could change:

 

COL

MEX

result

pts

pos

pts

pos

COL win

1655,29

14

1652,70

15

draw

1652,79

15

1655,20

14

MEX win

1650,29

15

1657,70

14


Elo predicts a Colombia win.

Already played

incl.

date

match

tournament

I

We (elo)

We (FIFA)

res and exchanged pts

Y

2023-11-27

TAH - SAM

South Pacific Games 2023

5

93

59

W: 2,032/-2,032

Y

2023-11-27

COK - PNG

South Pacific Games 2023

5

7

42

L: -2,077/2,077

N

2023-11-27

NMA - ASA

South Pacific Games 2023

5

43

W: 0,000/0,000

N

2023-11-27

TGA - TUV

South Pacific Games 2023

5

23

L: 0,000/0,000

Y

2023-11-28

FIJ - SOL

South Pacific Games 2023

5

76

38

L: -1,882/1,882

Y

2023-11-28

NCL - VAN

South Pacific Games 2023

5

63

52

W: 2,406/-2,406

Y

2023-11-30

TGA - ASA

South Pacific Games 2023

5

63

46

W: 2,692/-2,692

Y

2023-11-30

PNG - TAH

South Pacific Games 2023

5

47

50

L: -2,481/2,481

Y

2023-11-30

COK - SAM

South Pacific Games 2023

5

48

51

L: -2,527/2,527

N

2023-11-30

TUV - NMA

South Pacific Games 2023

5

85

W: 0,000/0,000

Y

2023-12-01

VAN - FIJ

South Pacific Games 2023

5

38

50

L: -2,520/2,520

Y

2023-12-02

NCL - SOL

South Pacific Games 2023

5

76

40

PSO-W: 1,756/-0,506

Y

2023-12-10

COL - VEN

Friendly 2023

5

77

69

W: 1,575/-1,575


The NT football year 2023 is concluded with this December ranking. A small recap of the year:


Best movers in positions in 2023: 

Panama +20 to 41

Moldova +19 to 155

Kazakhstan +15 to 100

Guinea-Bissau +15 to 103

Malaysia +15 to 130


Worst movers in positions in 2023:

Costa Rica -20 to 52

Cyprus -15 to 125

Peru -14 to 35


Best movers in points in 2023: 

Panama +84 to 1476

Moldova +64 to 1023

Malaysia +56 to 1123


Worst movers in points in 2023:

Northern Ireland -63 to 1333

Costa Rica -63 to 1438

Bosnia-Herzegovina -60 to 1343


For the December ranking:


No team ends the year on a personal high or low note.


Best movers:

2 - Fiji

1 - Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, New Caledonia, Tahiti, Samoa


Worst movers:

-2 - Vanuatu

-1 - Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Andorra, Macau


Best movers in the top 50:

1 - Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire


Worst movers in the top 50:

-1 - Mexico, Venezuela


Stay safe and healthy everybody !


pos Dec.

team

pts Dec.

+/- pos

+/- pts

1

Argentina

1855,20

0

0

2

France

1845,44

0

0

3

England

1800,05

0

0

4

Belgium

1798,46

0

0

5

Brazil

1784,09

0

0

6

Netherlands

1745,48

0

0

7

Portugal

1745,06

0

0

8

Spain

1732,64

0

0

9

Italy

1718,82

0

0

10

Croatia

1717,57

0

0

11

Uruguay

1666,00

0

0

12

USA

1665,27

0

0

13

Morocco

1661,69

0

0

14

Colombia

1655,29

1

4,09

15

Mexico

1652,70

-1

-2,52

16

Germany

1631,22

0

0

17

Japan

1620,19

0

0

18

Switzerland

1613,44

0

0

19

Denmark

1601,31

0

0

20

Senegal

1594,31

0

0

21

Iran

1565,08

0

0

22

Ukraine

1553,35

0

0

23

Korea Republic

1550,65

0

0

24

Austria

1546,10

0

0

25

Australia

1539,22

0

0

26

Sweden

1530,19

0

0

27

Hungary

1525,13

0

0

28

Tunisia

1523,23

0

0

29

Wales

1521,88

0

0

30

Algeria

1520,26

0

0

31

Poland

1520,24

0

0

32

Ecuador

1519,20

0

0

33

Egypt

1518,91

0

0

34

Serbia

1517,43

0

0

35

Peru

1512,68

0

0

36

Scotland

1506,89

0

0

37

Turkey

1505,28

0

0

38

Russia

1498,84

0

0

39

Czech Republic

1494,04

0

0

40

Chile

1489,82

0

0

41

Panama

1475,62

0

0

42

Nigeria

1474,44

0

0

43

Romania

1472,73

0

0

44

Norway

1472,36

0

0

45

Slovakia

1465,73

0

0

46

Cameroon

1463,06

0

0

47

Greece

1453,95

0

0

48

Canada

1453,76

0

0

49

Cote d'Ivoire

1447,65

1

0

50

Venezuela

1447,20

-1

-1,57

51

Mali

1445,60

0

0

52

Costa Rica

1437,57

0

0

53

Paraguay

1430,73

0

0

54

Slovenia

1427,84

0

0

55

Jamaica

1421,54

0

0

56

Saudi Arabia

1421,06

0

0

57

Burkina Faso

1411,01

0

0

58

Qatar

1407,30

0

0

59

Finland

1401,31

0

0

60

Republic of Ireland

1399,60

0

0

61

Ghana

1384,19

0

0

62

Albania

1382,69

0

0

63

Iraq

1365,98

0

0

64

United Arab Emirates

1364,46

0

0

65

North Macedonia

1362,17

0

0

66

South Africa

1357,08

0

0

67

Congo DR

1356,67

0

0

68

Uzbekistan

1345,26

0

0

69

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1343,32

0

0

70

Montenegro

1342,64

0

0

71

Iceland

1338,39

0

0

72

Northern Ireland

1333,17

0

0

73

Cape Verde Islands

1329,80

0

0

74

Oman

1324,89

0

0

75

Israel

1323,43

0

0

76

Honduras

1313,80

0

0

77

Georgia

1312,45

0

0

78

El Salvador

1306,14

0

0

79

China PR

1299,49

0

0

80

Guinea

1290,01

0

0

81

Bulgaria

1289,90

0

0

82

Gabon

1289,52

0

0

83

Luxembourg

1285,41

0

0

84

Zambia

1284,56

0

0

85

Bolivia

1284,55

0

0

86

Bahrain

1277,29

0

0

87

Jordan

1272,63

0

0

88

Equatorial Guinea

1268,43

0

0

89

Haiti

1262,50

0

0

90

Curacao

1262,48

0

0

91

Syria

1245,27

0

0

92

Uganda

1245,08

0

0

93

Armenia

1237,15

0

0

94

Vietnam

1235,58

0

0

95

Belarus

1232,80

0

0

96

Trinidad and Tobago

1228,05

0

0

97

Benin

1225,10

0

0

98

Kyrgyzstan

1224,14

0

0

99

Palestine

1217,60

0

0

100

Kazakhstan

1215,16

0

0

101

Kosovo

1202,77

0

0

102

India

1200,80

0

0

103

Guinea-Bissau

1197,83

0

0

104

New Zealand

1197,47

0

0

105

Mauritania

1195,25

0

0

106

Tajikistan

1195,07

0

0

107

Lebanon

1192,58

0

0

108

Guatemala

1189,98

0

0

109

Madagascar

1187,63

0

0

110

Kenya

1181,92

0

0

111

Mozambique

1180,71

0

0

112

Congo

1179,80

0

0

113

Thailand

1176,75

0

0

114

Azerbaijan

1174,22

0

0

115

Namibia

1168,38

0

0

116

Korea DPR

1168,12

0

0

117

Angola

1168,05

0

0

118

Togo

1165,74

0

0

119

Comoros

1156,45

0

0

120

Libya

1155,23

0

0

121

Tanzania

1155,19

0

0

122

Estonia

1149,70

0

0

123

Malawi

1149,40

0

0

124

Zimbabwe

1144,56

0

0

125

Cyprus

1143,42

0

0

126

Gambia

1140,06

0

0

127

Sierra Leone

1138,53

0

0

128

Sudan

1128,74

0

0

129

Niger

1127,75

0

0

130

Malaysia

1122,87

0

0

131

Central African Republic

1121,34

0

0

132

Solomon Islands

1113,57

0

1,37

133

Rwanda

1107,04

0

0

134

Nicaragua

1104,26

0

0

135

Faroe Islands

1102,10

0

0

136

Kuwait

1098,07

0

0

137

Latvia

1097,84

0

0

138

Lithuania

1086,93

0

0

139

Burundi

1086,62

0

0

140

Philippines

1086,17

0

0

141

Turkmenistan

1078,25

0

0

142

Antigua and Barbuda

1072,66

0

0

143

Suriname

1071,85

0

0

144

Ethiopia

1068,79

0

0

145

Botswana

1064,50

0

0

146

Indonesia

1064,01

0

0

147

St. Kitts and Nevis

1057,05

0

0

148

Lesotho

1047,27

0

0

149

Eswatini

1045,88

0

0

150

Hong Kong

1042,93

0

0

151

Dominican Republic

1040,77

0

0

152

Yemen

1027,94

0

0

153

Liberia

1024,11

0

0

154

Chinese Taipei

1023,93

0

0

155

Moldova

1022,60

0

0

156

Singapore

1020,50

0

0

157

Guyana

1018,14

0

0

158

Afghanistan

1017,68

0

0

159

New Caledonia

1008,92

1

4,16

160

Puerto Rico

1007,19

-1

0

161

Maldives

1003,48

0

0

162

Myanmar

1000,46

0

0

163

Tahiti

999,48

1

4,51

164

Andorra

998,00

-1

0

165

Papua New Guinea

990,61

0

-0,40

166

South Sudan

989,29

0

0

167

St. Lucia

988,67

0

0

168

Fiji

981,26

2

0,64

169

Cuba

980,65

0

0

170

Vanuatu

980,33

-2

-4,93

171

Bermuda

972,36

0

0

172

Malta

967,29

0

0

173

St. Vincent and the Grenadines

953,47

0

0

174

Grenada

950,99

0

0

175

Nepal

948,05

0

0

176

Montserrat

946,08

0

0

177

Mauritius

944,95

0

0

178

Barbados

943,80

0

0

179

Cambodia

931,47

0

0

180

Dominica

922,25

0

0

181

Chad

920,37

0

0

182

Belize

918,68

0

0

183

Bangladesh

916,75

0

0

184

Bhutan

913,02

0

0

185

Cook Islands

897,30

0

-4,60

186

Samoa

896,78

1

0,50

187

Macau

896,62

-1

0

188

American Samoa

890,97

0

-2,70

189

Laos

889,62

0

0

190

Mongolia

889,16

0

0

191

Sao Tomé e Príncipe

888,94

0

0

192

Djibouti

881,18

0

0

193

Aruba

879,32

0

0

194

Brunei Darussalam

870,63

0

0

195

Pakistan

856,54

0

0

196

Tonga

856,18

0

2,69

197

Cayman Islands

851,19

0

0

198

Somalia

845,66

0

0

199

Seychelles

845,53

0

0

200

Timor-Leste

843,40

0

0

201

Gibraltar

840,80

0

0

202

Bahamas

835,81

0

0

203

Liechtenstein

833,01

0

0

204

Sri Lanka

822,03

0

0

205

Guam

821,91

0

0

206

Turks and Caicos Islands

818,57

0

0

207

British Virgin Islands

807,57

0

0

208

US Virgin Islands

796,78

0

0

209

Anguilla

785,69

0

0

210

San Marino

741,61

0

0



About me:

Software engineer, happily unmarried and non-religious. You won't find me on Twitter or other so called social media. Dutchman, joined the blog in March 2018.

8 comments:

  1. How about that! No need to extra include or exclude matches for this December ranking. The final preview above turned out to be exactly what FIFA published. That's a first for me :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. hello are you going to simulate results and points for the African Cup? Tanks you

    ReplyDelete
  3. How did you come to +12,487966052047 for Congo DR?
    It looks to be a little to much.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The ranking against Gabon 18/6-2023 would be 1351,110429478 instead of 1338,610429478
    This gives Congo DR 11,20069507 ranking instead of 11,4979556 ranking for this match.
    The right addition should therefore be 12,20273946, would I mean.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Sorry fellow. That’s gives all too much to the other site.
    The regulation must be between 12,475502 and 12,486303 to give Congo DR a current ranking of 1356,66. Even in the first case, it doesn’t bring other countries away from the right ranking.
    First of all, I wonder, why FIFA changes the results so long time after the games has been played.
    Secondly, why doesn’t FIFA just change the original game calculation, although it affects those countries the involved lands have played against in the meanwhile?
    It is so little different, but it is more correct; as it would have been so, in the case FIFA immediately had discovered the need to change the result.

    ReplyDelete
  6. When FIFA afterwards find a reason to alter the result of a match in a later ranking, it's often because they received information (most of the time a -belated- official match report) after they have calculated and published the ranking the match was originally included in. Most common reasons to alter a match result are:
    - a team fielded an ineligible player and the other team got the match awarded;
    - the referee turned out to be not FIFA approved;
    - there were more than the maximum 6 allowed substitutes per team in a friendly;
    - a match was abandoned after f.i. crowd trouble and a decision about the outcome could only be made later on, so the match was included in a later ranking.

    The way to proceed in these cases was always that FIFA used the FIFA-points of each involved team at the moment the decision to alter the match result was taken, and calculated the points to exchange between the teams, given the adapted match result. A correction term was then calculated as the difference between the points exchanged for the match in the original ranking and the new calculated points exchanged after the decision to alter the match result. This calculated correction term was applied on each team's FIFA-points right before the calculation of the included matches in the current ranking starts.

    However, since March this year in the few cases that instigated a correction to be applied, the correction term was always slightly different than when this protocol was followed to the letter. At the appropriate places I have described that in the comment section of the post of the final preview of such a ranking. I can't think of the method they have adapted apparently as their new protocol.

    Anyway, to match their published ranking for each team on two decimals, I still calculate the correction term the way I was used to and adapt an extra correction (most of the time a few hundredths to a few tenths of a point) to land on exactly their -on 2 decimals rounded- published points total.

    The effect is that now and then I have a few teams with a (maximum) 0.01 difference compared to their published points. In this December ranking it were Uruguay, Congo DR and Mozambique.

    Why doesn't FIFA just change the original game calculation? Because they don't want to recalculate (and republish) in the meantime published rankings again.
    What I don't understand in their recalculation protocol is why they don't use the starting points of the involved teams at the moment the match was originally played and only alter the match result in the recalculation.

    I would love to read FIFA's explanation of their recalculation protocol and their answers to these little questions, but I've given up mailing them about it, because I never receive an answer anyway.

    So, my readers, if any of you has some deeper thoughts or suggestions about this topic... I'm curious :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. The cases Benin-Rwanda and Congo DR-Mauritania are very similar.
    In both cases the original regulation is about +/-3,5 ranking.
    All 4 countries play 1 match in between the FIFA regulations.
    Although in the later case the regulation is very near the fully 12,50 adjustments.
    In the first case the adjustments are over 0,4 from that. More than 3%.
    It can only be the match in between, that decide how much?
    Congo DR and Mauritania both win against equal opponents.
    Benin draw and Rwanda lose to stronger opponents.

    ReplyDelete